The Butterfly Effect

Odd behaviour of the MetOffice Model for the North Atlantic this week (11.11.11.) …

Before I show you the charts running on their web site today (12 Nov 2011)
I want you to try and understand this edited quote from the Wikipedia:

The work of Edward Lorenz based in chaos theory. The sensitivity to initial conditions.

He proposed such phenomena could be common in meteorology. In 1961, Lorenz was using a numerical computer model to rerun a weather prediction, when, as a shortcut on a number in the sequence, he entered the decimal .506 instead of entering the full .506127.

[0.000127 different]

The result was a completely different weather scenario. Lorenz published his findings noting that "One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings could change the course of weather forever."

It later became:

Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas?
A domino effect. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different.

The idea is nonsense. The system is set up by our creator in a way that should any one choose to study it diligently, can be forecast.

What has happened is that the models used have a failure rate that is very large for very little error.

Currently the MetO is asking for more and better computing power as the problem of model run errors is severe. They won't get it we would rather give to the people of Greece what the worlds Panamanian Shipping Lines have taken away from there.

Then there is the money the Top Italians have been paying to the Mafia and to their prostitutes. Someone has to stump up for that.

So much for 4 decimal places in the world's economy. And chaos.

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75 thoughts on “The Butterfly Effect

  1. Originally posted by Unasia:

    http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html

    It's brilliant.Bookmarked.Have you tried loading the "Earthquake Age" boxes?Try:0 & 11 & 22 & 33 & 4 etc.All but one date range produces lines of quakes.Of course if there are only 3 or 4 quakes, where else would they be?On the other hand, if they were caused by plumes rising from subduction, where indeed!They would be all over the place and they wouldn't be anywhere near as regular as they are, would they?Na! mi crio. No lo creo.

  2. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    There is no such thing as earthquake forecasting. Certainly not in scientific circles.

    Hello, Weatherlawyer and friends who visit him. Ah, thanks for the tip. You are very generous with your wisdom. For a moment I thought I should be aware of seismic warnigs. Then:"There is no such thing as earthquake forecasting", and realised I Will know when it happens, in the moment it occurs. From this perspective, I will not have to change my schedule for any seismic Recientemente, I read a document which says: Interferometric-Synthetic Aperture Radar, detects slow ground motions and it will help scientists in their research. Moreover, in the longer term, a project called the Global Earthquake Satellite System will determine when the stresses of the earth's crust reach dangerous levels.When?Is it true? Well, for now, I'll delete the word "earthquake" from my list of pre-occupations. Good night, friends. Zero stress. (Just kidding.)

  3. Please forgive me for taking liberties with your post, Sweet thing, but I know you are struggling with the language.If it upsets you that I did that, I apologise and will refrain from doing so again if you prefer.***First off, the Chinese have been looking at all sorts of things to try and predict quakes. They have the only "scientific" institution in the world doing so.Following the Kobe quake a Japanese scientist set out to make his own explorations into something along the same lines. Several eye witnesses to the Kobe quake noticed strange behaviour with their flowers.He did a lot of work analysing such phenomena. Sadly h passed away a few years ago.There are all sorts of earthquakes sensitives in California. Jim Berkland, an 80 yr old, runs the most famous:http://www.syzygyjob.com/index.php?Itemid=35&option=com_smfDonald Eck also in California who posts occasionally on sci.geo.earthquakes, noticed a statistic or was told of one by a neighbour:Hens lay more brown eggs than white ones when there is a local tremor due. (I think that is the colour scheme. It might have it the wrong way around.)Personally, I'd have thought they would lay fewer eggs -and that would have been a signal too.He and Petra Challus post a blog at:http://quakechasers.yolasite.com/Petra is earthquake sensitive and has analysed her premonitions to enable forecasting epicentres.So it can be done.On the other side there are champions for the status quo who harbour a grudge against all novel ideas. They inhabit a shadowland once occupied by the Inquisition. And perform sterling work trolling the Internet setting matters right.Here's a website of one such bright spark:http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/index.htmlI am not saying such people are stupid. You can see that some losers are very clever. And it is nice they have somewhere to get together:http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.geology/topicsBut in the 50 to 60 years that the nuclear test ban treaty has been organising seismometers earth-wide and for all the efforts of geology generally, nothing much of any good has come from the descendants of Lyell:http://www.victorianweb.org/science/lyell.html

  4. I know test bans didn't follow the second world war immediately but espionage certainly did.It is only recently that weather data for the Arctic is being released to the non bellicose.As if submarine warfare between the Russians and the Yanks was ever going to happen.There's some very funny people running the planet. Take a look at the losers in the US Republican party. You'd never guess from what you read that they once had Abraham Lincoln signed up. 🙂

  5. Originally posted by semirami:

    Note: you learn Spanish, please!!!

    I can't even speak my own.I am absolutley hopeless with anything but English. <Sleep mode off>Why didn't anyone tell me it's Friday?</sleep mode on>I've just raced down here 1/2 late for a meeting and found out it doesn't start till tomorrow.And I've missed the farmers market. They do a nice pullets egg there too!Damn!Free range and cheep.I must be going quackers.

  6. Good day, Weatherlawyer! I do not want to pass more time: just a enjoyable conversation and fun, and good manners permit we understand us . I think you like: the people to talks with you, everyone read the posts yours and write a comment in your posts, and also you enjoy some jokes. Personally, I do not write for myself. I'm not asking you to accept stupidly. Neither, there is need to start a war. The truth is that both have us some little problems with the other's language. However, here we are speaking, invisible friend.Well, let's leave this up here. I go to job. Then, I will study the interesting topic of this post yours.Ciao!!!Note: you learn Spanish, please!!!

  7. Originally posted by semirami:

    was??? or friend???

    Google traduce "era" como siervo.Creo que hay una cosa que pasa sobre la letra "A" para que la palabra "amigo".Google translates "was" as servant.I think there is a thing that goes over the letter "A" to make the word "friend".En realidad, no es realmente una palabra más como un término de cariño como amigo o muchacho (y, presumiblemente, muchacha.)Actually it isn't really a word more like a term of affection such as pal or lad (and presumably, lass.)Acabo de darme cuenta pasé todo el día de ayer pensando que era viernes.Nadie no me digas nada!Estropeado mis pronósticos demasiado supongo.Ah, muchacho!I have just realised I spent all day yesterday thinking it was Friday.Nobody don't tell me nothing!Mucked up my forecasts too I presume.Ah, boy. :doh:

  8. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Ah, boy. :doh:

    The Butterfly Effect: Theori Anhrefn – straen waith – ddysgu Cymraeg. I found that Google Translator relate better Spanish-Welsh, and less English-Welsh. Primero: Was vs FriendSegundo: Amigo=friend=ffrindI won't tell you more! :zip: I presume, your forecasts of today were better :yes: Da, lad… Mae'r waith a wnaed!!! …work done :coffee:

  9. What a pity I don't speak Welsh.Welsh would translate into Spanish better than English does because it deals with inanimate objects the same way.English only allows actual male and females to have genders. What turned me off learning Welsh, almost as much as being brought up by a TV, was when the (may I use the words dick head for a cipher in the English educational system that had nothing more to offer me but an insistence that tables and chairs had sex?) teachers in primary school (pre-teen school) insisted Welsh can be learned by rote.And when you live in an environment where you get the impression that English is slightly more life enhancing than the alternative, you don't even consider learning anything else.Nobody on Wagon Train ever spoke Welsh, even the injuns spoke English. Even Tonto spoke English and he rode all over America with a man who wore a black mask and looked like a raccoon.Imagine how desperate he would have been if he only spoke Injun. I grew up thinking how lucky he was that he could speak English and meet a man who was so rich he gave everybody silver bullets.How could a loser in a primary school trump that?I was a lost boy.And we didn't even like each other. How was she going to teach me a foreign language by making me sit up straight, keep quiet, keep still and behave in a weirdly compulsive way?I was boy. I just wanted to play. I learned English playing. It's amazing what you can learn when you are having fun.What was she going to do?Show me chairs and tables mating?That might have worked. :whistle:

  10. Originally posted by semirami:

    I presume, your forecasts of today were better Da, lad… Mae'r waith a wnaed!!! …work done

    You are a very clever young lady. Cute in both senses of the word.I have been overdosing on coffee lately, maybe that has produced a psychosis?Or maybe I am just getting old.I hope you had a nice weekend.Da boch i.

  11. This was meant as a joke:Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I have been overdosing on coffee lately, maybe that has produced a psychosis?Or maybe I am just getting old.

    But then I went here and got slapped:http://www.coffeeforums.com/forum/caffeine-health/1019-coffee-psychosis.htmlNow what am I going to do?I can't imagine not having tea or coffee.But it would certainly explain the feeling of being bi-polar and the short temper.And the anguish at not being able to control it and guilt at hurting others.But do I really want to be that nice?Can't I just be moderately nasty?I'll go and make myself a coffee while I think about it. :irked:

  12. Originally posted by WL:

    I was boy. I just wanted to play. I learned English playing. It's amazing what you can learn when you are having fun.What was she going to do?

    Hi, friend!Now, I think You're not a child!… but you seem.And, You learned very well. You made a blog, and to visit many people all over the world to … Perhaps, I do know not, You are searching revenge for that boy, who was maltreated by the teacher.You got used to doing everything a game. I think you're a spoiled and pampered. And, sure you'll always be right. No one is better than oneself. I assure you. Tell me another story. This, I know.

  13. Originally posted by WL:

    I have been overdosing on coffee lately, maybe that has produced a psychosis?Or maybe I am just getting old.

    Rwy'n meddwl ei fod yn y coffi, Weatherlawyer. Dim coffi yr wythnos hon I chi, os gwelwch yn dda.I hope you had a nice weekend, too!!! 😀 Hapus nos!!!

  14. Originally posted by semirami:

    Perhaps, I do know not, You are searching revenge for that boy, who was maltreated by the teacher.You got used to doing everything a game. I think you're were spoiled and pampered. And, sure you'll always be right. No one is better than oneself. I assure you. Tell me another story. This, I know.

    I'm 60 years old and only vaguely remember people long dead.All I remember was trying to please them and realising how stupid they were. Even when I was thirty and still struggling to learn maths, I went to evening classes half a lifetime ago. I was as old a the teacher, things were more sensible but it was still the same old formula. I was taught to fear the rain. Penicillin had just been invented and become available. But all the adults at that time had family killed by influenza, pneumonia and consumption. And so we had to wear heavy cardboard thick coats if it was just showery. We were cramped in classrooms instead of being allowed out at break time. I hated school. I wasn't brave enough to be rebellious though. If we went off to play in a field or wherever we might shelter in an hedge and invent another game while a rain shower was falling. But my mother would be going mad calling me in and I'd feel guilty and go. And then get a smack for getting wet. As if god had peed on me. I'm sorry my dear but women can be morons.

  15. See? always, You have reason, friend!That was your reality. Now, are you well? Relax … deep breath, relax, deep breath, relax, deep breath, relax. Now rests. Do not sleep so late. You are nice :up: and grumpy :down: … :whistle: bipolar???Ciao

  16. Finally catching up on some of the posts of the last couple weeks and I think my head just exploded…thank god for making it numb first.

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