Blind Guides

There are two types of weather books.

There is the type with the pretty pictures for those who don't know any better or can't look out the window. And then there is the heavy going type, lots of heavy type too, for those who don't know any worse. …


And then there is the stuff of nonsense. Here is where I come in.
If you want to know what's going on in the big blue wonder and are afraid to ask because big words send you to sleep, pontificate no longer, my largesse is (ostensibly) yours.

Ignore stuff aimed at the general public. There is little enough known for the experts to write about without some journalist oik toning it all down for you.

Hear ye thysse:
“The Protean Sky

The sky presents an eternally unfolding spectacle. One moment puffs of cumulus cloud skitter across it, the next, a billowing thunder head perhaps.”

Or perhaps not. Billowing is what clouds are usually doing any time you care to look up and can't see the sky. Or can you? If you can see clouds, then you can see the sky. But if they are in the sky and covering the sky….?

Hmmm..
It goes on:

“Over the past four centuries, scientists have done much to explain the mechanics underlying this ceaseless pageant”

Unfortunately….
…not enough.

“Today virtually every significant process and trend within the earth's shroud of air is monitored very closely.”

If you can count “satellites orbiting some 22,000 miles above the earth” as “closely” I suppose. But what is to be gained by mere monitoring?

In the 1960's before the era of satellites and whilst grate British Verriewers were being treated to the Green Screen Routine after Berlue Peter in the 1970's, the weather forecast was pretty much as good as it is now -sans earthquake activity and negative SSP anomalies but for just two or thee days.

Today at no inconsiderabubble, we can push the boat out to 5 or 7 days -the whole 9 yards of lunar super-fluidity as one might say. (There aught to be more of us but some (who shall be nameless due to lack of space) are afraid to get their feet wet.)

So what have we not learned from the days when a reliable forecast covered the time from early this evening to late tomorrow night?

Well to start with, the forecast for 5 days is a bit hit and miss. Something akin to what the third day adventist would get 9 times out of 10, (once in a while) in the good old days.
And the reason it isn't right on, right now, is?

Well, we don't know.
We don't know what causes weather for one thing.
We don't know how water behaves for another.
And we don't have a method for working out what it is going to do from what it is that causes weather.
Because we don't know what causes weather.

We have to be guided by what it was doing the last time we looked. And that is a form of necromancy. Summoning the dead.

Well not quite but it is bordering on the reaches of climatology.

Take cyclogenesis for one thing.
It means the gathering of storms. And they do “gather” just like boils gather or fill with serum. You can watch them developing out in the Atlantic. Hex, it is a slow process just like watching an illness develop you can follow it in a daily paper.

You can hear it on the radio if you know where the BBC is hiding the Shipping Outcast these days. And you can still find vestiges on the TV if you look carefully or set the video fast enough to record it.

Now with the tubes and the nest of pipes and stuff you can even watch uncloggenesis as the weather that was several weeks ago drifts over North America like the succubus of a world wide filtration plant.

A storm from the north Pacific will hit the shoals of Alaska or points south and the residue will become fall out headed for San Francisco. What stays up will go over the Rockies becoming, temporarily, an High Pressure system that drops down precipitously, devoid of precipitation and fill in in the Mid West as a not all that low but rather extensive Low.

Then it may disburse all over the USA and Canada. It will generally leave Canada at Newfoundland and the USA at South Carolina or some such Southron stayette.

Now hear this. Thissa hyear is the point.

When the weather leaves the States at Virginia or where ever I just sayed, there is enough genesisys to provide a little something as a going away present for the Aleutians, whose company was so helpful in the earlier direction finding enwettification.

And get this:
The power involved can be monitored and assigned significant weather importunative funny numbers. I suggest we call the next one a weather load. After its discoverer Weatherloder. (Modesty forbids.) We can invent funny important looking algebra for it later.

Well you've had Richardson Numbers for decades and where has it got you?

Here is the value for a flat calm off Cape Hatteras: 0 = 1016 mb if I guess correctly.

Since the scales for wind and seismic events follow more or less the same degree of logarithmic progression, I see no reason for not following it directly until more understanding throws light on what really happens.

And we can see how many millibars the system gained to do the dirty by the time a noticeable value goes off at Fox or Rat Islands.

Well it has got to be worth looking at, hasn't it?

A force 4 or 5 would be a Mag 4 or 5 would it not = let's see…
I can't remember ever paying any attention to the pressures in the system so far from home, but lets say a Low with 990 mb?

Any takers?
No looking.
Just guess and say what you like, before you check it out.

+++++++

Orphan an untoward, I was dreaming the other day about the way that the tides perform a figure eight in their daily machinations between high and low and the amphidromic points in the ocean.

I couldn't quite picture it but it seemed rational to me that a tide coming in would leave a trail at the eastern edge of the North Sea where all tides run to.

The circulating pattern would take it out either west or east and back to the centre point again about which point it would recircle and then head back out to the coast of Britain, Ireland or Norway -wherever.

I just looked at the experiment done with a satellite tracking device fitted to a buoy in the 1970's, it was called “Ring Bob” probably from the pattern it drew on the graph paper as it eddied back towards the USA from the Gulf Stream. (This was a Wood's Hole experiment in the 1970's (1977 I think.) it looks just like a drawing of a “Slinky” spring toy. Regular as anything.)

Mid April till the end of August, 1977. It's unbelievable. I'll see if I can find a link.

I swear I started writing this other idea about a week ago completely in ignorance of the above, though I did intend to look up a lot of crap for it.

Then my disputer buggered up on me once again. Bloody thing! Now I have a Linux distro with KDE (Kubuntu) and I can't play any of my CDs but at least it won't let me open Encyclpoedia Britannicus. So it's not all bad.

The point that crossed my mind is that the swell isn't a daily load dragged around the coast by the power of the moon as such but a series of figure eights each bearing on their own in their impact on the ports displayed on charts.

I wonder if this interface overlapping would be the reason for the different heights in the main?

If they were following an harmonic frequency that would see them over the sea to Skye and out further except that the land got in the way, that too would explain a build up but not a regulocity of eloping. Just a back thrust at the nether regis.

It wouldn't explain why Liverpool an inland port is timed to Dun Laoghaire (near Dublin) though, nor how the more open channel is the one with the smaller “range”.

Except of course the Irish Sea has its own Maelstroms. And is a gyre in itself to boot….
Interesting.
Is there a double anphidromawotsit off Washington and British Colombia? If so I'd say it was inconclusive but entertaining circumnaviagional evadence.

There is one off Cuba isn't there? Hmmm..
Maybe not then.

Ah well, back to the drawing; bored.

No link or timwe to make a more thorough search. Better get on with my life instead, eh?

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s