26 Jun 11:30

If the damned North Atlantic Oscillation doesn't get itself sorted out. …

How do you get the spell check to work on this thing? I had it working on a Linux distro I managed to find out how to download Opera to. Or was it Firefox?

Ah that's it…
My memory isn't what it never really was but I would have liked it to be.
Speaking of which:

There have been plenty of phases in the past that have occurred at around half past eleven (and as far as the permutations go; five thirty.)

But I can't remember anything about them.
11:00 and the rest of them, are fine spells when the pressure over Greenland is anticyclonic. The present spell:
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/19-june-2010-04-29
…. has a vaguely anticyclonic set up there, mostly – it rained here yesterday morning (Thurdsay 24th June) and, IMO, Celia hit shallows on the 120th longitude.

It was doing 100 knots; I don't know what happened yesterday but now it up to 130 kt – a phenomenal speed for winds at sea level. (The molecules in the dynamics would under contemporary understanding, have to push and exponentially large amount of atmosphere out of the way to get up to that speed. And that dichotomy/paradox is impossible.)

Prepostal edit:
I just found out what happened yesterday:

CELIA
Actual measurements

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (knots)
2010-06-19 09:00 12.4N 98.0W 040
2010-06-19 12:30 12.8N 97.0W 030
2010-06-19 15:00 12.5N 97.1W 035
2010-06-20 09:00 11.6N 100.3W 065
2010-06-20 15:00 11.6N 100.9W 070
2010-06-21 09:00 11.6N 103.3W 080
2010-06-21 15:00 11.7N 103.9W 090
2010-06-22 09:00 11.8N 106.3W 085
2010-06-22 15:00 11.9N 107.3W 080
2010-06-23 09:00 12.3N 110.4W 100
2010-06-23 15:00 12.4N 111.5W 090
2010-06-24 09:00 12.8N 114.7W 115
2010-06-24 15:00 13.1N 115.9W 140
2010-06-25 09:00 14.2N 119.0W 115
2010-06-25 15:00 13.8N 118.1W 130

Forecasts:
2010-06-26 00:00 14.5N 119.5W 115
2010-06-26 12:00 15.3N 121.2W 095
2010-06-27 00:00 15.9N 122.6W 070
2010-06-27 12:00 16.2N 123.7W 055
2010-06-28 12:00 16.5N 125.0W 035
2010-06-29 12:00 16.5N 126.0W 030
2010-06-30 12:00 16.5N 127.0W 025

http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Data/CELIA-10.html [close edit]

The browser is a crap medium for posting charts but a copy and paste to a text file of some sort should clarify matters.

Or you could just go to the site and see for yourself. I had to copy the damned thing for fear of losing the mutt. But I digress into my own dichotomies….

When a cyclone hits shallows it diverges to some extent, the extent mirroring the equal but opposite divergence underground:

And we got rain in the middle of a drought.

It doesn't take the Brain of Britain to draw the obvious conlusion. (Marshalled by nit-wits in the CRU and MetO of course, even the Brain of Britain would get stymied were it not for the fact I can see right through the stupid ********.)

It's going to be a long run:

19 Jun 04:29
26 Jun 11:30
4 Jul 14:35
11 Jul 19:40
18 Jul 10:10
26 Jul 01:36
3 Aug 04:59
10 Aug 03:08

http://aa.usno.navy.mil/cgi-bin/aa_moonphases.pl?year=2010&ZZZ=END

11 and 26 July should be wet spells (for my region; YMWV) however these two are at times that are just on the cusp of …
ah the hell with it, the spell for the 26th is a shocker with flooding washing more people into the sea.
Unless the damned North Atlantic Oscillation doesn't get itself sorted. And quite frankly, I haven't got a clue.

But if they do all run through, the saving grace for Britain will be a mother of a thunderstorm spell (not exactly Floridan standards but for Britain, fun) from the 10th August.

But one more day in the life of the spell from the 19th June has yet to run. And I am waiting for that magic Mag 7+ earthquake. (Which should stymie the forecasts aboute Darby and Celia.)

Here is my alpoogy to those having fidiclutfy flowling ymess ays:
Toghu!

Advertisements

12 thoughts on “26 Jun 11:30

  1. Originally posted by CTV News:

    Teck Resources Ltd. says an explosion in a coal dryer at its Greenhills coal mine in British Columbia will "certainly" impact coal production there, but it's too early to tell how long a shutdown will last.The explosion occurred about eight kilometres from the town of Elkford, B.C., around 3:15 p.m. Monday. Cladding on the six-storey dryer unit has been blown from the walls. All seven employees at the dryer have been accounted for and are safe. Four employees were treated for minor smoke inhalation.

    http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100629/bc_coal_mine_explosion_100629/20100629?hub=BritishColumbiaHomeNot quite a coal mine methane blast. The other stuff in Africa seems to be due to mismangement (in illegal mines) too.Alex is now an hurricane in a connurbation that was focussed over the Isthsmus of Panama until recently. (The other stuff is all marked down and written off.)Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Originally posted by =NEIC:

    2010/06/29

    5.5 M. 11:48. KURIL ISLANDS

    5.8 M. 01:40. BIO-BIO, CHILE

    http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.html

    There are 12 hours between these two, too:5.0 M. 2010/06/30 03:02 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.0 M. 2010/06/29 15:33 TONGA REGION.Then this:6.5 M. 2010/06/30 04:31 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS.

  2. This is interesting: However the spell is not due to end until Sunday.Stay tuned.According to my own peculiar weatherlore, it should be sunny -which it is. And the nights cool (for a British summer) -which it isn't.Not sultry day or night -which it isn't.(Also, I've seen some more mares tails….indicative of storms.)For the outcome to be a severe quake -or the other variation, severe volcanic eruption the weather forecasts have to fail in some major way.And for it to be a tropical storm event the contemporary stuff has to be spot on with more of the same in Britain.Which the above low over Britain precludes.Interesting.

  3. Originally posted by Airirang:

    Heavy rainfall and floods in eastern parts of Romania have claimed at least 21 lives in the past week, and drove some 2-thousand people out of their homes.According to officials in Bucharest on Tuesday, the majority of deaths are believed to have occurred from drowning when the victims were swept away by high waters.In the counties of Botosani and Suceava, over 2-thousand residents have reportedly abandoned their flooded homes as access to electricity has also become scarce.

    http://www.arirang.co.kr/Index.asp?sys_lang=EngOriginally posted by Associated Press:

    DES MOINES, Iowa: A levee is again threatened by a rising Des Moines River —already swollen with snowmelt when rain began to fall this month. Saylorville Lake, north of Des Moines, is designed to protect the city from flooding, is close to its maximum storage — and forecast to overtop a spillway on Wednesday…

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gx7VBbXFdlUJlOsKeTokWpnkiR8wD9GL93381 Originally posted by AFP:

    China:Flood-related disasters claimed the lives of 235 people this month.In Jiangxi province a major dyke that broke last week when the river running through Fuzhou city burst its banks, forcing the evacuation of 1.3 million people.Days of torrential rain in parts of eastern, central and southern China have affected 68.7 million people in 22 regions.Rain continued to fall over the weekend on the hard-hit provinces and regions of Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, as well as in Jiangxi.By Sunday, the water level of major rivers in Jiangxi and Hunan provinces was receding as the rain eased off.At least 235 people have died and 109 missing in flooding and landslides since June 13, according to the civil affairs ministry.Water Resources Minister Chen Lei warned regional officials on Saturday that their jobs were at stake if they failed to protect people from the effects of the deluge.The Southern Daily said over 600 millimetres (24 inches) of rain had fallen in Guangdong's Huilai county over a six-hour period on Friday, a 500-year record.This month's floods are among the worst in southern China since 1998, when over 3,600 people were killed and more than 20 million displaced, Xinhua said.At least 379 people have died in flooding in China this year, the government said, putting economic losses at 82.4 billion yuan (12.1 billion dollars).

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jbSv6wq5OiyIF1NzJTIYTfAdCVxw

  4. 30th6.2 07:22 OAXACA, MEXICO6.3 04:31 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS5.0 03:02 NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE29th Half a day earlier: 5.0 15:33 TONGA REGIONI wonder what would ensue if the large gap was bookended by Mag sixes.Another noteworthy point is the serious quakes following those long periods are generally some 3 hours difference.3 hours is a Beaufort force or a Saffir Simpson F-grade

  5. http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/Gif/atl.latest.gifAlex has just hit land. So the ensuing quakes will be over 6M and some 80 degrees from the crumple zone.The arc hits the penninsula of Kamchatka; the date-line on the equator; Western Samoa; Straights of Magellan; Sierra Leone; SW Spain; E coast of Norway and Svarlbad.But the glue had melted on the electical tape I was using to pad my globe from the point of my dividers (and I was too lazy to get another piece.)So the thing was sliding all over the gulf of Mexico. Rather like the US Government hounding BP over its own faults as well as BP's and the earth's.Ah, dearie, dearie me.

  6. Originally posted by The Associated Press:

    Authorities say a U.S. military aircraft made an emergency landing in western Germany, slightly injuring one of the two pilots aboard.Local police spokeswoman Petra Volk said the RC 12 turboprop came down in a field Wednesday afternoon just before reaching the U.S. military's Wiesbaden Army Airfield.

    http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5g5mdKf28P4eeusAz7ygcoFxsvNowD9GLMEL00 Originally posted by 9wsyr:

    A small plane en route from Hamilton to Arizona was involved in a deadly crash Thursday morning outside of Kansas City. We're told the two people on board were killed. The single-engine Beechcraft plane left Central New York Wednesday, and spent the night in the Kansas City area before taking off early Thursday morning. The plane spent about 35 minutes in the air before crashing just before 8am.

    Originally posted by BBC:

    At least 20 people have been killed in a week of torrential rains and flooding in Romania. Around 7,000 people have been evacuated so far and large areas of arable land are under water, officials said. The Romanian government has asked for aid from the European Union to help repair the damage to roads and farmland.

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/10465678.stm I'd like to post a comment about Alex but though it is a Mexican event, Google reports it from the US viewpoint. The damned news from there even point towards the hurricane causing tornadoes. I wonder how many other countries share such a phenomenon.And finally: Northern Lights over erupting Icelandic volcanohttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1290776/Northern-Lights-erupting-Icelandic-volcano.html

  7. Originally posted by El Financiero:

    Venice, EU, 1 de julio.- La tormenta tropical Alex desaceleró los trabajos de limpieza y contención del derrame de petróleo en el Golfo de México el jueves, cuando aún faltan semanas para concretar la reparación definitiva del pozo dañado de BP en el lecho marino. La gigante de energía con sede en Londres negó rumores que indicaban que había logrado contener la fuga. la versión empujó al alza las acciones de BP. Alex tocó tierra como huracán en la frontera entre México y Texas el miércoles tarde, al oeste del sitio donde se extiende el derrame, pero los fuertes vientos y el mar agitado retrasaron los planes de BP de ampliar la capacidad de captura de crudo. El mal tiempo también amenazó con llevar más agua contaminada con petróleo hacia las playas estadounidenses de la zona del Golfo de México y obligó a detener el uso de dispersantes químicos y quemas controladas de crudo en la superficie del océano. El peor derrame en la historia de Estados Unidos lleva ya 73 días y causó daños ambientales y económicos en la costa estadounidense del Golfo de México, golpeando a la industria de la pesca y el turismo, manchando las playas y matando vida silvestre. (Con información de Reuters/MVC)

    http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct2=es_mx%2F2_0_s_0_0_t&ct3=MAE4AUgAUABqBWVzX214egFu&usg=AFQjCNExJSntoth4oXcrKaqlCuUhfhhATA&cid=17593550892218&ei=_eQsTNidMtS1-Aa14vNZ&rt=HOMEPAGE&vm=STANDARD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.elfinanciero.com.mx%2FElFinanciero%2FPortal%2Fcfpages%2Fcontentmgr.cfm%3FdocId%3D271277%26docTipo%3D1%26orderby%3Ddocid%26sortby%3DASC

  8. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    L'après-guerre la guerre froide :

    Quote | Edit | Delete

    The site is showing a drop in pressure of 7 millibars noon today. Tomorrow the pressure is back to 974 mb.So that is either tornadoes or an earthquake. It is sandwiched between an High of 1018 over Greenland and another of 1017 over the Med. I can't remember what I said that could be. LHL = tornadoes. It must be a quake then? It will be interesting, whatever.

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    So that is either tornadoes or an earthquake. It is sandwiched between an High of 1018 over Greenland and another of 1017 over the Med. I can't remember what I said that could be. LHL = tornadoes. It must be a quake then?

    What is annoying is that I have only recently realised the importance of this sandwich. The detail is in the filling and the devil is in the detail.It would be quicker to wait and see but infinitely more satifying to find the reasoning I propounded and quote it before hand.If I am to do that I am cutting it fine.Pity I haveno idea about a search term. Maybe "Greenland" + "south west"But I was referring to a Low over Greenland and another somewhere to the South west. A classic negative North Atlantic cycle phenomenon. The High running through from west to easrt another anomalous situation; though not at all uncommon for a -ve NAO.Here is another idiosyncrasy:Originally posted by Sydney Morning Herald .au:

    Alex, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, weakened across northeast Mexico as it neared high mountains on Thursday, after disrupting oil clean-up operations in the Gulf of Mexico.Alex was downgraded to a tropical storm after roaring ashore late on Wednesday as a Category Two hurricane slightly south of the eastern US-Mexico border.{AND after running ashore on the Yucatan penninsula a few days earlir too!}The Miami-based National Hurricane Center predicted tornadoes.Tamaulipas had widespread flooding with rivers gushing beyond their banks and thousands of people remained in temporary shelters.Mexico's Meteorological Service warned that the storm would produce "intense and torrential rain, strong winds and an elevated surge" through Friday across five Mexican states."These rains could cause life-threatening flash flood and mud slides," the NHC warned.At 15:00 GMT tropical Storm Alex was moving westwards at around 20km/h and losing steam, according to the NHC.Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 85km/h and Alex was expected to dissipate over high ground overnight.Mexican officials reported no immediate casualties, but at least 11 people were killed over the weekend when the storm passed through Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador.The Mexican navy kept some 2000 sailors at their barracks in Tamaulipas, while around 17,500 people were evacuated from the coast, including all inhabitants of the fishing town of La Carbonera, where many homes are made of wood.Over the border, power lines were down in South Padre Island, located in far southeastern Texas. Authorities also closed a bridge between the island and the mainland due to high winds.Alex disrupted clean-up operations for the massive BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.Although the storm travelled far southwest of the worst hit area – the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida – its strong winds whipped up choppy waves, forcing a halt in skimming operations.Large waves also pushed more of the huge slick onto fragile shorelines.US officials said the storm interrupted 26.3 per cent of crude oil production in the Gulf on Wednesday.Alex is the first Atlantic hurricane to form in June since 1995, according to the National Hurricane Center.US President Barack Obama declared a state of emergency in Texas late Tuesday to help with possible storm damage.

    © 2010 AFPhttp://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/alex-weakens-across-northeast-mexico-20100702-zqzu.htmlThe idiosyncrasy is the birth of tornadoes.They are quite common this time of year all across the US plains. But several cells in the past have been reported in Southern US States as some hurricanes went ashore.I attributed this to the time of the phase of the moon at one time. Then forgot all about the situation. Now I'd like to clear the decks.I don't think the time of the phase has anything to do with the type and track of the storm if one is generated. Obviously the time of the phase is important -all important for the generation of weather types but the location is not so easily drawn from that.The permutations are staggering. Just as they are for tidal constants drawn by hydrogrphers from the finest think tanks in the world.None the less once we get so close to events that we can see meteorological charts predicting one or two days ahead, we can suppose tracks and power.The thing with tropical storms and it IS a big thing is that they tend to occur in regions where the pressure at sea surface levels is almopst always at 1016 millibars.So there are no adjacent highs sandwiching themFunny how I never made that observation before.Maybe god was telling me but due to my limited attention span ans poor short term memory….And lack of humility…Sorry dad.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s