The cyclical nature of vortices

What goes around comes around

Longest gap between storms = 18 years: 1973-1992

How often does Eleuthera get affected?
Brushed or hit every 2.14years

[This is all very misleading. The eccentricity of the moon being whatit is allows me to claim the hurricanes in peak season strike this region in four year cycles or multiples of 4 years. It's far from exact but at least it isn't playing with statistics.]

Average years between direct hurricane hits.(hurricane force winds for at least a few hours)
(32h)once every 4.34 years

[This is more like it!]

Average MPH of hurricane hits. (Based on advisories; sustained winds, not gusts)
115mph

Statistically when this area should be affected next
hit in 2011

Last affected by
2011 Aug 25th Hurricane Irene hits with 115mph winds while moving N.W. right over the island causing heavy damage.

Past hurricanes:

1871 Aug 24th a 105mph cane hits while moving WNW

1879 Aug 16th 90mph from the SSE

1883 Sept 8th 105mph just west from the South

1888 Aug 15th 90mph from the ESE

1891 Aug 23rd, 95mph from the ESE

1893 Aug 19th 120mph from the S.E passes just east

1893 Aug 26th 120mph from the ESE

1896 Sept 5th 115mph from the south

1903 Sept 10th 80mph from the ESE

1906 Sept 6th, 125mph just north

1908 Sept 13th, 120mph from the SSE

1908 Oct 1st, 110mph winds just north while moving ENE

1926 July 26th 130mph from the S.E

1926 Sept 17th 145mph just south from the ESE

1928 Sept 16th, many buildings destroyed by WNW moving cat 4 with 155mph winds. Heavy damage on island but no loss of life.

1929 Sept 25th 115mph winds from the NE. 75 to 100 knot winds upon passage.

1932 Sept 5th 155mph Hurricane hits from the east.

1933 July 29th, 90mph from the S.E

1933 sept 3rd a major hurricane hits with a pressure of 27.98 140mph heavy damage,eye passes over Harbour island at 6AM. No deaths reported but there was major damage to property.

1933 Oct 5th, 150mph just north while moving N.E

1941 Oct 5th, 105mph from the ESE

1945 Oct 13th, 75mph from the S.W

1949 Aug 26th, 115mph from the ESE

1952 Oct 26th, 115mph Hurricane Fox from the west moving east

1956 Aug 14th, 110mph the first of 2 Betsy's to affect this area just east.

1965 Hurricane Betsy moving SW hits northern portion of Island with 120mph winds causing heavy damage on Sept 7th.

1992 hurricane Andrew Aug 23rd hits the northern tip with 170 mph winds reports of a 23 ft storm surge kills 4 people in the town of Spanish Wells, Bluff & Bogue were devastated from Andrew.All homes & buildings suffered considerable damage especially in cat cay where complete settlements were devastated..

1995 Aug 1st,hurricane Erin hits with 75mph winds press 29.12 minor damage.

1996 July 10th, 105mph Hurricane Bertha just N.E. of here moving N.W.

1999 Sept 14th 8am Hurricane Floyd hits with 155mph winds snapping palm trees & ripping off many roofs. A 20 ft storm surge inundated the island. Approx 25% of homes suffered some damage.

Nov 5th 2001 Hurricane Michelle hits with 80mph winds while moving quickly N.E. from the S.W. ,pressure 28.87

2004, Sept 3rd. Hurricane Frances hits with 115mph winds. Understand Cookie‘s garage has sustained significant roof damage. Eye lasted 90 min in Governors Harbour. Governors reported worse winds after eye. Some roofs on Harbour are damaged, many trees down so far. Some roofs are gone and trees down but he was fine and so were his golf carts. The roof was off of the pre school. The maximum sustained wind reported from a land station was 87 kt at North Eleuthera in the north western Bahamas at 1000 UTC 3 September. Ham reports at landfall 03/12Z ELEUTHERA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 100 MPH…161 KM/HR AND NASSAU JUST REPORTED A 75 MPH…120 KM/HR WIND GUST.

2011 Aug 25th. Hurricane Irene hits with 115mph winds while moving N.W. right over the island causing heavy damage reported over several parts of the island.
http://www.eleuthera-map.com/

*******

Some of the lunar phases involved:

1871 Aug 24th. Aug 23 11:35

1883 Sept 8th. Sep 1 14:14

1888 Aug 15th. Aug 14 16:44

1891 Aug 23rd. Aug 19 21:28

1893 Aug 19th. Aug 19 09:52

1893 Aug 26th. Aug 19 09:52. Aug 27 08:43

1896 Sept 5th. Aug 31 10:55

1903 Sept 10th. Sep 7 00:20

1906 Sept 6th. Sep 2 23:36

1908 Sept 13th. Sep 10 12:23

1908 Oct 1st. Sep 25 14:59

1926 July 26th. Jul 25 05:13

1926 Sept 17th. Sep 15 04:26

1928 Sept 16th. Sep 14 01:20 <<<<<<<

1929 Sept 25th. Sep 18 23:16 Sep 26 02:07

1932 Sept 5th. Aug 31 19:54

1933 July 29th. Jul 22 16:03 Jul 30 04:44

1933 Sept 3rd. Aug 28 10:13 Sep 4 05:04

1933 Oct 5th. Oct 3 17:08

1941 Oct 5th. Sep 27 20:09 Oct 5 08:32

1945 Oct 13th. Oct 6 05:22 Oct 14 09:38

1949 Aug 26th. Aug 24 03:59

1952 Oct 26th. Oct 18 22:42 Oct 26 04:04

1956 Aug 14th. Aug 13 08:45

1965 Sept 7th. Sep 2 19:27

1992 Aug 23rd. Aug 21 10:01

1995 Aug 1st. Jul 27 15:13

1996 July 10th. Jul 7 18:55

1999 Sept 14th. Sep 9 22:02

2001 Nov 5th. Nov 1 05:41

2004, Sept 3rd. Aug 30 02:22

2011 Aug 25th. Aug 21 21:55

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phasecat.html

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6 thoughts on “The cyclical nature of vortices

  1. The North Atlantic charts available on the internet go back in 6 hourly stages with many days munged or missing (some months two or three days are missing sometimes the same chart is recorded for two days.)This isn't a big problem when you have four charts covering each day. You can easily get by with a good idea of the situation.What is nice with a 6 hourly interval is that they can be run as cartoons, showing you exact increments of weather updates. And you can really see what is happening to the weather at "points of impact.You can gauge when an event on the other side of the planet has taken place and thrown a spanner in the works, so to speak.WetterZentrale holds Atlantic charts going back to the late 1990's. I'm sure that I have even seen a page on there some time back that takes a re-analysis of the data and projects it back into history, even covering the times when no such charts were issued in WW 2.(In WW 2 obviously, the need for secrecy made such data top secret. But also, the weather models we have now didn't exist, the Swedes hadn't got the Norwegian Models up and running until the 1960's IIRC. It's a long story and interesting too, in its way.)I don't know how to get hold of charts made with data from other countries without paying for them. I don't have any money, I don't know what I want and I don't know what's available.But the reality is that I just don't want to pay for stuff that is already paid for and not supposed to be secret in times of peace.When Oppenheimer, the man in overall charge of the creative process behind the first nuclear research was betrayed by the top scientist who replaced hima after the war, several other scientists in that field refused to acknowledge him.This besides being a personal affront, led to a schism in the science, people unwilling to share research or to work together on projects stymied the growth and the industry.Exactly the same sort of thing happened in England recently with the stupidity of the man in overall charge of running climate unit of Britain's meteororologial service (in what amounts to the largest body of researchers into that relatively little known science in the whole world.)Under Presidunce Stupid of the USA BigOil wanted to flatten the philosophy that was coming out of the gormless so they set up a counterintelligence unit to put out disinformation.Instead of both sides working together to teach the reat of the world wqhat was happening and actually arguing over facts, the opposite sides closed ranks and hid data from eeach other.(As it happens the rate of CO2 in the air is slated to increase over the century to become double what it is now.This is an argument based on statistics and leaves out of all the models for and against, everything that we don't know, can't possibly know and never will know if we don't have access to the data.) *****None of which has anything to do with the OP except that I am unwilling to be coerced into parting with beer tokens for research that has already been paid for, done, used, made public and then filed away.If it is filed away in electronic forms then it should be made available to anyone professional or amateur who wants it.Without being able to cross reference the hurricane data above, by the most unsubtle and tenuous connections it is possible to do so with: The MetOffice's North Atlantic ChartsI am unable to go any further than a very rough guesstimate at what was happening in the last decade.

  2. Time for a bit more religion.I don't particularly agree with everything on this page:http://www.ps-19.org/Crea00Intro-Ps19/Astronomy.htmlBut until I read the rest of it, whilst I was reading this bit, I was thinking "Did I write this?" :-Originally posted by not me (Really!) But sounds like me at first.:

    ASTRONOMY:Signs and Seasons, Days and YearsComments on Genesis 1:14And God said, “Let there be lights in the expanse of the heavens to separate the day from the night. And let them be for signs and for seasons, and for days and years."I think thy thoughts after thee, O God.Johannes Kepler[I had never heard of that quote. I am pretty sure I would have remembered it but I sometimes pick up things and quickly forget them as the net is less easily exhausted than I am.] The Silent Speech in Astronomy as a Prototype for God's Silent SpeechOn Creation Day 4, God commissioned the starry heavens to be time-keepers for his human creation. This is a prime example of Nature's built-in Silent Speech.For stars to be timekeepers, humans must draw that speech out of a random scatter of heavenly light. Order must come out of apparent disorder.Timekeeping doesn't come automatically without effort and skill and so this example is a prototype of how the silent speech of Psalm 19:4 works in practice.The silent speech in astronomy declares God's glory and handiwork in greater and greater detail, as skilled craftsmen interpret the starry hosts as timekeepers.This skilled work goes on for centuries and millennia, and even continues today. Providing greater cause for awe and wonder, as each major advance in astronomy leads to further evidence for God's handiwork at timekeeping.Its unfolding shows an unending increase in marvellous, unexpected depth and complexity.

  3. Genesis 1:14Originally posted by Moses:

    And God said, “Let there be lights in the expanse of the heavens to separate the day from the night. And let them be for signs AND for seasons, and for days and years."

    Analyse this.

  4. Let's have a look at some of these "times as they applied to Eleuthera:"11:35; 14:14 ; 16:44; 21:28; 09:52; 09:52 and 08:43; 10:55; 00:20; 23:36; 12:23; 14:59; 05:13; 04:26; 01:20; 23:16 and 02:07; 19:54; 16:03 and 04:44; 10:13 and 05:04; 17:08; 20:09 and 08:32; 05:22 and 09:38; 03:59; 22:42 and 04:04; 08:45; 19:27; 10:01; 15:13; 18:55; 22:02; 05:41; 02:22; 21:55These are all the times of the phases involved.Some are given as two phases, these are when the hurricane struck on a day the phase of the moon changed.Removing some of the numbers by rounding up or down or to the nearest half hour gives us:11.5; 14; 17; 21.5; 10; 10 and 8; 11; 00.5; 23.5; 12.5; 15; 05; 4.5; 1.5; 23 and 2; 20; 16 and 5; 10 and 5; 17; 20 and 8.5; 5.5 and 9.5; 4; 23 and 4; 9; 19.5; 10; 15; 19; 22.; 5.5; 2.5; 225; 17; 11 and 23 are the same in the lunar code I developed:5.5; 14; 5; 21.5; 10; 10 and 8; 5; 00.5; 5.5; 12.5; 15; 05; 4.5; 1.5; 5 and 2; 20; 16 and 5; 10 and 5; 5; 20 and 8.5; 5.5 and 9.5; 4; 5 and 4; 9; 19.5; 10; 15; 19; 22.; 5.5; 2.5; 22Similarly 10 and 22 are 12 hours apart as are 6 and 12:5.5; 14; 5; 21.5; 10; 10 and 8; 5; 6.5; 5.5; 6.5; 15; 05; 4.5; 1.5; 5 and 2; 20; 16 and 5; 10 and 5; 5; 20 and 8.5; 5.5 and 9.5; 4; 5 and 4; 9; 19.5; 10; 15; 19; 10.; 5.5; 2.5; 10.take 6 hours from all the above, where possible as the code repeats every 6 hours:5.5; 2; 5; 3.5; 4; 4 and 2; 5; 6.5; 5.5; 6.5; 3; 05; 4.5; 1.5; 5 and 2; 2; 4 and 5; 4 and 5; 5; 2 and 2.5; 5.5 and 3.5; 4; 5 and 4; 3; 1.5; 4; 3; 1; 4.; 5.5; 2.5; 4.Which gives you the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6. It is meaningless.So previous mathematicians are quite right to say there is no way that you can do much with the time of the moon.Except the time of the moon applies to the local interpreter. There was no way anyone before the days of modern communication could put the pieces together universally.But there is every reason to suspect that our ancestors built religious and social edifices for agricultural, religious and social reasons all at the same time.Lumped together these occasions were called festivals.They still are.How can the time of the phases be made to show anything sensible from all this mumbo-jumbo?

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