Hurricanes and earthquakes -or not, as the case might be.

This something I just replied to an e-mail over …

I like the idea of a quorum of interested people to sort out any of the factors in earthquake prediction.

That is supposed to be what Usenet is about; unfortunately it is prone to trolls and idiots who think they are wiser than the rest of us.

I think it can often take more than one or two things to start a quake, and it's a puzzle to figure out.

I don’t think it is hurricanes, that’s for sure.
Whatever causes it is likely to be subterranean not atmospheric.
But most likely both are caused by the disposition of the moon.

I collected weather records from the Library at the University of Idaho and also the University of Alaska (Weather magazines), the National Weather Service, and the Climate Center in Asheville, N.Carolina. I also had access to polar satellite photos that were taken every hour. I don't know where you're at, but I'm sure you can find a friend or two at the weather center closest to where you live. Most scientists are glad to help someone with a mutual interest.

I live in Britain and the Met Office is governed by a Thatcherite clause that the user must pay.

Fair play to the people who work for them they don’t set the rules and they don’t have time to teach amateurs.

"The Rossby planetary gravity waves in the atmosphere have a variety of periods and amplitudes. The so-called "five day" wave actually has a period of 6 to 7 days.

This is the result of hysteresis in the astronometry of the earth moon and sun. When the inertia of the system is forced to play catch-up a lot of uncalled for things happen.

The wave has been associated with the transfer of excess tropical heat energy to more northern latitudes, which is also what hurricanes do.

Do yourself a favour and find out more about that ideal as given by the NCAR experts to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. It is absolute nonsense.

It doesn't necessarily mean that the "five day" wave will always produce more, or stronger hurricanes.

Actually the five day wave is a theory that applies to regional phenomena such as the African Wave or any Oceanic or Continental area that has a settled spell.

A spell is usually governed by a phase, more explicitly the time of the phase but containing other tidal constants such as apse and decline.

Even if one starts with the assumption that hurricanes will produce earthquakes, which they most certainly can…

I used to think that. I saw an increase in the number of Mag 6’s in a cycle I eventually related to the end of a tropical storm.

It is a weak link to attempt to use the "five day" wave pattern as a prediction input for earthquakes.

One can always find some combination of events to make a case that they are causal to another event, such as an earthquake. Often, the linkage turns out to be very, very low probability, especially with a small historical data base. Interesting stuff, though.."

Such weaknesses in the physics usually imply failure of the theory but often the case is just a missed step.

Such a missed step is apparent in tidal theory if you apply a little logic you will see it for yourself. It is surprising that few do actually see such though.

But explains the failure of most earth science predictions and beliefs.


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