Matching spells

This run, from this spell:

Mirrors this run from the last one:

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20 thoughts on “Matching spells

  1. How do you make use of such material.Well first off, you need to understand the chart you are working with.Working on the idea that the spells are all labelled for us by the kind Mr Espenak from NASA……will drop you in the doo doo.Something called ocean cycles mucks it all up.All oceans have cycles where the pressurs vary month to month over a period of years in a manner similar to the equatorial Pacific waters do (El Nino/Southern Oscllation.)With the North Atlantic, the signal comes from Greenland.When that has High Pressure over it on sea surface (1000mb) charts, then the air pressure all over the North Atlantic will be in a negative "cycle".(I hate that term. The alternative word is: "phase" -which I prefer but I am using it for the moon/spells.)And the time of the lunar phase will produce weather totally different from that of a spell at the same time in the same season when the pressure over Greenland is low -a positive ph …cycle.

  2. All of which is moot -meaningless even, if we don't have weather reports we can work with.FORTUNATELY we have the ECMF:Originally posted by Wikipedia:

    ECMWF re-analysisThe ECMWF re-analysis project is a meteorological reanalysis project.The first reanalysis product, ERA-15, generated re-analyses for approximately 15 years, from December 1978 to February 1994.The second product, ERA-40 (originally intended as a 40-year reanalysis) begins with 1957 (the International Geophysical Year) and covers 45 years to 2002.A new reanalysis product, ERA-Interim, is being produced, to cover the period from 1989 to present as a precursor to a revised extended reanalysis product to replace ERA-40.In addition to re-analysing all the old data using a consistent system, the reanalysis also makes use of archived data that was not available to the original analyses.This allows for the correction of many historical hand-drawn maps where the estimation of features was common in areas of data sparsity. The ability is also present to create new maps of atmosphere levels that were not commonly used until more recent times.

    Ladies and gentlemen you are witnessing a resurrection to a more perfect state. And you are probably unaware of it.In the 1950's satellites were nomore that radio beacons.10 years later they were examining the make-up of the upper atmosphere.10 years later they were used to measure atmospheric changes and had become capable of radio/camera communication.10 years later we became familiar with international communication broadcasts, whilst physicists were experimenting with weather data models using the data they could gather.And getting it all hopelessly wrong. Remember the discovery of the Ozone Hole?And how everyone was blaming the penguins for using too much hair-spray and refrigerant?Well shortly after that fiasco, someone came up with the extended hurricane scale, putting IR and false colour images -as well as the daily weather charts onto something William Gates III said would never take off: The Internet.Then we had this:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.htmlAnd this:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/wesley/reanalysis.html#cdromBut it meant you had to know what you were doing, had the necessary software to manage the data and had something to do with it besides draw birthday cards and hockey sticks.

  3. Now we have these:From the USA My birthday all around the world.And what about these: From France The North Atlantic. Ladies and gents, we are on the home stretch.

  4. Originally posted by tdjmd1:

    All of that is too much data for my poor little and old brain.

    No it isn't.First of all you have only been a student of mine for a few weeks.Secondly you are Spanish and I write only in English, I'm virtually a monoglot.And we have been having more fun than work.So you probably Do know an incredible amount of stuff, it is just that it hasn't gelled yet.Remember that everything you thought you knew about earthquakes is wrong,you spent 4 decades ignoring anything about volcanoes…and that was actually "just as well",if you ever listened to the weather forecasts it went in one ear and out the other…and was almost of no use to you because you live in a tropical paradise.You should congratulate yourself on sticking it out. Most of the others have fallen by the way-side.(Never mind them, they will put forth shoots in their season too.)

  5. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    the necessary software to manage the data

    Yep. We need a prog for it due to my brain hearts yet. All of that is too much data for my poor little and old brain.

  6. Well, that's me for the night. If anyone wants to fill in the gaps vis a vis the earthquakes and storms for the last couple of weeks, be my guest.Remember, large cohesive Lows east of Greenland = severe tropical stormsSplit double and trebles lows in that area mean they are starting or stopping.But what I would really like to know is if there is any correlation between split lows west of Greenland and double earthquakes such as the recent double in Santa Cruz (NZ region.)I believe it was Indonesia on the 29th?***Have fun, break a mould.

  7. Which does specific ephemeric you need, huh? You've made me read all of your chatting so now, I need a task to do or, or I have to go to the bed?Tomorrow, we are going to the thermal waters. Can you imagine such a delight?

  8. Originally posted by tdjmd1:

    Which ephemeris do you need

    Anything that will give me the sort of thing that that Fourmilab stuff does. But I need it to be reliable.I was going to put a version of Linux on that Windozer that I bought last year. That has an ephemeris already with it. Celestica or Celestia. They have an help group in Yahoo. I came across it years ago but I was only looking for lunar tables.Fred Espenak put out his Moon Phases for NASA by then so I never got into it.I'd be like you with any of that stuff, a Lamer. And I really am slow with modern tech. It would be too distracting for me to learn it.Do you know anyone who is into astronomy stuff like that?Drag them over here if you do.

  9. None report there yet, Michael. Not yet.Today_raw_torn.csvRaw Tornado LSR for 120104 12Z to 11:59Z the next dayTime,EF-Scale,Location,County,State,LAT,LON,RemarksBut why do you think I could do all of that… I'm hopeless in it!

  10. What you could do is analyse what you already know of the North Atlantic chart.Make a list of the various developments in the Lows and Highs and how they relate to earthquakes and storms elsewhere.Look at he way the Atlantic had developed over the previous spell and with each day note the developments from the NEIC 5+M list and the Tropical Strom catalogue.Forget the Smithsonian list it is next to useless. But you can check out this site to find out what developments take place in the Atlantic before a tornado event occurs:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.htmlThere is one due in this spell, can you tell me when?

  11. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Do you know anyone who is into astronomy stuff like that?Drag them over here if you do.

    Ah, this is a simpler task. I'll try it!

  12. Originally posted by tdjmd1:

    None report there yet, Michael. Not yet.Today_raw_torn.csvRaw Tornado LSR for 120104 12Z to 11:59Z the next dayTime,EF-Scale,Location,County,State,LAT,LON,RemarksBut why do you think I could do all of that… I'm hopeless in it!

    Actually it will be easier to do it yourself than to convince anyone to get involved in this.I have just found a good ephemeris at a site called Ephemeris dot com.:http://ephemeris.com/I have only just discovered it so I can't say what it is worth.(Besides which I don't know what I am looking for.)The NWS storm reports site is about the easiest site to navigate. On the top of the chart is the title then the two links and then the warning that they are unconfirmed reports:Today's Storm Reports (1200 UTC – 1159 UTC) (Print Version) < 120103 Reports 120104 Reports > Note: All Reports Are Considered Preliminary Click on the link:< 120103 ReportsThat will take you back one day.Keep clicking that link andyou can go back for several years.The red dots are tornadoes and the blue ones are strong winds reported.The people doing the reporting are working on the Skywarn Network and are unpaid self taught amateurs. There are online courses available from them.(There may be Spanish versions I don't know.)This is the first date with tornadoes on it:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/111222_rpts.htmlIf you play with the numbers at the end of the link {/> 111222 < _rpts} you can go back or forwards faster. The numbers are the date in USAnian.(I think that one is the 11th day of the 12th month ..no, what am I thinking? That's in real English. It is the 22nd of December 2011.What an el stupido way to write!)I have placed alternate weather charts for 2009 on an album either here or in the Lunarist community. (I don't remember.)There are over 700 charts on it. If you scroll through them yu will see htat the tornado days are preceded by a chart that shows the North Atlantic.ALL the N Atlantic charts will show a Low pressure system running from North America to the Mid Atlantic Ridge.There they stop to gain 5 millibars of pressure and then carry on to W Europe.En route they will pass between two High pressure systems. One of those will be over Greenland the other will usually be to the SW of them, usually (but not always) just off Spain.Ususally the pressure of the Low is 975 and goes up to 980mb.I can't really tell you any more off hand. Take a ook for yourself and then we can take it further.When you get stuck, give it a break, tell your god it isn't going in and then come back when you feel like it.Whatever you do don't try brute force understanding, that not only never works but is harmful. It will make the science boring to you.That won't do a lot of damage though but it will put you off until you have forgotten how difficult you foud it.Like everything else, if you are not having fun you are trying too hard. Or you are not trying at all. Garbage in = garbage out.NTL, Have fun.Mike.

  13. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I have just found a good ephemeris at a site called Ephemeris dot com.:http://ephemeris.com/

    Stuff like that just ddn't exist a few years ago.Even the NASA moon phases were not online.I came here to the local library to find a copy of Whitaker's Almanack:http://whitakersalmanack.wordpress.com/shop/whitakers-almanack-2011/which is what I used to do a couple of decades ago.I never thought to look the stuff up online because it just didn't exist last time I tried. One of the librarians found it for me while looking up their stock for me.(I asked if they could get me an ephemeris or put one on these computers. No need now though is there?)

  14. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    http://ephemeris.com/

    That seems a good one. It is a Nautical almanac type as opposed to an astronomical type.In other words it gives you the declinations of the planets as though you were standing on the surface of the earth rather than living in the centre of it.I don't know how accurate it is though. Maybe I should test it agains the fourmilab one.Time's up on ths computer. See you later.

  15. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Actually it will be easier to do it yourself than to convince anyone to get involved in this.

    O… I'm an example here. A sort of guinea pig. 😀

  16. Originally posted by tdjmd1:

    Oh… I'm an example here. A sort of guinea pig.

    Don't they eat those like chicken over there?

  17. I heard they were a South American delicacy.I wonder why people keep pets like that. Or rabbits and mice and stuff.You can't "do" anything with them only cage, feed and water them. Then you are stuck with cleaning them out every day.Sounds like a self imposed punishment.

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