Tropical Storms

User specific pangaean ministrations. …

I can't fault the Meteorological Office for their tropical storm data archives. Of course the stuff is also readily available elsewhere. Still…

This is the stuff for 2008 so far in the North West Pcific:

North-West Pacific

01W 13-16 January 35/- knots
01W only briefly attained tropical storm status (according to JTWC) and no forecasts were verified.

Neoguri (02W) 14-19 April 95/80 knots
There was a left of track bias in early forecasts which resulted in track forecast errors above last season's average from T+48 onwards. However, skill scores against CLIPER were good.

Rammasun (03W) 07-13 May 135/105 knots
Track forecast errors were near to last season's average at short lead times, but were large at longer lead times. This was due to early forecasts failing to predict the acceleration of the typhoon to the north-east as it started extra-tropical transition. Hence, there was a slow bias at longer lead times. However, skill scores against CLIPER were high.

Matmo (04W) 14-16 May 40/45 knots
Matmo only briefly reached tropical storm status and no forecasts were verified.

Halong (05W) 15-20 May 70/60 knots
Track forecast errors were near to last season's average except at 48 hours lead time, which was higher. There was a slight slow and left of track bias. Skill scores against CLIPER were high, particularly at longer lead times.

Nakri (06W) 27 May-03 June 125/105 knots
The first few forecasts for this typhoon predicted recurvature too early, which resulted in huge errors at longer lead times. However, later forecasts were much better. This resulted in track errors near to or below last season's average at lead times of 72 hours or shorter. The model showed skill over CLIPER.

Fengshen (07W) 18-26 June 95/90 knots
Some early forecasts incorrectly predicted that Fengshen would turn northwards before reaching the Philippines. However, having crossed the eastern side of the islands the forecasts were much better. Most predicted landfall near to or just to the east of Hong Kong. Only long lead time track forecast errors were above last season's average. Skill scores were positive.

Kalmaegi (08W) 14-20 July 90/75 knots
Track forecast errors were just above and below last season's average at various lead times. Skill scores against CLIPER were positive. There was a right-of-track bias in forecasts overall.

Fung-wong (09W) 24-29 July 95/75 knots
Track forecast errors were below last season's average for this storm. Skill scores against CLIPER were positive.

Kammuri (10W) 04-07 August 50/50 knots
Kammuri was fairly short-lived, but track errors were small and skill scores high.

Phanfone (-) 10-11 August 25/40 knots
Phanfone was short-lived and no forecasts verified.

11W 13-14 August 30/30 knots
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.

Vongfong (12W) 14-17 August 50/40 knots
The track of this short-lived storm was well forecast.

Nuri (13W) 17-22 August 95/75 knots
Early forecasts stalled the storm and turned it towards Taiwan instead of showing landfall over China. Hence, longer lead time errors were large. Short period forecasts were good.

14W 26-28 August 35/30 knots
No forecasts were verified for this storm.

Sinlaku (15W) 08-20 September 125/90 knots
Track forecast errors were low for this typhoon. The slow movement near Taiwan and the sharp recurvature were well predicted, although there was a slow bias in forecasts. Skill scores against CLIPER were high.

16W 10-11 September 35/30 knots
16W was briefly a tropical storm (according to JTWC) and just one forecast was verified.

17W 14/09/08 30 knots
There are no verification statistics or forecast plot for this tropical cyclone since its 1-minute averaged winds did not reach tropical storm strength.

Hagupit (18W) 18-24 September 120/90 knots
Track errors were low for this storm and skill scores high. There was a slight slow and left-of-track bias.

Jangmi (19W) 23-30 September 145/115 knots
Early forecasts had a left-of-track bias, but later forecasts predicted recurvature well. Track forecast errors were large due to the early bias.

Mekkhala (20W) 28-30 September 55/50 knots
Mekkhala was briefly a tropical storm and no forecasts were verified.

Higos (21W) 29 September-04 October 45/40 knots
Track forecast errors were above last season's average for this storm. There was a slow bias in forecasts.

22W 14-15 October 35/- knots
22W was only briefly a tropical storm and no 24-hour forecasts were verified.

Bavi (23W) 18-20 October 45/45 knots
Bavi only briefly attained tropical storm status and just one forecast was verified.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s