4th to 11th June 2012 @ 11:12 Anticyclonic

The North Atlantic chart is actually showing a long lasting cyclone over Britain. Well, it IS summer. …

5 June 2012.
I had an uncomfortable night and the Met Office chart is all change noon today. What could that possibly mean?

Friday on the Antarctic chart looks to be another tropical storm. Mawar is slated to become a gale today though it is still a Cat 1 tyoon as I write.

The next rorm looks to be a mid Pacific thing though. So perhaps it will increase in potency as it rolls along the Aleutians past Japan?

Obviously a blocking Low over the NE North Atlantic means a tropical storm too. As it is anticyclonic and that means the spell is about as far out of whack as it can be, the next tropical storm will be a Cat 4 or 5. Or 2 Cat 1s?

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17 thoughts on “4th to 11th June 2012 @ 11:12 Anticyclonic

  1. On another thread I quoted the weather forecast the Met Office made from the North Atlantic chart on 5 June:Originally posted by Met Office:

    Met Office view of 0000 UTC surface analysis:Occluded fronts positioned over southern and western parts of the UK are areas of cloud and rain, moving slowly north-eastwards. A ridge of high pressure lies over Germany, bringing mostly dry and settled conditions here with light winds. Various troughs mark areas of organised showers or thunderstorms. Updated: 0730 UTC on Tue 5 Jun 2012

    Noon that day the weather changed magestically. So anyoine could see that something was up. It turned out to be a storm developing off Africa:

    How do I tell them about the major resurgence in the Pacific?No..Wait…Or is it tornadoes?***Tropical Storm Twenty in the S. Indian Ocean. (I did say it was a complex set up.)The season in the southern Indian Ocean starts in June or July IIRC, so it must be coming to an end. Only it never ends there, not like the North Atlantic which has a quite sharply defined start and end.Thing get hectic from now until it runs off the map.Looking at yesterday's BOM Antarctica at T +72 it quite clearly shows a definition at 160 East that, if you follow it carefully runs across the continent to 20 East (Australia to Africa.)I was looking at the way the line bent instead following the isobars.Well, we live and learn.Some of us live. And some of us live and learn.Quite a lot of people get killed in the process.

    What I ended up doing was placing the last quote on the uk.sci.forum, where it will probably be glanced at by the few who don't ignore me and then ignored.I know it could be better but I fell I have done all I can.

  2. It is a derivative of chaos theory thast came about in the '60's when a mathematician juggled somme weather data and dropped a few decimal places. He noticed that the diagrammes he came up with varied so he worke don them a bit more and found that very very small changes in the data produced a composite that resembled a butterfly.Since then it has become a joke about an animal of very little consequence adjusting the weather so much it changed from a nice day into a raging hurricane.IOW, nonsense.It was never meant to apply toactual facts but to processed theories.Meteorologists adjust weather runs all the time. Or they used to nowadays they are stuck with cost cutting and time constraints.Not long ago most of the outlying weather stations were shut down or changed to automata so nothing could be done to rectify errors on site.But don't let me put you off. :p

  3. I love this thought, the debate.I think you are wrong, because of scale,time and hindsight.there are countless observations anyone can make from life.somewhere, we started, all things evolutionary point to the most basic and simple form as starts (as we understand them from research)and points to exactly the butterfly effect. I think we reverse think this. You and I 'are' because of the minute little change in the most basic building blocks of our our form.we have found the answers to our our biggest questions, by looking at the very small.:coffee: you know what… they need a pulpit icon smiley

  4. I wish to hell Opera would get its coding sorted out. Fancy screwing up paragraph spaces in this day and age!

  5. I don't disagree that little things mean a lot.

    For want of a nail a shoe was lost for want of a shoe and horse was lost and for want of an horse a messenger was lost for want of a messenger an message was lost for want of a message a battle was lost and for want of a battle a war was lost.

    That is very true.

    Agincourt was won by very badly outnumbered troops because of the weather.
    But a few good men in the right place at the right time are far better than a hoard of muppets.

    There is no ral way a huge army can be defeated by a small one because of a muddy field. The very idea is ridiculous. The fools must have behaved execrably.

    I prefer to think the victory was due to superior training and tactics.

    The Battle of France in WW 2 was won by Germany for the same reason. British troops were extremely well trained to fight in WW 1 but couldn't deal with modern weapons and air power.

    A few years later a few hundred paratroopers stopped more or less the same thing happening in the Ardenne. They were outnumbered, had no ammunition and were badly dressed and fed. Also thy could not light fires for heat.

    The Germans had tanks and crack shot infantry with sniper rifles, backing them up. And the weatherwas on their side.

    It was just a matter of training, experience and tactics.

    When you put well trained and highly experienced men on the ground to help make decisive choices they can completely change everything.

    But a butterfly would not radically change anything.
    A general would be a fool to chance a message that might be decisive to just one carrier. He aught to send three by at least two different routes

    A messenger whose horse was liable to go lame would use the last few miles the horse had in it to find a fresh mount unless he was totally incompetent.

    Officers who couldn't see a situation turning nasty and planning for that contingency in advance are what Wellington called cocks-combs and poltroons.

    Originally posted by Unasia:

    You and I 'are' because of the minute little change in the most basic building blocks of our our form.we have found the answers to our our biggest questions, by looking at the very small.

    Disagreement is the staff of life to understanding.

    Small things change big things drastically. After my divorce my ex called me a child molester. I have had to carry that spiteful little joe job around with me ever since and it hurts.

    She only did it because she did something that got her sacked from her job at the same time we fell out over the house just after the divorce.

    What got me is that I had no idea what she was scheming. My fault for marrying a calculating spiteful schemer. But you can't put that on the record can you?

  6. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    She only did it because she did something that got her sacked from her job at the same time we fell out over the house just after the divorce.What got me is that I had no idea what she was scheming.

    Reminds me of a jokeHow many husbands does it take to change a light bulb? noneshe got the house

  7. Originally posted by Unasia:

    she got the house

    That made me laugh.What she didn't know is that I didn't want anything. But she was so tied in her own knots she wouldn't consider anything but what she presumed.She said she wanted to put the house on the market. Fine I said, thinking I'd get half. She said it was worth so much I went to an agents and got a better quote.I thought she'd be pleased.She hit the roof.What I didn't know was that once she got it valued she could make an offer for my share. So she just wanted to give me a low bid.If she'd just kept her mouth shut and bided her time I wouldn't have said or done anything about it.She's still there.I sometimes wonder if she is happy. Not that I am the slightest bit interested. Just as a study: Can people like that ever be happy?And can people like me ask people like her if they are happy and get an honest answer. I am interested in her a a character as she is exactly the sort of person nobody likes once they get to know them.But she is a person nobody would ever really get to know.If they are lucky.They are so much more interesting than nice people. All nice people are the same in most ways. All horrid people are different in their own particular way.I really liked that TED talk about "How to spot liars". That picture of Cheney. I have no idea what he was like but the point the speaker was making about "when it is over"…You just know that once you get close to a person like that, you are shit.

  8. You live with you. My ex hated me and spent 10 years messin with meand the next ten…she spent understanding. I get along with her.I hope the best for her, always. Its hard to share a life with anyone, some people are cruel…very, but not all.

  9. It's odd how women have that capacity for hate. I suspect it is that women very seldom see the dark side of men until it is too late and the men in their lives lose all interest in them.Then they go daft.And you are left like a stooge, wondering where all that suddenly came from. What you don't realise is that all the meaningless niceties you used to show them, all the cuddling and kissing, all the apologising even when it isn't your fault and all the chocolates and flowers when it really is…Just stops when it's over.And you can start going out for a pint with your mates just like before you met her and soon all traces of love in your life have gone. And everything is back to normal. You can dress as you like, talk as you like, scratch when you itch and not think about anything until shit happens, just like the good old days.I suspect that annoys them.Because they still have to put on make-up, wear their best uncomfortable clothes and look as good as they can in the sort of shoes that will cripple their feet by the time they are 60, just as before, always. Nothing has changed for them and it all your fault and you are never going to apologise for it.And it never occurs to you that you should.Fortunately they can do everything in their power to make up for it.

  10. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I suspect that annoys them.

    i have had days when my breathing annoyed a woman…ahhh the good ole days.:coffee:

  11. Originally posted by Unasia:

    i have had days when my breathing annoyed a woman…ahhh the good ole days.

    Sometimes a woman prefers a man to have rugged good looks andsometimes a woman prefers a man to have a scissors in his neck.

  12. Today's North Atlantic looks like a tray of bait worms is crawling over it. Then the noon one it's all gone.This has been happening all week and nothing bigger than a Mag 6 has resulted. I was expecting dire straights with hurricanes quakes and all the bells and whistles from Wednesday.Failing that, a large mag quake at the ewnd of the spell. Which usually means that a day before there will be nothing happening.But there was a Mag 6…Ah, it was a consecutive pair. That should have happened a few days ago:2012/06/094.6 M. @ 21:54. TAIWAN REGION6.0 M. @ 21:00. TAIWAN REGIONInteresting. So tomorrow we gat a couple of large consecutive quakes to make a Mag 7.2 to 7.5?To be honest I was hoping far a phreatic volcano eruption. Big time. Still there is another 2 or 3 weeks to go.Or not, as the case may be.

  13. and how dare you get back on topic!I almost had an 2lb (american..sigh, I know..) ashtray embedded in my skull by first wife…I seem to evoke a deep passion within women to want to kick my ass…wonder why?God help the world we ever sat at a pub for a few hours.

  14. Originally posted by Unasia:

    I almost had an 2lb ashtray embedded in my skull by first wife…I seem to evoke a deep passion within women to want to kick my ass…wonder why?God help the world we ever sat at a pub for a few hours.

    I think it is just your natural empathy for people that does it.They think:"He gets on well with everybody. I wonder how well he can get on with this."

  15. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Originally posted by Unasia:

    I almost had an 2lb ashtray embedded in my skull by first wife…I seem to evoke a deep passion within women to want to kick my ass…wonder why?God help the world we ever sat at a pub for a few hours.

    I think it is just your natural empathy for people that does it.They think:"He gets on well with everybody. I wonder how well he can get on with this."

    I used to be able to run faster..and get away. not anymore
    I think it mostly has to do with me being dillweed, but nice thought.

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