When will the aftershocks stop?

From a Usenet post


"With an event like this, aftershocks can continue for years — maybe decades," says Sevilgen.

There is no such thing as an expert in seismology. Only engineers whomake and look after seismographs. I'm not sying I can read or do much with a seismogramme but….

The frequency of the aftershocks usually decreases over time. You might see dozens of large aftershocks in the first few hours after the main shock, but one month later, notable earthquakes only occur every few days. But this doesn't mean they are getting smaller. It is still possible to have a 7.0 magnitude aftershock years after the main event.

As soon as a cyclone reaches maximum low pressure, apparently, it starts to fill. It follows that as the filling process occurs, prequakes occur. Since the cyclone will still have a long way to go before it diminishes, there quakes will not be on the same tract of land as the main quake will occur in.

I have yet to learn anything about anticyclones and their decay. Since cyclone decay is a relativley new science and has only been studied by <spit=climatologists</spit> (Climatologists are the accounts department of meteorology and shout be treated with respect)(aka cluebyfour.)

Which leaves the field open to Weatherlore.

When a cyclone decaysit does so in stages. It may well prove to fill incrementally along with other earthquakes to the main shock. These will obviously be in different areas. The lead into the Japanese quake everyone talks about took place quite a few weeks before the main event. Look at dat from Bonin Island and the Russian Islands north of Japan for the months before.

Alright, months is too far ahead for locating the end point of a Rossby Wave but the annual trend canbe seen.

esearch on cyclosis, the decay of cyclones has managed to link their behaviour with the El Nino cycle. Knowing what is going to go bad for the next year or so and having some idea of the intensities to expect from phenomenon such as tropical storms will be a big help if only people will bother to look at….

Well, there are plenty of cranks to be looked at all crying see see see…

None the less it would be good for Operatuees to pay me some attention. I think Vietnam, Hong Kong, Burma and Japan all of south china in fact should keep their eyes open for emergency situations arising.

More later.
Time for tiffin I think.

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2 thoughts on “When will the aftershocks stop?

  1. My apologies for all this. I'll rework it next week. My time online is almost overand I can't edit it properlyinthat time.That is the trouble tryingtotransfer stuff fromadifferent format. It has to be traded piecemealand you end up repasting the same message.And I don't have my USB drive with me to collectit and finish it at home.Looks like another long wait is inprogress.

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