18th December 2011 2nd Qtr at: 00:48

A wet spell -YMMV. …


This is the last analysis run of the last spell. It is now Sunday 01.48 as I write. So the old spell is dead. Long live the spell, Well, for the next few day anyway.

I promised you tornadoes but they never arrived.

It looks like we might get unlucky.

If that Low moves between the two highs shown here, I have never known it to fail, the US will get a crop of Little Red Spot.

This is a spell for rain however, However, that's a good word. However there is an High over Greenland and just as you'd expect it, the Low building up right next door has made it grow.

Now, I know what you are all thinking: "What do you mean?" and: "How can it do that?"
Well, the answer is simple.

I don't know.

6 hours later the forecast chart has completely changed:

The tropical storm in wherever is still active and is slated to gain 5 knots in the next twenty something hours. It should be a TD by now and fading. Looks like it's going postal: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I'm not a meteorologist. Ask them.
Ask them how weather that traditionally crosses the USA from west to east in a slanted northerly direction could possibly fail to cross into Greenland and not mess up this spell for me?

What I am concerned with is how the hell I am going to make any forecasts if this spell is turned into last week's one?
If it knocks the code back an hour and an half no…
Damned maths..
…forward 1 1/2 hours (back 4 1/2 hours.) If I am right, and I am wrong.

Oof! It's late. I aught to sleep on this.

4.5 hours is worth a Cat 4 at least.


22 thoughts on “18th December 2011 2nd Qtr at: 00:48

  1. A well defined col brings a boat anchor to the North Atlantic. A lot of earthquake activity "should have taken place" Monday afternoon: Whatever the activity was it is continuing tonight with a col over, well, everywhere really: Earthquakes peak noon Tuesday. This is a forecast for tropical depressions: …except that it is volcanic in nature. Let me guess where; Hawaii and Sicily: That is what I call a classic Icelandic Low! And nothing much else anywhere: Until ElHierro surfaces: ] ***Let's have a decco at the North American: As usual more images~nings on the album linked to on the images.

  2. Last week's spell should have been tornadic and wasn't. This weeks spell should be wet and possibly windy but instead we have weather more usually associated with lunar phase times of 6 or 12 o'clock.1 hour out and likely to produce marginally large quakes of the Mag. 5 variety and small volcanic eruptions or quake periods.It will tend to produce tropical depressions too, maybe even some thunder or "lightning seen" reports in Britain.This sort of stuff tends to produce mists too. And snow on high ground. So maybe quite a bit in the Alps. Wet stuff though, so watch out for avalanches later in the season -on the news.(I won't be able to forecast that.)

  3. I'm going to have to take a stick to the way opera Photos works. Maybe put the images for each day in their own album.I just love all the extra work a badly set up server brings.

  4. 21st December and we are half way through the spell: 18th Dec @ 00:48The next one will be: 24th Dec @ 18:06.There's an hour's difference in their code but the weather so far at the time of writing is very similar to what the next one should bring. However the tropical depression in the China Sea has evaporated and things are in a stasis today: There looks like something brewing at T+84 but that is very nearly in the new spell and like I said it much like this one has been, only of course that one will be an hour out too if a tropical storm is developing, which will be …. Ooh!Very interesting. Anticyclonic.Oh dear! And a series of quakes is building in Japan:2011/12/21 5.1 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 22.301 142.227 4.8 GALAPAGOS TRIPLE JUNCTION REGION 1.738 -102.172 4.7 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 31.996 141.659 4.7 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN 39.594 141.999 Volcano Islands is right where that mess started last year. And that was after an anticyclonic spell that lasted the whole season. Let's hope it isn't going to be repeated.I'm not sure but I think the sequence in the album order is screwed up. You must sort it out for yourselves if you want to understand me.Sorry.

  5. On Dec 22, 7:03 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:> Blast!> > The first tornado in weeks and I missed it.> It's still available on the MetOffice's North Atlantic chart at> midnight 21 Dec.> (That's how good the Met Office website is. Nearly 7am on the 22nd and> they are still forecasting a tornado for the USA. Yesterday.)> > Never mind. There WILL be another one along shortly according to the T+24: > +24 for the same chart:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.htmlToo late:>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/111220_rpts.html>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/111221_rpts.htmlThese charts run noon to noon. Must be Jewish.The Lousianan was at 2:30 pm the Alabaman was at 8:30 pm; that is, they were both at 2:30 on Thaumaturge Time.

  6. We might just get another one on Friday. Then whatever I said was going to happen Tropical Depression going on Storm or volcanic stuff will prevent it all.What you should look for in the North Atlantic, is a Low leaving the USA or Canada and passing between a High in Greenland and the Azores High or rather an High at lower latitudes.The MetO charts are finally out, so the forecast for tomorrow will be a lot clearer.What put me off is that the Greenland High is being switched on and off like a light bulb. Does that look like the work of the sun to you?http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/460cf8f4bf379f5f#

  7. A big quake on Friday* according to the noon forecast for that day. Then potential for another tornado.I used to post on here but they didn't like my sense of humour. So what's funny about that?It's not my house that's going to get blown away.*I don't know how this works but when there is a surcease in the energy in the events world-wide, there is a bigger catch up.How does the planet know?It's exactly the same with the weather.

  8. I don't really want to post the charts on here until I can find a portal that allows me to upload a load of images at one go and doesn't mangle the order I set them in.I sound like an ingrate but the fact is that posting the wrong chart on here is worse than making me look foolish it is dangerous to anyone whose life might be at risk.I'm not saying anything I say will be taken seriously. If a bunch of scientists can't be asked, cajoled or forced to look at my work, then dynamite and wild horses won't do it either.If someone less :yikes: astute :yikes: looks at this stuff and it seems like cobblers to them… Well, they'd be right wouldn't they?

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    a surcease in the energy in the events world-wide, there is a bigger catch up.How does the planet know?It's exactly the same with the weather.

    There have been floods in Australia, notably around lake Ayer. The thing is that after overgrazing the land farmers in the region had been forced to the wall.And the basin which is at or below sea level, had filled with salt. The land had become poisonous to livestock.Now the rain is washing it clean. Let's hope it recharges the aquifers too. Before we got there the land was full of water though ostensibly a desert.The topsoil is so sandy pools soon drain underground. But they are still there if you dig for them.So you could put down wells and take too much out of the aquifers. then everybody suffers because of greed.And it isn't plain greed, it's born from necessity. When you take out a loan based on previous harvests, you go into hock to people who want their vigorish.Those people are not interested in blessing the land and keeping it in good health. They are only interested in what they can drain out of it.What's the difference between a banker and a gangster?What difference?

  10. . . hi W, just to basically say happy 'winter equinox' mate ! . . even tho you write great stuff youre fast becoming my favorite comedian due to the understated humour thats well and truly unique . .

  11. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    We might just get another one on Friday. Then whatever I said was going to happen Tropical Depression going on Storm or volcanic stuff will prevent it all.

    I posted the bulk of the above on a Usenet post of the same name as this. IIRC, the last thing I wrote was "You have been warned!"Since I started compiling today's stuff (23rd Dec 2011) I have realised it is raining. I aught to have known it was going to do that when the earthquakes stuff went up because:A severe quake = a change in the weather.Here are the only NWS charts in this album (so far.) It's a plot of spaghetti as the charts run from noon to noon and yesterday is in that case relative. Then there is my use of the term. ANyway, you can sort it out from the legend on each chart: *** 2011/12/23 5.9 M. 02:18:02 -43.491 172.844 NEW ZEALAND5.3 M. 01:06:25 -43.456 172.899 NEW ZEALAND5.8 M. 00:58:37 -43.489 172.977 NEW ZEALANDAll told, that amounts to a a good forecast and a lot of energy. What went wrong?I saw the Occluded fronts build up on the Atlantic chart, then die away. Naturally one would assume that their build up would coincide with the most powerful; quakes?Right?Wrong. I forgot that before a large quake there appears a warning from god. He will not do anything without telling his servants the scriptures say. I am his servant for this stuff.I have to be told. And the final message is that there is going to be a severe quake as soon as you see this sign: There is a surcease in the number and the power of the events, just before the big one.What exactly makes a big one I don't know.If you join these three together according to seismology rules you get a 6.2 or 3 I think. (I'm guessing.)Not a 17.0 M., at any rate.But how do they grade them? I think it has to do with not only how far the seimometer swings but for how long. Something called a moment solution. Moments are either degrees of time or degrees of arc. For a given meaning of the word "degree".In this case I mean the term as in "…to what degree?"Time and angle are measured thus:Hour; Minute; Second; Moment.You can steer a boat, using sail and rudder, to the nearest 5 degrees or so depending on the weather.Seismologists try to be a little more accurate than that.I think they are wrong about that. But I have nothing with which to replace it.

  12. NWS = http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.htmlNorth Atlantic charts = http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.htmlThe MetO charts run as a loop of forecasts based on the preliminary initiation chart at midnight of the first day.You can scroll through the NWS charts by clicking on the dated tab headers.As stated above, with the quake, all is changed. The new spell starts on the 24th Dec and @ 18:06 it is a repeat of the same phase a month earlier:http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.htmlbut that was at perigee.You can find out what tropical storms took place that spell at Unisys' site. And you can read up on the quakes from the archives at NEIC.Volcano reports are at the Smithsonian.

  13. Nice one.It will cost you time and effort and it may alienate your friends.Or you can come in on a free pass and be welcome anyway.

  14. Hi Tot.How come you don't have a lunatic asylum in here:GroupsJapan, Malaysian Friends, Ghosts and Hauntings, Queen fans' page, Science Fiction, Fantasy, and Horror Genre, AOTEAROA GLOBAL PROJECTâ„¢, ISLAM, Socrates' Cafe, StarFleet AcademyYou'd be more than welcome.

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