I suppose I should send this off to the Florida university where it came from.
But I post to Usenet, if they haven't got someone on their staff reading my stuff, they are not going to have any sympathy with my findings, however clever they are. …
Originally posted by SAN FRANCISCO, USA:
– US researchers said Thursday they have found evidence that tropical cyclones in Haiti and Taiwan were followed by earthquakes, suggesting that heavy rains and landslides may unleash temblors.
"Very wet rain events are the trigger," said University of Miami scientist Shimon Wdowinski, an associate research professor of marine geology and geophysics.
Least difficult = more believable.
The weight of the surface is carried off at 45 degrees through the ground below. Most earthquakes are disturbances of aquifers several miles below the surface, so even if he is right, he is about as far from the truth as can be:
1. Haiti is an Island. 45 degrees below it is several miles as the pyramid lies.
2. The epicentre was on the coast, there is more water there than anywhere else on the island as that is where it all goes to, especially towards large ports which tend to have large rivers.
3. If it isn't getting into the aquifers from the sea why should it suddenly get in there after a storm, storms only last a few days and they only occur sporadically.
"The heavy rain induces thousands of landslides and severe erosion, which removes ground material from the Earth's surface, releasing the stress load and encouraging movement along faults."
Wdowinski and a colleague from Florida International University analysed data from major earthquakes — magnitude six and higher — in Taiwan and Haiti over the past 50 years and found that large quakes tended to follow within four years of a very wet tropical cyclone season.
In some recent cases, quakes happened sooner, such as in 2009 when Typhoon Morakot in Taiwan was followed the same year by a magnitude 6.2 quake and another 6.4 quake in 2010.
This is indicative of cycles and cycles are at best erratic. There is another step at least to this evidence and the result it relates to. Why would the increase in force during a storm not have an effect straight away?
One inch of rain on a square foot of land weighs 5.20 pounds. One inch of rain on one acre of land weighs 113.31 tons.
113 tons isn't much per acre. 4840 square yards, about what a man can walk in a day. in a furrow, guiding an horse pulling a plough.
Morakot killed 614 people and left 75 missing, burying entire villages and dumping a record three meters (120 inches) of rain in what is considered one of the island's worst natural disasters.
Typhoon Herb hit in 1996, killing hundreds in China and Taiwan, and was followed two years later by a 6.2 earthquake, and then a 7.6 earthquake in 1999.
After 1969's Typhoon Flossie was followed three years later by a magnitude 6.2 quake in 1972, the researchers said.
340 plus tons isn't much and even adding the wind effect is minimal, besides the wind effect and most of the water is a flowing system problem, The weight isn't static it is spread out rapidluy over the surface and dispersed before it can effect stable earth.
Mudslides take place relatively soon thereafter in unstable earth. And this is dispersed quickly too, it is in fact not a positive increase as it spreads the weight of unstable ground over water or the more stable ground but relieves the weight over the region where it came from.
The team also looked at the 2010, Magnitude 7 earthquake in Haiti and found it came a year and a half after two hurricanes and two tropical storms drenched the island nation within 25 days.
The quake hit in January last year and leveled the capital Port-au-Prince, killing more than 225,000 people and leaving one in seven homeless. An ensuing cholera epidemic left over 5,000 people dead.
The researchers said their theory is that the heavy rains and landslide shift enough weight away from the surface load above the fault that a quake is triggered.
"The reduced load unclamp the faults, which can promote an earthquake," said Wdowinski.
The hypothesis only fits areas where there are fault lines on an incline, such as mountainous regions where the waters would push the land significantly far away from cracks deep in the Earth's bedrock.
A good solution is an universal solution. Occams razor would indicate that one size fits all. Unstable land falling into the cracks would stabilise them if it didn't get washed back out again.
The researchers plan further study of weather conditions in the Philippines and Japan to see if the same links can be observed.
The findings were presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Society in San Francisco.
I wish I could have just a fraction of what they have already spent and don't need to spend on any more research.
Still I suppose since they have the access and the data it isn't going to cost them more than their training schedule would anyway.