The start of the affair

Let's see what conspiracies conspire to confound me. …

I thought you might enjoy a look at the loop that Unisys servers provide gratis. They are a combination of satellite and meteorologist's data.

The main thrust is a patch of green over California; a Low system entering the USA from the Pacific. And coincidentally a couple of similar pulses leaving.

You will have to grab it fast if you want to see the actual loop as this blog isn't going to cook those eggs for you.

What it reminded me of was the tides that circulate around Britain and Ireland.

In the British Isles, an high tide sweeps around the coast from (where do you start with a circle?) the North of Scotland (Orkney, say) and at the same time there is an high tide at Liverpool and at Dover.

Also at the same time, there is a low tide at Hull, Bristol and most of the west coast of Ireland.

An hour later it will be so many miles further around the coast so that in 6 hours Orkney, Liverpool and Dover will be at low tide. Which is nothing like what is happening in the USA with these weather systems.

But it doesn't half look like it, though.

Here is a depiction of the "covalent tidal lines" in the major oceans. In other words, lines where all the different tide levels are at any particular moment:
http://w3.salemstate.edu/~lhanson/gls214/images2/gls214_worldamph.png

At the places where the tidal lines meet, the tides revolve in a manner similar to the hours of the day about the North and South Poles. Not that they could be noticed, even in a mirror flat calm. Deep water tides are unnoticeable, the water isn't that attracted to the moon that the lower levels are not squeezed away.

It's only near the shore that shallow seas exhibit what we think of as tidal "range" (large up and down movement.)

As of the Canadian N Hemisphere Chart from Midnight 26/27th November 08 there is an intense low in the middle of the Pacific at about 45 degrees north. There appears to be something about that sweet spot that collects Lows in the same way as that patch of the NW Atlantic off Newfoundland up as fat as Iceland.

That same chart shows them settling out of the mix as they go into the Arctic from East of Greenland. The last time I remember seeing it split into 5 Lows doing that, there was an earthquake up there. (Damned if it didn't happen twice. Once over Siberia, once over Canada.) I don't think they were that enormous but they were large enough.

I have the idea that a deep Low over Hawaii like this signals a volcanic episode of some power. Certainly if an High develops alongside it. They tend to throw the debris into the Arctic and that supplies the nutriments that once made the Newfoundland fishing banks so rich.

I've just noticed an high developing on the Asian side of the Pacific the same latitude almost. I don't think it will amount to much. I have to keep reminding myself which winds clockwise and which anticlockwise. It means the difference between the winds going north or south.

I've got this temporal problem that blows my head. I get these marvellous insights and forget how they work all the time. And never know what to do about it. If it is Alzheimer's disease the answer is nothing. So I shall just have to forget it.

That shouldn't be too hard.

*******

Here is the Unisys map at the same time as above for yesterday:

Usually when a tropical storm dies we get a pair of similar quakes occurring consecutively. Something like this for that Bay of Bengal storm:

2008/11/28
4.8 M. 03:12 Tonga region.
5.2 M. 01:34 Tonga region.

It never grew large enough to claim a pair of mag 5s or greater. Now it looks due to continue its course through the Arabian sea, the other side of India. If it is going to grow large it needs to tell us about it with some seriously spaced out large mag quakes. A Super Typhoon for example will need a spread of 15 hours between large magnitude quakes. ANY large magnitude quakes. ALL large magnitude quakes.

And to get to the top score, it needs to go to something like 18 hours or more.

Basically it runs 1 category above Hurricane force (Saffir Simpson scale) for every 2 hours apart after some 15 hours. Which means a gap of 12 hours will only get a storm force on the Beaufort Scale. (I forget what I worked out. But it is something like that.)

What gives the fellows in Hawaii their info is upper atmosphere wind speeds. I don't even know how to read an upper atmosphere chart. Pity really. I want to be taken seriously but it just goes out my head as soon as I can cram a bit in.

You might want to watch this space:
http://www.stormbanner.com/

Or this one:
http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

*******

Unobserved by yours truly the server that I was getting my Atlantic Chart from was non functional at the start of this spell. It has since been taken offline but not before I got three or four snaps of the same chart.

Serves me right for not looking.

Here is the the Unisys chart for last evening:

6.0 M. 2008/11/29 @ 05:59 Fiji region. I DID get a crick in my shoulder for that one. I still have it. Not a 6 M. worth though, at any time.

The Atlantic chart has changed radically from what it was last time, there was a serious quake in that area. Time for a new tropical storm I think.


I couldn't let this one go:
5.3 M. 2008/11/29 @ 07:09 Southern Alaska. (Where's that then?)

This chart predates it somewhat. Note the points of entry and the egress.



I'm still waiting for the 19:00 stuff to be posted on the NEIC lists. But this:
4.8 M. 2008/11/29 @ 16:42 Coquimbo, Chile.
…will be where the green stuff in the Unisys chart touched the Gulf States, I imagine (Texas, Louisiana & etc.)

36.9 North. 121.6 West. Central California looks favourite.
*******

Apart from a 4.9 and three 4.8s, there hasn't been a large quake since 6 am this morning. That is 13 hours allowing 2 for the seismologists to analyse the ones from 7 pm.

I wish I was more sure of myself.

No need to worry.

I must be side kicked:
4.1 M. 2008/11/29 @ 21:14. 36.0 North. 117.3 West. Central California.

I'm good I am.

OOH!
And 15 hours from a 5 Mag. and counting. So a severe tropical storm is on the cards if I could rule out those 4 high magnitude 4's.

*******

OK. A bit of explanation. First off we are due a large storm and the latest stuff I posted only makes me more sure -not absolutely certain however.

It's just two massively unsettled spells and one of them at this time of phase the other more likely in the Atlantic but out of season. And something I didn't mention, severe frosts and mists in the UK. Those are sure signs of big storms.

Right that's the backdrop. This how storms dissipate. They disentangle themselves. You can see all the lows fall out of a deep one as the thing moves to Europe. If they go up through to the Arctic there is time to see them rotate about each other.

And seismism works the same way. The seismic stations usually have seismometers angled to take note of waves moving in three planes. Which means a rotational force is occurring, just as with Low pressure dissipation.

As with dissipating Lows, the earthquakes are no longer of high magnitude severity but they are in the same place -roughly the area covered by the centre of a Low on a synoptic chart.

Still with me?

When seismic storms separate out they do so as similar fractions of the alternative magnitude. (Instead of being a 7.3 M. they become a 3.5 and a 3.4 say or something similar.) But so close together they appear almost consecutive.

They may appear, in fact, as "elongations" in a synoptic chart. An elongation is a ridge of high pressure or a trough of low pressure. ("Spurs" to a ring of concentric isobars.)

That's all there is to it. I presumed it would be California because this storm is building. The seismic Lows are meeting up and forming a more intense system just like Lows do as they "deepen".

And California was high on the list. That's all there was to it.

And extra terrestrial help so to speak.

*******

5.3 M. 2008/11/30 @ 00:39 Pagan Region, N Marianas.
6.0 M. 2008/11/28 @ 08:51 S Sumatra, Indonesia.

So that's 18 hours. What did I say that would make? Cat 2 or 3 was it. I think maybe a 3 or 4. Pity about those lesser quakes. Still, can't have everything.

*******

That soylent green is now leaving at Cape Hatteras and Fox Islands is starting to heat up. We will have a few more -and larger quakes there I believe.

An intense Low in the North Pacific is still active above Hawaii or is it another one? They are sweeping through at a fair rate of knots if so.

*******

Well the Low has crossed the continent now and this is the last frame of the sequence:

It doesn't show up clearly on my clips but if you are quick you can see the real thing for a few more hours. It runs off the edge at all the coastal states from south of Florida up into Canada. Looks like very little is happening in the Aleutians, though.

There are another 5 days to go with this spell and then it goes to something similar to the previous one. So all in all things are getting interesting.

I'm going to get a decent keyboard on Monday for one thing. I'm fed up with this thing.

*******

Well the foggy weather eased back to clear anticyclonic and a very cold frosty night last night. So when I checked the weather sites just now, I was expecting a tropical storm somewhere. (East Arabian sea actually, as the last one looked ready to cross India and kick off again.)

Which was stymied by this:
2008/11/30
5.0 M. @ 12:05. 19.7 N. 145.4 E. Maug Ilands region, N. Mariana Isles.
5.3 M. @ 00:39. 18.0 N. 146.9 E. Pagan region, N. Mariana Isles.
Meaningless.

12 hours apart and a 4.5 M. in Fiji in between.

I wonder what is going on. Probably the intense Lows in the higher latitudes. I think this sort of thing has happened bnefore. Pity I can't remember what happened next.

*******

A touch of snow in leaving. I wonder how closely related misty weather is to snowfall in the UK.

Overcast and gloomy now. And the last of the green stuff is leaving the USA, where it shows every sign of pausing for breath off Canada.

There is a strong anticyclone over the Azores and one over Greenland. Just a little gap between them the Low can get through when it gets stronger.

Well that is where it is going. Where did it come from, when… 6 days ago?

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