Hurricane data from the Tropical Storm reports web site

I abused a poster on a wether forum I no longer go to. I suppose thios is some sort of an apology to him. Not that i am happy about the insurance companies trawling my stuff. …

I was surprised to find that the Atlantic hurricane season for 2010 was a record season. There were few hitting continental North America. Two hit Mexico. TSR predicted more would hit the continent.

Modern "records began" dates date from 1950 but the "record year" compares well to both 2005 and 1933. Their is a lot of subjectivity involved in the days before about 1950. Most records were based on hearsay until systematic data collection began on them.

It wasn't possible to fly over one for one thing. And you can't send out boats to capture data on them, hoping for a ship to encounter one was about as much as you could do. And until about 1950 even ships wouldn't survive them confidently.

Not that I am saying a modern ship would withstand encounters with a severe typhoon or hurricane. Several military vessels were lost to them in the Pacific in WW2. It's unlikely that a modern freighter would survive one unscathed.

Smaller vessels would definitely not.

There were 19 tropical storms, 12 hurricanes with a twin-set that reached SF 4. I make that 31 storms overall. Maybe I read the report wrong. They only tabulate 19:

Alex 25Jun to 2 Jul. 946 mb F2.
26th. Jun 11:30

This is on its way from an anticyclone to a misty phase. Not it is on the half hour.

Bonnie 22-24 July 1005 mb.
18th. July 10:11

Colin 2-8 August 1005 mb.
3rd. Aug 04:59

This smack on anticyclonic so why did it fail to mature?

Danielle 21 -30 August 942 mb F4.
.24th. Aug 17:05

This one made it and some!

Earl 25 Aug-4 September 927 mb
Fiona 30 Aug-3 September 998 mb.
.1st. Sept 17:22

But on the cusp with this a Greenland High perhaps?

Gaston 1-2 September 1005 mb.
.1st. Sept 17:22

5 o'clock seems to be the favourite for these spells.

Hermine 5-9 September 989 mb.
.1st. Sept 17:22

Igor 8-21 September 924 mb F4.
8th. Sept 10:30 to 15th. Sept 05:50

This one is an odd-ball. At first it is similar to Bonnie's first spell then it went to misty.

Julia 12-20 September 948 mb F4.
8th. Sept 10:30 to 15th. Sept 05:50

Ditto

Karl 14-18 September 956 mb F3.
15th. Sept 05:50

Ditto

Lisa 20-26 September 982 mb. F1
15th. Sept 05:50 to 23rd. Sept 09:17

From misty to almost a 20 past thundery.

Note, they are almost all positive spells as far as the NAO is concerned.

Matthew 23-26 September998 mb.
23rd. Sept 09:17

Thundery

Nicole 28-19 September 995 mb.
23rd. Sept 09:17

Ditto

Otto 6-10 October 976 mb.
Paula 11-15 October 981 mb F2.
7th. Oct 18:44

Another Wet one.

Richard 20-25 October
14th. Oct 21:27

23rd. Oct 01:36

Half past Thundery to Wet and windy.
Long track?
No; just a five day wave.

It goes 2 days into the second spell but no further. Something interesting lies within this track. Believe me but as of 22:45 this evening, I haven't looked at the tracks yet. I'm still thinking about how to save it to install on my blog.

One of the writers of the TSR paper posts to uk.sci.weather. I will ask him how he feels about me posting his work on my blog unasked.

Sharry 28-30 October
23rd. Oct 01:36
Wet and windy

Thomas 26 October to 7 November
23rd. Oct 01:36

30th. Oct 12:46

6th. Nov 04:52

11 day track, three spells:
Wet and windy to Wet to anticyclonic. Guess which one was the deep end? Errrm… ..part.

Winds speeds are a good factor to play with. TSR tends to work out plots over 6 hours and sample maximum sustained gusts for a lifespan of one of these things and report it online.

Yesterday, I'd have gone along with the idea that you could measure the energy budget of the planet on any given hour from the 6 hourly wind speeds and and use it to work out the equivalent for the energy used of earthquakes for the periods following cyclosis.

But the idea that a place like Japan might be on a (for want of a better term) "co-tidal-line focus" for all the northern hemisphere cyclones and anticyclones every so often (depending on the luni-solar cycle and more probably the declinations north or south of the equator during the suited phases of such cycles) has knocked that into touch.

I might as well have tried to get some sleep that nigh instead of working on that stroke of genius.

But epiphanies often come in pairs. And I got a few hours kip later anyway. I'm over-tired now, though.

There is no way for me to arrange all the weather plots for the planet for the event or any event where a super quake took place. It's difficult enough as it is, for me to get local charts.

So I am going to have to sleep on that one.

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5 thoughts on “Hurricane data from the Tropical Storm reports web site

  1. The BBC reported a riot yesterday in which 8 policement were injured and several petrol bombs were removed.The BBC are supposed to be non partisan but what they do is give the police and the governmnet full license to say anything then a few days later the other party can have a 10 second slot to redress the lies.We now have no procedings to be seen and allowed to speak of one's arrest if the police say it is a matter of terrorism. So the evil wicked muslims or IRA squad or whatever are liable to be held incommunicado indefinitely.What it was about was a supermarket.It was a riot over a shop.It will probably turn out that the police arreested some street traders who had several bottles of aftershave in their flat.But they won't be brought out of solitary until the shop has been opened and running for a few months.And the BBC had no right to say they had petrol bombs. We are not the USA and we should not have Guatanamoesque torture chambers and isolation wings of that sort.And we should certainly have tougher controls on what the BBC says about us.Sorry about the rant.Not!

  2. Here are the relevant phases for the above storms:a19th. Jun 04:3026th. Jun 11:304th. Jul 14:35b18th. Jul 10:1126th. Jul 01:37c26th. Jul 01:373rd. Aug 04:5910th. Aug 03:08d16th. Aug 18:1424th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:22e24th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:228th. Sept 10:30fe24th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:228th. Sept 10:30g24th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:228th. Sept 10:30h24th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:228th. Sept 10:30i8th. Sept 10:3015th. Sept 05:5023rd. Sept 09:17j8th. Sept 10:3015th. Sept 05:5023rd. Sept 09:17k8th. Sept 10:3015th. Sept 05:5023rd. Sept 09:17l15th. Sept 05:5023rd. Sept 09:171st. Oct 03:52m23rd. Sept 09:171st. Oct 03:52n23rd. Sept 09:171st. Oct 03:52o1st. Oct 03:527th. Oct 18:4414th. Oct 21:27p7th. Oct 18:4414th. Oct 21:2723rd. Oct 01:36r14th. Oct 21:2723rd. Oct 01:3630th. Oct 12:46s23rd. Oct 01:3630th. Oct 12:46t23rd. Oct 01:3630th. Oct 12:466th. Nov 04:52Obviously some have started a day or so prior to the day of the phase. It happens that a phase can kick in early and hang on late into the next. And of course a storm can be started in one phase and take off again with another. This is especially true when the phases running one after the other are at much the same time. This happened with Danielle, for example.Other storms may have been taken over by an entirely different spell. It is highly unlikely that the whole ocean could adjust to accommodate the storm so if that happened the track is likely to change dramatically.But what do I know? I am working blind. To help me focus, I'm going to strip what I can out of them.a26th. Jun 11:30b18th. Jul 10:11c3rd. Aug 04:59d24th. Aug 17:05e24th. Aug 17:051st. Sept 17:22f1st. Sept 17:22g1st. Sept 17:22h1st. Sept 17:22i8th. Sept 10:3015th. Sept 05:50j8th. Sept 10:3015th. Sept 05:50k15th. Sept 05:50l15th. Sept 05:5023rd. Sept 09:17m23rd. Sept 09:17n23rd. Sept 09:17o7th. Oct 18:44p7th. Oct 18:44r14th. Oct 21:2723rd. Oct 01:36s23rd. Oct 01:36t23rd. Oct 01:3630th. Oct 12:466th. Nov 04:5226th. Jun 11:3018th. Jul 10:113rd. Aug 04:5924th. Aug 17:0524th. Aug 17:05 to 1st. Sept 17:221st. Sept 17:221st. Sept 17:221st. Sept 17:228th. Sept 10:30 to 15th. Sept 05:508th. Sept 10:30 to 15th. Sept 05:5015th. Sept 05:5015th. Sept 05:50 to 23rd. Sept 09:1723rd. Sept 09:1723rd. Sept 09:177th. Oct 18:447th. Oct 18:4414th. Oct 21:27 to 23rd. Oct 01:3623rd. Oct 01:3623rd. Oct 01:36, 30th. Oct 12:46 to 6th. Nov 04:52I don't know how or even if the phase following the spell in question has any effect on it but I left them in. The ones immediately before really do have an input.

  3. When I was a boy it was routine for medical doctors to lie to their patients. It was felt this was in the best interests of the mortally ill. It extended to the lack of patients rights all the way down to routinely applying unwanted routines to those not necessarily mortally ill.It doesn't take much thinking to realise the pall that would hit the patient so treated once he realised the truth. And how much better will he feel at death's door when all around him are liars?Since then and despite people like Mengele preceding him by a lifetime, Dr Shipman and others like him have exposed the various health services both here and abroad, to a large dose of reality.I am not after rousing a rabble. It is better that rabbles sleep in their slime than attach themselves to me. I will desert them and then where will they be?But it is time that you all started to take these things seriously. And work out a path or your own salvation.

  4. Here is what I code the times of the phases at:20107th. Jan 10:40. F15th. Jan 07:11. W23rd. Jan 10:53. F30th. Jan 06:18. M5th. Feb 23:49. F14th. Feb 02:51. T22nd. Feb 00:42. W28th. Feb 16:38. F7th. Mar 15:42. M15th. Mar 21:01. T23rd. Mar 11:00. F30th. Mar 02:25. T6th. Apr 09:37. T14th. Apr 12:29. M21st. Apr 18:20. M28th. Apr 12:18. M6th. May 04:1514th. May 01:04. W20th. May 23:43. M27th. May 23:07. F4th. Jun 22:1312nd. Jun 11:15. F19th. Jun 04:3026th. Jun 11:30. FM4th. Jul 14:35. F11st. Jul 19:40. W18th. Jul 10:1126th. Jul 01:37. W3rd. Aug 04:59. F10th. Aug 03:08. T16th. Aug 18:14. M24th. Aug 17:05. F1st. Sept 17:22. F8th. Sept 10:30. F15th. Sept 05:50. M23rd. Sept 09:17.T1st. Oct 03:527th. Oct 18:44. W14th. Oct 21:27.T23rd. Oct 01:36. W30th. Oct 12:46. W6th. Nov 04:52. F13rd. Nov 16:3921st. Nov 17:27. F28th. Nov 20:36. T5th. Dec 17:36. F13rd. Dec 13:5921st. Dec 08:1328th. Dec 04:18I've marked almost all of them with a letter but (and not just with hindsight) the majority of those occur on or near the cusp. And last year most of the spells were corrupted by the Greenland high. (Which is what tends to happen with phases on or near the half hour.)It's not corruption in the modern apocalyptic sense. I don't come from the planet Krikkit. And my computer isn't called HACTOR.These things are supposed to be seasons of refreshing. But without trees on the shoreline, they can be bloody dangerous. It was the same situation for mankind at the start of creation.At first Adam and his family would have been contained in Eden until there was room for them outside it. Unfortunate events got them ejected into what was still a big bad world, one devoid of a close relationship with god.There were apparently very few trees in the outside word at the time of his ejection. And there were very few storms too neither. Eden was watered with mists and artesian wells. Several great rivers ran around it.Never the less the rest of the planet was capable of life support after a fashion. It seemed best to god that the race of man would have to stretch themselves to conquer it. And it has been like that for us ever since. It is a capability we have, to overcome stressful conditions, men first to pioneer the place, then the women to make it worth inhabiting.It is that way for men, they would be happy in a bucket if it had beer in it. But a woman wants carpets and lamp shades. And in matching colours at that.By the time of the Flood, there were olive trees on the hills capable of surviving the worst weather conditions a planet could throw at them.Somewhere along the road we tear down what god hath wrought and put up concretions that look czjd, ultimately. And get swept away by the tide when the tide comes.Mangroves on the other hand are designed to live in czjd, don't attract tourists and from a distance, look beautiful. Their roots dig into the mud and hold it together in a massive tangle that the sky can not touch, no more can the sea.Somehow we have to change the mentality of a people that can do this sort of thing. That can allow a politician to keep a whole population prisoner like they do on Haiti for example, China, Iran and Iraq for others. Not to mention our British draconian Syria/Lybian type repressive antiterrorism measures.(Which I will mention in a minute.)And there is only one way to do this. The usual recourse is someone to put a bullet in the base turds but the neighbouring countries don't seem to want this to happen. The USA in particular. It's hard to imagine any other country allowing it to go on, unless there were machinations involved stopping them.We know what the USA has been up to in Nicaragua, Peru, Colombia and etcetera. And can see that they are now reaping the whirlwind. But worse is to come.I wonder what Britain is going to get for its part in things. We are as bad as mankind can get when it comes to covert operations.But some of us are trying to put things together the way they aught to go.

  5. Needless to say the heedless today:Dozens of tornadoes spawned by a powerful storm system wiped out neighborhoods across a wide swath of the South, killing at least 209 people in the deadliest outbreak in nearly 40 years, and officials said Thursday they expected the death toll to rise.Alabama's state emergency management agency said it had confirmed 131 deaths, while there were 32 in Mississippi, 24 in Tennessee, 13 in Georgia, eight in Virginia and one in Kentucky.The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., said it received 137 tornado reports around the region into Wednesday night.Things have got worse since I wrote this. It's hard to believe the US could lose so many souls to something they spare no effort trying to prevent.They have spent literally billions on research and prevention etc., (aside from the era of the chimp of course, who knows how many bananas that fool spawned?) but the rest of the effort on the part of serious research has been stupendous.

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