Met Office Website

The British Meteorological Office has finally got itself sorted out. …

It must be the season. I think I am back in love with the Met Office again.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All

I wonder how long I have been missing out. The links on there surpass what the BBC R4 bulletin manages. (Still not in love with them!)

The thing is can I be bothered Weatherlawyering it? Hmmm. I'm curious to see how the pressure warnings pan out locally and along the North Pacific rim. (And I am glad I am not tied to the night or early morning schedule from the Beeb.)

But do I want to descend into hell again?

****

High Ireland 1042 slow moving with little change by 0600 tomorrow+

At 210000 UTC, low 53 north 48 west 985 expected 68 north 43 west 996 by 220000 UTC. New low expected 53 north 38 west 998 by same time. Low 71 north 04 west 991 expected 74 north 20 east 990 by that time.
210000 UTC, high 54 north 06 west 1041 expected 55 north 09 west 1043 by 220000 UTC. New high expected 73 north 19 west 1027 by same time

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/highseas_forecast.html#All

*******

21 Jan 2011 07:00:46.3 27.1N 143.4E 10 mb=5.1 M*GSR BONIN ISLANDS REGION 0854

21 Jan 2011 06:32:21.5 27.2N 143.4E 10 mb=5.4 M*GSR BONIN ISLANDS REGION 0744

http://www.seismo2009.ethz.ch/redpuma/redpuma_ami_list.html

No recent Mag 6 or greater since the 18th. That 985 millibars looks interesting and it pulled out those Aleut quakes on Wodin's day:

19 Jan 2011 04:59:50.4 51.3N 178.2W 33 mb=5.1 M*GSR ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIA 0705
19 Jan 2011 04:59:50.2 50.1N 176.9W 60 mb=5.2 M*ROM ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIA 0550
or not, as the case is unlikely not to have been.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html

The above Met Office chart showed it just off the USA. It will wait for the High over Britain to clear, I imagine, before jumping the Ridge. In stable situations (+ve NAO) it will go to Iceland. Which means more high pressure for us.

Jan 19 21:21 is an awkward one but most of Greenland is Low sort of a betwixt and between one.
But this is all very positive stuff:

Jan 26 12:57 Wet (Low over the UK)
Feb 3 02:31 A 3 Lows around 990 mb build on the Mid Atlantic*
Ridge and head north-east in between two Highs (if one is over Greenland)
Feb 11 07:18 Very wet – if there is a low over Greenland. So pretty much an awkward run to guess.

More snow in a few days (spell ends 25th 26th Jan 2011) Archive weather charts can be found with this search:
WetterZentrale bracknell fax archiv

But any work I post on this spell will be very much an hind-cast as I get tuned into what I am able to do. I wish I have a connection at home. But the cheapest ISPs all wnat me to sign up for a long contract and I am thinking of moving soon.

*That spell would be a perfect tornado forecast if the season was right. But they still occur in winter. So if you know anyone who livews in the USA or Canada you might want to warn them.

Winter tornadoes tend not to occur in the mid west in Winter as they require more time to build up to do that. I'll explain it in more detail some other time.

One nice thing to complement the MetO availability is that I can get onto the NEIC lists once more. (Whoever was stopping me doing that, congratulations. Pity I don't think there is a hell for I'd be happy to see you there along side me.)

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6 thoughts on “Met Office Website

  1. Santa Anna winds.These are hot mountain winds that plauge California from time to time. I am pretty sure they are the west coast product of the east coast's lake effect winds.When there is an high pressure system over Greenland, if a Low pressure system builds up to the south of it, which is pretty much a given in the winter, then heavy snow or freezing rain can fall as far as the great lakes in the USA.In summer it is still called "lake effect" though it falls as rain. It falls so far inland because the effect of continental weather allows it to carry that far.There is more to it than that but I have little opportunity to study it.If a similar situation (but probably with the positions of the Highs and Lows reversed (with the Low at an higher latitude)) the effect would be to draw strong winds out from the inner desert regions.I'll have to think more about this as I have poor cognition with left and right and am easily confused with directions.In the North Atlantic:With a high to the left and a Low to the right cold air is pulled southTherefore it seems to me that with a low to the left and an high to the right warm air would be pulled north.Therefore over the US Pacific coast:with a high to the north and a low to the south desert air on the west of the North American continent, is likely to be pulled from east to west that is from inland to the coast.I imagine for a santana wind to form the resultant (centre of) the two centres will be somewhare off the coast of California?Doesn't that sound like it is logical?I'll now have to follow this site as well as all the others:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_0.gifMaybe I'll just put a marker in my google mailbox to get an heads up when santa annas are blowing?And fill my email with adverts for santanna suppositories and assorted filler/spam.Warning.If you can't get onto the site you need to sort out the certification with it. Most asites will keep cookies well past their sell by date and rely on automagic updates for thm.Engineers hired with security in mind don't tend to do much work on such sites as Facebook and Hotmail etc.On US military site the religious fervor is much more ardent. (Good job I am a wit, man.)

  2. I've tried to save some web pages from the MetOffice. I couldn't do it this morning as the USB drive was full so I went home and emptied some of it. Now with 7.odd GB of free space I still can't save the pages. For example:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecastingI'm on a strict time limit here so taking them home to peruse later would be ideal.What's so dificult about saving this:Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction modelsThe Met Office Unified Model is run operationally, in a number of configurations, for weather forecasting at the Met Office.A global configuration provides the medium-range weather forecast and also supports the nested higher resolution regional models with boundary data. More detailed short-range forecasts are provided by these high-resolution models which are able to represent certain atmospheric processes more accurately, as well as having a more detailed representation of surface features such as coastlines and orography.The latest addition is a variable resolution UK model (UKV) which has a high resolution inner domain (1.5 km grid boxes) over the area of forecast interest, separated from a coarser grid (4 km) near the boundaries by a variable resolution transition zone. This variable resolution approach allows the boundaries to be moved further away from the region of interest-reducing unwanted boundary effects on the forecasts. UKV is intended to replace UK4 once validation is complete.A 24 member regional ensemble forecasting system supported by a global ensemble provides information on the uncertainty in short-range forecasts. The solution spread is obtained by perturbing both the initial conditions and also some aspects of the physical processes within the model.Model Grid length in mid-latitudes Grid points Vertical levels Forecast length Run times (UTC) Initial conditions Global 25 km 1024 x 769 70(lid ~80 km) 144 hrs (for 00z and 12z) 00, 06, 12, 18 Incremental 4D-Var North Atlantic European (NAE) 12 km 600 x 360 70(lid ~80 km) 48 hrs 00, 06, 12, 18 Incremental 4D-Var UK4 4 km 288 x 360 70(lid ~40 km) 36 hrs 03, 09, 15, 21 Incremental 3D-Var UKV 1.5 km inner4 km outer 744×928 70(lid ~40 km) 36 hrs 03, 09, 15, 21 Incremental 3D-Var MOGREPS Global ensemble 60 km 432 x 325 70(lid ~80 km) 72 hrs 00, 12 Global analysis + 24 member ETKF perturbations MOGREPS Regional ensemble 18km 400 x 240 70 (lid ~80km) 54 hrs 06, 18 NAE analysis + 24 member perturbations interpolated from global ensemble The Met Office also has the capability to rapidly relocate regional models to any area of interest worldwide. These Crisis Area Models (CAMs) are run in support of allied military operations and disaster relief.The weather forecasting configurations of the Unified Model differ from the climate configurations in a number of respects.Data assimilation — in weather forecasting an accurate representation of the initial state of the atmosphere is vital and so assimilation of the latest observations is required. Resolution — the shorter forecast length allows the model to be run at higher resolution allowing more accurate representation of atmospheric dynamics and surface features. Coupling — processes which are not thought to have a significant impact on weather prediction timescales such as deep ocean circulation, atmospheric chemistry and the carbon cycle are not currently modelled. For example, while climate projections are typically run from coupled ocean-atmosphere models, the current NWP configurations use a fixed SST from the OSTIA analysis system.*****There is no way to save the table they show. Maybe I should save it to Word file?Crap!

  3. Ah well. I'm about to shell out on the latest edition of Newton's Principia.If you can't beat them see if you can get them disqualified.64 quid for an hardback version, sight unseen. A paperback will fall apart in a year or so.Unless I don't read it. Save money lock up all the books. The thing is it is the ultimate physics text book.Every home should have one.

  4. The end of the affair:All change?Not really. The weather here is a little warmer than before, as you'd expect from a wet spell but the overall picture is still anticyclonic.We are touched by the remains of the High but more importantly, the classical position for the Iceland Low means fine weather just a few degrees south west.Strong Lows around Iceland always bring fine weather to my part of Britain -winter or summer.Here are some largish earthquakes that are associated with the British Isles weather: Tonga and that part of the South Seas (the Pacific west of Australia) occur with storms that go ashore some 80 degrees north weston the east coast of the North Atlantic.Which is awkward, as I can't explain why this one occurred: The following are all related to the High (that dissipated rather slowly) and I don't really have enough information about the dissipation of anticyclones to be any good at guessing their behaviour as regards quakes. As you can see the Bonnin Islands and the Volcano Islands region are much the same and the quakes involved are all due in my opinin to the long lasting anticyclonein the north east North Atlantic.Of course it is amistaketo think that weather anywhere on earth affects seismicity anywhere on earth. Weather doesn't even affect weather.Atmospheric scientists would insist that it does but of course the force required for one molecule of gast to affect more than one more molecule of gas right next to it is immense and action is equal to reaction so gasses can not institutea fluid flow.The mechanism has an outside cause. A pump. And simple solar radiation isn't it.Sunlight, even strong unobstructed by weather sunlight, is only going to raise temperatures or drop pressuresor both. It will not cause airto do more than move up and down.Of course that means a lotofair moving up or down, but the sun acts on the whole planet and weather would be diurnal and winds tend to be vertical not horizontal.But you knew all that didn't you?Really?You know itnow and you know you knew it then too don't you?It's justyou couldn't see clearly where the rain comes from.Dope.I hope you are awake now!

  5. Damn internet. I can't seem to get anything right.Top map is the North Atlantic coutecy of the MetOfficeThe next is the Sout Seas (Tongan series) followed by the two that hit Jan van mayen Island in the North Atlantic.And the final two are from the Japanese region I was forecasting them for. http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.htmlThis piece of crapware at the Hanley Library won't let me save stuff not highlight the NEIC list so I can post it on here.If I wasn't leaving I'd get set up online at home this is so ******* irritating!

  6. Some of the most pertinent quakes of the spell(s)UTC DATE-TIME  Region MAGy/m/d h:m:s 2011/02/01FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA  4.4 2011/02/01KURIL ISLANDS  4.5   SOUTHERN ALASKA  2.9  SOUTHERN ALASKA  2.8   VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  4.9  ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  4.9   2011/01/31VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION5.2  TONGA  6.0   2011/01/30BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION5.3  VANUATU  5.3  BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  4.7  VANUATU  4.5   VANUATU  4.8  BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  4.8  LOYALTY ISLANDS  5.1  IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION  4.9  2011/01/29MARIANA ISLANDS REGION  5.2  JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION  6.1  VANUATU  5.0  FIJI REGION  4.8  It is the sequence of spell that gives convergence the power to reach dangerous levels as storms or as quakes. The weather hasn't changed all that much though the acoustics have.Think of the columns of air as standing waves caused by unimaginably powerful sound waves in the infrasonic spectrum. (Decibels at Herts)As the spell changes so must the tone. Logical? A massive hypothesis but what alternatives are there?<< I left some of the less pertinent ones in as they depict the behaviour of the weather/seismicity. Pairs of adjacent quakes occurring with no bereaks between them indicate the weather has now settled into the new spell. It is the equivalent of a large magnitude quake which is also a signal that things have changed. I'll have to look at how the spread over the western coast of North America has teased things out. It has been quite active but not with significant shaking. Presumably the weather in Australia is a lot more sociable, too. Oh well, I suppose into every life… …someone has to have it:

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