When South America lets one off it is usually one to watch.
When an African joins it… WATCH OUT! …
Lua a Cat 1 in the Southern Indian Ocean is going to make it to Cat 2 tonight according to: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
It looks from this loop to be a doozy.
Instead of injecting into the Antarctic loop immediately, it is going to join forces with a Queensland Low and cause some long needed more flooding in the Lake Ayer basin.
The south central region of Australia had been suffering years of drought until this cycle brought flooding to most of the Asian rim of the Pacific.
Salt had become a major worry in the Lake Ayer region. Maybe this will help.
When a large system of Low pressure is injected through the South African continent, as happens in this spell's drama, then you know you are going to be in for a ride. Of course, knowing where and when is still in its early days.
Blocking Lows should be the norm with this spell:
Mar 15 01:25
Mar 22 14:37
Should be isn't is though!
From the BOM chart a lot of precipitation has been injected into the sea south east of Cape Horn. Whilst the southern area looks calm at the moment, it doesn't stay that way long.
The rotational wave takes said precipitate to the region south of the Cape of Good Hope just in time for another injection of a little of what I fancy is a cascade.
Meanwhile the wet air over Australia is still building. Isobars get a little tight by mid day Monday at 60 East.
According to Darren Prescott on uk.sci.weather there will be a col over Britain about then:
So no blocking Low?
I believe I have worked out that Blocking Highs mean a trip to Japan but I failed to sort the blocking Lows out.
(Actually I believe I have been told but where do you draw the line between humility and bragging?)
Back to reality:
Can we have Blocking Cols?
Tuesday noon the Australian wet projects into Antarctica along the 140 E longitude joining a Low already in the 160 E longitude. So that looks like it missed.
Early days yet, as I said. Plenty of things can go wrong on a 5 day forecast. I'll keep a log of it at my blog if I don't get too badly affected by things.
You have been warned.
And I suppose, so have I.
I haven't recovered from that last spell yet!