The likelihood of a major volcanic eruption

The North Atlantic Charts had been indicating Iceland but… …

On Apr 9, 2:01 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> If you have a bit of dosh you want to chance on the hope of seeing a
> phreatic volcano erupt. Do it fast and do so now.

Cleveland in the Aleutians looks to be the best bet but the data from there is limited to what can be seen by satellite which isn't much with a lot of cloud. However:
Nevado del Ruiz Erupción probable en término de días o semanas =
Eruption likely within days or weeks

I( couldn't get the
> http://www.ingeominas.gov.co/?lang=en-US# to work:

Errors found while checking this document as XHTML 1.0 Transitional!Result:
26 Errors, 6 warning(s)
And

Errors found while checking this document as XHTML 1.0 Transitional!Result:
35 Errors, 5 warning(s) for the volcano page:

>http://www.ingeominas.gov.co/Manizales.aspx

http://validator.w3.org/

From the Smithsonian archives last Wodin's Day:

According to INGEOMINAS, the Observatorio Vulcanológico and Sismológico de Manizales reported that during 24-31 March seismicity at Nevado del Ruiz increased significantly.

Earthquakes indicating rock fracturing occurred W of Arenas crater, exhibiting a pattern observed prior to the eruptions in 1985 and 1989, although less energetic.

Starting at 1054 on 29 March, and lasting for about 25 minutes, more than 135 earthquakes were detected S of Arenas crater at a depth of 4 km.

At 0400 on 31 March earthquake signals indicating rock fracturing and fluid movement markedly increased. The Alert Level was raised to II (Orange; "eruption likely within days or weeks").

Seismicity remained elevated during 1-3 April; earthquakes were located below Arenas crater at depths between 0.5 and 3 km

The Cleveland report:

AVO reported that on 28 March the Volcano Alert Level for Cleveland was raised to Watch and the Aviation Color Code was raised to Orange due to the formation of a new lava dome, observed in satellite imagery, which extruded in the summit crater during the previous week.

During 29 March-3 April cloud cover prevented observations of the crater.

Elevated surface temperatures consistent with a hot lava dome were detected in infrared satellite imagery on 4 April. No seismic information was available because Cleveland does not have a real-time seismic network.

Also in Alaska:

AVO reported that during 28 March-3 April seismicity at Iliamna remained above background levels, although just slightly, during 25-27 March.

When not obscured by clouds, satellite and web camera views showed nothing unusual.

Nevada del Ruis at 4.9 degrees North:

INSIVUMEH reported that during 31 March-1 April and 3-4 April explosions from Fuego produced ash plumes that rose 500-800 m above the crater and drifted 10 km W and NW.

During the night lava fountains rose 100-150 m above the crater and formed avalanches that travelled towards the Río Cenizas drainage. Based on analysis of satellite imagery, the Washington VAAC reported that on 1 April an ash plume drifted 13 km WSW and a well-defined thermal anomaly was observed.

> http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20120328

That last one is intresting considering the run of earthquakes to date.
Mag five or over:

5.8 M. 2012/04/10 @ 05:09 1.1 S. -13.968 NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND
5.4 M. 2012/04/08 @ 21:43 24.1 N. 122.303 TAIWAN REGION
5.0 M. 2012/04/07 @ 20:38 1.0 N. -28.110 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE
5.2 M. 2012/04/07 @ 20:10 6.1 S. 130.687 BANDA SEA
5.8 M. 2012/04/07 @ 11:58 6.8 S. 149.549 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.5 M. 2012/04/06 @ 19:24 3.4 S. 100.453 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA
6.2 M. 2012/04/06 @ 16:16 4.5 S. 153.497 NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.5 M. 2012/04/04 @ 20:27 4.0 S. 152.091 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
5.7 M. 2012/04/03 @ 23:42 5.6 S. 133.894 KEPULAUAN KAI, INDONESIA
5.0 M. 2012/04/03 @ 11:52 40.4 N. 142.456 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

From the last one in Japan on the third, all bar one have been close to the same latitude. Meanwhile on Iceland:

If you ever frequent Jon Frímann’s blog, you know that he tends to find all the news about potential Icelandic rumblings.

News reports about the crater lake on Askja caldera having mysteriously become ice-free over the last month while lakes around it (that aren’t on volcanoes) and at lower elevations are still ice-covered. The lake isn’t ice-free until June or July. Few people have been to see what is going on.

> http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/04/unexplained-melting-at-the-asjka-crater-lake-in-iceland/

THe blogger remains doubtful that an eruption is likely just yet:
> http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/

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15 thoughts on “The likelihood of a major volcanic eruption

  1. There is a picture missing on my first post hre. It looks like it hasn't downloaded but left a place for itself.Here it is again: Or not, as it seems.

  2. On Apr 7, 3:00 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:(On another thread))I posted this to 5 Usenet news goups:NOW THEN AND AFTER: > > Here we go again again:> > > >http://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/rwi16/an_fa18_hornet_just_crash…When this ^ plane crashed ^ I immediately started looking for news of ship accidents as well as for more plane accidents. I found some:> > >http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-04/D9TTGEI80.htm> > >http://news.google.com/news?ned=us&q=air%20crash&btnG=Search+News> > >http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/04/uk-russia-crash-idUSLNE8330…> > This is from an year ago. No need to remind anyone of the earthquake> with that one is there?> > http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-17637006They tend to occur when a large magnitude quake is due.That is not, of course, the only indication. Actually, there are quite a number of indications for a large quake, first of all from the Met Office, the acme of contemporary science itself:The North Atlantic Seal Levl Pressure chart.> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/Too late now but ifg you want top check up there is a search site on the NEIC pags and a collection of past charts here:> http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.htmlThe chart can also be used to forecast tornado spells and volcanic activity along with the more obvious periods when a large tropical cyclone is about to whirl up. (I have written extensively on the subject but a number of new ideas have cropped up with this series of spells, so I will supply a recap/introduction to what I do.)First of all I would like to thank Will Hand from the group: uk.sci.weather for forecasting the end of the anticyclonic spell in plenty of time for me to go ballistic.***OK, first the lists. These are from the NEIC, most recent first:11th 5.0 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.7 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.3 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.4 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.4 M. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION8.2 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.4 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.4 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA6.0 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.5 M. ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA8.6 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. BANDA SEA5.1 M. SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.2 M. SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 10th 5.8 M. NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND 9th Nothing of 5M. Or over. 8th 5.4 M. TAIWAN REGION 7th 5.0 M. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.2 M. BANDA SEA5.8 M. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6th 5.5 M. KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA6.2 M. NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5th Nothing of 5M. Or over. 4th 5.5 M. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA11th 5.0 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.7 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.3 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.4 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.4 M. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION8.2 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.4 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.4 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.1 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA6.0 M. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN5.5 M. ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA8.6 M. OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.3 M. BANDA SEA5.1 M. SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.2 M. SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE 10th 5.8 M. NORTH OF ASCENSION ISLAND 9th Nothing of 5M. or over. 8th 5.4 M. TAIWAN REGION 7th 5.0 M. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.2 M. BANDA SEA5.8 M. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 6th 5.5 M. KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA6.2 M. NEW IRELAND REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA 5th Nothing of 5M. or over. 4th 5.5 M. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEAhttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.phpFrom this list you can see a marked absence of large quakes in the period of Magnitude 5 or greater. This phenomenon ALWAYS occurs immediately prior to a large quake. What happens with a super quake as in today's instant is perfectly obvious from the North Atlantic charts as a large long lasting Blocking High.A blocking High is a weather pattern that is classed as an anomaly or a singularity. We don't often get anticyclonic weather in Britain/Western Europe.If we do it ALWAYS breaks with snow on misty over-cast. Even in summer.Furthermore, on the North Atlantic chart, a series of fronts occur. They look like mice and and are called Occluded Fronts. (there is an explanation to the description of "Fronts" in a link on the METO's North Atlantic charts.)One more thing, something that threw me off:The behaviour of the North Atlantic weather patter prior or during a tornadic US spell, changes DRASTICALLY during a Blocking High. I hadn't really perceived that though of course, now in hindsight it is obvious that something about it would HAVE to be different.OK so I dropped that one. I am not getting paid for any of this, so if anyone wants to complain, he can take his genitalia off with him and do so elsewhere.***Now to the back-ground:You may have seen the Mel Gibson film Conspiracy Theory about a psychotic assassin turned bodyguard, whose ideas were that a world wide consortium was engineering plane crashed coincidental with earthquakes.Well, it does happen. Other accidents and even a couple of space vehicles have come to grief with the same format, a spell with a large magnitude earthquake.No! I am not saying these are engineered. The old maxim: Never attribute to planned action what may be explained by idiocy. applies here -in spades.People tend to lose track of their senses (of navigation and co-ordination) when there is something in the air preceding a large seismic event.I have at least looked at the matter. If you have too, then kindly offer me an example of when I went wrong. There have been a few but for the most part it is as true as any idiom can be.

  3. Hi, All, Snow just beginning to lie here, 1cm so far. 14:30Z NNE 25KT(Bft 6) vis 400 metres, snow, temp 0C dew -1C, 1001mb rising quickly Ken Copley, Teesdale http://www.kencook.magix.net***Wet snow/sleet falling here in the Vale of Mowbray but melting on contact with windows or ground. Visibility poor so I can't tell if there is snow lying on the North York Moors. Big shock for all the delicate new leaves that the trees and hedges have sprouted last week! Air temp at 5pm 2.5C and has been dropping rapidly since about 3pm. — Regards, Martin Brown***Wet snow/sleet falling here in the Vale of Mowbray but melting on contact with windows or ground. Visibility poor so I can't tell if there is snow lying on the North York Moors. Big shock for all the delicate new leaves that the trees and hedges have sprouted last week! Air temp at 5pm 2.5C and has been dropping rapidly since about 3pm. Hi, Martin, Starting to pile up here now as temp drops below 0C. About 6cm so far and still snowing quite heavily, roads covered. I expect the North York moors and Hambletons will have a fair cover. 18:20Z NNE 17KT(Bft 5) vis 300 metres, sky obscured, snow and blowing snow, temp -0C dew -1C 1005mb rising quickly. Snow 6cm Ken Copley Teesdale http://www.kencook.magix.net***Hi Ken , Here is a video of the snow down our road:-

    Nigel***Hi, Nigel, Nice one! It's a rough night alright, snow ploughs up and down the village but it's blowing back in after them. Currently about 10cm I think, but it's blowing around a lot. One of my wind vanes has parted company from the anemometer, could be headed your way! Could be interesting first thing before the inevitable thaw at this time of year. Ken***Even in our relatively sheltered spot there is snow lying this morning. Actually lying doesn't do it justice – plastered onto the side of every north facing wall would be a more accurate description. Some sun and blue skies now but temperature and wind chill make it painful outside. It is warming slowly now up to 4.2C but the wind makes it feel worse.. Snow on the ground is patchy on fields but wind blown drifts in places. I pity all the farmers with their new lambs in the fields in this! > 18:20Z NNE 17KT(Bft 5) vis 300 metres, sky obscured, snow and blowing > snow, temp -0C dew -1C 1005mb rising quickly. Snow 6cm Seems to have killed my electronic barometer too 😦 — Regards, Martin Brown***This was from another thread in th same forum uk.sci.weather dated April 3rd and 4th:http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/c7a5fbf71a7728d8#

  4. The fluid-flow cut-off and why earthquakes don't grow over-large. You can see from the way large wet air masses move through the anticyclone belt in the southern hemisphere, that the interaction of cyclones with anticyclones causes a cut-off action or blocking/de- blocking mechanism. Pictures: > http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p… Posted to: > http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/03/31/out-of-left-field?c… later. When a Low closes up to an High, enough energy is spent that a new High can be built to the east of the situation. This explains the continuity of Anticyclonic weather and their "usual" killing fields. One obvious example is the almost permanent Azores High. Another example is th migration of volcanoes along the equator in the Galapagos Archipelago for example. And (might) explains the extinction/awakening cycle in the rest of them. The blocking, when it takes place, occurs to the east of a system that normally supplies Lows. Even in weak negatives -such as the NAO throughout this present spell (from 30 March through to 6 April 2012.) The winds in both adjoining air masses are blowing in the same direction (and bring the misty overcast we are now experiencing. (And snows in winters in the UK & Lake Effect in the Great Lakes.) When this overcast clears we will have the much vaunted earthquake associated with Pakhar.) There is a thread on uk.sci.weather discussing vorteces, the analogy of fluid containers is used to demonstrate how a cyclone eye forms. But of course the eye can not form in such a manner in a collapsible container. Something outside the fluid mass is obviously holding things together (which is why the finest minds (other than yours truly's of course) with access to free supercomputing and interactions from all the worlds other nipple bonces, can't explain cyclogenesis/cyclosis. Pakhar is interesting as the fluid flow runs as close to the equator as a typhoon can get. And of course I have not folowed the developmewnt of the Antarctic weather systems long enough to gi#ve an account of things trhere with them. I don't have access to any reanalysis of anything Polar. So there is no point in trying or wasting time crying. Ho Hum, twas ever thus.

  5. http://my.opera.com/Are-You-a-Lunarist-like-Myself/blog/2012/03/23/i-must-say-i-am-rather-pleased-with-myself?cid=86319232#comment86319232If you are not watching the developments in the North Atlantic closely you really are missing a treat. The antics of that bloody anticyclone are breath taking. It's got control of itself for now but right on schedule moves off to Greenland then it comes back. And all the other fronts just don't know what to do with themselves. Two dominant fronts or whatever they are waves if ytou will, are: A system to the east that won't charge the Ridge and A large one that looks like it is related to volcanic activity, rotating anticlockwise and heading over Asia to (IIGC) Japan. The big one isn't going to hit this week. Or not as the case may be. (I'm pretty sure it is going to be very nasty. We will probably see more sharply defined volcanic looking weather first. A LOT more.)

  6. On Mar 29, 9:46 am, "Dartmoor Will" <w…@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote: > The frosty forecast is up!http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/weeklydiscussions.htm "Forecast for Saturday 31st March to Saturday 7th April 2012 issued on Thursday 20th March. High confidence that next week will be much cooler with more cloud and risk of overnight air frost. Rainfall amounts will be small. UV levels will continue to be high on the moor this weekend despite lower temperatures than recently, so take care in the sun. Moderate confidence on all detail. Saturday will be sunny with a light to moderate N or NE wind. Temperatures 10-14C depending on altitude. Perhaps more cloud later in the day. Good visibility. Sunday continues fine with sunny periods and good visibility. Light or moderate NE winds and temperatures 9-13C depending on altitude. Turning cloudier on Monday with winds backing NW light to moderate perhaps increasing fresh later in the day. Staying dry with moderate or good visibility and temperatures 8-12C. Some light rain overnight Monday into Tuesday. A much colder day on Tuesday with moderate or fresh N to NE winds with sunny spells after early cloud clears. Temperatures 5-9C depending on altitude. Probably a frost Tuesday night into Wednesday with temperatures down to -2C in low-lying places" ** So you think it will all be over bar the crying on Monday night? New spell tomorrow (30th) Low seismic activity today and yesterday: 2012/03/29 5.3 M. @ 00:36. SOUTH WEST INDIAN RIDGE 2012/03/28 5.2 M. @ 08:54, SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA A Western European anticyclone blocking the approaches since I don't know when. Pakhar going from ≤TD to a Cat 1 in 24 hours and well on its way to Vietnam. The Met Office giving its first forecasts in a weak or more that isn't full of developing or weakening fronts and showing the High moving out to sea followed by an invasion of red hot mice. And a very large low formating south of Australia from an huge input off Africa: > http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p… And you don't want to stick your neck out? Shame on you. It's only a game.http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/4024dfd743c4e7fa/e900e3ab0e96b5a3?lnk=gst&q=WILL+%2BWEATHERLAWYER#e900e3ab0e96b5a3

  7. Paul Crabtree View profile More options Apr 11, 10:19 am Well after 10 days of this month, rainfall is standing at 49.7mm. the average is 47.4mm. recorded 27mm in the last 2 days alone. Ground well and truly saturated. April Showers ? Paul Crabtree Brampton NE Cumbria http://www.bramptonweather.co.ukJohn Hall View profile More options Apr 11, 10:44 am In article <12796311.1911.1334135991618.JavaMail.geo-discussion-forums@vbbfj25>, Paul Crabtree <pacrabt…@gmail.com> writes: ***Your average for the month seems surprisingly low for a site in Cumbria, even for April. Are you to the lee of high ground when the wind is from between south and west? — John Hall Johnson: "Well, we had a good talk." Boswell: "Yes, Sir, you tossed and gored several persons." Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84); James Boswell (1740-95)

  8. 4 April-10 April 2012New Activity/Unrest: | Cleveland, Chuginadak Island | Fuego, Guatemala | Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia | Soufrière Hills, Montserrat Ongoing Activity: | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Pagan, Mariana Islands | Puyehue-Cordón Caulle, Central Chile | Ranakah, Flores Island (Indonesia) | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Tambora, Sumbawa Island (Indonesia) | Tungurahua, Ecuador***New activity also includes a decrase in activity.***Not much from Cleveland seen.FUEGO Guatemala 14.473°N, 90.880°W; summit elev. 3763 mINSIVUMEH reported that during 9-10 April explosions from Fuego produced ash plumes that rose 100-900 m above the crater and drifted 10-15 km E and SE. Explosions produced shock waves detected within 8 km of the volcano. Avalanches descended the flanks.NEVADO DEL RUIZ Colombia 4.895°N, 75.322°W; summit elev. 5321 mAccording to INGEOMINAS, the Observatorio Vulcanológico and Sismológico de Manizales reported that during 4-10 April seismicity at Nevado del Ruiz fluctuated but remained elevated. Sulfur dioxide emissions also remained high; occasionally a sulfur odor was reported in Manizales, about 25 km NW. On 5 April a volcano-tectonic earthquake, M 2.8, occurred below Arenas crater at a depth of 1 km, and was the highest magnitude earthquake recorded since February. During 4-6 April gas-and-steam plumes drifted NW. Gas-and-steam plumes rose 3 km above the crater on 7 April and 1.5 km above the crater on 10 April; the plumes drifted SE both days. The Alert Level remained at II (Orange; "eruption likely within days or weeks").TUNGURAHUA Ecuador 1.467°S, 78.442°W; summit elev. 5023 mIG reported that during 4-8 April visual observations of Tungurahua were limited due to cloud cover. During 9-10 April ash-and-steam plumes rose 2-3 km above the crater and drifted from NE to SE. Explosions were heard in areas near the volcano. Ashfall was reported in Capil, Palictahua, and Los Toctes on 9 April. Lahars descended the W flank on 10 April and caused the road between Baños and Penipe to close.That's most of the active stuff.http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/index.cfm?wvarweek=20120404

  9. 1. Joe Egginton Gales more than snow here. Must be gusting up to 50 mph maybe more. When I got up at 9am, a dusting of snow. Since 9am light wet snow. Temp steady at 35F since 9am. Joe Egginton Wolverhampton 175m ASL. Apr 4, 11:03 am 2. Weatherlawyer View profile More options Apr 12, 2:19 am On Apr 4, 11:03 am, Joe Egginton <joe.eggin…@googlemail.com> wrote: > Gales more than snow here. Must be gusting up to 50 mph maybe more. > When I got up at 9am, a dusting of snow. Since 9am light wet snow. > Temp steady at 35F since 9am. A couple of trees fell over locally that storm. One was in logs yesterday and the other just behind my house is still resting on the side of the weall it fall against. No real likelihood of damage and the shop the wall is part of has recently closed down so I doubt much will be done about that. I should get a lathe. Reply Reply to author Forward Create a group – Google Groups – Google Home – Terms of Service – Privacy Policy ©2012 GoogleThat's me finished for the night.I will check out the other newsgroups in the morning to see if there were any I missed.

  10. Weatherlawyer View profile More options Mar 23, 2:38 pm The next large earthquake aught to be Japan. However there have been few large quakes there in the last weeks despite all the High Pressure over Britain and Western Europe. Today (23rd March 2012) with everyone on uk.sci.weather moaning about how nice it is and how nobody told them about fog and all the rest of it (comparative drought conditions) I though it might be an idea to get set for the Japanese quake. Since the region is blocked we aught to be getting some tropical cyclones. So far there are none showing. Last year around this time of year there were notifications of depressions, storms and cyclones between February 1 and April 30 in 11 basins: South Atlantic – 14 March. South Indian – 9, 11, 15, 16 Feb, 17 March, 2 and 15 April. South Pacific – 18 and 13 February. West Pacific – 2 April. I don't imagine it would be a good idea to expect a cyclone in the South Atlantic to warn us of the next severe Japanese earthquake. But it WAS the only one just before the Fukushima business. There are 9 known events in that region according the Wikipedia: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_atlantic_hurricane Subtropical Cyclone 17 March 1974 Angola Tropical Storm 10 1991 Tropical Cyclone 18 January 2004 Cyclone Catarina 28 March 2004 Tropical Storm 21 February 2006 Subtropical Storm 28 January 2009 Tropical Storm Anita 8 March 2010 Subtropical Storm 16 November 2010 Subtropical Storm Arani 14 March 2011 So they are not completely unknown. What I remember of events around that time was an eruption in Iceland and a severe storm in the far north off Norway. This week, the MetOffice is indicating a lot of volcanic activity: > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html Archives here: > http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.html I'll put some of the charts on an album and a thread in my blog. I can't think of anything more off hand. More later.***Weatherlawyer View profile More options Mar 26, 12:32 am On Mar 23, 2:38 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote: > The next large earthquake aught to be Japan. And it still might be. But first let me clear a small point up here for the future generation that composes Weatherlawyer's ardent fans: There is an order of magnitude or so between what I meant in the first instance by "large magnitude" and what followed: > However there have been few large quakes there in the last weeks > despite all the High Pressure over Britain and Western Europe. Before the Superquake lasdt year there had been a sequence of lesser large quakes starting in the Bonnin and Volcano Islands. I'm glad I had the chance to clear that up befor anyone noticed. Maybe they haven't ben born yet, eh? > Today (23rd March 2012) with everyone on uk.sci.weather moaning about > how nice it is and how nobody told them about fog and all the rest of > it (comparative drought conditions) I though it might be an idea to > get set for the Japanese quake. > Since the region is blocked we aught to be getting some tropical > cyclones. So far there are none showing. I don't think this is the end of it: 2012/03/25 7.2 M. @ 22:37. 35.2 S. 71.8 W. Maule, Chile. – Show quoted text -The anticyclone seems to be intact judging from the starry night outside my window. I can't speak for the rest of Europe but I think that any changes would have shown up here. The only give away the storm was an earthquake was the way the Met Office was so unsure of the weather. So that seems to have left the door open for that cyclone off Newfoundland to move in. If it forms a block then we will be due another southern storm in the tropics.***Weatherlawyer View profile More options Mar 30, 4:14 pm On Mar 26, 12:32 am, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote: – Show quoted text -There has been a glitch in the matrix somewhere. I don't know how that Maule quake slipped in. It didn't figure on the charts for the Antarctic as far as I know. (Of course it DID appear on the North Atlantic chart but as a double quake. We all make mistakes, I suppose.) Anyway this is the next big thing. But I think it is going to have to wait for Pakhar to implode (A couple of large 5's or maybe 3 consecutive mid 5s.) Then (unless the intervention of the solstice meant what I imagine) the massive quake should show up in the Antarctic. So… Where got hit after the last Vietnamese typhoons?***Weatherlawyer View profile More options Apr 5, 11:03 am On Mar 30, 4:14 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote: > So… > Where got hit after the last Vietnamese typhoons? Tomorrow then (6 April 2012) as far as I can make out or is it 24 to 36 hours later? > http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/ Once more I will put the chart on my blog somewhere or other, later. Oh, nearly forgot. Looks like South America AND Japan/Indo China (wherever that was/is.) No real set up on the MeO charts. (It actually looks like volcanic stuff for El Hierro and (might it be?) the Cascades?)***Well nothing happened in the cascades as far as I am aware. The latest report from the Smithsonian is out so that's what I shall post next.

  11. This spell ends on the 13th.Just thought I would point out that the Mexican earthquake marked as a & yesterday was quickly demoted. Todfay the stuff in California has a Mag 6.9 in it at the moment.I have three charts covering the region they are thos three clicks apatrt. I will try and post them here in a minute but if you are quick you will definitely be able to see them on the NEIC site.So. Here are today's quakes so far:12th 5.6 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA 5.3 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA 5.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN 5.1 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA 5.0 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 6.9 GULF OF CALIFORNIA <<< 6.2 GULF OF CALIFORNIA 5.0 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA 5.0 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 11th 5.5 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 6.5 MICHOACAN, MEXICO <<<

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