Earthquake Lua.

When South America lets one off it is usually one to watch.
When an African joins it… WATCH OUT! …

Lua a Cat 1 in the Southern Indian Ocean is going to make it to Cat 2 tonight according to: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

It looks from this loop to be a doozy.

Instead of injecting into the Antarctic loop immediately, it is going to join forces with a Queensland Low and cause some long needed more flooding in the Lake Ayer basin.

The south central region of Australia had been suffering years of drought until this cycle brought flooding to most of the Asian rim of the Pacific.

Salt had become a major worry in the Lake Ayer region. Maybe this will help.

When a large system of Low pressure is injected through the South African continent, as happens in this spell's drama, then you know you are going to be in for a ride. Of course, knowing where and when is still in its early days.

Blocking Lows should be the norm with this spell:
Mar 15 01:25
Mar 22 14:37
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

Should be isn't is though!
From the BOM chart a lot of precipitation has been injected into the sea south east of Cape Horn. Whilst the southern area looks calm at the moment, it doesn't stay that way long.

The rotational wave takes said precipitate to the region south of the Cape of Good Hope just in time for another injection of a little of what I fancy is a cascade.

Meanwhile the wet air over Australia is still building. Isobars get a little tight by mid day Monday at 60 East.

According to Darren Prescott on uk.sci.weather there will be a col over Britain about then:

So no blocking Low?
Pity.

I believe I have worked out that Blocking Highs mean a trip to Japan but I failed to sort the blocking Lows out.
(Actually I believe I have been told but where do you draw the line between humility and bragging?)

Back to reality:
Can we have Blocking Cols?

Tuesday noon the Australian wet projects into Antarctica along the 140 E longitude joining a Low already in the 160 E longitude. So that looks like it missed.

Early days yet, as I said. Plenty of things can go wrong on a 5 day forecast. I'll keep a log of it at my blog if I don't get too badly affected by things.

You have been warned.
And I suppose, so have I.

I haven't recovered from that last spell yet!

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12 thoughts on “Earthquake Lua.

  1. I just posted the following to Reddit:The bomb would set off a splash not a tidal wave.It took a couple of years to make a bomb in the first place and another ten to find out how to stick hydrogen onto it.We are only now entering an era when earthquakes are being forecast, and even then not by the people who are being paid to cover that sort of thing.That aught to tell you a lot.It tells me seismologists know jaczjdt about tsunamii.Now I am waiting to see if it will be removed.The thing is if they remove it before the earthquake…Ah, I just realised the above contains a link to here.Ummm…We never should have given the Americas to those bloody people!

  2. On May 20, 7:10 am, charles <ckraftSPAMT…@west.net> wrote: > ScienceDaily (May 20, 2011) — When the magnitude 9.0 Tohoku-Oki > earthquake and resulting tsunami struck off the north-east coast of > Japan on March 11, they caused widespread destruction and death. > > Using observations from a dense regional geodetic network (allowing > measurements of earth movement to be gathered from GPS satellite > data), globally distributed broadband seismographic networks, and > open-ocean tsunami data, researchers have begun to construct > numerous models that describe how the earth moved that day. > http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/05/110519141622.htm It isn't possible to have subduction and obduction and massive earth movements fast enough to cause tidal waves. Not as long as action and reaction are equal and opposite.Whatever the cause of earthquakes it can't be that.A far more likely scenario is that acoustic properties of winds over mountains cause the original noise, the vibration starts of a beat that carries around the earth in a Rossby Wave function and arrives at the right place -from a variety of starting places, at just the right time to arrange a super-flux the equivalent of a super wave at sea.This could cause a strike and also explain the lack of tidal waves following massive quakes, generally. The system would require that the earth has strata, which it does.A range of mountains: ditto.And that the dates of severe seismic events coincide with suitable weather patterns; which it just so happen that it does so too, neither. A simple table top experiment shows the mechanism: Place a magazine open at the middle, central pages down. This represents the mountain range (one of them.)The acoustic effect is a free oscillation at or near the spine (mountain tops.) Just tap the magazine. As you will see the magazine tends to move across the table. Since a real mountain can not move far (and it also moves back depending on the application of sound) the motion is converted back into sound at the mountain root. (Or some other transition.)Some time later it all hits the proverbial. This would explain the delay in the train too. Something I am still trying to suss. (The stuff that results in the Aleutians and in Chile when a suitable Low or High leaves the Americas around Cape Hatteras is pretty nigh instantaneous.But given the extra-ordinary magnitude of a super-cyclone and its attendant super-anticyclone, the delay to a severe quake is more often than not a number of days.)http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/7f583f5ecab55a17/8ec27c264b6715ba?lnk=gst&q=weatherlawyer+tidal+wave#8ec27c264b6715baNot that Lua or the preceding storm Koji (was it?) were super storms, oh wait…..Not long now

  3. Doubly componded mistake in that the earthquake has not arrived.Following a cessation in events in the 5+ category in the daily NEIC lists we usually get a severe earthquake.It appears we got this: instead

  4. I can't believe that relatively minor spread of tornadoes in anyway makes up the energy budget for the magnitude of quake or quakes that should have been involved.Here is a link to the satellite image. The MetO chart to the event is to be found on page 5 of the album the above images link to.On the plus side I have had no psychosomatic/sympathy pains with these tornadoes.So that is a good thing for me.I wonder what air and shipping casualties have occurred. And if there have been any significant events in El Hierro or other volcanoes.

  5. http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcano_news.htmlThis is a far better site for updates than the one I normally go to however the Smithsonian will confirm the complete picture late tomorrow. (Wednesday.)http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/17/plane-crash-sweden-idUSL5E8EH0NI20120317http://www.jaunted.com/story/2012/3/19/142846/779/travel/Not+Another+Cruise+Ship+Accident.Looks like it's official then.Well we live and learn. Or die in the attempt.

  6. Russia's AM4 5 tonne satellite, launched August, may be brought down in the Pacific today (20th March 2012. I failed to reach its intended orbit.It was intended as a telecom satelite to work for 15 years:"We have decided to splash it between March 20 and March 26," Pivnyuk said "it was not damaged, it has spent seven months in an orbit that exposes it to radiation that has left it in not good shape. There is not much lifetime left. We've reviewed different proposals from different entities, but none was really feasible."Moscow-based RSCC has ordered a replacement to be launched in 2013.From SpaceNews.com

  7. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I can't believe that relatively minor spread of tornadoes in anyway makes up the energy budget for the magnitude of quake or quakes that should have been involved.

    Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Looks like it's official then.

    29th 5.0 M. 2012/03/20 22:25:43 GUERRERO, MEXICO 5.2 M. 2012/03/20 21:07:10 TONGA REGION 5.1 M. 2012/03/20 20:14:38 OAXACA, MEXICO < 5.1 M. 2012/03/20 19:02:45 OAXACA, MEXICO < 5.1 M. 2012/03/20 18:35:40 OAXACA, MEXICO < 5.3 M. 2012/03/20 18:22:35 OAXACA, MEXICO < 7.4 < M. 2012/03/20 18:02:49 OAXACA, MEXICO < 6.2 < M. 2012/03/20 17:56:19 PAPUA, INDONESIA 5.0 M. 2012/03/20 15:06:02 VANUATU 19th 5.5 M. 2012/03/19 23:46:34 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION 5.3 M. 2012/03/19 13:42:35 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5.0 M. 2012/03/19 05:05:00 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 5.0 M. 2012/03/19 02:56:03 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION 5.0 M. 2012/03/19 02:30:22 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 17th 5.1 M. 2012/03/17 19:50:23 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE 5.5 M. 2012/03/17 17:00:57 CARLSBERG RIDGE 5.0 M. 2012/03/17 15:49:17 CARLSBERG RIDGE 5.2 M. 2012/03/17 15:16:25 CARLSBERG RIDGE 16th 5.0 M. 2012/03/16 17:18:34 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS 5.7 M. 2012/03/16 07:58:05 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES 5.4 M. 2012/03/16 00:38:07 KURIL ISLANDS 15th 5.1 M. 2012/03/15 19:20:18 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 14th 5.2 M. 2012/03/14 21:38:56 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 6.2 M. 2012/03/14 21:13:11 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5.0 M. 2012/03/14 19:07:43 OFF WEST COAST OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, N.Z. 5.7 M. 2012/03/14 12:05:06 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.4 M. 2012/03/14 11:40:19 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.7 M. 2012/03/14 10:57:42 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 6.1 M. 2012/03/14 10:49:25 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 6.9 M. 2012/03/14 09:08:38 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

  8. I knew it was in there somewhere.I was expecting it the day after the missing date in the above list (18th)I gave in too early.I'll know next time to allow a couple of days.But I had thought it was delaying until the end of the spell. (They do that sometimes. They sometimes over-run into the next spell.)Either it was waiting or there was a different force at work. I kept looking for volcanoes but…Nobody badly hurt in the Mexico one as far as I can gather…

  9. These are the last of the earthquakes according to this spell:2012/03/22 5.0 VANUATU 4.3 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN 4.2 OFF THE COAST OF OAXACA, MEXICO 2.7 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 3.5 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII 2.7 WASHINGTON 3.4 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.6 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 4.3 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 4.1 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 2.7 PUERTO RICO REGION 2.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 4.4 CRETE, GREECE 5.2 KEPULAUAN SANGIHE, INDONESIA 2012/03/21 4.6 TAIWAN 6.6 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.9 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 2.6 PUERTO RICO REGION 3.3 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.3 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 4.5 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO 4.4 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 2.5 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 3.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA 2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 2.9 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 4.2 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 4.6 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 2.7 BAJA CALIFORNIA, MEXICO 4.6 OAXACA, MEXICO 5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO 4.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.9 OAXACA, MEXICO 4.5 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 4.3 OAXACA, MEXICO 4.3 POTOSI, BOLIVIA 2012/03/20 4.6 SOUTHERN GREECE 4.3 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA 5.0 GUERRERO, MEXICO 4.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 4.6 OAXACA, MEXICO 5.2 TONGA REGION 5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO 4.9 KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA 4.8 OAXACA, MEXICO 4.7 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO 5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO 5.1 OAXACA, MEXICO 2.9 SOUTHERN ALASKA 5.3 OAXACA, MEXICO 7.4 OAXACA, MEXICO 6.2 PAPUA, INDONESIA 4.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.0 VANUATU 3.6 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA 4.6 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA 4.7 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA 2.6 ISLAND OF HAWAII, HAWAII 4.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 4.9 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 2.8 SOUTHERN ALASKA 3.7 OFFSHORE OREGON 3.2 OFFSHORE OREGON 3.9 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 4.7 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4.6 SULAWESI, INDONESIA 3.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.4 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN 2.9 NEVADA 3.5 NEVADA 2.7 HAWAII REGION, HAWAII 3.4 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION 2.5 NEVADA 2012/03/19 5.5 SAMOA ISLANDS REGION 4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.8 NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL PERU 4.4 JAN MAYEN ISLAND REGION 2.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.5 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.9 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE 2.6 SOUTHERN ALASKA 4.8 NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN PERU 3.2 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.5 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA 4.8 SOLOMON ISLANDS 2.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 2.7 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 5.3 NEW GUINEA, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.9 OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2.8 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 4.6 BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 4.6 KURIL ISLANDS 3.6 OFFSHORE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.2 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 3.1 SOUTH OF ALASKA 5.0 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION 5.0 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 4.1 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN 2012/03/18 4.6 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 2.6 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 3.4 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 3.3 WASHINGTON 4.5 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA 4.5 FIJI REGION 3.4 PUERTO RICO REGION 2.6 ALASKA PENINSULA 3.1 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 2.9 NEW MEXICO 2.9 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.8 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA 4.6 ALASKA PENINSULA 2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 3.5 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 2.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.0 ALASKA PENINSULA 4.0 ALASKA PENINSULA 2.8 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 4.9 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND 4.4 SANTA CRUZ ISLANDS 3.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.6 BANGLADESH 4.4 NORTHERN IRAN 4.6 SIMEULUE, INDONESIA 4.7 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE 2.5 SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY, CANADA 4.9 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.6 SOUTH OF ALASKA 2012/03/17 3.3 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 3.1 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.5 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 4.7 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 5.1 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE 2.8 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.6 SERAM, INDONESIA 2.5 CENTRAL ALASKA 5.5 CARLSBERG RIDGE 5.0 CARLSBERG RIDGE 5.2 CARLSBERG RIDGE 4.8 CARLSBERG RIDGE 4.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.8 MONA PASSAGE, PUERTO RICO 4.3 COOK STRAIT, NEW ZEALAND 4.3 SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND 4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 4.4 LUZON, PHILIPPINES 4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.5 KURIL ISLANDS 2.6 SOUTH OF ALASKA 2.5 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA 4.9 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 3.4 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA 4.6 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.8 BANDA SEA 4.4 BANDA SEA 3.8 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2012/03/16 4.8 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE 4.7 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.8 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 3.2 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 2.9 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION 4.9 VANUATU 4.9 SEA OF JAPAN 5.0 SOUTHEAST OF THE LOYALTY ISLANDS 2.7 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 4.7 NEAR THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA 2.8 WEST VIRGINIA 2.7 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 4.5 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA 4.8 EAST OF THE SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS 4.9 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE 2.9 COLORADO 5.7 LEYTE, PHILIPPINES 3.0 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.9 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 4.8 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.5 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA 4.7 OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE 4.9 VOLCANO ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 2.9 PUERTO RICO REGION 4.9 VANUATU 2.5 SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA 3.6 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 5.4 KURIL ISLANDS 3.3 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION 2012/03/15 4.9 FIJI REGION 2.5 SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS 3.6 ALASKA PENINSULA 4.9 ROTA REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS 2.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA 5.1 NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 2.9 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA 4.6 NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 2.5 SOUTHERN ALASKA 4.5 SUMBA REGION, INDONESIA 4.7 NORTH OF SVALBARD 4.3 NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA 4.7 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION 4.6 OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPANThere appears to be one more in the mix according to:http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View***How did I do it?The darkness of the Lows close to the Antarctic continent give the severe quakes away.They build up from wet weather from the previous spell running through the lower latitudes of South America (mainly) Africa (nearly as much) and Australia (depending on the season for cyclones nearby.)These things come apart on there treks over the continents they leave. To get through the Blocking Highs in the oceans off the shores where they leave, they have to build up enough power to force the High over.All the systems move in a clockwise direction looking down from ther South Pole. If the power build up is great the pressure of the Low drops so much that the High is forced from its place and sent under the continent adjacent to it.This High then goes on to try and assimilate with the nearest High in the next ocean.But of course it can not dso this, it has its own "personality"; as does the other one.But a Low in higher latitudes can make use of the oscillations these Highs create, to break through them. It will thus be able to break through almost perpendicular to the continent.And it will generally arrive at the same place the dark Low has been held by the oscillating Highs.And this place is usually one of the Ice Shelves.Antarctic Ice Shelves are aerodynamic funnels for the Lows that pass them. They entice them in to their lairs and dispose of them like spiders catching flies.How does this occur?Ice Shelves are plains at the feet of 3 mile high mountains which are themselves covered in snow. The slope of Antarctica is thus a conic section. It is hemispherical. The water in the Lows is dropped in the glaciers and the now dry air become the Polar High.Everything the winds that pass over all of the southern hemisphere end up here. So does all the pollution they bring with them. (It is this pollution that provides the nutriment for the algae that feeds krill.)When the various dispersed weather patterns leave the souther continents they build up behing the highs waiting for an opportunity to continue.As they build, they force the Highs over. The Highs are squeezed past the south of the continents in a five day wave. And the Lows can edge in at an angle. They may take a full circuit of the continent before they are enticed to the dome.The peninsular that runs towards South America tends to trap the Lows and bring them recalcitrant ones closed in.Meanwhile more Lows are coming down the pipe.The isobars are pressed closer and closer together and take on the signature of a severe earthquake.When the deep low embeds on an ice shelf the whole system breaks awya once more. Hurricane force winds are sent up the slopes and form a standing wave above the top of the continent.And a series fo sever earthquakes follows.

  10. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    There appears to be one more in the mix

    Here we go with the last of them: Just south of Tasmania,about 150 E.With a jet of wet slipping in at 180. See how it winds itself around the Low: All over: Or is it?There is still a stark black but ever so tiny comma left till tomorrow.

  11. Considered sacred to most Asian religions, this mountain is at the centre of the geophysical world.Well so is Antarctica.Antarctica has a secular sacredness in that it is a region of special scientific interest respected internationally.I wonder how long such a regard will protect it from the ecologiacal disaster awaiting it as the rich vie to get richer on its mineral wealth.I give it 10 to 20 years max.I think the large companies and rich nations will start eyiing it up in 10 years time and start manoeuvring to get at it by 20.I think I will be dead and gone by then. I hope I am not wrong. I wouldn't mind living a comparatively longer life if I remain hearty and relatively free of pain.What I mean is I could be wrong and some are already looking too closely at its resources.And planning their attack.

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