Odd low from 17th to the 20th+ of January 2009

This is actually a tropical cyclone off Madagasgar …

Pretty nearly all tropical cyclones show up in the North Atlantyic. They are the extra large but not neccessarily dangerous systems that hover over the MidAtlantic Ridge for the duration.

And of course are followed up by a large magnitude set of quakes some 80 degrees away at their demise.

My problem is that I don't know where to get upper level layer details on archive. That and the fact I don't know how to interpret upper layer charts.

What I do know is that when the Low in the tropics meets the high it is connected to os that one is directly above or below the other, then the supertyphonn-hurrican esyndrome comes into effect.

A Low drags air from the sea surface up to the middle of the troposphere. And an anticyclone above it turns it into a "Bomb" a cyclone that can derop in pressure explosively . (That should be Implosively.)

A similar feature links flares with sunspots on the solar surface. (So much for nuclear reaction caused by gravity and magnetic storms. Ha!)

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11 thoughts on “Odd low from 17th to the 20th+ of January 2009

  1. On Jan 5, 10:20 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:>> > There is a possibility that these will play ring around the roses. I> > have no idea what that will mean. All the weather charts seem to be up> > the spout at the moment. I have no idea why.> The Alaska Low has changed into a three pointed centre on the forecast> NAEFS.> It is the same pattern and timing as the Met Office give for their> version off Greenland.The last time I was aware of the behaviour of lows in the same regioncirculating a common centre -if this is what is going to happen, therewas an associated tropical storm off Réunion in the south west IndianOcean.What is happening off Alaska is much the same but I have minus 1experience of that.> The Met Office show that the developments will produce an anticyclone> in the Denmark Straight which is unusual. What is incredible is that> it is flanked by a Greenland and a Scandinavian Low.There is a massive Polar High that is centred in Asia just of thechart here:> http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_100.gif at the time of writing: 6 January 2013.1045 mb. It covers half of the North Pole (declining towards theNorwegian Sea rather than facing any serious opposition.)And off the coast of the USA there is another substantial High. Thisis coupled with an High over the coast that extends as far as theMississippippippaeiii.I am afraid the planet has seismic issues it is yet to deal with.Unhappily for some, the tropical storm situation id dying out. But asa glance at:> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p…This should be anything BUT the case.I can only imagine that the relatively large earthquake off Alaska wasjust a prelude to what we are about to receive, may the lord make ustruly grateful. It has all gone quiet on the western front:Update time =Sun Jan 6 2013 @ 7:28:22 UTC5.1 MAURITIUS – REUNION REGION5.1 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA7.5 SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA5.4 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN5.1 MID-INDIAN RIDGEHardly the behaviour seasoned realists would expect from the USGSlists after a mag. 7 is it?No doubt obductionists will come up with something if badgeredcontinuously for long enough. Something to do with not enough shakingto settle all the fizz out of the pop?OK enough of the funny stuff, people are going to die.Let's see if we can find out where.There are two viable methods for detecting where the most likely epicentre is:1. Where the confluence of the most severe pressure systems are. The epicentres will be some 90 degrees along the 1016 isobar between them.The regions to watch out for will be some 80 degrees from the centres of the High and the Low involved. Unfortunately that is quite a large area given the size of a centre for any suitable High (in this case most of central Siberia and or 1/4 of the west Pacific.)The problem with Lows is their penchant for moving off at the last minute. Of course had we reasonable analysis charts to consult things might get nailed down to within 6 hours of escapement.I can't see that happening in my life time. Not with the dolts in charge of the rule books in places like the Met Orifice. Still never mind eh?Mustn't grumble, there is always method II subsection paragraph 14 ibid 2034a. subsection b. (Fourth line from the bottom.) New Zealand et al:2. We could just look up the last one:> http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/odd-low-from-17th-to-the-20th-of-january-2009Day. Month. Mag. time. Long. Lat.3. 1. 7.7. M. @ 194350.65. -0.414. 132.8853. 1. 7.4. M. @ 223340.29. -0.691. 133.30515. 1. 7.4. M. @ 174939.07. 46.857. 155.15411. 2. 7.2. M. @ 173450.49. 3.886. 126.38718. 2. 7. M. @ 215345.16. -27.424. -176.3319. 3. 7.6. M. @ 181740.47. -23.043. -174.6628. 5. 7.3. M. @ 82446.56. 16.731. -86.21715. 7. 7.8. M. @ 92229.03. -45.762. 166.5629. 8. 7.1. M. @ 105555.11. 33.167. 137.94410. 8. 7.5. M. @ 195538.73. 14.099. 92.9022. 9. 7. M. @ 75501.05. -7.782. 107.29729. 9. 8.1. M. @ 174810.99. -15.489. -172.09530. 9. 7.6. M. @ 101609.25. -0.72. 99.8677. 10. 7.7. M. @ 220314.47. -13.006. 166.517. 10. 7.8. M. @ 221851.24. -12.517. 166.3827. 10. 7.4. M. @ 231348.16. -13.093. 166.4979. 11. 7.3. M. @ 104455.11. -17.239. 178.331That looks messy. Here is the source:> http://neic.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/epic/epic.cgi?SEARCHMETHOD=1&FILEFORMAT=6&SEARCHRANGE=HH&SYEAR=2009&SMONTH=1&SDAY=1&EYEAR=2009&EMONTH=12&EDAY=31&LMAG=7&UMAG=&NDEP1=&NDEP2=&IO1=&IO2=&CLAT=0.0&CLON=0.0&CRAD=0.0&SUBMIT=Submit+SearchNot very lucid is it. It looks like a spread of 2 weeks between all of them until March. I wonder what the phases were:> http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

  2. 4 Jan 11:56 11 Jan 03:27 18 Jan 02:46Jan 07:55 2 Feb 23:13 9 Feb 14:49 16 Feb 21:37Feb 01:35 4 Mar 07:46 11 Mar 02:38 18 Mar 17:47Mar 16:06 2 Apr 14:34 9 Apr 14:56 17 Apr 13:36Apr 03:23 1 May 20:44 9 May 04:01 17 May 07:26May 12:11 31 May 03:22 7 Jun 18:12 15 Jun 22:15Jun 19:35 29 Jun 11:28 7 Jul 09:21 15 Jul 09:53Jul 02:35 28 Jul 22:00 6 Aug 00:55 13 Aug 18:55Aug 10:01 27 Aug 11:42 4 Sep 16:03 12 Sep 02:16Sep 18:44 26 Sep 04:50 4 Oct 06:10 11 Oct 08:56Oct 05:33 26 Oct 00:42 2 Nov 19:14 9 Nov 15:56Nov 19:14 24 Nov 21:39 2 Dec 07:30 9 Dec 00:13Dec 12:02 24 Dec 17:36 31 Dec 19:13

  3. I suppose an attempt at explaining the code I have given them is in order?First off there is a cycle of seasons we all know ass the calendar. Then there is a four or five year sequence with different implications for the weather in an almost climate changing scheme.(The sort of thing that drives Glowballers nuts.)For instance there were some extraordinarily bad tornadoes in 2009.In 2005 there were some record breaking North Atlantic cyclones.Your mileage will vary. Philippino floods generally equate to Australian fires. That sort of thing. Californian Santa Annas are a#often accompanied by heavy rains in Florida and Britain.Whether you can call that al Ninio La Ninia is a matter of choice since anything south of the equator tends to gravitate to the South pole and seldom if ever crosses the equator. But I am not a Glowballer.If I have the mathematical notation wrong, I apologise. but the code is at least obvious if you stare at it long enough.I think "=<" means "equal to, or greater than" the following number.And "=>" means "equal to, or less than" the following.This is a code for the moon with no allowance for Blocking Highs and Lows. But of course before severe earthquakes there are ALWAYS Blocking Highs and Lows.Times of the moon's phase that fall between 20 minutes past the hour and 20 minutes to the next hour always give me hebejeebies.If you thing of the times given as longitudes on which blocking highs may form you can probably see why. One hour's worth of solar time covers 15 degrees of longitude, more or less. The same goes for the moon, in theory. (Less or lesser as the moon rotates across the longitude several minutes slower.)So if the sun/moon equal to overhead at 5 o'clock 15 degrees away, Britain will be basking in the sun or frost.At 1 o'clock we will be bather in god given rain.But on the half hour we seem to get either a double dose or it ALL goes to play elsewhere.Or there could be a major earthquake due instead.That is as simple as I can can make it for you. Struggle along with that until you can come up with your own rationalisation.

  4. 4 Jan 11:56 = 611 Jan 03:27 =< 3 => 418 Jan 02:46 => 326 Jan 07:55 = 22 Feb 23:13 = 59 Feb 14:49 = 316 Feb 21:37 =< 3 25 Feb 01:35 =< 1 4 Mar 07:46 => 2 11 Mar 02:38 =< 2 =>318 Mar 17:47 = 626 Mar 16:06 = 42 Apr 14:34 =< 2 =>39 Apr 14:56 = 317 Apr 13:36 =< 125 Apr 03:23 =< 3 1 May 20:44 => 39 May 04:01 = 417 May 07:26 =< 124 May 12:11 = 631 May 03:22 =< 37 Jun 18:12 = 615 Jun 22:15 = 522 Jun 19:35 =< 129 Jun 11:28 =< 57 Jul 09:21 =< 315 Jul 09:53 = 422 Jul 02:35 =< 2 => 328 Jul 22:00 = 56 Aug 00:55 = 113 Aug 18:55 = 120 Aug 10:01 = 427 Aug 11:42 => 64 Sep 16:03 = 412 Sep 02:16 = 218 Sep 18:44 => 126 Sep 04:50 = 54 Oct 06:10 = 611 Oct 08:56 = 318 Oct 05:33 =< 526 Oct 00:42 => 12 Nov 19:14 = 19 Nov 15:56 = 416 Nov 19:14 = 124 Nov 21:39 =< 32 Dec 07:30 =< 19 Dec 00:13 = 616 Dec 12:02 = 624 Dec 17:36 =< 531 Dec 19:13 = 1

  5. If anyone wants the following in Office Libre Calc format just email me at Opera or Google.Here is as far as I am going to go with this until I have had something more satisfying:27 Dec 12:23 =< 6 3. 1. 7.7. M. 3. 1. 7.4. M. "4 Jan 11:56 = 6" "11 Jan 03:27 =< 3 => 4" 15. 1. 7.4. M. "18 Jan 02:46 => 3" "26 Jan 07:55 = 2" "2 Feb 23:13 = 5" "9 Feb 14:49 = 3" 11. 2. 7.2. M. "16 Feb 21:37 =< 3 " 18. 2. 7. M. "25 Feb 01:35 =< 1 " "4 Mar 07:46 => 2 " "11 Mar 02:38 =< 2 =>3" "18 Mar 17:47 = 6" 19. 3. 7.6. M. "26 Mar 16:06 = 4" "2 Apr 14:34 =< 2 =>3" "9 Apr 14:56 = 3" "17 Apr 13:36 =< 1" "25 Apr 03:23 =< 3 " "1 May 20:44 => 3" "9 May 04:01 = 4" "17 May 07:26 =< 1" "24 May 12:11 = 6" 28. 5. 7.3. M. "31 May 03:22 =< 3" "7 Jun 18:12 = 6" "15 Jun 22:15 = 5" "22 Jun 19:35 =< 1" "29 Jun 11:28 =< 5" "7 Jul 09:21 =< 3" "15 Jul 09:53 = 4" 15. 7. 7.8. M. "22 Jul 02:35 =< 2 => 3" "28 Jul 22:00 = 5" "6 Aug 00:55 = 1" 9. 8. 7.1. M. 10. 8. 7.5. M. "13 Aug 18:55 = 1" "20 Aug 10:01 = 4" "27 Aug 11:42 => 6" 2. 9. 7. M. "4 Sep 16:03 = 4" "12 Sep 02:16 = 2" "18 Sep 18:44 => 1" "26 Sep 04:50 = 5" 29. 9. 8.1. M. 30. 9. 7.6. M. "4 Oct 06:10 = 6" 7. 10. 7.7. M. 7. 10. 7.8. M. 7. 10. 7.4. M. "11 Oct 08:56 = 3" "18 Oct 05:33 =< 5" "26 Oct 00:42 => 1" "2 Nov 19:14 = 1" "9 Nov 15:56 = 4" 9. 11. 7.3. M. "16 Nov 19:14 = 1" "24 Nov 21:39 =< 3" "2 Dec 07:30 =< 1" "9 Dec 00:13 = 6" "16 Dec 12:02 = 6" "24 Dec 17:36 =< 5" "31 Dec 19:13 = 1"

  6. 3. 1. 7.7. M. 3. 1. 7.4. M.4 Jan 11:56 11 Jan 03:27 15. 1. 7.4. M.18 Jan 02:46 26 Jan 07:55 2 Feb 23:13 9 Feb 14:49 11. 2. 7.2. M.16 Feb 21:37 18. 2. 7. M.25 Feb 01:35 4 Mar 07:46 11 Mar 02:38 18 Mar 17:47 19. 3. 7.6. M.26 Mar 16:06 2 Apr 14:34 9 Apr 14:56 17 Apr 13:36 25 Apr 03:23 1 May 20:44 9 May 04:01 17 May 07:26 24 May 12:11 28. 5. 7.3. M.31 May 03:22 7 Jun 18:12 15 Jun 22:15 22 Jun 19:35 29 Jun 11:28 7 Jul 09:21 15 Jul 09:53 15. 7. 7.8. M.22 Jul 02:35 28 Jul 22:00 6 Aug 00:55 9. 8. 7.1. M. 10. 8. 7.5. M.13 Aug 18:5520 Aug 10:01 27 Aug 11:42 2. 9. 7. M.4 Sep 16:03 12 Sep 02:16 18 Sep 18:44 26 Sep 04:50 29. 9. 8.1. M. 30. 9. 7.6. M.4 Oct 06:10 7. 10. 7.7. M. 7. 10. 7.8. M. 7. 10. 7.4. M.4 Oct 06:1011 Oct 08:5618 Oct 05:3326 Oct 00:422 Nov 19:14 9 Nov 15:56 9. 11. 7.3. M.16 Nov 19:14 24 Nov 21:39 2 Dec 07:30 9 Dec 00:13 16 Dec 12:02 24 Dec 17:36 31 Dec 19:13 I could use tables here Opera developers if you are watching!

  7. Without checking it (I used to have a comparison of Tornadoes with the North Atlantic charts on a file but that was several computers ago.)As I was saying, without checking it, I think the hiatus with the Large magnitude earthquakes was due to severe tornadic events and probably dust storms or whatever elsewhere. Didn't China suffer from a spate of them in 2009?If so it points to something more than simple Oceanic oscillations. It may indicate how multi-decadal systems develop.Up to the 20th century, the British Empire and the others before it had settled on ruling agrarian communities. The British satisfied themselves selling wool to fishermen and farmers all over the world.Then they moved on to cotton products, confining the bonanaza mpstly to control of the world's ports. It was after the cheap automotive industry got going that problems started.Not so much Glowballs (though it was fired by cheap petroleum products) but forest tribes began to be displaced by city dwellers moving in to their farmland and destroying the forests wholesale for cash crops. This became unchecked once the colonial Planter system was ousted from Asia and Africa.We no longer had an empire of Big Game Slaughterers and Coffee/Tea Planters. The USA took over with an almost Grecian disregard for local culture. And now we have what is a virtually unstoppable move to self destruction.I get the impression that these four to five year cycles get out of hand when the currents involved in the ocean cycles melt too much ice one year or another.It is self correcting just like the semi-decade cycles are. Only so much heat can be absorbed by snow cap melting. Usually it is enough.Let's hope these anticyclones do the trick this year.There will be hell to pay if they don't!

  8. Date Name Cat “27 Dec 12:23 =< 6 3. 1. 7.7. M. 3. 1. 7.4. M. "4 Jan 11:56 = 6" "11 Jan 03:27 =< 3 => 4" 15. 1. 7.4. M. 09-12 JAN Tropical Storm DONGO 0 "18 Jan 02:46 => 3" 18-20 JAN Tropical Storm ERIC 0"26 Jan 07:55 = 2" 19-22 JAN Cyclone-3 FANELE 3 25-27 JAN Tropical Storm DOMINIC 0"2 Feb 23:13 = 5" 02-10 FEB Cyclone-4 GAEL 4 06-09 FEB Tropical Storm FREDDY 0"9 Feb 14:49 = 3" 11. 2. 7.2. M. "16 Feb 21:37 =< 3 " 18. 2. 7. M. "25 Feb 01:35 =< 1 " 21-24 FEB Tropical Storm HINA 0"4 Mar 07:46 => 2 " 02-04 MAR Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 0 09-10 MAR Tropical Storm NINETEEN 0 "11 Mar 02:38 =< 2 =>3" "18 Mar 17:47 = 6" 19. 3. 7.6. M. 18-23 MAR Cyclone-3 ILSA 3 24-26 MAR Cyclone-1 IZILDA 1"26 Mar 16:06 = 4" "2 Apr 14:34 =< 2 =>3" 04-10 APR Cyclone-1 JADE 1"9 Apr 14:56 = 3" "17 Apr 13:36 =< 1" "25 Apr 03:23 =< 3 " 26-28 APR Tropical Storm KIRRILY 0"1 May 20:44 => 3" "9 May 04:01 = 4" "17 May 07:26 =< 1" "24 May 12:11 = 6" 28. 5. 7.3. M. "31 May 03:22 =< 3" "7 Jun 18:12 = 6" "15 Jun 22:15 = 5" "22 Jun 19:35 =< 1" "29 Jun 11:28 =< 5" "7 Jul 09:21 =< 3" "15 Jul 09:53 = 4" 15. 7. 7.8. M. "22 Jul 02:35 =< 2 => 3" "28 Jul 22:00 = 5" "6 Aug 00:55 = 1" 9. 8. 7.1. M. 10. 8. 7.5. M. "13 Aug 18:55 = 1" "20 Aug 10:01 = 4" "27 Aug 11:42 => 6" 2. 9. 7. M. "4 Sep 16:03 = 4" "12 Sep 02:16 = 2" "18 Sep 18:44 => 1" "26 Sep 04:50 = 5" 29. 9. 8.1. M. 30. 9. 7.6. M. "4 Oct 06:10 = 6" 7. 10. 7.7. M. 7. 10. 7.8. M. 7. 10. 7.4. M. "11 Oct 08:56 = 3" "18 Oct 05:33 =< 5" "26 Oct 00:42 => 1" "2 Nov 19:14 = 1" "9 Nov 15:56 = 4" 9. 11. 7.3. M. 14-18 NOV Cyclone-4 ANJA 4 "16 Nov 19:14 = 1" "24 Nov 21:39 =< 3" 23-25 NOV Tropical Storm BONGANI 0"2 Dec 07:30 =< 1" 07-14 DEC Cyclone-4 CLEO 4"9 Dec 00:13 = 6" 13-21 DEC Cyclone-4 LAURENCE 4"16 Dec 12:02 = 6" 13-25 DEC Tropical Storm DAVID 0"24 Dec 17:36 =< 5" "31 Dec 19:13 = 1"

  9. # Name Date Wind Pres Cat 1 Tropical Storm DONGO 09-12 JAN 55 – 2 Tropical Storm ERIC 18-20 JAN 35 – 3 Cyclone-3 FANELE 19-22 JAN 100 3 4 Tropical Storm DOMINIC 25-27 JAN 50 – 5 Cyclone-4 GAEL 02-10 FEB 120 4 6 Tropical Storm FREDDY 06-09 FEB 55 – 7 Tropical Storm HINA 21-24 FEB 60 – 8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 02-04 MAR 35 – 9 Tropical Storm NINETEEN 09-10 MAR 35 – 10 Cyclone-3 ILSA 18-23 MAR 100 3 11 Cyclone-1 IZILDA 24-26 MAR 65 1 12 Cyclone-1 JADE 04-10 APR 65 1 13 Tropical Storm KIRRILY 26-28 APR 40 – 14 Cyclone-4 ANJA 14-18 NOV 115 4 15 Tropical Storm BONGANI 23-25 NOV 45 – 16 Cyclone-4 CLEO 07-14 DEC 115 4 17 Cyclone-4 LAURENCE 13-21 DEC 115 4 18 Tropical Storm DAVID 13-25 DEC 55 –

  10. # Name Date Wind Pres Cat 1 Tropical Storm DONGO 09-12 JAN 55 – 2 Tropical Storm ERIC 18-20 JAN 35 – 3 Cyclone-3 FANELE 19-22 JAN 100 3 4 Tropical Storm DOMINIC 25-27 JAN 50 – 5 Cyclone-4 GAEL 02-10 FEB 120 4 6 Tropical Storm FREDDY 06-09 FEB 55 – 7 Tropical Storm HINA 21-24 FEB 60 – 8 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 02-04 MAR 35 – 9 Tropical Storm NINETEEN 09-10 MAR 35 – 10 Cyclone-3 ILSA 18-23 MAR 100 3 11 Cyclone-1 IZILDA 24-26 MAR 65 1 12 Cyclone-1 JADE 04-10 APR 65 1 13 Tropical Storm KIRRILY 26-28 APR 40 – 14 Cyclone-4 ANJA 14-18 NOV 115 4 15 Tropical Storm BONGANI 23-25 NOV 45 – 16 Cyclone-4 CLEO 07-14 DEC 115 4 17 Cyclone-4 LAURENCE 13-21 DEC 115 4 18 Tropical Storm DAVID 13-25 DEC 55 –

  11. Those are only the tropical storms for that part of the oceans. I haven't looked at the rest of them.There's 5 more regions.Such a database would be too large to speculate over.Which is a bit of a poser as the answer has to come before the research can be done.Which means guessing.

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