17 May 07:26

Back to forecasting the easy ones at last. …

Second quarter on the 17th May (2009) at 07:26.

This is a classic wet spell for Britain and traditionally flood plain flooding in the South of France and Northwest Italy.

The only salvation will come at someone else's expense if there are major natural disasters such as tropical cyclones and major magnitude earthquakes.

The boat anchor shaped occlusions through southern England and central Ireland along with the low High pressure areas elsewhere on the chart, shout volcanic activity.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

So maybe it won't be so wet after all.

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12 thoughts on “17 May 07:26

  1. Originally posted by Africa News:

    Fears are rife that Mount Nyamulagira in the Democratic Republic of Congo may soon erupt. This comes on the heels of a significant increased volcanic activity around Goma in the east of the country.In 2002, half of the city of Goma (16 miles from the mountain) was destroyed after the mountain erupted.One of the scientists, Dieudonne Wafula, is quoted to have said if the mountain erupted, there would, however, not be any instant danger to Goma. He nonetheless added that some rural roads could be cut off.Reports say the volcanoes loom over Goma, spewing smoke and steam even when they are not considered to be an immediate threat. Residents say by day, the air in the city is thick with volcanic dust. By night, residents can often see the red glow of burning lava trickling out of the summit of the nearest volcano, Mount Nyiragongo. Wafula is also quoted as saying significantly increased temperatures had been recorded around Mount Nyiragongo recently and a larger than usual cloud of volcanic dust was being thrown into the skies. However, he said, it was Mount Nyamulagira that was likely to erupt.

    http://www.africanews.com/site/DR_Congo_Volcanic_eruption_feared/list_messages/24774Originally posted by IRIS:

    Friday 25th January, 2002US Agency for International Development Report. Total Affected: Approximately 350,000 (U.N.) Deaths: Approximately 147 (U.N. and USAID/OFDA field reports) Displaced People: Approximately 250,000 (USAID/OFDA field reports)A survey by relief agencies determined that there were approximately 229,000 people in Goma on January 23. Approximately one-third of the group moved west in DRC toward Sake. Approximately two-thirds moved east to Gisenyi in Rwanda.Nyiragongo is one of Africa's most notable volcanoes. A previous lava lake in the deep summit crater of Nyiragongo, first reported by G.A. Von Gotzen on 11 June 1894, drained suddenly through radial fissures on 10 January 1977, killing about 70 people.Lava lake activity resumed at Nyiragongo in June 1982, but had ceased by early 1983.The lava lake at Nyiragongo was again activated after an eruption that began in June 1994.(GVP). Nyiragongo will continue to hold fascination for volcanologists. (From http://www.volcanolive.com, Copyright John Seach)

    http://www.iris.edu/news/events/congo/congo.htm

  2. The three occlusions in parallel indicate a triplicate of large earthquakes. Such occurrences may also be noticed with earthquake swarms lots of tremors in the same region.Earthquake swarms are associated with volcanoes.Or not, as the case may be.Or not as in this case I think:3.9 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.0 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.6 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.2 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.2 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 5.2 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 5.9 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 5.0 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.4 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.4 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.3 SOUTHERN ALASKA 3.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 6.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 3.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.4 NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 3.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.9 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.6 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.7 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.7 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.9 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 15th and 16th May 2009http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html

  3. 137 degrees from the storm centre off the UK. So that doesn't fit any pattern I can cram it into.However what is of interest -though I don't know the import, is that the Kodiak swarm is the centre of an arc that touches no land in the Atlantic, Indian or Pacific Ocean but where it comes ashore in Colombia, Spain & through S Europe, Tibet and New Guinea, it skirts a range of mountains in each case.Whilst the 80 degree arc from the Low west of Ireland does skirt the Rockies several miles offshore to a certain extent. Where it does cross land it cuts across mountain ranges and island arcs at nearly 90 degrees. Or would that be more like 80?If I was a Linux wonk I'd be able to use the Apophenia programme to search or create a data base that would tell me all I need to know about such apophenia.Originally posted by Wikipedia:

    Originally described in relation to the distortion of reality present in psychosis, it has become more widely used to describe this tendency in healthy individuals.In the case of autistic spectrum disorders, individuals may be aware of patterns that are unnoticed by normal people.

    Some time ago I was accused of having this problem. But I see it as a malady that applies just as readily to my detractors; in that having never witnessed the inner working of the earth, they have allowed known patterns to misdirect their researches.Their thrust is taken from some research of a certain Mohorovicic early in another century. And this has formed the total basis of all facts concerning earthquakes ever since.I doubt that much has been discovered of any use -nor will it in academic circles, with that misdirection unexpurgated.

  4. Parallel Conclusions.Occluded fronts out at sea mean a set of large magnitude earthquakes is pending. And maybe not just in one place. I have no idea if we are in for more tremors and I have no ideas where these perhaps sets of triplicates will occur.Actually they seemed to have occurred in a number of places as befits the motility of weather -which is like the wind more often than not in blowing where it listeth.What I do know is worth knowing, if you are willing to stick with it.When a pair of parallel fronts like these arrive, they tend to cancel out any meteorological convergence. This is the death of storms. So the storm that is related to them can be backtracked.HA!That sorts it all out.Now I can remember why I was confident that I had arrived at the conclusions I arrived at in order to be able to state categorically, that storms or anticyclones leaving the Carolinas tend to occur in tandem with earthquakes in the middle of the Aleutian archipelago.Now I know the meaning of the saying: "I have forgotten more than you know." It means you won't have a chance of knowing what I keep forgetting to mention. Maybe I aught to write it all down somewhere…. Oh, wait…

  5. Parallel Conclusions.Occluded fronts out at sea mean a set of large magnitude earthquakes is pending. And maybe not just in one place. I have no idea if we are in for more tremors and I have no ideas where these perhaps sets of triplicates will occur.Actually they seemed to have occurred in a number of places as befits the motility of weather -which is like the wind more often than not in blowing where it listeth.What I do know is worth knowing, if you are willing to stick with it.When a pair of parallel fronts like these arrive, they tend to cancel out any meteorological convergence. This is the death of storms. So the storm that is related to them can be backtracked.HA!That sorts it all out.Now I can remember why I was confident that I had arrived at the conclusions I arrived at in order to be able to state categorically, that storms or anticyclones leaving the Carolinas tend to occur in tandem with earthquakes in the middle of the Aleutian archipelago.Now I know the meaning of the saying: "I have forgotten more than you know." It means you won't have a chance of knowing what I keep forgetting to mention. Maybe I aught to write it all down somewhere…. Oh, wait…

  6. Now a bit of diagnolysis from your 'umble servant:19/05/2009 5.6 WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA4.9 WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA3.6 CENTRAL ALASKA2.5 NORTHERN ALASKA4.6 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA4.8 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA3.2 CENTRAL ALASKA3.1 ALASKA PENINSULA3.4 CENTRAL ALASKA5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGE4.9 WESTERN SAUDI ARABIA3.6 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA2.6 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA2.8 PUERTO RICO REGION5 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE2.9 ALASKA PENINSULA3.4 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA18/05/2009 3 CENTRAL ALASKA3.3 PUERTO RICO REGION2.7 CENTRAL ALASKA5 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS5.1 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.9 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.3.3 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO2.9 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA3.5 PUERTO RICO REGION4.9 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU5.8 NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN PERUNotice the pairs? (…ish?)They mean no con…something or other today thank you very much. Vergence. Sorry about that I keep forgetting.I aught to… ..never mind.

  7. More of the same now until the middle of June.I wonder how this run will effect my fans from the Americas and in the far east:17th May 07:2624th May 12:11 31st May 03:22 7th June 18:12 15th June 22:15Guess I'll never know.The British weather is dull and overcast during lunar phases that start at any hour divisible by 6 with little or no minutes remaining. (barring large storms and earthquakes, albeit inclined to them and in due season by June (24th May too.)For something that comes out with an half past one remainder -such as in this spell (07:26) the weather is a lot more warm and with considerably more fall out.California of course has the complete opposite. The same holds true for Australia.03:00 like it's counterpart 09:00 (etc.) is a wet one that is even warmer with much more humidity. We have already had some thunder in this spell so common in May and August when the sun and moon reach certain positions vis a vis the equator.That one on the 31st May, will have it's share too unless the hurricane season intervenes. It will be interesting to note how far the relevant storms will throw out the codes.The 7th of June is a revisitation to the next spell, once more a division of 6. Too late to measure coolness but the degree of overcast and the height (misty for instance will forecast hurricanes) will be interesting.Moreover the number of minutes makes it once more an unstable offering. I hate those 20 pasts. (and the 20 to's too.)So, well, there you go. Lawrence Jenkins will have his day. Despite his silly ideas about climate disturbances.http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/41b67fa93e29c1a5/9166113a1f4c0026?tvc=1&q=%22Lawrence+Jenkins%22+hurricane#9166113a1f4c0026Errrrm..yes, well when I said "the MIDDLE of June", what I really meant was this is then repeated… in a manner of speaking:JUNE 22 19 35 JUNE 29 11 28 JULY 7 9 21 JULY 15 9 53 http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services/phases-moon

  8. Opera is unable to pick up the latest image I posted there at the moment. But heere is yesterday's early morning chart: I'll post the other later today if possible. It shows that the low is moving north. Ordinarily the system would go to Norway if it didn't fill before then, in which case itr would go to the southern Baltic states.However there is a negative trend over the North Atlantic at the moment with all the Low pressure systems fairly full and all the High pressure systems also quite slack.That means this particular low will go north into the Arctic directly. It will eventually split into three and go ashore in Northern Siberia.Or not, as the case may be.As there is no sign of a cyclone brewing in the tropics or in fact no major storm system anywhere, the likely reaction to all this negativity is a couple or three major 6 Magnitude quakes or just a run of 5 M's along with some more activity in volcanoes the world over.And yet more rain for Paul Morgan as he watches Shrewsbury lose on Saturday.

  9. Lake Wind AdvisoryIssued At: Thursday, 21 May 2009, 12:59 PM CDTExpires At: Thursday, 21 May 2009, 7:00 PM CDT…A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA… .BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE TO CALERA TO ALICEVILLE.WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER ACROSS AREA LAKES AND WATERWAYS. …LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING… A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA LAKES AND WATERWAYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAS AFFECTED WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE TO CALERA TO ALICEVILLE.Ah well, better late than never:http://www.fox10tv.com/dpp/weather/Lake_Wind_Advisory_issued_May_21_2009_at_1259PM_CDT_expiring_May_21_2009_at_700PM_CDTIssued_by_Weather_Forecast_Offi_03188809

  10. And finally: It appears I was wrong about the low which is now combining with the Baltic one and seems set to brush Scotland unless that deepening Low off Newfoundland can drag it in.There is an High over Greenland so with a batch of freezing "lake effect" due in North America, that may be possible. It's all very cryptic at the moment though, with small highs and lows detonating all over the place.My neck and shoulder were cricking yesterday and no earthquakes showed up. No idea why. Maybe it's the pills I'm on.:irked: OOH!!! Is that TWO "boat anchors" I see in there?Yep… and … WHITE?? mice?

  11. So this spell is over and you have all had an opportunity to see what happens when the Weatherlawyer code give a lot of raain to the UK.Perhaps I aught to go and find the regions where there was no rain so everyone can see just exactly how their mileage varied.Perhaps my true fans will sort that out for themselves. If you want to be a player in this rewriting of history you have to get on board now before I glob it all.

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