Be it dry or wet, the weather always pays its debt.

A similar phenomenon occurs with earthquakes. In fact it would be worthwhile to inspect the whole mystery. Here is an extract from a thread on Usenet: …


> >>> Be it dry or wet, the weather always pays its debt.

> > A long time ago I dreamed up the idea you could forecast the magnitude of a quake by the time lag between them.
I don't know how naive that was nor if I counted mag 4s.

> > If I remember correctly an 18 hour lapse was worth a Mag 7. A 15 hour lapse a Mag 6 and a twelve hour lapse
…Something or other. Example:

04/05/12
5.0 16:23 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

03/05/12
5.2 18:08 NORTH OF HONDURAS

***

10 hours apart. I must have included mag 4s in the scheme. Either that or it didn't work very well. I then looked up the complete list that included stuff less than 5 M.

2012/05/04
5.0 16:23 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
4.7 10:55 VANCOUVER ISLAND, CANADA REGION
4.0 07:07 GUERRERO, MEXICO
4.5 06:29 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.6 05:34 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
4.5 02:54 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
4.8 02:31 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
4.3 02:00 WESTERN TURKEY

2012/05/03
4.1 21:45 WESTERN TURKEY
4.9 21:20 KURIL ISLANDS
5.2 18:08 NORTH OF HONDURAS

Not so impressive now, is it.

***

Someone replied:

Well in New Zealand we have had a 5.5 Mag quake followed by a 6.0 Mag quake approx 2 hours later. This happened on June and Dec last year.

***

I didn't say it worked I just noticed that there was a pattern that required an explanation. Obviously I dropped the idea for a reason.
I can't remember much about it now. This was a few years ago.

Looking at the NEIC list for the latest mag 5 quakes you can see there wasn't one since 4:30ish pm last night.

But we did have these tonadoes instead:

1903 6 W WORTHINGTON NOBLES MN 4363 9572 (FSD)

1910 WORTHINGTON NOBLES MN 4363 9560 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 3/4 MILES NORTH OF WORTHINGTON NEAR THE AIRPORT. (FSD)

1928 5 N ROUND LAKE NOBLES MN 4361 9547 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 5 MILES NORTH OF ROUND LAKE MN. (FSD)

1940 7 SW LAKEFIELD JACKSON MN 4361 9527 (FSD)

1949 2 S LAKEFIELD JACKSON MN 4365 9517 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN 2 MILES SOUTH OF LAKEFIELD MN. (FSD)

2005 5 SE LAKEFIELD JACKSON MN 4363 9511 BRIEF TOUCHDOWN (FSD)

2015 3 SSW SIOUX CENTER SIOUX IA 4304 9620 (FSD)

2022 3 N ORANGE CITY SIOUX IA 4305 9606 (FSD)

2045 3 N SHERBURN MARTIN MN 4370 9473 (MPX)

2050 3 W PRIMGHAR O'BRIEN IA 4309 9569 (FSD)

2141 3 SSE RUTHVEN PALO ALTO IA 4309 9488 (DMX)

2215 3 W ALGONA KOSSUTH IA 4307 9429 FUNNEL CLOUD REACHING TO THE GROUND. NO DEBRIS OBSERVED AND QUICKLY BECAME RAIN WRAPPED. (DMX)

2253 2 S KIESTER FARIBAULT MN 4351 9371 (MPX)

2302 1 NW KIESTER FARIBAULT MN 4355 9373 TREES DAMAGED FROM THE
TORNADO. (MPX)

2303 5 N GOLDFIELD WRIGHT IA 4281 9392 STRONGLY ROTATING WALL CLOUD WITH A CIRCULATION ON THE GROUND. (DMX)

And that is just for a small part of just one continent. We had some strong winds here last night. We don't have a tornado watch like they have in the USA. In fact most people in Britain are unaware that we have more tornadoes per square mile than any other country in the world.

Usually that is because of the size of our tornadoes but also, the weather changes so quickly over here that people take little notice of it despite the clich├ęs.

In fact, I did say that I was expecting the geo-phenomena to be wind; -tornadoes.

I had presumed because of the time of the phase that things would or could become volcanic. But I suspect volcanic activity is not much more than background level.

Tornadic activity OTOH….

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

But going back to the other poster's comment:

> In New Zealand we have had a 5.5 Mag quake followed by a 6.0 Mag quake approx 2 hours later. This happened on June and Dec last year.

If you look up the dates for those events and compare them to the North Atlantic charts for the times involved:
at http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.html

You will see that there were suitable fronts indicative of the events, some hours, if not a few days, in advance of them. One of them will be an occluded front and one of them running parallel to it will be a mixed line of warm cold and occluded fronts.

There just happens to be an example of such an event running down the coast of Europe at the moment. (Noon, 5 May 2012: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html) It is running from the cyclone in the Baltic.

Also on that same chart is news of weakening and developing weather: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/guide/key.html#pressure

This indicates a change in the pattern which is something brought about by rapid full use of whatever energy is in the system becoming expended.

That is…
An earthquake (Actually 2, see text.)
I forgot I had just told everyone instead of an earthquake we had tornadoes. Then I wrote we were going to have ancouple of double earthquakes.

When in fact I should have said we are going to have either a pair of quakes ot a set of tornadoes like last night:

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4 thoughts on “Be it dry or wet, the weather always pays its debt.

  1. The red dots are the tornadoes. They cover the same sort of area that a series of earthquakes covers when four of five of them go off all in one place. That is withing a few degrees of each other and within a few hours of each other.Such a thing would seem to be improbable to anyone who has pondered how and why ground moves as vents collapse, which is supposed to be what happens with earthquakes whne a plume of steam gets trapped in moving plates the size of continents.Think of a plate as a bottle of pop. At any one geological time there are any number of earthquakes. But all of them will be around the rim of the bottle. (OK some will ovccur in the middle but mostly the fizz comes up the sides.)In the next geological moment, the next series of quakes comes up. Instantly in the pop but an hour or two -or a day or so, later in a plate.It is unlikely to be within one degree of the last place by a factor of 360 degrees to one.Am I wrong?But that is another argument entirely. What I am showing in this thread is that the relationship with earthquakes and weather has something to do with the fact that a drough is followed by a flood.And visa versa.

  2. There is a relationship between the tornadoes that strike the USA and the number of earthquakes world wide, generally. It is related to the North Atlantic anticyclone and is thus in many respects seasonal.When the anticyclone is on the western coast of the North Atlantic, the tendency is for tornadoes. When it is on the Eastern coast the tendency is for earthquakes.But as long as the Anticyclone lasts, the occurrence of earthquakes is minimal.Once the anti-xtorm breaks (anticyclosis?) we are given a thump in which the world catches up to the rest of the solar system. Usually a megaquake or two superquakes.And of course the situation doesn't end with the initial quakes. There is a reverberation or oscillation as the billions of tons of planet and moon (6,600,000,000,000,000,000,000 + 6,600,000,000,000,000,000,000/6 tons) settle down again into an uneasy co-existence.http://www.bigsiteofamazingfacts.com/how-much-does-the-earth-weighhttp://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/planet-earth-weigh.htmThe moon is 1/6th the weight of the earth but 1/81st of its volume.That means a lot of leverage is in constant change. Which amounts to a polar shift in it equatorial motion from time to time.The centre of gravity is somewhat offset from the middle of the moon. And those big eyes of the man in the moon are extremely heavy.It all turns out to make the mid point of the earth/moon joint orbit some 2000 miles below the surface of the earth. A central point that includes the entire mass of the solar system (which is usually given as the sun, which itself is not at the centre of the solar system and is a very large and extremely motile ball of fuzz to start with.)This central point is called the barycentre and moves at the speed of the tides. (The alleged tides.)It's all very complicated and requires oodles of computing power and brainiacs to complete an accurate ephemeris of it all for just one year -which is usually in need of correcting by the time the printers finish with it.Don't let that put you off.Anyone can do the puzzle.

  3. 2012/05/10 5.2 M. @ 19:11:22 1.393 126.324 MOLUCCA SEA4.7 M. @ 16:15:31 S. 20.105 W. 178.338 FIJI REGION4.7 M. @ 08:34:54 36.765 141.149 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN5.1 M. @ 07:31:31 0.184 122.314 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA4.7 M. @ 06:41:21 39.827 142.091 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.4 M. @ 06:01:30 42.786 144.549 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION4.3 M. @ 02:23:20 62.895 W. 152.563 CENTRAL ALASKA5.2 M. @ 02:13:57 S. 28.682 W. 112.541 EASTER ISLAND REGION5.9 M. @ 02:13:56 S. 28.656 W. 112.508 EASTER ISLAND REGION5.2 M. @ 00:28:23 39.866 142.185 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPANI'm going to count these as a 6 to 6.5 Magnitude:5.2 M. @ 02:13:57 S. 28.682 W. 112.541 EASTER ISLAND REGION5.9 M. @ 02:13:56 S. 28.656 W. 112.508 EASTER ISLAND REGIONWhich would make these very nearly the same:4.7 M. @ 08:34:54 36.765 141.149 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.7 M. @ 06:41:21 39.827 142.091 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.4 M. @ 06:01:30 42.786 144.549 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION5.2 M. @ 00:28:23 39.866 142.185 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPANTo within 1 Magnitude either way.Which just leavesd these:5.2 M. @ 19:11:22 1.393 126.324 MOLUCCA SEA4.7 M. @ 16:15:31 S. 20.105 W. 178.338 FIJI REGION5.1 M. @ 07:31:31 0.184 122.314 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA4.3 M. @ 02:23:20 62.895 W. 152.563 CENTRAL ALASKAAnd these:1740 RICARDO KLEBERG TX 2742 9791 REPORT OF TORNADO NEAR RICARDO. MAGNITUDE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. (CRP)1848 5 SE WHITSETT LIVE OAK TX 2858 9820 REPORT OF TORNADO … UNCONFIRMED … MAGNITUDE UNKNOWN. (CRP)1851 8 NNW RAY POINT LIVE OAK TX 2858 9813 SMALL ROPE TORNADO WAS DOWN FOR ABOUT A MINUTE … HAS LIFTED (CRP)1932 5 SSW NELL LIVE OAK TX 2863 9809 BREIFLY ON GROUND (CRP)2015 3 NW HOCHHEIM GONZALES TX 2935 9733 DPS TROOPER WITNESSED SMALL TORNADO WEST OF HWY 183 (EWX)Four on the list but three on th picture though the middle one looks fat enough for two.

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