Why can’t earthquakes be forecast?

So recently that UK citizens can still see it online, the BBC showed a programme dealing with the difficulties of forecasting earthquakes. …


One thing they forgort to mention is highly entrenched views in a country self satisfied with its fat and fat headed with its self satisfied:

Originally posted by Gavin Jones, Reuters:

Italy muzzled scientist who foresaw quake
06 Apr 2009 11:22:00 GMT

ROME, April 6 (Reuters) – An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

The first tremors in the region were felt in mid-January and continued at regular intervals, creating mounting alarm in the medieval city, about 100 km (60 miles) east of Rome.

Vans with loudspeakers had driven around the town a month ago telling locals to evacuate their houses after seismologist Gioacchino Giuliani predicted a large quake was on the way, prompting the mayor's anger.

Giuliani, who based his forecast on concentrations of radon gas around seismically active areas, was reported to police for "spreading alarm" and was forced to remove his findings from the Internet.

Italy's Civil Protection agency held a meeting of the Major Risks Committee, grouping scientists charged with assessing such risks, in L'Aquila on March 31 to reassure the townspeople.

"The tremors being felt by the population are part of a typical sequence … (which is) absolutely normal in a seismic area like the one around L'Aquila," the civil protection agency said in a statement on the eve of that meeting.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention".

As the media asked questions about the authorities' alleged failure to safeguard the population ahead of the quake, the head of the National Geophysics Institute dismissed Giuliani's predictions.

"Every time there is an earthquake there are people who claim to have predicted it," he said. "As far as I know nobody predicted this earthquake with precision. It is not possible to predict earthquakes."

Enzo Boschi said the real problem for Italy was a long-standing failure to take proper precautions despite a history of tragic quakes.

"We have earthquakes but then we forget and do nothing. It's not in our culture to take precautions or build in an appropriate way in areas where there could be strong earthquakes," he said.

Bearing in mind that Reuters along with several well known news agencies had the depth of coverage during the Bush regime of snail shshsh-t

An Italian scientist predicted a major earthquake around L'Aquila weeks before disaster struck the city on Monday, killing dozens of people but was reported to authorities for spreading panic among the population.

It isn't the full story by any means. But it is interesting though that along with the regular Jewish press, the BBC in all its glory hasn't mentioned the above. Or perhaps I blinked when they did.

First off the government wouldn't bother with such kooks any more that I have any followers. Next, the "Internet" by design is too big a place for anyone to order anything removed from it. Once something is online no matter what regrets an author haas abot it, it is world property and almost impossible to remove.

I did notice that all the trolls on Usenet at sci.geo.earthquakes had very little to say against the publisher -a mere seismologist, Gioacchino Giuliani who could not get the date very clearly nor the exact location:

However as the Mayor did get involved:

Originally posted by The Fort Lauderdale Science News Examiner:

The town's mayor was angered by Giuliani's warnings to the public by driving around town in vans with loudspeakers telling locals of the impending earthquake. Giuliani based his forecast on radon gas concentrations around seismically active areas, but the authorities forced Giuliani to remove his findings from the Internet.

To reassure the local population, Italy's Civil Protection agency held a Major Risks Committee meeting with scientist that assess risks such as those of earthquakes. On the eve of the meeting they concluded that the tremors that had been felt in the area since mid-January were a normal part of a typical sequence.

"It is useful to underline that it is not in any way possible to predict an earthquake," it said, adding that the agency saw no reason for alarm but was nonetheless effecting "continuous monitoring and attention".- Italy's Civil Protection agency

After the earthquake took place and the media questioned why there hadn't been any precautions put in place, Giuliani's predictions were dismissed by the head of the National Geophysics Institute, Enzo Boschi. Instead, Boschi said that the real problem was that Italy has had a history of not taking proper precautions even with it's history of earthquakes.

He also said that there are many people who claim to have predicted earthquakes, but that none has done it with precision as far as he knows.

That last bit is very definitely the bums rush.

Contemproary science wants a window for the event to occur in that consists of a time frame within a useful period and a location as close as a map reference to the epicentre.

Which is fair enough. There is nothing radical in that except only God has been able to make such preduictions up to now. And even then He wasn't that definite.

According to what I have seen on news bulletins the damage effect is very similar to the plague of acid rain that seemed particularly hard on temperate western forests in the days before paraquat was outlawed. (And shortly afterwards when large combines with a lot to be concerned about jumped on the Glowballs wagon.)

In fact if I didn't know better I'd say that the cause is wave trains of seismic sound frequencies. Which might just be possible to use as a forecasting technique is developed for the insight. (Wait… I am saying they are wave trains.)

It is contempt errory science and town ~councils that still believe in massive underground heat plumes. Arses!

Hard to see why every other building is shaken down whilst the next but one each time is spared other than that big head here is correct and all else fails the Turing test:

The Turing test demonstrates intelligence.
A judge engages in a conversation with someone who knows what he is talking about and with a bunch of idiots.

All parties are isolated.

If the judge can't tell the fools from the insightful, he aught to stick to practicing law or being the fat mayor of an Italian town and national disaster.

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3 thoughts on “Why can’t earthquakes be forecast?

  1. I was looking at the sci.geo.earthquakes page for the experts to make a declaration about their rights and of the wrongs of Italian seismologists.I'd have thought they'd be beating the drum about the way he missed their window by a country mile. But no, so far the posts have confined themselves to mere link pasting.Smart movers.*******Grab it whilst you can: 6.9 2009/04/07 04:23 KURIL ISLANDS 6.3 2009/04/06 01:32 CENTRAL ITALY 6.3 2009/04/04 05:31 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION 6.4 2009/04/01 03:54 P.N.G. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.phpI'll post some images later.And just for the show, the Kuril Island ones are about 80 degrees from the storm centre here. And more than likely spot on as was. (You can get the archives from here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html I'd be interested in any comments about storms coming ashore or leaving the land on the above dates. I'd like to see if any other places are similarly linked.Have fun y'all.

  2. Ive been having leg cramps maybe from before the last spell (14:32 or something on April 2nd.) So since there have been no tornadoes reported I have to suspect that the cause of the cramps, their attacks all in the same part of the leg and feet but of both legs (more to the left than the other though) I am assuming they are related to the local weather which is affecting the seismic activity undr Italy:4.0 Mag. 2009 April 10th. 03:22. 42.5 N. 13.4 E. Central Italy

  3. 07Apr2009 04:23:33.4 46.1N 151.6E 50 MS=7.0 M*GSR KURIL ISLANDS 055807Apr2009 04:23:20.5 44.1N 153.8E 24 mb=6.6 M*ROM EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS 051107Apr2009 04:23:32.6 46.1N 151.6E 40 Mw=7.0 M*EMS KURIL ISLANDS 050907Apr2009 04:23:34.5 46.1N 151.4E 39 M =7.0 M*NEI KURIL ISLANDS 0443Missed that one. Very unusual. Still it's all grist to the mill.

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