When contemporary physics issues information about El Nino and that sort of stuff, they are talking about AVERAGE temperatures of about half a degree Centigrade.
Here is something a little more useful. …
I have always thought that they are linked to what is called the North Atlantic Oscillation. A made up parameter these days but originally based on the findings of a 19th Century meteorologist who noticed that there was a cycle where the average air pressure over one part of the Asian Pacific was equal and opposite to the air pressure averages in the Indian Ocean.
I forget which parts of which ocean but it is all online for the looking.
Anyway, this all became known as the El Nino effect.
When it was noticed there is also a reverse to this, it became known as the Southern Oscillation or "the" "El Nino/Southern Oscillation". The other side of the effect is now known as La Nina.
There is also an inter El Nino/La Nina effect where nether pressure cycle is noticeably marked.
There is even a work in progress looking at how the snow on the Himalayas affects the cycle in the waters of the Arabian Sea.
What has this to do with volcanoes?
I have been looking at the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) for a couple of years (maybe three (not sure)) and have never seen this before.
When the pressure in the North Atlantic is not markedly high or low (when both anticyclonic and cyclonic pressures vary little from each other) then we will get a quite large volcanic eruption. But the pressure in the North Atlantic has been quite different one type of air mass from another.
With this is the king pin, I think: A Blocking High that had pressure of 1040 mb which is as high as it goes most of the time. And a Scandinavian Low that was about 980 mb at the time of these quakes.
The pressure in the Low has dropped to 955 mb. Maybe I was missing something. But the stuff going on in the North Pacific is interesting:
Those were the last 4 North Pacific charts called GFS runs.
The following are for the same period over the North Atlantic:
And this is what it lead to:
Colombia volcano claims 10 lives
BBC News, UK
At least 10 people died after a volcano erupted in a remote region of southern Colombia, the government has confirmed. Interior minister Fabio Valencia said the eruption of Nevado del Huila triggered two avalanches on Thursday. About 12,000 people living in the area, some 240km (150 miles) south of Bogota, have been evacuated.
Volcano erupts in Nicaragua
The Associated Press
MANAGUA, Nicaragua (AP) — Nicaragua's San Cristobal volcano is spewing ash and gas, provoking a shudder of small earthquakes. The Nicaraguan Institute of Territorial Studies says the volcano has been erupting for two days, causing quakes of up to magnitude-4. The institute says Saturday's eruptions pose no imminent threat to the surrounding population.
A GFS run is a collection of different computer resolved weather models that are put together form all the data from all the weather stations that they take reading from and averaged out. They sort of "self correct" each other.
A synoptic chart is then drawn from them based on what they turn up plus what the crew doing the meteorological shift at the time thinks is more likely to happen based on previous experience of such set-ups.
You could say that that second stage is computed data plus good old fashioned weather lore.
None of which helps those who need it most.
You might want to bear that in mind if the financial crisis allows you to. Personally, when shit happens like that, I feel like a clever, sterile mutant.
But what can I do? What else can I do?
If I was a team and I was on duty, I might just be looking at the right damned ocean, in the right damned time, to draw the right damned conclusion.