24th May 12:11

The sun dance. …


The air above Britain will be just as wet as the last spell but its tendency to fall will not be as severe. Misty weather is the norm for spells at 12 and 6 of the clock.

The proof is in the pudding, I say. And tomorrow, starting today (the day before the lunar phase given above) will be a heavy sponge, soggy and cold. The effect is rather like the Levant winds. High ice and low mist. Not much wind though, hence a tendency to breed hurricanes in the North Atlantic.

We could very well see one though it's a little early. There is a lot of synergy in the system. If there is one, it will probably be in the Central Pacific at this time of year but a small one could hit Honduras / Belize.

Edit:

So far so good. I prefer to be wrong when I'd rather have sun. But there is something decidedly odd about this lot:

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11 thoughts on “24th May 12:11

  1. What is going on? They appear to be in the wrong order.Traditionally when two lows meet at the southern point of Greenland in that Newfoundland, Greenland, Britain triangle, they join forces not separate. They build not attenuate.I think the Low to the right in the bottom picture, heading back to the shores of Europe, was originally bound there a few days back but was attracted back to the newer Low now building.Pity I missed the three other charts for each of the days. They are put up after each model run is corrected by the Met. Office in Britain. One for 00:00, one for 00:06, one for 12:00 and one for 18:00. (GMT.)

  2. HEAVY RAINFALL WARNINGHEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY AT MOST PLACES WITH ISOLATED EXTREMELY HEAVY FALLS (more than 25 CM) IS LIKELY OVER GANGETIC WEST BENGAL AND NORTH COASTAL ORISSA AND ISOLATED HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY OVER NORTHEASTERN STATES.ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLANDS AND LAKSHADWEEP.CYCLONE WARNINGGALE WIND SPEED REACHING 65-75 KMPH GUSTING TO 85 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL COAST FROM TODAY, THE 24TH MAY 2009 EVENING.SQUALLY WINDS SPEED REACHING 45-55 KMPH GUSTING TO 65 KMPH ARE LIKELY TO COMMENCE ALONG AND OFF NORTH ORISSA COASTS FROM TODAY, THE 24TH MAY EVENING.SEA CONDITION WILL BE HIGH ALONG AND OFF WEST BENGAL COAST AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH ALONG AND OFF ORISSA COAST.FISHERMEN ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE INTO THE SEA ALONG AND OFF THESE COASTS.So this is it. Nice weather for us is bad weather for those who can afford it least:http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/in/

  3. WAITING FOR MONSOON HERE: While Kerala had a taste of the monsoon on Saturday, Delhi was still reeling under a heat wave. Here is a young woman on a motorbike trying her best to stay cool.I wonder what she does when it gets hot.Gloves, shawl, face mask and hoodie. She'd be shot on sight in London's Tube.I wonder if she is an electrician.

  4. This is from a Usenet group I post to contemporary with this blog:Originally posted by Weatherlawer et al:

    On May 25, 10:24 am, co…@cj4386.demon.co.uk (colin may) wrote:
    > On Monday, in article <77utsoF1jh6b…@mid.individual.net>
    > t3…@hotmail.com "Phil Layton" wrote:
    > > "Col" <reddwar…@btinternet.com> wrote in message
    > >
    > > > "Phil Layton" <t3…@hotmail.com> wrote in message
    > > >
    >
    > > >> I take it the Storm now in the Channel and just about to come inland on
    > > >> the SE coast is not the main event. TAFs are now showing TSRA from
    > > >> 08Z for Heathrow and Gatwick, much earlier than previous ones.
    >
    > > >> From the forecasts, I get the feeling that it was going to happen further
    > > >> West (in SW and CEN areas) with the SE just getting is own storms due
    > > >> to the high temperatures later in the day.
    >
    > > > Are the echoes over Cambridgeshire examples of 'anaprop'?
    > > > The way they appear and disappear then re-appear just
    > > > doesn't look right to me.
    >
    > > That's what I reckon Col. They have the typical scatter returns.(plus there
    > > are no reports!)
    >
    > All times GMT.
    >
    > Here in North Kent (Boughton-under-Blean) West of Canterbury. Light rain
    > (moderate at times) started at 0825 and is still light rain falling at 0915.
    >
    > The manual gauges have collected .4, .3 and .3mm up to 09:00.

    According to RSMC-Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi, the tropical cyclone producing the weather effect here (UK) was due to broach (roll ashore) at midnight 25th May 2009.

    Originally posted by RSMC. Tropical Cyclones, New Delhi:

    Tropical cyclone advisory.Tropcal storm ‘Aila’ advisory number five issued at 03:00 UTC 25th may 2009.The cyclonic storm “Aila” over northwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centred at 00:00 UTC of today 25th May 2009 near. 20.00 N. 88.00 E. 140 km east of Paradip (42976), 180 km south of Sagar Island (42903) and 300 km south west of Khepupara (42984).The system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross west Bengal coast near 88.00 E. (near Sagar Island) today, 25th May 2009 between 09:00 and 12:00 UTC.

    [These things tend to dissipate not intensify as they hit land.]

    Satellite imagery indicates bending features system. Current intensity of the system is t2.5 associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over the Bay of Bengal north of lat. 14.50 N. and long. 83.00 E. to 92.50 E.Sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 40 knots gusting to 50 knots. State of the sea is high to very high around the system centre. Estimated central pressure is about 980hpa.

    [An hpa is an Hectopaschal or a millibar of pressure.]

    Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is between 10-15 knots around the system centre. The past 24 hours shear tendency is negative to the north of the system centre. The system lies close to the upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 21.00 N. in association with the anticyclonic circulation over Myanmar and adjoining north Bay of Bengal located to the east-north east of the system centre.There is an upper tropospheric trough in westerlies west to the system. Sea surface temperatures are warmer over north & central Bay of Bengal. Majority of nwp models also suggest intensification of the system and landfall over west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast near longitude 88.00 E.Storm surge of about 2-3 meters above astronomical tide is likely to inundate coastal areas of west Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coast at the time of landfall.Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a near northerly direction and cross west Bengal-Bangladesh coast near latitude 88.00 E. (near Sagar Island) between 09:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC; 25th May 2009.Based on latest analysis with numerical weather prediction (nwp) models and other conventional techniques, estimated future track and intensity of the system are given in the table below:Date/Time(UTC)Position (lat. 0N/long. 0E)Sustained maximum surface wind speed (KNOTS)25.05.2009/000020.0/88.040 gusting to 5025.05.2009/060021.0/88.050 gusting to 6025.05.2009/120022.0/88.0 (over land)50gusting to 6025.05.2009/180023.0/88.0 (over land)30 gusting to 40>>26.05.2009/000023.5/88.5 (over land)<<<<<<<<<<<25 gusting to 35<<<

    [Gusts of 60 knots are not an example of a storm capable of maintaining a sump dragging away the weather of the true value of good old Weatherlawyer's code.]

    There was a 6.1 Mag. earthquake on the 24th May 2009. Kermadec Islands. Immediately followed by a series of off switches on the US latest quakes list.

    The 6.1 indicates the end of a storm system from the last spell.
    http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services/phases-moon

    Double quakes indicate no further tropical storms or that extant ones will end soon:Originally posted by http://www.usno.navy.mil/USNO/astronomical-applications/data-services/phases-moon:

    25/05/2009 2.7 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING2.9 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING2.6 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING2.9 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING 2.6 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING2.5 YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK, WYOMING 24/05/2009 3.4. PUERTO RICO REGION3.4. PUERTO RICO REGION2.9. PUERTO RICO REGION2.5. PUERTO RICO REGION 3.0. PUERTO RICO REGION2.9. PUERTO RICO REGION 5.1. KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION5.3. KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION2.6. OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA2.7. OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 6.1. KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION(One more feature of the code I'm afraid. You'd have to do some work of your own to get an explanation. Maybe it's in the bottom of a locked filing cabinet stuck in a disused lavatory with a sign on the door saying 'Beware of the Leopard'.", deep in the bowels of the Met Office Library, Exit Door. Just go down to the display department in the cellar, with a torch.(Watch out for the stairs.))

    About Google Groups and other Usenet newsreaders:

    With Usenet the servers are conventionally set up to indicate previous posts with this chevron: >

    A single chevron at the front of a line indicates the post was the previous one. Two chevrons mean the post before that and three, the one before that.

    It is to allow people to come to a thread and make sense of who said what in it. Also by convention, the last poster writes his comment underneath the others.

    That way the posts are arranged first post first and the next replies in order down.

    Conventionally a later poster clips away any previous parts of the posts not necessary for others to read. They can get the gist of what he is talking about and follow the rest of the story from earlier posts if he has missed anything.

    I tend to leave all the posts in when I reply to a thread for the first time. That way all the text is enmeshed in my first post and can only be deleted by me.

    (And the servers. It's not a design of usenet that messages be deleted, though newsfeeds (newsreaders) tend to not carry them past so many weeks. They are available on Google Groups indefinitely.)
    http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/7ed562c384f0204c/2be20f481ea34711#2be20f481ea34711

  5. Sorry about all that. I find it all interesting but am not very good at showing it all off.By the way there is a thread from a similarly timed lunar phase down in the archives somewhere. about 5 minutes to midnight or so, 11:56 I think.

  6. Some more excerpts from the Lunar Code:When a major storm breaks out of the sea and decelerates the components of the Low in the system filter out and go their separate ways.Almost immediately after this occurs, a large earthquake or a series of them "happen".You can call this coincidence if you like.And just as coincidentally, these quakes will be in the range of Mag 6 and higher with their epicentres some 80 degrees from the place the storm broached.So that's West Ireland (no, yes, really) Iceland, a diagonal through the middle of Greenland, the extreme north of Canada and somewhere in the Middle of the Aleutians all sleeping out in the cold for safety.In warmer climes, the east of Spain to the shores of the Cameroons and on along the coast of Africa to Namibia where the arc moves east of the mountains to the Brakenbergs in South Africa, off shore at Port Elizabeth and that's it till it skirts Tasmania.My money would be on the Loyalty Islands and Vanuatu. They are always good to go.And that ladies and gentlemen is the "window" of opportunity as far as is practicable in thaumaturgy at the moment.Seasoned morons, brainwashed to the diet of Seismology will require a much smaller window and very small genius to jump through it for them.

  7. One more?The modern method of forecasting the weather using computer models remains successful when a tropical storm intrudes on the Lunar Code and makes me look foolish.This is because their data is based on world wide weather station reports and thus takes into account the knock on effects of all storms.They fall down as badly as my methods do when there is a large earthquake involved in the data.

  8. As the ferocity of the tropical storm, so the magnitude of the earthquakes.So they won't get out of the mid fives IMTO. They should appear in pairs though. And if they occur in triplicates, that means another storm is on its way.Or not as the case may be.

  9. We are having derecho type weater insofar as the UK gets them. What it is in my area at least is that long fish shaped clouds grow black overhaed and pour not very much water down on us.It could be much worse. It's the type of stuff that can send flash floods but so far it has been light showers similar to April Showers.There were a number of tornado reports in the US yesterday:1820 14 NNW HORACE GREELEY KS 3866 10190 LAW ENFORCMENT REPORTED LANDSPOUT TORNADO WHICH LASTED APPROXIMATELY 3 TO 4 MINUTES. (GLD)1820 3 N STRATTON KIT CARSON CO 3935 10260 LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED LANDSPOUT TORNADO NORTH OF STRATTON. (GLD)http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/yesterday.htmlYou can click through the archive from the arrows on the top of the map. We normally get this kind of weather for Lunar phases of 02:30 and similar.The precipitation is about what I'd have expected only from light drizzle in a spell timed at 12:11. So I don't know what to make of it.120 people died in Bangladesh in a 4 meter high storm surge and several died in PNG in a mudslide. Lots and lots of pairs of earthquakes including the two in North Korea everyone says is from a nuclear device.Look at the list of double and triple quakes on here and the huge list of tremor swarms:http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/redpuma/redpuma_ami_list.html

  10. And finally, there were a number of tornadoes in the USA this spell:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/090524_rpts.htmlI have a feeling there will be a few more reported there today also. I have no idea if other countries had them, though Google Alerts to them haven't mentioned any.Note these reports are merely preliminary. It takes ages for researchers to conclude the actual likelihood of events reported.There again maybe some went unseen and thus unreported too.

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