Diary of an optimist (cracked ideas, windows and computers.)

This stuff is crackers on so many planes. …

Fortunately I am not the only one. Someone just gave me a link to a place where people seem as weird as me:

Originally posted by http://cloudappreciationsociety.org/:

At The Cloud Appreciation Society we love clouds, we’re not ashamed to say it and we’ve had enough of people moaning about them. Read our manifesto and see how we are fighting the banality of ‘blue-sky thinking’. If you agree with what we stand for, then join the society for a minimal postage and administration fee and receive your very own official membership certificate and badge.[/http://cloudappreciationsociety.org/]

I really need a badge so my neighbours can recognise a loony when they meet one.

I forecast weather and earthquakes from the moon. (Where else would a loony live?)

Anyway, one day when I woke up the bedroom window was misted over inside. I mean the double glazed unit had failed on one of the panes.

No big deal, I'd report it sooner or later and then someone would get around to replacing it.

The next day it had cleared, so forgeddaboudit. A few days pass I begin to notice it is giving off a signal. Even the dumbest idiot you ever met will pick up on things that appeal to him and with me its weather pattens. Sad but true.

If you have ever met a person who knows stuff about stuff that is so far out of the norm that it mystifies you, someone so good at his job perhaps he can see things coming so far down the line that he has it fixed before you even realise what day it is?

Stuff you can't explain?

Well I am like that with some aspects of geophysics.
It's fun but there is no money in it.

So I'm thinking this sign equates to… and I generally tend to forget. But not to worry the window is in my bedroom. I'll see it faking me out so often I will get annoyed by it.

So I compose a terse note and send it off to a Usenet group.

If you don't know what Usenet is it is a place where fanatics gather to discuss things that don't matter, with people who don't matter, rather like a discussion group can form in an hospital ward and prison recreation room. (Having not much else to do, men tend to solve the problems preventing world peace and etcetera.

Well, Usenet is like that.
Only as you might imagine, the Alt.fan.kook forums are rather poorly supported by people inclined to listen to anyone not themselves. And there aren't all that many kooks who are themselves, to coin a phrase.

So I tend to post rather forlorn text to uk.sci.weather. It's a lonely life but, from time to time, interesting.

I posted this recently:

http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_thread/thread/7c40d9461b6d12f9#

And I promised myself I would take care of business.

You ever go to the market and find a nut case shouting his mouth off like the Beatles song: Fool on the hill?
You might pay attention in passing for a minute or two then shake your head and walk away?

The only conversation such a person will get is from another raving loonatic.
Usenet isn't like that.

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13 thoughts on “Diary of an optimist (cracked ideas, windows and computers.)

  1. I forgot to mention, I also posted the thread to uk.d-i-y:#5.From: "Natsman" <Chris.ka…@removethisJerrymander.co.uk>Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2006 11:25:48 +0100Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 11:25 am Subject: Re: Here we goCoincidentally, I too suffer from one of these "shot" double glazed units, in a fixed window immediately below a transom (which is always open).I have noticed that in colder weather, any condensation is restricted to the lower area between the panes. However, as it warms up outside and particularly once the sun has got around to that side of the house, misting and condensation seems to be evident all over the whole area.Pain in the backside. [Pains in backsides are a traditional international teaching aid.]#6.Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather, alt.talk.weather, uk.d-i-yFrom: Chris Bacon <chrispba…@thai.com>Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2006 11:55:34 +0100Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 11:55 am Subject: Re: Here we goReplace it, then. That's why you're talking to people in uk.d-i-y, isn't it?Is it a plastic window, metal, or timber? #7.From: meow2…@care2.comDate: 20 Apr 2006 04:49:47 -0700Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 12:49 pm Subject: Re: Here we goOr drill the glass and dry it #8.From: "Fray Bentos" <f…@bentos.com>Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2006 12:21:05 GMTLocal: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 1:21 pm Subject: Re: Here we goI have been thinking about this for a while now. I have a large d[ouble] g[lazed] window. about 8ft by 5ft. Just how easy is it to drill a small hole in the opposing diagonal corners and let it dry out in summer then put a small bung of silicon in the holes to seal again?is it do-able ? Am I likely to crack the glass completely and need a new unit ? I'd rather repair (as it's so big and expensive I guess) [Drill into the sealant/adhesive as far as the silica gel and replace some of it. They are small beads of anhydrous crystals that absorb moisture from the air and are put in the aluminium spacers to dry the air sealed in the glass.They fail when the seal fails after years of constant air pressure changes due to the weather and because of temperature gradients also caused by the weather.(And in my case because I was shooting at cats from my bedroom with a cat a pault and trying not to be seen by the neighbours.(So what else are you supposed to do with a catapault, then?))Seal with standard silicon adhesive but smear some all over the sealant around the window as you need to find the leak.Such a repair -if it works, is only temporary at best.]#9.From: Guy King <guy.k…@zetnet.co.uk>Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2006 15:06:55 +0100Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 3:06 pm Subject: Re: Here we goDepends for one thing whether it's toughened or not. If it is, you ain't [got] a hope of drilling a hole.#10.From: Ian Stirling <r…@mauve.demon.co.uk>Date: 20 Apr 2006 17:35:33 GMTLocal: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 6:35 pm Subject: Re: Here we goThere is, it's relatively easy, you just first anneal the pane.This is pretty tricky – you've got to keep pretty good temperature control (+-10C IIRC), ramp it up and down slowly, not to mention not having any dust in there. But then, think of all the other handy jobs you could find for an annealing furnace. #11.From: Chris Bacon <chrispba…@thai.com>Date: Thu, 20 Apr 2006 21:40:42 +0100Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 9:40 pm Subject: Re: Here we goYou can drill toughened glass, you just have to be careful (and very slow), and use a fine abrasive and rod as ?? ago. I don't know why I included all that here. But it has got it all out of the way.For now at least.

  2. Back on track:12. From: "Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw…@hotmail.com>Date: 20 Apr 2006 23:06:25 -0700Local: Fri, Apr 21 2006 7:06 am Subject: Re: Here we go>> I am just referring to an anomaly that turned up last year during the > North Atlantic hurricane season. Coastal Western/Northern Europe seemed > to get frosts or fogs when they occurred. Or visa versa. Or rather: > Due to them having the same root cause. Which engine is also responsible for earthquakes. Sadly I have not been able to push the envelope further open. Yet. [Can you believe that after all that time doing this research I hadn't realised the importance of the Greenland High?I knew about the North Atlantic cycle but hadn't fitted it in with that anomalous behaviour for the extremely well known Icelandic Low.The Icelandic Low and it's accompanying Azores (the United States of American met offices use the term Bermudan) High are semi permanent profiles in the North Atlantic pressure charts. Large pressure differences in them indicate the state of the weather cycle. It never occurred to me that the daily fluctuation over Greenland was its key.]Here is the most striking geophysical phenomenon that arrived with this present spell:6.1 Mag 2006/04/21 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KORYAKIA, RUSSIA These first [quakes, of magnitude] 5.1; 4.9; 4.6; 5.2; 4.5; 4.5; 5.1 and 5.1 are all in the same region. And the day before: 2006/04/20 5.4; and 7.7 Mag Koryakia, RussiaCoincidence? My opinion is the same value as yours. And of course the weight of opinion is that it is just a coincidence.  But as with miracles. Timing is everything. [I was not claiming to be working miracles I was just being facetious. And anyway the large earthquake (7.7M.) was before I posted the thread starter and nowhere near where I wrote about.]

  3. Here is someone I might have been nicer to:Post #3. From: Richard Dixon <rdngemail@^spam^yahoo.co.uk>Date: 20 Apr 2006 08:19:52 GMTLocal: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 9:19 am Subject: Re: Here we go[Usenet arranges most threads with the oldest posts quoted having the most chevrons. This is so that a casual reader can follow who said what to whom and when.]> Forecast for either southern N Atlantic or Australian NW Territory = > cyclone(s) Do you mean tropical cyclones are forecast in the next week for Atlantic basin or just over the summer?I think the latter is standard, as for the former, where's the incipient system you talk about? [Would it have killed me to answer him properly?]Post #4. From: "Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw…@hotmail.com>Date: 20 Apr 2006 02:31:08 -0700Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 10:31 am Subject: Re: Here we go>> Do you mean tropical cyclones are forecast in the next week for Atlantic > basin or just over the summer? I think the latter is standard, as for the > former, where's the incipient system you talk about?No. I am just referring to an anomally that turned up last year during the North Atlantic hurricane season. Coastal Western/Northern Europe seemed to get frosts or fogs when they occurred. Or visa versa. Or rather: Due to them having the same root cause. [I suppose what I was thinking at the time was perfectly reasonable. To me it seemed obvious.I hadn't realised that I was dealing with reasonably astute men who had been conditioned to believe that contemporary science was up to the mark and not solely justified by computer models of the upper atmosphere.]I am guessing that fog in China has a similar anomaly seen with Australian cyclones. (On the Queensland side). [Which is to say the nearest significant land mass in the southern Asian Pacific was reacting to whatever was also causing the window to mist over, mists in Europe generally (in the news) and mists in China (which I had to Google for information about.)]It has to be a guess, since China is run by secretive criminals that make George Bush's regime seem like a pack of monkeys.(What am I talking about, George Bush's regime is a pack of monkeys.) [Which is to say the politics of China forbade the widespread use of weather-forecasting as a lot of Chinese are very capable of drawing all sorts of conclusions about the state of construction-engineering in China from national weather and other news reports.]A little off the present topic: I seem to have a high tech version of the Victorian(?) weather glass. One of my double glazing units has failed, giving a variety of optical effects that on one occasion of fine weather cleared up entirely. Now all I need to do is find out how to read it. A weather glass is a mixture of camphor, water and alcohol.[It forms a crystaline suspension that depends on the weather or some unexplained planetary phenomenon for its morphology.]The state of the suspension indicates the type of weather, which in Britain, broadly speaking, means Scandinavian High, Atlantic Low and ridges, cols or troughs. The reason I mention it is that it is particularly noticeable [the suspension of the organic crystals] when the weather is a bit like this. Wouldn't you think it more likely to show up strongly in a downpour such as yesterday or the day prior? Or perhaps I never looked? Odd, I just went to look at [the suspect double glazed unit… I didn't have a suspension to compare that with] again and it seemed to have cleared up except for a faint patch about the size of my hand on one side of the bottom.It doesn't work after all. Then I noticed the drizzle.

  4. From a thread opened 29th April 2006(I posted this in 2006; shortly afterwards I gave up in disgust at my inability to do what I had accomplished in 2005: Forecast the weather.)Here are the introductory posts. Normally you write a message and hope someone reads it. And that someone will post a reply.Nobody replies to my stuff. I had no reason to suppose it was even being read.*******Post 1. Forecast for Britain = mists. Forecast for either southern N Atlantic or Australian NW Territory = cyclone(s)And it could be an early start for the hurricane season. [Words in these parenthesis are my recent thoughts on the subject.]Post #2. From: Weatherlawyer <weatherlawyer@gmail.com>Date: 20 Apr 2006 00:18:41 -0700Local: Thurs, Apr 20 2006 8:18 am Subject: Re: Here we go>> Could be an early start for the hurricane season. There is nothing showing up on the [tropical storm reporting web sites] Hawaiian site [JTWC] nor Eric Habich's yet. The Wisconsin site is interesting if only that the satellite watching [Tropical Storm] Monica develop, stalled again: > http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/cmoll/cmoll.html[You have to put a chevron “page break” in front of links on some Usenet "readers" to stop the link munging.]It does seem a precursor to these thing IMO. I have been told that it isn't. Maybe it's those HAARPies? [The Wisconsin page shows a cloudscape for the whole planet over a number of days. When an interesting situation develops the powers that be move a weather satellite to to a better position to cover it. Naturally defence departments won't issue statements about that.]****So that was it. A pretty harmless couple of posts, I would have thought.

  5. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    From a thread opened 29th April 2006

    The thread was actually started on the 19th of April. See what I mean about my inattention to details?Cross posting is a problem with thread cohesion as other posters too may cross post and more often than not edit out the cross posting.Another foible to watch out for is that on some "news-readers" a poster may specify that his post should not be stored for more than a few days. The original post may then be deleted. (He may specify the date of deletion, usually 5 days, however there is nothing to prevent a body copying his post and thus preserving it.)Even Google allows this removal from their servers. I don't know if they hold onto the messages behind the scenes. They have command of everyone's private details in the same way that Joseph Stalin had and the USA's NSA do.(One may apply to the server owners whom you post through, to have a post removed at any time. It may still be housed in other servers. I don't know how they would deal with such a request.)Anyway you can follow the whole thing for yourselves in the original from this link:https://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/a312e65b50b378eb?hl=en&tvc=1&q=uk.sci.weather%3A+%22here+we+go%22+2006Once a certain "sell by date" has been reached, it becomes impossible to post on the thread anymore. You can reply to authors if they still keep up the address and if it isn't "munged" (mashed until no gooded -to foil spammers.)*******I am beginning to lose interest in this exercise. I only resurrected the thing after a recent discussion about the link between earthquakes and tropical storms.In the case of this thread it seems the major earthquake involved occurred first and the subsequent (even larger one) waited until I wasn't looking. (But then it seems even Monica passed me by.)

  6. Post number 20. From Harold Brooks [I wonder if an apology would be accepted?]I know I shouldn't bother to follow up to your annoying remarks, but this is a complete misrepresentation.I think the records should be checked but the entire record should be checked systematically.You don't go off and find some instance where two events occurred near the same time as each other and claim there's a connection. You look at all of the records and find out when they occur together, when they don't occur together and when neither of them occurs.You also have to have some predefined notion of what you're calling a prediction of an event. Saying "something bad is going to happen somewhere soon" is close to meaningless.For example, magnitude 6.7 (or larger) earthquakes happen, on average, about once every two weeks in the world. By this time of year, on average, there are five tornadoes per day in the US, so that one of the news items pointed to in the Google search above, points to a day that was less tornadic than normal.[I wonder what day that was. I bet it was the day that Monica crossed the Gulf and started heading for the records.]You have to have the relationship defined in a testable way, with clear forecasts and a way to determine how many things you should get right by chance, based on the definition of the forecast and the event.[That's all very well when you have a fairly good office in NCAR and all the computer technicians in some of the finest universities in the world helping to keep you online but I was just using a broken window pane, remember.And struggling with a duff computer.]The Farmer's Almanac in the US claims to get 80% of its forecasts correct over a year in advance.The claim is correct because they make the forecast areas large enough and the forecasts vague enough that you'd expect them to get 80% right by chance. There's no skill to that. It's just random guessing.[What's that got to do with me and my experience with weather glasses?]Until you define your "technique" in such a way that other people can independently evaluate it (that requires well-defined forecasts and events), it's not particularly interesting or scientific.You started this thread with:"Forecast for Britain = mists. Forecast for either southern N Atlantic or Australian NW Territory = cyclone(s) Could be an early start for the hurricane season.[And I was perfectly correct as far as the natural phenomenon/would be disaster were concerned wasn't I?IIRC there was a pretty downbeat hurricane season in the North Atlantic though.I was not expecting praise, not even interest.]You then added: "Coastal Western/Northern Europe seemed to get frosts or fogs when they occurred. Or visa versa. Or rather: Due to them having the same root cause."[The root cause is the moon which has a planet wide effect and the rest of the quote is a reference to my experience with weatherlore. I have explained that quite frequently.]How many days a year are there mists in Britain (frosts or fogs in coastal western/northern Europe)?How many of them occur at the same time as hurricanes?How many don't?[Why is he asking me?He's the one with access to the data. And I'll bet he could have got half a dozen school leavers to do the job of looking it all up for him to write a paper about it too.]How many hurricanes occur without mists in Britain (frosts or fogs in coastal western/northern Europe)?[Very few I imagine. I suppose it all depends on what oceans are being specified. I take it he was being generic with the term "hurricanes". Pedants require the term cyclones instead, for some oceans.]Until you've looked at the records to answer those questions, you're just making noise. If there's something there, until you've got some physical reasoning to back that up, you've got an interesting, but not necessarily useful tidbit.Harold[For what definition of useful?I found it exhilarating, never mind interesting. As for useful, I don't know how many people died through acts of god whilst all the above was going on but I think it is useful to know they are not acts of god.And as far as blood-guilt goes (to quote a biblical phrase) I for one am innocent. Classical/contemporary science isn't.So they can stick that up their arses and blow on it.]

  7. Major earthquakes during April and May 2006Magnitude; day; month; latitude; longitude.6.5 M. 07th. 04 S. 16.5 176.97.6 M. 20th. 04 60.9 167.0 <<<<<<6.6 M. 29th. 04 60.4 167.56.7 M. 30th. 04 S. 27.0 W. 71.06.5 M. 30th. 04 S. 27.2 W. 71.08.0 M. 03th. 05 S. 20.1 W. 174.17.4 M. 16th. 05 S. 31.8 W. 179.36.8 M. 16th. 05 0.0 97.0.6.6 M. 22th. 05 60.7 165.76.5 M. 28th. 05 S. 5.7 151.1So it appears I did catch the major quake. And by a day. If the world had been waiting for it, those involved would have been ready.No?Shortly afterwards Super-cyclone Monica span up. So a reasonable window would have been far too small and a vast field would have been a much better window to coin another phrase.

  8. Post number 19 refers to my original post:The spell that the OP referred to has melded into another one whose time is more relevant to the orient. And in harmony with whatever harmonics are involved: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=uk&q=volcano&btnG=Search+News And in keeping with the anomaly of British temperatures funding tornadic activity (sick) in the States: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=uk&ie=UTF-8&q=Tornado&btnG=Sear… A certain Harold Brooks sees no reason to check the records but I am certain that these things are pretty much a given.[I really do wish I had been nicer but evidently I fell out with the tornado expert in some other thread and was still upset over it.]In the meantime my computer is shot and I am using my old one which is not set up with my bookmarks the way I'd like. But it does have a plethora of links I thought I'd lost so … I'll be back in my bragging and obnoxious form as soon as I get organised again. (I wonder if god is trying to tell me something.)[It seems that whenever there is an interesting phenomenon on the go, I end up unable to follow it closely because of an inability with the internet. I think over the years I have experienced every possible permutation of problems getting online during a catastrophe.]

  9. #25:Weatherlawyer wrote: > It has been an interesting month tectonically. A fair bit of volcanicity > as well as the earthquakes. Lots of Mag. sixes and a tremor not even placed > on the NEIC sites that killed one miner and trapped 2 more in a > goldmine in Oz: > What will be interesting is that the present (similar) spells have run > for a number of weeks and there is always a heightened period in the > change over of such runs, when storms meteorologic or seismological > tend toward the extreme.[When a series of spells produces much the same weather the end of the spells occurs with a sizeable earthquake or some such geo-phenomenon.]Mags 7.9; 5.1 and 5.4 Tonga.God damn it! There is a lot to learn. > You ain't seen nothin, yet. Either that, or it all arrived early. IIRC we have about 8 Mag 7+ quakes each year. We've had two so far. I wasn't paying much attention to the first one but this one came with a bout of cold windy weather followed by a really nice day. Keep an eye open for such changes for the next one, somebody, will you? My computer always goes down or something stupid happens when I aught to be concentrating. I'm not much good at paying attention at the best of times.

  10. And finally:Weatherlawyer wrote: > The BBC weatherforecast is not so optimistic and have also slated misty weather. > It's not unkown to have another 7+Mag quake in the same week as another. > And that Tonga site is still ringing loud and clear. > More likely for a mag 7 or higher to strike on the other side of the earth though. > Still I must say, those so called aftershocks are somewhat persuasive. I have just remembered that the other side of the planet from Tonga and the Fijian Islands is smack dab in the middle of Hurricane territory. Nothing in the news at the moment unless you count a ship in trouble. It doesn't soun like the sort of thing that happens with muzzy thinking though. The likely tornadic / thunder-storm activity has moved from NW to Central Texas. But no more forecasts of mists on the TV. So it is probable it was a false alarm.

  11. I think I wrote him a very nasty email which he wisely sent back unopened, thank goodness. I evidentally didn't reply to him. Two days later I was off again:> Which engine is also responsible for earthquakes. And speaking of which, let me tell you about another anomally I spotted shortly before the Banda Atjeh disaster. It looked rather like this: http://www.weatherzone.com.au/charts/twcGrads.jsp?model=gfs&chart=msl… Only it was off Scandinavia. This one is almost exactly the other side of the planet from it. About 50 to 60 degrees south, by the look of it and 120 or so degrees east. (Just in the shadow zone -if only meteorology would admit them.) Not a place to be flying a kite in a canoe.

  12. #22:Calm, quiet and overcast = problems for someone somewhere.[Weatherlore from Weatherlawyer.]The BBC weathergirl on Friday promised rain for bank holiday Monday.Well it looks like it might be raining this afternoon. I'll just take a toddle around my locale to see what the avian genuses think.[Avian genii of all persuasions can be seen perched and looking at approaching fronts on such occasions. I don't remember what they were doing.]Post 23 was a double of #22.Post #24:Weatherlawyer wrote: > Could be an early start for the hurricane season. > (Or not as the case may be.) It has een an interesting month tectonically. A fair bit of volcanicity as well as the earhtquakes. Lots of sixes and a tremor not even placed on the Neic sites that killed one miner and trapped 2 more in a goldmine in Oz: Brant Webb, 37, and Todd Russell, 34, were trapped April 25 by a cave-in that killed another miner. Webb and Russell apparently were saved by a slab of rock that fell onto the cage of their cherry-picker and prevented smaller rocks from hitting them after a small earthquake. In January, 14 miners died in two accidents at mines in West Virginia. In Mexico, 65 miners died in February after an explosion trapped them underground. However, in Canada, 72 potash miners walked away from an underground fire and toxic smoke in January after being locked down overnight in airtight chambers with oxygen, food and water. You ain't seen nothin, yet. There is a change of spells due with the lunar phase on Friday, 5th May. At least two fine spells. Not that there will be much difference in the SW of England. (Or not as the case may be.) What will be interesting is that the present (similar) spells have run for a number of weeks and there is always a heightened period in the change over of such runs, when storms meteorologic or seismological tend toward the extreme.

  13. #26:Weatherlawyer wrote: > Keep an eye open for such changes for the next one, somebody, will you? > My computer always goes down or something stupid happens when I aught > to be concentrating. I'm not much good at paying attention at the best of times. Such as today perhaps? Looks like being another scorcher. It started out cool and dull. Nothing like the near gale we had a few days back though. Anyone looking at the Atlantic map? Anyone there? Hello. This is Weatherlawyer calling earth… hello…#27:> Weatherlawyer wrote: > > Keep an eye open for such changes for the next one, somebody, will you? > > My computer always goes down or something stupid happens when I aught > > to be concentrating. I'm not much good at paying attention at the best of times. > Such as today perhaps? > Looks like being another scorcher. It started out cool and dull. > Nothing like the near gale we had a few days back though. Anyone > looking at the Atlantic map? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ Posting of Tornado watch and interestingly, in the next state, winter storms. Or I haven't quite got the right idea with the codes for that map. Pink is for Winter Weather Advisory, is it not? Anyway, the new phase -only lasting a week or so, is for fine weather. The BBC weatherforecast is not so optimistic and have also slated misty weather. And we all know what that means, don't I? It's not unkown to have another 7+Mag quake in the same week or so as another. And tat Tonga site is still ringing loud and clear. More likely for a mag 7 or higher to strike on the oter side of the earht though. Still I must say, those so called aftershocks are somewhat persuasive.

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