18th November 2011

Let's see if we can do better than last time. …

On the 18th November 2011 we begin a new weather spell with the time of the phase at 15:09 Greenwich Mean Time. It ends on the 25th. http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html

The Lunar apse is: Perigee on 23rd November at 23:25 (for whatever the timing is worth.)

Of the following quakes, none of largest fall on the same day as perigee or apse. I don't know if there is anything in the timing. (The timing of the phase is crucial for the spell as an whole.) I have always felt that the next in importance to the time of the phase is the angle the moon makes to the earth's equator. The key, as far as weather in Britain is when it makes and angle of 60 degrees.

(It is important for astronomers to note I am using a navigation table not an astronomical one.)

North Wales and the English city in which I live now are some 52 to 53 degrees North. So when the moon approaches the equator, it hits 60 degrees at 8 or 7 degrees south.

According the Richard Nolle the declination of the moon is:
20th November at 04:46 on the equator. On the 26th November at 06:39 it is at it's maximum South: 22:33 degrees.

The moon seems to hang at its maximum declinations, north or south. But scoots across the equator at some 5 to 7 degrees a day. So it is a pretty poor guess when it will be at 8 or7 south. But now would be favourite or tomorrow on the 18th November 2011.

And even then, I don't know that anything will happen.


42 thoughts on “18th November 2011

  1. Recemt earthquakes from: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/qed/2011/11/10 22:17:34 5.0 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS17:25:40 5.2 GREECE07:51:26 5.0 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS02:34:53 5.3 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA 2011/11/09 22:01:04 5.1 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA21:52:20 5.7 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS19:23:33 5.6 EASTERN TURKEY18:22:59 4.9 NORTHERN PERU 2011/11/08Apogee at 13:2122:45:02 5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN22:05:50 5.2 EASTERN TURKEY17:18:11 5.3 OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O HIGGINS, CHILE08:34:59 5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN03:13:53 5.2 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION02:59:07 6.9 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN02:41:52 5.1 SAVU SEA 2011/11/07 22:35:26 6.0 NICARAGUA16:51:24 5.8 BALLENY ISLANDS REGION11:59:31 5.6 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN09:43:16 5.0 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES04:44:37 5.2 BISMARCK SEA04:01:39 5.1 BISMARCK SEA01:46:36 5.1 KURIL ISLANDS01:43:38 5.0 BISMARCK SEA 2011/11/06 20:56:50 5.0 CRETE, GREECE10:41:05 5.2 ALASKA PENINSULA08:08:14 5.7 ALASKA PENINSULA07:34:15 5.1 TONGA REGION04:41:57 5.2 JAVA, INDONESIA03:53:10 5.6 OKLAHOMA00:46:28 5.0 EAST TIMOR REGION 2011/11/05 16:49:37 5.1 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION07:13:58 5.7 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE01:49:18 5.9 VANUATU 2011/11/04 21:31:33 5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA15:43:44 5.8 VANUATU14:59:52 5.0 BALI REGION, INDONESIA02:59:13 5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2011/11/03 15:47:33 5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA11:40:11 5.1 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 2011/11/02 19:01:33 5.4 COSTA RICA14:59:27 6.1 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE06:33:29 5.0 SULAWESI, INDONESIA 2011/11/01 23:21:19 5.2 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA22:29:38 5.0 REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION17:58:33 5.0 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE17:18:05 5.0 GANSU, CHINA16:21:25 5.0 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN12:32:00 6.3 REVILLA GIGEDO ISLANDS REGION01:03:54 5.3 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA00:21:28 5.6 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA 2011/10/31 21:58:19 5.0 SICHUAN-GANSU BORDER REGION, CHINA07:16:21 5.8 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA04:45:43 5.5 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE01:22:05 5.0 GULF OF ADEN2011/10/30 18:53:43 5.7 OFFSHORE ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE11:52:27 5.6 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA05:24:07 5.2 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN03:23:46 5.7 TAIWAN REGION02:10:39 5.3 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G. 2011/10/29 22:24:21 5.0 EASTERN TURKEY00:57:20 5.0 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS 2011/10/28 23:50:56 5.4 SERAM, INDONESIA23:46:05 5.6 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU22:00:04 5.0 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU18:54:34 6.9 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU11:06:56 5.7 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION08:14:30 5.0 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA05:57:14 5.2 SOLOMON ISLANDS01:35:28 5.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 2011/10/27 18:06:25 5.0 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN08:04:23 5.2 TURKEY-IRAQ BORDER REGION00:15:24 6.0 FIJI REGION 2011/10/26 Perigee at 12:2720:31:44 5.2 OWEN FRACTURE ZONE REGION03:38:51 5.3 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA 2011/10/25 19:34:20 5.2 VANUATU19:34:12 5.3 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION17:08:52 5.2 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN14:55:08 5.6 EASTERN TURKEY06:07:30 5.3 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION03:24:49 5.7 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA02:32:21 5.0 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION02:23:27 4.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 2011/10/24 17:34:58 5.0 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION15:28:06 5.0 EASTERN TURKEY 2011/10/23 20:45:37 5.9 EASTERN TURKEY18:10:46 5.0 EASTERN TURKEY11:32:39 5.7 EASTERN TURKEY11:00:28 5.2 EASTERN TURKEY10:56:48 5.6 EASTERN TURKEY10:48:17 5.6 EASTERN TURKEY10:41:21 7.1 EASTERN TURKEY03:26:28 5.3 PALAU REGION2011/10/22 13:19:42 5.0 OFF EAST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.10:07:43 5.0 TARAPACA, CHILE09:38:46 5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION00:18:01 5.1 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA 2011/10/21 17:57:16 7.4 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION08:02:37 6.1 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION02:55:59 5.0 BANDA SEA23:26:43 5.1 JUJUY, ARGENTINA 2011/10/20 17:18:35 5.0 GUJARAT, INDIA16:07:23 5.2 WEST OF MACQUARIE ISLAND03:39:00 5.5 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION2011/10/19 20:45:11 5.0 OFF THE COAST OF AISEN, CHILE19:03:18 5.0 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO13:26:03 5.1 EASTER ISLAND REGION10:40:39 5.4 SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE04:54:28 5.0 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA02:52:43 5.2 SOUTHERN IRANEdit:I shouldn't have put all those quakes in here. This is a thread about the present spell not a back cast. It will only be a distraction if I leave them.And if I put their associated North Atlantic charts in with them it will take up half a server at Opera.OTOH, it could be an interesting thread.Just not this one.I can live with that.

  2. Ah well, lest we forget; here is yesterdays full colour: There isn't much going to happen on there anyway, until Sunday.

  3. First in at just gone 5 am, I have the Canadian N Hemisphere. There are two complex Lows at 984 millibars so far.And accompanying them, actually dividing them is a complex High at 958 millibars.So we have two bands of fairly compressed isobars.I can't understand the isobar spacings on this map. Are they going in 4 millibar intervals, or not? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/947_100.gifWhatever, from the picture, the quakes that I can do, are going to be at some 90 degrees to these map co-ordinates:55 degrees North; 160 degrees West to 150 degrees East.60 degrees North; 140 degrees West. (The largest.)And:60 to 75 degrees North; 100 degrees West.It would be much easier to work directly from the pressure centres the map gives me, which is what I will do.(80 degrees from those centres provides us with a lot of circles though.)Wouldn't it be nice if some coders could work out where 80 degrees from a map reference is and allow us to just click on a map and have a nice simple ring put on the monitor for us?In this day and age that shuld be possible shouldn't it?It would make a lot more sense than having to use something from the 17th century:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cartesian_circlehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_coordinate_system(Sorry about that, I wouldn't be British if I didn't have a moan.)

  4. Oh dear, things are hotting up in New Zealand / Kermadec / Tonga region: 5.0 M. eastern Turkey5.1 M. New Britain region, Papua New Guinea6.0 M. off east coast of the North Island, N.Z.5.3 M. northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge5.7 M. off east coast of the North Island, N.Z.5.2 M. off east coast of the North Island, N.Z.

  5. Wasn't worth waiting for was it?I wonder if I aught to sign up to their web site?What colour are the mice?Lilac?Magenta?Purple?Lots of them anyway.And I left it too late to work on my globe.Too bad. I off out.Ta ta.

  6. Looks like it is going to get really interesting in 36 hours: 2 6+Ms tonight and at least one a day till then. IF it holds out (which with substantial tremors, is not likely) then we might get an M 7.1+ on Monday afternoon.

  7. I wouldn't mind but this is just clearing up some unfinished business. I got up this morning bright and early to do some shopping before going a meeting, still in the fame of mind I was in yesterday.Which I though was Friday. So I am one meeting up and one behind, yes folks I missed Thursday. And we had this fairly large earthquake as expected.But it's OK, only I met this lad on the street and said I'd see him in the pub on Thursday.And I don't drink these days, much.Not just because it costs so silly much, either. I get headaches if I drink.What a life!I wake up stone cold sober and don't know what day it is?I might as well have gone out.On the plus side it didn't cost me anything.On the negative side I don't remember what happened.Sounds like old times.*******Anyway what usually happens when a spell knocks into the next one with very little change of menu, is a smattering of wind or rain or both.It's just what's in the air at the time, when a spell peters out. When god decided we'd all be better off with two layers of water instead of one, he must have had this sort of thing in mind.You come to an evening, then a morning and the temperatures change; the water in the air condenses and falls on you head. Every night, one after the other, exactly the same as before.Not.What he used as a mechanism to get it up there wasn't heat. Water boils at 100 degrees Centigrade. Something else is going on. But not quite just at the end of a spell, that's all.The gas pressure laws take over. Just for a while, on the margins.Then the next spell kicks in.Only when god put a layer in between the waters he didn't leave out of the equation there might also be another depth to it. Somehow, in ways that are too wonderful for me to explain.And anyway, I'd only be guessing. (Well it's blinking obvious really. It's called gravity. It just so happens that it (gravity) doesn't cause enough heat to melt rock… but you are not ready to hear that yet.)What happens is that some of the water in a spell is underground and forms a solute with quartz and stops all that (underground stuff) betwixt and between (spells.)Or not, as the case may be.So we have earthquakes.Well, we did to day anyway. Only I thought it was Saturday. Do you see what I mean? This isn't the one.Only it is.That's the problem with computer models, they don't allow for earthquakes.Sometimes, when god is talking to me I wish he would go a little slower and elucidate a little more clearly.On the plus side, I'm OK to go to the Freebird tomorrow.Or maybe that's the devil talking.*******OK, I put my name down for this show a few weeks ago, then went on a downer, now it turns out it's tomorrow. And if I'd gone in at the usual time I'd have missed it. And now I get the rest of the day to pick some of my poetry (or something) and rehearse it.That's if I am still in.Or I could dodge off and do this earthquake stuff.Decisions, decisions.Oof!I'm still up enough to cruise it. And I can work the epicentres backwards, back-casting is so much easier than forecasting. If only I could come up with something good to do in the show.Ha. I'll do that Calon Lan one, maybe Myfanw.That's it, sorted.If they'll have me after I missed all those meetings.Ooh, feq!

  8. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I shouldn't have put all those quakes in here. This is a thread about the present spell not a back cast. It will only be a distraction if I leave them. And if I put their associated North Atlantic charts in with them it will take up half a server at Opera. OTOH, it could be an interesting thread. Just not this one. I can live with that.

    Hands up everyone who wants to see how they turned out.And don't all speak at once.

  9. So I am not as old as I used to be. Big deal. The spell is juast the same only I get to live it all over again. I always wanted to time-travel. This way I can do it without such a long extension lead. And this is tomorrow in about 3 hours time again: A nice big Low, see.And it gets better: And better: In fact it doesn't go away: It just unravels a bit: It's still there, pumping out all those nasty vibes for Greenies to pick up on: Woooohahhwoe ooooh. We're all going to die. Whoooooooooeeeehoooohahhh.Just like last time.

  10. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Woooohahhwoe ooooh. We're all going to die. Whoooooooooeeeehoooohahhh.

    How many aitches are there in Woooohahhwoe?

  11. 5.5 M. Kuril Islands5.1 M. near the east coast of Honshu, Japan5.1 M. central East Pacific Rise5.1 M. Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska5.0 M. fiji region5.0 M. Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia5.1 M. south of the Kermadec Islands

  12. Here we go: Look at that Low hooked onto Greenland.All the flaccid dissipated fronts have concentrated their lack of pressure from yesterday: So what happens to the planet when that happens?If an earthquake occurs when a deep low hits land, what happens when a disorganised system gets organised?Not all the scientists in all the seimicity centres and all the meteorological centres and all the gosd knows what else centres can tell me that.Not one of them has even thought about it.Want to know why?Because I am the first one who ever did.I did it for the first time just now.Nobody under the su has ever had that thought before.But I can't prove it. So the saying: "There is nothing new under the sun" still stands.*******Now to get down to business, there is nothing resembling boat anchors on this map and the lilac mice are running up the Davis Straight.What part of Japan are they going to?http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/mapping/Change "earthquake age" from 0:7 to 0:1 and "earthquake magnitudes" to 5 from 2.5; giving you 5:10.They are running from North to South down the Asian Pacific coast.Now a pair of twins has hit Indonesia and Papua new Guinea.Will they go back up?Go on down towards New Zealand?Cross the Pacific?We will know by this time tomorrow. Meanwhile T+60 looks interesting.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.htmlNo picture, I am almost out of bandwidth until Tuesday.

  13. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    5.5 M. Kuril Islands5.1 M. near the east coast of Honshu, Japan5.1 M. central East Pacific Rise5.1 M. Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska5.0 M. fiji region5.0 M. Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia5.1 M. south of the Kermadec Islands

    As wth most miracles; timing is of the essence:18:00:13 5.0 M. -3.023 142.291 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.16:31:42 5.7 M. -2.964 142.122 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.15:04:32 4.6 M. -6.500 128.130 BANDA SEA14:09:33 5.3 M. -23.004 -175.426 TONGA REGION10:23:45 4.8 M. 59.245 -30.456 REYKJANES RIDGE09:48:37 3.1 M. 60.884 -152.920 SOUTHERN ALASKA09:28:38 4.8 M. 59.293 -30.546 REYKJANES RIDGE09:19:22 4.9 M. 59.418 -30.201 REYKJANES RIDGEToday's run is almost identical to the above from yesterday (19th November 2011.) It's 20 minutes to 8 on a warm November night and I am out of bandwidth. I will have to get cable. I have been putting off moving for god knows why for god knows how long and I need to pull my finger out.Have fun.Stay safe.

  14. Let me run that past you again.the weather yesterday is much the same as today just slowly clearing.A line of occluded front went up over the ocean into the Arctic anddown the left hand side of the mid Arctic Ridge into the Pacific for all I know.It just went off the map above between Greenland and Canada as far as the MetO map showed.However the major quakes from yesterday were in line with the ones for today so far.(Most of them.)I have reset the 19th's to allow you a better omparison. I usualy ditch the times as I wanted to show magnitudes more clearly.But these have followed timings like a slow match fuse. Here they are shorn of the timing and co-dinates but in the same chronological order as yesterday's events:29th November:5.0 M. NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.5.7 M. NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.4.6 M. BANDA SEA5.3 M. TONGA REGIOn4.8 M. REYKJANES RIDGE3.1 M. SOUTHERN ALASKA4.8 M. REYKJANES RIDGE4.9 M. REYKJANES RIDGE19th November 20015.1 M. south of the Kermadec Islands5.0 M. Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia5.0 M. Fiji region5.1 M. Andreanof Islands, Aleutian Is., Alaska5.1 M. central East Pacific Rise5.1 M. near the east coast of Honshu, Japan5.5 M. Kuril IslandsIf you keep asking you will recieve, if you keep looking you will find it, if you keep knocking the doors will be opened for you.Want to know what it feels like to talk to god?Bloody hard work.No sweat!

  15. Earthquake series tracks.They seem to follow the Lows and keep to the left of Anticyclones looking down from above them.IOW they are following the sun; they are chiral.The Reykjanes tremors were at 60 N; 30 W. just SW of Reykjavik: Now look at the Low pressure at the top of the Pacific on this Canadian chart: After that they went down the Asian Pacific side of that giant Anticyclone.Hows about them apples?

  16. I had a brain fart earlier and messed up the quake list.This is a correction:20/11/2011 with 10 missing. 5.0 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G. 5.7 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.* * 4.6 BANDA SEA* 5.3 TONGA REGION* * * 4.8 REYKJANES RIDGE* 4.8 REYKJANES RIDGE* * 4.9 REYKJANES RIDGE 4.3 SOUTH OF ALASKA 4.2 ALASKA PENINSULA* 4.7 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA 4.2 FIJI REGION 4.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.2 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.4 SOUTHERN IRAN 19/11/2011 with 13 removed 5.5 KURIL ISLANDS 4.7 NORTH OF SVALBARD* 5.1 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.1 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE 5.1 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 3.3 ALASKA PENINSULA 4.8 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN* 4.6 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN* * 4.7 LACCADIVE SEA 4.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN* 4.3 TAIWAN* 5.0 FIJI REGION* * * * * * 5.0 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA* 5.1 SOUTH OF THE KERMADEC ISLANDS Some were large ones on the other side of the Pacific, some were just too small for consideration.Some from the other northern continents were possible data for further research.How is Persia and Turkey linked?Who can say?Well obviously god can but maybe me too one day?I'll have to ask him nicely.

  17. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    We will know by this time tomorrow. Meanwhile T+60 looks interesting.http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.htmlNo picture, I am almost out of bandwidth until Tuesday.

    553 MB to last me till Tuesday. I had 666MB when I looked first thing this morning.100MB just loading charts.Here is the one I begged off from: So much for my distro update.All because I couldn't wait till tomorrow and go to the library and upload maps to that long list of quakes above.As if they were going anywhere. I got two day's worth and that would have been enough until then.First thing tomorrow I am going to find a new house with cable for an option.And now I am off to fetch a set to put Mandiva on.

  18. Current centre for excellence:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.html *****For what its worth. Five star rating. I wonder what else they have.21/11/11 Top 5 5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5.9 MYANMAR 5.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS All 4.9 WESTERN HONSHU, JAPAN 4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 3.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 3.4 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 3.1 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO 2.7 ALASKA PENINSULA 2.8 OKLAHOMA 3.1 ALASKA PENINSULA 2.6 ALASKA PENINSULA 2.9 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 4.6 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICO 5.2 NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.7 NEVADA 5.9 MYANMAR 4.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES 4.7 EASTERN IRAN 5.0 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 3.2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIADon't look now but I have just explained The Pacific Ring Of Fire and it's only 11:15.What shall I do with the rest of the day?Decisions decisions…

  19. I was recently considering migrating to the ends of the earth to get hold of the data at the MetOffice library in Exitdoor.I am seriously hampered by the stuff they allow peons like me access to online.But now it appears that even if I moved to the USA and had liberal access to all their goodies, it wouldn't be enough.I know how Newton felt when he was stymied by the anal retentives at Greenwich.Here is a brilliant site that does go some way with limited computer modelling to ease my pain: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/efs.htmlIn the meantime I have: Mobile data MB 496 -to last me until sometime tomorrow.I want to download a huge list of graphics and need to update my operating system.So I am going to settle for a local move and get cable.And even then it will be one page at a time: save picture as > write new blog > select file > upload picture > select link and copy > paste to thread comment > post.It will soon be 2012. 1/8th of the way through the century.It shouldn't have to be like this.***A tropical depression of 30 knots has developed into a tropical storm of 50 in the American side of the pacific. It is slated to go to Category 1, a full blown hurricane.http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/This thing is covered in mice: Which are the same colour as some of this: Which leads us to this: And crucially, allowing us to set a time stamp on seismic developments, this: Which is unfortunately all I have to work with.Abyssal fathoms more than poor old Admiral Fitzroy had to do his head in with. Am I complaining?ME?

  20. Some intense pressure will be building up tonight, including a cyclonic system at the mouth of the Mediterranean.This will disperse by Thursday with more news from El Hierro and at least one fairly large tremor in the lonely reaches of the Pacific.But where?Stop and listen to the solar system as sunlight breezes in.It looks good on the net, charts from the Met but so bewilderingNothing stays the same as I willingly play the gameAnd it's coming around again.So the weather falls apart.Occlusion forecasting the start foretell earth shake.Feel the earthquakeI'm explaining whyThen post the messageStep off the ledgeAll I can do is tryNothing stays the same.Am I feqk, playing a game!And it's coming around again.You can watch it all fall apart.I can only forecast the startMeander god of love there's nothing else we can doIf you don't believe its true.Nothing stays the same.You are all going to know my name.It's coming around again and there's nothing else we can do if you won't believe its true.

  21. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    So what happens to the planet when that happens? If an earthquake occurs when a deep low hits land, what happens when a disorganised system gets organised? Not all the scientists in all the seimicity centres and all the meteorological centres and all the god knows what else centres, can tell me that. Not one of them has even thought about it.Want to know why? Because I am the first one who ever did.I did it for the first time just now.Nobody under the sun has ever had that thought before.

    Well maybe.It appears that when things get co-ordinated on this side of the globe things do much the same on the other side. I'm pretty sure that cyclogenesis in the South pacific is the cause for the consolidation of the loosely organised system that existed in the North Atlantic before the weekend.Let me rephrase that. They both got organised together for the same reason. Had it been a larger storm the earthquakes might have been of greater magnitude.

  22. Current Data 24-hr Ahead Projection22 Nov, 2011 1:48 GMT 23 Nov, 2011 1:48 GMTSystem Basin Lat Long Wind Cat Lat Long Wind CatKENNETH NE Pacific 13.0 N 110.6 W 75 kts 1 13.2 N 114.2 W 95 kts 2 http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/The above is a table I clipped from the Tropical Storm Reports pageHere is is cleared up:NE PacificKENNETH Current Data:22 Nov, 2011 1:48 GMT13.0 N 110.6 W75 knotsCategory F124-hr Ahead Projection:23 Nov, 2011 1:48 GMT13.2 N 114.2 W95 knotsCategory F2And here is what I posted to the Usenet group uk.sci.weather:On Nov 22, 2:22 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:> On Nov 20, 2:08 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:> > On Nov 20, 1:45 pm, Phil Layton <t3…@hotmail.com> wrote:> > > > Persistent Fog at Heathrow – seems to be just the local area now. May> > > not clear all day. Long delays and cancellations to flights.> > > Why is that surprising when for millennia the area was so conducive to> > flying they still have to slaughter the wildlife indiscriminately> > there?> > Why the hell didn't I catch this before TSR beat me to it?> > This is the time of the phase for this spell:> 18th Nov 15:09> It a spell for thunder.> And its foggy.> > Foggy spells are 6 and 12 o'clock times of phases.> The spell is 3 hours out and this indicates a likelihood of severe> tropical storms. I can't remember if it comes to a Cat 3 but it can> only go as high as a Cat 5, according to satellite telemetry.> > Which means that the code is chiral too. So it IS going to be a Cat 3.> > Or not.> Come on Kenneth, don't let me down.http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/> > Cyclosis shows up as a massive system in the North Atlantic just this> side of the Mid Atlantic Ridge -that Blocking Low effect I was going> on about a few days ago.> > When Ken starts to fall apart, the Low will split up rather than go> ashore as most Lows do at Norway or Scotland.> > It's nice when I forget things, it keeps it fresh.> And interesting.When I woke up this morning all my doubts were goneIt's going to be a Cat 3 all the whole day long.When I get back to bed, what will have taken its place?A very large LowAll down the Mid Atlantic ridge.http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/8bc2df7909aa7dc1#****UsenetUsenet is a collection of interlinked servers usually maintained by teaching agencies such as colleges but other interested parties are also involved.The idea is to perform the same service as an online college notice board. It was intended to link professors and students at universities with one another in order to ask for advice.This was a brilliant idea opening all scientific research to the general public to garner world wide interest and input.Since those days it has got wildly out of hand, so much so that a lot of the original boards have formed their own forum system with more control.Initially it was people lie me who started toe rot. Not knowing any better we misbehaved. Today things can ge a lot worse. There is no equipment for handling spam, porn links and all too frequent Chinese manufacturer's adverts.In those early days one could read the output by subscribing to a newsfeed that would download the text to your computer and help save your time and bandwidth allowance.These days with modern modems and most people on fast broad band there isn't that much call for Newsreaders to do that for you.I have always preferred to use online readers such as Google Groups as their is far less censorship with them. And they tend to store all the posts and replies for a lot longer than News feeds did or do.But people get used to other people and tend to ignore poster, like me, who frequently stray off topic, have ideas that are unacceptable and can be abusive.*******This is what I posted above explained:> > On Nov 20, 1:45 pm, Phil Layton <t3…@hotmail.com>went first reporting on the weather at the most important meteorological station in Europe:> > > > Persistent Fog at HeathrowThe number of chevrons in front of the text indicates who said what.Fathead here went next with a clever remark about the need to cull geese and other threatened species of wildlife:> > > Why is that surprising?Fogs being a common phenomenon on low lying, flat land ideal for marshes and airports.Then I realised that Hurricane Kenneth was serious and remembered the earliest stuff I used to post about the moon and hurricanes: > Why the hell didn't I catch this before TSR beat me to it?And attempted to explain my reasoning:> Foggy spells are 6 and 12 o'clock times of phases.And somewhere in the apparent gibberish, posted a forecast:> Which means that the code is chiral too. So it IS going to be a Cat 3.http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/Note the name in the link. It's risk not reportsWhich shows you what my attention span is worth.But it all ends happily ever after as the poem gloats:"When I woke up this morning all my doubts were goneIt's going to be a Cat 3 all the whole day long."Yes folks, I got it right again.So far.

  23. Did I forget to mention this spell should have been thundery?It's foggy. That's a rotation of 3 hours whichever direction it goes.A long time ago I worked out that a step back like that would produce an effect of something like 3 categories in the storm that is going to induced by it.Since this is all theoretical work, it is difficult to talk about the mechanism without misleading others.I know that saying one or the other occurrence is the cause or effect is erroneous if you don't actually know the cause.I presume that I know the cause but the fact remains that one occurs with the other, some of the time.There are conditions that could cause different effects. This is not one of them.Another little factoid is that I have forgotten some of this stuff. To be on the ball you have to stay on the ball. If I dropped the ball -which I did for a while, then this stuff only comes back gradually.But you can relax.It will come back. Old Weatherlawyer has just forgotten more than you know.I haven't forgotten more than I know.But I Have Forgotten what I was going to say next.Oh yes, the category might just be an F2. TSR had it slated for a Cat 1. It should be that by now but it is going to get serious.

  24. Moving on; we have a picture from TSR: That was when it was foggy here, a spell right next to a foggy one is an anticyclonic. This evening in England, my part of it, the sky cleared and stars came out.Rotating spells.I don't know how it works or why, just that it does.According to Weatherlawyer a foggy spell is worth 6.An anticyclone is worth 5.Next down is a 4.Then we have a thundery one = 3.3 from 6 is 3 which is why we had a Cat 3.3 from 5 is 2 which is a Cat 2 .So we should either Have a Cat 2 or we are going to Get one.Good grief!A Cat 4.Why did that happen?Maybe I'm wrong.Would it work the other way?3, 2, 1. 6.That would work.3, 2, 1, 6, 5.That works perfectly.Or I am kidding myself.Where do we go from here?(I actually know the answer but I am giving you a chance to work it out.)

  25. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Some intense pressure will be building up tonight, including a cyclonic system at the mouth of the Mediterranean. This will disperse by Thursday with more news from El Hierro and at least one fairly large tremor in the lonely reaches of the Pacific. But where? Stop and listen to the solar system as sunlight breezes in. It looks good on the net, charts from the Met but so bewildering Nothing stays the same as I willingly play the game And it's coming around again.

    I saw that the Australian chart from FNMOC was showing blue to the south.Coupling that with the tracks of the earthquakes for the two days previously, I inferred that the next were to go towards New Zealand. Wrong of course but in the right ball park in terms of hemispheres rather than oceans.An interesting fail.So now we go from blind guessing to studies of the weather in the southern hemisphere.Or not, whatever the case could be.

  26. This thread jut got boring.What on earth could possibly be more interesting than earthquakes?Good grief! How many threads are there on blogs anywhere that explain the pacific ring of fire for the first time ever, correctly?What could possibly top that?As if that wasn't an ace supreme, how about it being the first thread in human history that not only described transverse planetary waves but explained how earthquakes relate to the weather and approached a scientifically provable method for forecasting earthquakes?And now I'm fed up with it.What kind of a fool would go off on that?

  27. Midnight 21/22 November 2011: Noon 22nd: For some reason, best know to me yesterday, I don't have the forecast for the 23rd.Midnight 22/23: The chart for the forecast of T24 from the 22nd was substantially the same as the previous 24 hours.But the forecast for the storm Kenneth wasn't what it should have been if that scene had played out.

  28. Now we have to ask the question:Is the way that cyclones and anticyclones interact related to the transverse wave along which earthquakes run?And I don't know how to answer it.Which means I already know the answer and that I am lost looking the other way.Which means it will be a long time coming and bloody obvious when it gets here.1. When a cyclone lies close to an anticyclone they do not join up.2. When a cyclone lies close to an anticyclone they produce winds that flow in opposite directions in the same direction.3. When a cyclone lies close to an anticyclone, the greater their pressure disparity, the tighter their isobars press. And the greater the resulting related earthquake magnitudes.4. There is a modicum of chirality with the transverse wave. Some go around the outside of the anticyclone down the Asian side of the Pacific.5. Very few earthquakes occur in the centre of the Pacific. Most deep cyclones and anticyclones occur in the middle of the Pacific.Sleep on that.

  29. This hould have been happening all week. Japan is in the middle of all the action. I have the idea that it gets hit going down and coming back the other way, also it is the next harmonic distance south of the Anticyclone belt. What happened?Kenneth went Ape Czjd; the damn bitch.You can call them what the hell you like but they are all bitches.This is the chart, The chart: Look at the odd lows marked out as highs.FNMOC Atlantic: Pacific: Some souther hemisphere stuff. Indian Ocean: Australian: Blue, the darkest colour on the board. What magnitude do those represent?Damned if I know, damned if I care.The only trouble is that I can't leave this stuff alone. It's going to crawl into my head while I am sleeping and tell me things.I'd rather be normal sometimes.Did I already post this one? Low High, right?But the anticyclone was a high Low.So what does that mean?My brane hurts.

  30. Originally posted by Smithsonian:

    During 16-22 November the submarine eruption continued South of El Hierro Island. During this period, the amplitude of the tremor showed two rapid changes, a decrease in amplitude at 2200 on 17 November and an increase at 1710 on 19 November. Seismic amplitudes decreased between late 20 November and mid-day on 21 November, and then remained stable at values similar to those noted during 19-25 October.

    I remember saying something about Hierro increasing in activity after the 19th. I'm going to blame Kenneth, the damned Barbie toy boy.Does anybody mind?

  31. Originally posted by Smithsonian:

    KILAUEA Hawaii (USA) 19.421°N, 155.287°W; summit elev. 1222 mDuring 16-22 November, HVO reported that the lava lake circulated and periodically rose and fell in the deep pit within Kilauea's Halema'uma'u Crater, remaining below the inner ledge (75 m below the crater floor).Almost daily measurements indicated that the gas plume from the vent continued to deposit variable amounts of ash and fresh spatter nearby. Incandescence was visible from the E and W edges of the Pu'u 'O'o crater floor, and from the 21 September fissure on the SE flank of Pu'u 'O'o cone.Pahoehoe flows, fed through lava tubes from the fissure, continued to be active about 5 km SE of Pu'u 'O'o based on intermittent views from satellite.Incandescence from a skylight on the lava tube was also observed. During 18-19 November the vent on the E edge of the crater produced lava flows that partially filled the depression left by the flank fissure eruption in September.There were also two brief and small lava-flow effusions from the W edge vent. Intermittent lava flows continued from the E vent during 20-22 November.


  32. Until I can find a better map of the Arctic I believe this Canadian Northern Hemisphere chart is key to these quakes. How the occlusions run through that ocean tells us which side -or sides, are going to get the largest quakes in the Ring of Fire.Pity I can't stand the presentation. It seems too skewed for me.What do I mean SEEMS?It is too skewed for me.

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