Mt Redoubt.

I invented a code to help me tie in the behaviour of weather to the times of the lunar phases of the moon.

The only trouble is that at the moment it is unusable. Here is why. …


Here's a problem with statistics that better brains than mine should be able to chew up and spit out:

The so called ocean anomalies such as El Nino are stupid averages made up of the temperatures taken over a huge sweep on the Pacific and parts of the Indian Oceans from November to February or some such.

The average only has to leave the norm by less than two thirds of a degree centigrade to be classed as an anomaly. That is plainly the most ridiculous thing in earth science since the seismologist invented windows for forecasts.

What the idea was based on was that the pressure in the Indian Ocean rises on average as the pressure in the corresponding region of the Pacific drops and vice versa.

This was the original anomaly. Since then, there has been an idea floating around that the North Pacific Basin harmonises with the North Atlantic to do something similar.

Now look at what happens in a short term: a spell, or lunar phase. These things are something like the period of an hurricane -some 5 to 6 days, with a bit of changeover either side.

Sometimes two or three phases for one reason or another run along similar patterns -as the physics of the planet control it. But most spells are just under a week in length.

But the point I was going to make is that when a cyclone pushes through, temperatures in the area rise significantly more than 0.6 degrees. But once the storm has passed and the fall out, rain, has returned to the sea the temperature is a lot less.

What happens in a cyclone is not so much that warm water rises in warm air as that cold air falls so fast that it builds a huge "sheer". This cold air envelopes the warm air that has to rise in its place.

This is the physics of vortices. This is why water rotates in a bottle or a basin. It is the fastest way to dissipate. In these cases the force is gravity. But air as it falls, warms. And warm air rises, so an hopeless tangle of fluids is set up in the system.

Water so clean it is able to “super-cool” contacts pollution -maybe salt water, maybe hail. It freezes on contact and immediately releases more heat. This might dissipate as electricity if it can't escape quickly enough.

(OK nobody knows but it would please me a lot to find out I am right about that. (Hope I’m not dead by then.) I am not saying it does but the genesis of lightning has yet to be explained any other way.)

And that is about it as far as I can guess to the reactions of cyclones in the air. An F1 hurricane can knock the code back about an hour for the duration of the storm. An F2 = 2 hours, and F3 = 3 hours and so on.

Only a rule of thumb of course. A considerable amount is switched around with seismic activity. Again it is in the same scale ranges. A high 6M. is about the same as a low F1 a mid 7 magnitude something similar to an F2 and so on.

All I have to do is draw inferences from the past and whacko, I am there. Still I have two computers now so I should be able to stay online for the next … who am I kidding.

If Satan wants to spoil the earth, he has free rein and an host of gibbering idiots to help him.

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4 thoughts on “Mt Redoubt.

  1. When Mt Redoubt started behaving like the nearby Mt St Helens did some 29 years ago, it occurred to me that it might be worth looking at the lunar spells leading up to the eruption and comparing those with the present runs for May:http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?content=archive http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services…There appears to be no similarities in them:Here are the dates of the phases leading up to the eruptions of Mt Lassen in 1915, Mt St Helens in 1980 and this present series affecting Mt Redoubt:Date Time Code 2009 4 MAR. 7 46 111 MAR. 2 38 218 MAR. 17 47 526 MAR. 16 6 42 APR. 14 34 39 APR. 14 56 317 APR. 13 36 225 APR. 3 23 31 MAY 20 44 29 MAY 4 1 417 MAY 7 26 124 MAY 12 11 031 MAY 3 22 37 JUNE 18 12 015 JUNE 22 15 4 1980 23 Mar 12 31 031 Mar 15 14 38 Apr 12 6 015 Apr 3 46 322 Apr 2 59 230 Apr 7 35 17 May 20 51 214 May 12 0 021 May 19 16 1 1915 23 Mar 22 48 431 Mar 5 37 56 Apr 20 12 214 Apr 11 35 522 Apr 15 39 329 Apr 14 19 26 May 5 22 514 May 3 31 322 May 4 49 428 May 21 33 3To get the code all I did was divide the hour of the time of the phase by 6. The remainder (the last column) thus gives its position to the Greenwich meridian at either noon, dawn, dusk or midnight.For a focal refernce the longitude of the Mississippi is more or less 6 hours west of Greenwich, Mt Everest is some 6 hours east and Fiji in on the other side of the world.Furthermore the code indicates in the absence of major earthquakes, hurricanes or tornado cells, the weather for the UK (YMWV.)0 is low misty cool weather. 1 is wet weather. 2 and the sky is turning striated. 3 is thundery. 4 tends to vulcanicity. 5 is fine and the system repeats for the other 18 hours.

  2. It would be nice if Opera kept this table in this form:http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services/phases-moon NEW MOON FIRST QUARTER FULL MOON LAST QUARTER d h m d h m d h m d h m JAN. 4 11 56 JAN. 11 3 27 JAN. 18 2 46JAN. 26 7 55 FEB. 2 23 13 FEB. 9 14 49 FEB. 16 21 37FEB. 25 1 35 MAR. 4 7 46 MAR. 11 2 38 MAR. 18 17 47 MAR. 26 16 06 APR. 2 14 34 APR. 9 14 56 APR. 17 13 36 APR. 25 3 23 MAY 1 20 44 MAY 9 4 01 MAY 17 7 26MAY 24 12 11 MAY 31 3 22 JUNE 7 18 12 JUNE 15 22 15JUNE 22 19 35 JUNE 29 11 28 JULY 7 9 21 JULY 15 9 53 JULY 22 2 35 JULY 28 22 00 AUG. 6 0 55 AUG. 13 18 55 AUG. 20 10 02 AUG. 27 11 42 SEPT. 4 16 03 SEPT. 12 2 16SEPT. 18 18 44 SEPT. 26 4 50 OCT. 4 6 10 OCT. 11 8 56 OCT. 18 5 33 OCT. 26 0 42 NOV. 2 19 14 NOV. 9 15 56 NOV. 16 19 14 NOV. 24 21 39 DEC. 2 7 30 DEC. 9 0 13 DEC. 16 12 02 DEC. 24 17 36 DEC. 31 19 13I suppose it would be a bit much to ask.Nevertheless, next week looks interesting, from the 9th, as does the 22nd on.

  3. Things are back to normal in the North Atlantic I imagine. I haven't seen a weather chart in days but just before looking I venture to suggest that at least one type of system is back in the black.I think that the Lows will be low and the Highs high but at least one of them will be back to normal for certain. Why?Originally posted by AlJazeera:

    At least 11 people have been killed after a typhoon caused landslides and swamped farmland in the north east of Philippines.Nine other people were still missing on Sunday after piles of mud and debris swept into a coastal village in Maganelles, burying 12 houses, officials said.Troops, police and villagers used shovels and their hands to search for missing people feared buried, Bernardo Alejandro, a regional disaster official, told the Associated Press news agency.Nine bodies, including those of two children, have been recovered.About 20 typhoons lash the country each year, mostly after June.The current storm struck in the middle of the Philippine summer, an unusual occurrence that may have been caused by changing weather patterns caused by global warming, Alejandro said.

    http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2009/05/200953112334410844.htmlI rather think it more likely due to the run of the lunar phases -but who is going to believe me?

  4. Highs of 102 even 1017 are low 1002millibars is very low for an high pressure system.Lows of 990 are more common than the 1006 1017 millibars that they have been and still are in places on the chart. But more positive "anomaly" stuff is now present:The Azores High of 1039mb is going to build for instance.The time of the phase is an awkward one:1st May 2009: quarter moon at 20:44And the spell runs for another few days until:9th May 2009: 04:01. (Which is a return to vulcanicity once more.)(Or not, as the case may be.)

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