The problem with insurance

Insurance companies are the good guys, right? …

Believe it or not you have to pay to read czjd lie this:

Originally posted by Saunders and Lea:

Atlantic hurricane activity has increased significantly since 1995 but the underlying causes of this increase remain uncertain. It is widely thought that rising Atlantic sea surface temperatures have had a role in this but the magnitude of this contribution is not known.

We quantify this contribution for storms that formed in the tropical North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico; these regions together account for most of the hurricanes that make landfall in the United States.

We show that a statistical model based on two environmental variables, -local sea surface temperature and an atmospheric wind field—can replicate a large proportion of the variance in tropical Atlantic hurricane frequency and activity between 1965 and 2005.

We then remove the influence of the atmospheric wind field to assess the contribution of sea surface temperature. Our results indicate that the sensitivity of tropical Atlantic hurricane activity to August–September sea surface temperature over the period we consider is such that a 0.5 °C increase in sea surface temperature is associated with a ~40% increase in hurricane frequency and activity.

The results also indicate that local sea surface warming was responsible for ~40% of the increase in hurricane activity relative to the 1950–2000 average between 1996 and 2005.

Our analysis does not identify whether warming induced by greenhouse gases contributed to the increase in hurricane activity, but the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricanes and sea surface temperature will serve as a useful means of assessing whether they are likely to provide reliable projections of future changes in Atlantic hurricane activity.

http://www.nature.com/doifinder/10.1038/nature06422

So why would you want to read the main article even if you could get it for free?

All it says is that they can make computer models fit the facts.
I'd skim through it if I had the opportunity to see if it mentioned anything more than statistics.

(You can't use statistics in real weather. Meteorologists use it because they know no better and it is the staff of death for climatologists but is is basically crap.)

In all fairness to the authors, I believe they really want to help. In all fairness to Lloyds, you could say the same about them when they helped finance the slave trade.

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