Mage School 102

I've just been to a writer's group and told to make my stuff more accessible by coddling it in chocalte and silver paper. …

That's not going to happen.

Effing Microsoft crap from the public library computers. I'd have had all this online by now….
And I still have'nt opened Notepad!

So because I have only 26 minutes left, Here is the first instalment warts and all:


The problem with charts is their formatting changes with the internet and from computer to computer. I am going to experiment with PDF and Opera as most of my stuff requires the use of charts. With a PDF file you at least get the same image whatever the computer being used.

Unfortunately you lose a lot of functionality even with Linux which can cotain tools to copy and paste some unprotected PDF files.

I do not like to use anything that isn't universally free. My stuff was given to me freely and quite a lot of it came from sources so majestic it makes me think that admitting it will put people off. But when you have been given a gift you have to live with the consequences.

THere was a prophet once in ancient Israel who was given a very unpopular commission. But he was given it from god so he must have thought: WOW!

Just like I do -or did.

Then the unpopularity of the effort and the immensity of it slowy got him and he refused to continue.

But it was in his bones by then and he couldn't stop.

You have been warned!

These are charts of sliding scales. In NO WAY do they indicate the terrible powers involved.

Consider the power in a soliton.
A soliton is a wave. Any single wave.
It might be created in a bath or a swiming pool.

It's easy to make waves in a bath but you can't see for long any you might create in a swimming pool.
They fade to nothing so quickly.
This fading away is the inverse square law that so attracted Newton when he had a few years off.

Power dissipates in a mathematical ratio between amount and distance. Light disperses in proportion to the area it spreads out to; as you will have seen if you put a flashlamp or torch up against a wall on a dark night.

And energy once released will dissipate as fast as it can.

So a wave holding its course and height must contain some sort of devilish device to enable it to hang in there.

Say it is 2 feet high and stretches halfway along the beach a mile or so. It is roughly semicircular.
So you can work out how much water there is in it.

And there's more.

Since I am no good at maths I will leave that to you.
If you are a clever bugger you can write and tell me the dimensions of an huge Hawaiian surfer's tunnel.


8 thoughts on “Mage School 102

  1. Note:The Beaufort scale had been known for thousands of years. It is based on the winds and sea states that cause ships to alter sail and change course. Designated by the needs of a frigate in the Royal Navy, the Beaufort scale turned out to be logarithmic, its intensities are on a “sliding scale”.This sliding scale is met with throughout earth science. The impacts of earthquakes on buildings for instance is given as a sliding scale.Pun not intended.Whilst I am fascinated by earthquakes and find them an exciting challenge, I am perfectly well aware they can be tragic. The same is true for storms and all other geo-phenomena.Until recently I attempted to align the impact of an hurricane with the subsequent earthquakes. It was comparatively recently (following the MegaQuake in Japan in 2011) that I realised it was a combination of weather systems and their relative centres around the earth that set the parameters for an epicentre and its magnitude.Have I lost you?To some I am going to seem patronising and to others just boring but to some it is a way into an interesting hobby so:By sayin I was aligning the two phenomena; I wished to compare them. I wanted them to fit together.I thought that when a storm hit the shore, it splattered like a bullet hitting a stone. And the force was equal in every way to a place in the earth where it back out as an earthquake.It seemed reasonable to suppose that an F1 hurricane could provide an >M6 earthquake.I still don't have much trouble with that idea -except of course for their timing.Their "first cause" is the same.Therefore they have to happen at the same time.And of course the power involved means all the hurricane has to arrive at the epicentre and the earthquake must wait and build up.But power dissipates immediately if it can. So what is causing the hold up?Sometimes it can be many days after the hurricane dissipates before the earthquake strikes. How do I explain that?Sometime it takes weeks, an impossible connection.

  2. Conventional land and ship based instruments are not rated above the wind velocities of an F4. Some of the strongest anemometers in use are rated up to gusts at the top end of the velocities met in the F4 category but will fail when the wind is at that speed constantly.(The definition of an F5.)The wind scales are estimated from speeds over a period of ten minutes, gusts may be considerably stronger but for a far shorter duration. An anemometer is designed to be hit by a storm. Its moving parts are intended to throw off the worst of the battering but they are intentionally placed "in harm's way".To get higher estimates, satellite telemetry is used:Infra-red images of upper and lower levels of the storm are compared and a "pressure differential" calculated using a scale devised by Dvorak.From this and subsequent damage data from previous storms it is possible to gauge the wind velocities. The scale used for Dvorak calculations is called "Current Intensity."(For the pedantic; there is a difference between wind speeds and velocities.In physics the term "speed" indicates direction as well as velocity. Velocity is a slightly more abstract term. Personally I couldn't give a wet fart for such distinctions. (In fact, I may even have them the wrong way around, I don't care enough to find out.) In a rotating fluid such finites are important if you have the ability -and someone is paying you to analyse them.)The same applies to the term “wind-strength”.With different pressures, the wind-strength at any particular velocity will be different. As the wind increases, more air is entrained in the surface of the water and thus the capacity of the sea to do damage changes.Vessels will “float” lower in the water and wave velocities will vary from top to bottom so considerably that a vessel not capable of steering will be turned (spun or rolled or both. A boat can move in three diresctions and it only their design and careful stowage that keeps them safe.)As far as the physics of fluids is known, air trapped in water radically changes its behaviour. You only have to watch surf for a short while before you realise that incoming waves are much larger than outgoing ones. So where does the volume go?If the volume were not to change radically, the incoming surf would not be able to make land until the outgoing surf had got out of the way. It is probably this interaction that is responsible for wave heights in storms. (Of course, with all storms their positions and strengths are governed by the moon, hence they are tidal.)Various illogical theories have been given for the abilities of low pressure to raise water levels in storm surges. If it was directly possible for low pressure to raise the water, it would do so with all similar conditions.When a wave hits the shore line the air in the water is removed and the volume thus decreases and the weight of the mass increases. Thus a powerful rip tide can ensue. It is the rip tide that is responsible for the way debris is carried along a shore. When the wave comes ashore the rotating capacity of the incoming surf is imparted to the outgoing water.Once a direction for egress is established, the current can be quite strong. A swimmer caught in a rip tide should always maintain a 90 degree heading to the shore. Headed that way, it will not make a difference to his progress through the water to the shore, though he will have further to walk once he lands.It is supposed that the 12 Sherman tanks assigned to the beaches of “Omaha” on the Normandy coast of France on D-Day in 1944, piloted by soldiers with no marine experience, followed the directions given by their HQ to aim for the church spire.The assault took place in a lull during a stormy spell. Caught in the drift engineered by the stormy weather and cursed with the poor seamanship of the captain of the landing craft, all the tanks were lost at sea. Aware of the situation offices on board the flagship changed the orders form launching the tanks off-shore orders to take the tanks closer. Apparently the captain(s) never received the command.It takes a speed difference between a ship and the sea of about 5 knots for the rudder to become effective. This is the reason that sailers have to “wait for the tide” to “set sail”. An ebbing tide will help them get far enough off-shore to pick up enough wind to steer by.For the same reason, large vessels with engines rated at many thousands of horsepower have to use tugs to negotiate ports.A motor vessel can maintain a speed differential between the sea and the rudder so long as the engines work. Flying spray prevented the battleship *** from getting its boilers alight when the captain realised an approaching squall was going to put his ship at risk. Naval regulations prevented him from more prudence but did not prevent a court martial blaming him.A “sailer” is a sailing ship. Other designations are: SS for Steam and MV or MS for motor vessel or ship (colloquially a diesel, though the fuel used (bunker oil) is more like asphalt than oil.)I know I should use less hard to understand words such as “egress” when I could use more easily understood words such as “escape” or “way out” but like the way the paragraph sounds when I read it back to myself:Once a direction for egress is established, the current can be quite strong. A swimmer caught in a rip tide should always maintain a 90 degree heading to the shore. Headed that way, it will not make a difference to his progress through the water to the shore, though he will have further to walk once he lands.And I don't wish to spoil it by rewriting it as:Once a way out is established, the current can be quite strong. A swimmer caught in a rip tide should always maintain a 90 degree heading to the shore. Headed that way, it will not make a difference to his progress through the water to the shore, though he will have further to walk once he lands.Or:Once a direction for escape is established, the current can be quite strong. A swimmer caught in a rip tide should always maintain a 90 degree heading to the shore. Headed that way, it will not make a difference to his progress through the water to the shore, though he will have further to walk once he lands.Such a current is called an “undertow”. They generally move in the same direction every time; or rather: The direction of the current is always in the same direction.Such phenomena have been explained as the Coriolis effect even though it is not a “force” according to pure physics. Nor is it an effect that can be felt.As an effect it is ineffective to the point where it defies logic.Such a explanation of it is always missed in text books. I fact these days when text books are not teaching tools so much as test primers it is common to find reference to the Coriolis Effect AS a force!Schools that buy such products must have a very low quota of physicists to their credit. Maybe they make up for it by producing substantially more of their country's story tellers.

  3. Saffir-Simpson Hurricane ScaleCategory Wind Speed; Pressure1 65 to 83 knots; 74 to 95 mph; 119 to 153 kph ; > 980 mb Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal. No real damage to building structures. Damage primarily to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal road flooding and minor pier damage. Hurricanes Allison of 1995 and Danny of 1997 were Category One hurricanes at peak intensity.2 84 to 95 knots; 96 to 110 mph; 154 to 177 kph ; 980 – 965 mbStorm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal. Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings. Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some trees blown down. Considerable damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers. Coastal and low-lying escape routes flood 2-4 hours before arrival of the hurricane centre. Small craft in unprotected anchorages break moorings. Hurricane Bertha of 1996 was a Category Two hurricane when it hit the North Carolina coast, while Hurricane Marilyn of 1995 was a Category Two Hurricane when it passed through the Virgin Islands.3 96 to 113 knots; 111 to 130 mph; 178 to 209 kph; 964 – 945 mbStorm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtain-wall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane centre. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Roxanne of 1995 and Fran of 1996 were Category Three hurricanes at landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and in North Carolina, respectively.4 114 to 134 knots 131 to 155 mph 210 to 249 kph 944- 920 mbStorm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal. More extensive curtain-wall failures with some complete roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane centre. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore. Terrain lower than 10 ft above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential reas as far inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Luis of 1995 was a Category Four hurricane while moving over the Leeward Islands. Hurricanes Felix and Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.5 135+ knots 155+ mph 249+ kph < 920 mbStorm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane centre. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required. There were no Category Five hurricanes in 1995, 1996, or 1997. Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone of record.

  4. I'll have to edit this all some other time.Sorry about that.Something alive out there in the deep, brought these things to life. Not just one of them and not just to send them ashore on your beach.They travel in all directions and go to all shores.If you throw a stone in the water at half a brick a pound, how much water will it displace?Only the volume of the stone. But it will move as much water as the force you gave it.And by the time the ripples have spread out to nothing, they are so very small.Ocean waves are no more than something caused by tides and most likely, an F3 or 4 on the Beaufort scale.This is the beaufort scale. It rises with an intensity that is unimaginable so I am not going to try to describe it. There is a legend with each line so you can think about how much time and energy you would have to put in to accomplish the half of it.If it just looks like a jumble of figuers blame everybody trying to keep the band on the same page and Microsoft for attempting to keep everyone else from using anyone else's page.Or me.It might be my fault but I doubt it.Try saving the page and pasting it to a text file such as a word processor.Sometimes just using the quote tool in the comments section is enough to render it useful.Then copy and past to whatever you have (NotePad or something if you have no office tools.) Libre and Open Office are free for the price of downloading something for nothing.There are smaller finer tools such as Opera Notes and gEdit, an HTML file editor and an infinite number of individual/stand alone word processors such as AbiWord.Office suites are hungry beasts but handy. And tend to look after your work better than you do, unless you are really careless (like me.)BeaufortNumber/Force Wind Speed Description over: Land / Sea mph km/hr knots 0 <1 <1 <1 Calm Still, calm air, smoke will rise vertically. Water is mirror-like.1 1-3 1-5 1-3 Light Air Rising smoke drifts, wind vane is inactive. Small ripples appear on water surface.2 4-7 6-11 4-6 Light Breeze Leaves rustle, can feel wind on your face, wind vanes begin to move. Small wavelets develop, crests are glassy.3 8-12 12-19 7-10 Gentle Breeze Leaves and small twigs move, light weight flags extend. Large wavelets, crests start to break, some whitecaps.4 13-18 20-28 11-16 Moderate Breeze Small branches move, raises dust, leaves and paper. Small waves develop, becoming longer, whitecaps.5 19-24 29-38 17-21 Fresh Breeze Small trees sway. White crested wavelets (whitecaps) form, some spray.6 25-31 39-49 22-27 Strong Breeze Large tree branches move, telephone wires begin to "whistle", umbrellas are difficult to keep under control. Larger waves form, white-caps prevalent, spray.7 32-38 50-61 28-33 Moderate or Near Gale Large trees sway, becoming difficult to walk. Larger waves develop, white foam from breaking waves begins to be blown.8 39-46 62-74 34-40 Gale or Fresh Gale Twigs and small branches are broken from trees, walking is difficult. Moderately large waves with blown foam.9 47-54 75-88 41-47 Strong Gale Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs. High waves (6 meters), rolling seas, dense foam, Blowing spray reduces visibility.10 55-63 89-102 48-55 Whole Gale or Storm Trees are broken or uprooted, building damage is considerable. Large waves (6-9 meters), overhanging crests, sea becomes white with foam, heavy rolling, reduced visibility.11 64-72 103-117 56-63 Violent Storm Extensive widespread damage. Large waves (9-14 meters), white foam, visibility further reduced.12 73+ 118+ 64+ Hurricane Extreme destruction, devastation. Large waves over 14 meters, air filled with foam, sea white with foam and driving spray, little visibility.

  5. The Coriolis Effect works like this:The world moves at 1000 miles an hour at the equator and hurricanes are east winds therefore the movement of the earth under the atmosphere must be imparting an eastwards shift.We know what causes hurricanes. They arise when the temperature of the sea beneath them reaches 25 degrees Centigrade. They are east winds, therefore the direction they take must be due to the planet spinning away from the atmosphere above it.There are simple calculations for the effect and show almost exactly how much drift the effect “engenders”. (Causes.)When confronted with a set of maths that appears to work almost every time, it is difficult to refute such a belief. But that is is just another mysticism is plain when you drop something from an aircraft. Where it lands is governed by the weight of the package; its bulk and shape and the aeroplane’s speed and direction at the time of release.And the directions, pressures and speeds of the winds it encounters on the way down.If you don't believe me check with any of the schools and colleges of bombing innocent civilians for the sake of their politics and or religion.Or their oil.Another problem met with by the honest enquirer is how hurricanes go in the opposite direction at higher latitudes.Apparently renaming the storms in the upper reaches of the North Atlantic satisfies this conundrum.The temperature differences (gradient) encountered in the west winds of the 60 degree parallel (latitude) is only three degrees not the five required for southern climes. Such storms are referred to as extra tropical. That is they are not in the tropics.So that's all right then.I am not certain how the Coriolis nonforce takes effect with west winds but it is an interesting unline of research. I eagerly await an explanation. Perhaps if I been a more courteous person asking the stupid questions I would have been given more help understanding the answer.You catch more wasps with honey.Why would I want to catch wasps?I'd rather have an answer to the question:How does an hurricane know how to build up local temperatures in or near the tropis so that they can form?Part of the answer to that is that the upper atmosphere has to be calm for an hurricane to form. And cross winds (shear) with dampen the effect of Coriolis apparently.Thus a warm pool can build up and when the water gets its head of steam, a vigorous chain of events takes place known as an adiabatic (self contained) rotation.Warm air rises.Warm moist air rises fast.When it rises it cools.At a certain height the warm moist air become cold dry air and begins to fall.As it falls it warms.As it warms it picks up the moisture from the cooling air below it.Gradually a line of cells extends from the bottom up.The storm moves east and leaves behind it a colder sea.More or less the same thing happens with storms in the northern hemisphere above 40 to 45 degrees N.What happens to the storms caught in between tropical and extratropical latitudes?Generally they tend to die in a process called cyclosis.Basically once a storm peaks it starts to die.It's very hard to maintain a storm. Sliding scales and dissipation, remember?Personally I would have said it is impossible.See if you can guess why before I post the answer in a few days time.Thank you for your attention. Now go and think.

  6. Dvorak Current Intensity ChartThe Dvorak technique is a method using enhanced Infrared and/or visible satellite imagery to quantitatively estimate the intensity of a tropical system.CI — Current IntensityMWS — Mean Wind SpeedMSLP — Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in MillibarsCI Number MWS (Knots) MSLP (Atlantic) MSLP (Pacific)1 25 Knots1.5 25 Knots2 30 Knots 1009 mb 1000 mb2.5 35 Knots 1005 mb 997 mb3 45 Knots 1000 mb 991 mb3.5 55 Knots 994 mb 984 mb4 65 Knots 987 mb 976 mb4.5 77 Knots 979 mb 966 mb5 90 Knots 970 mb 954 mb5.5 102 Knots 960 mb 941 mb6 115 Knots 948 mb 927 mb6.5 127 Knots 935 mb 914 mb7 140 Knots 921 mb 898 mb7.5 155 Knots 906 mb 879 mb8 170 Knots 890 mb 858 mbI promis to put the spaces in next time I'm online screw Bill Gates Co. Limited.

  7. Cyclogenesis (storm building) and cyclosis (storm dying)Everything has got to start somewhere.The general pattern of earth's winds can be seen in the infra red satellite images kindly provided for us by the Wisconsin University:They come ashore from the Pacific along the beaches of the west coast of North America and travel over the Rockies to the plains on the other side. They hit the Rockies as Lows and leave them as Highs. Usually they are distributed all over the place (but at regular intervals) nd convert to Lows or insignificant parcels of intermediate pressure. Sometimes they build up as Highs in the North American monsoon.Inevitably they work their way eastwards to the east coast, where they tend to build up their potential either between the Appalachian mountains or off Newfoundland. When they reach a suitable pressure they move out to sea. When they get part way across they tend to halt once more, usually on the western side of the Mid Atlantic Ridge until their pressure builds up or drops down about 5 degrees.With that impetus they appear to be able to cross the sea in peace. When they go ashore they once more come apart at the seams.It is as if they are funnelled into a certain region and then funnelled out again as though fish in a pen or sheep and cattle in a cresh.The region that this phenomenon tends to occur most often is around Iceland and thus it is called the Icelandic Low.Its alta ego is the Bermuda or Azores High.Whichever situation, the weather tends to (cyclonic or anticyclonic) on leaving the continent there is always an increase in the magnitude of seismicity in the Aleutians or Chile at a distance of 80 degrees from the storm centre at the time of its leaving the coast/shelf. (With the data I have, it is not clear which. So as you can see, there is a crying need for more wizards like yours truly in this game.)I was talking to a Kenyan yesterday, a Lauan, obviously I asked him about the weather in his country. It is one of the characteristics of a weather mage that you become unnaturally interested in your craft to the point where your interactions with others seems a little strange. But people like talking about themselves and so talking about “their” weather doesn't upset them over-much at first.(You have to learn to control how eccentric you allow yourself to become and it often slips, especially among friends and acquaintances.)Anyway, he told me that in their monsoons, although it remains unbearably hot (he was wearing a coat, in his shop, in an heatwave) the rain can come down so fast that it is impossible to see well enough to drive.So why don't they have hurricanes there?In fact why is the land not washed away?

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