Before the storm, the storm.

The last time I tried posting images to my blog the DoS prevented me but I will attempt to set it all out again today. …

The model run for Antarctica shows a confluence of cyclonic activity on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)

As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.

This is a severish earthquake:

…probably of the magnitudes we have been experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.

Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out, just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake; there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we are to expect.

Immediately on the chart following this quake:

…or multiple quake or extreme tornadic event…

judging by the length of it…

…a new set up I am tempted to call "clag" (for the moment) is smeared along the eastern portion of Antarctica:

This is a region of similar pressure, falling from 1016 to whatever, from the outside in. This is from Friday on but the time-scale is irrelevant compared to the signal given. (I am giving the picture as seen with the dates as shown so you can look at it yourself.)

What is interesting is that from the moment it is set up it intensifies the cyclone over the ice shelf at 180 to 140 west. And when that happens, the isobars stand away from the continent everywhere; there is no cyclone causing firm adherence:

Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east where the signal for the earthquake came from:

Outside this region, the cyclones seem to be barred from entering the storm core which is more normal here:

Further around the continent the isobars come closer to shore and all run parallel as much as they can.

This requires that the cyclones on the shore die away. Instead of climbing the ice and crossing the land, the meld into a giant glob of similar pressure surrounding the continent:

Thursday/Friday is the day after the next spell starts, the end of the thundery stuff but not the end to the wet:
19 Jun 15:02
27 Jun 03:30
3 Jul 18:52
> http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

There is more but I think I have said a mouthful for the moment.

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10 thoughts on “Before the storm, the storm.

  1. If you can't follow my meanderings, for heaven's sake ask. I don't expect as much from people on here as I do from Usenet and so I promise to be be nice.(If I can.)

  2. The situation is the same on today's BOM chart. Of course it is still too early to say but these things seldom follow through two model runs with 24 hour separation unless they intend to be important.Even so, tomorrow's (or the following day's) will be decisive.Lots of those occluded fronts (red mice) on yesterday's MetO chart (and more again today) that appear to change somewhat this afternoon without going missing altogether.

    Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east, where the signal for the earthquake came from.

    Take a look at that black line about 70 E., that runs from the coast to the Pole on Wednesday 06:00. That is an interesting signal.I don't know the code (yet) but it is signalling until noon Friday.The next spell is actually a wetter version of this week's:Tuesday 3 July @ 18:52 Wednesday 11 July @ 01:48. (This one is either wet wet wet or tornadic. Not sure. Look for masses of striations. Or blue skies leading to mare's tails.)Thursday 19 July @ 04:24 is a volcanic spell. Following on from two very wet spells (IF!!) and a previous very wet couple of spells (which they most certainly were in some places) things could become very interesting.I believe that the region concerned has to recharge its aquifers and boil them. If there has been deforestation in the area, lookout for flash floods and landslides instead.http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.htmlThe Atlantic chart is showing a marked change after today. It might even amount to a blocking high. Because it is the start of a spell today (Tuesday 3rd) and the model runs having been taken before it set in, it will take a day or so to clarify.With a double High in the North Atlantic, there could be a lot of tornadoes in the USA. At present the chart just shows them as storms (if at all?)Not sure.I'll explain it on the blog if I can.If the High stays focussed on the Greenland-Iceland region, it will change the character of the spell from wet to dry (in Britain. YMWV.)For those whose interest in the weather is not pan-galactic like mine, there has been a severe heatwave in the USA and at the same time flooding in North America.Other places suffering too no doubt.However, so far there have been surprisingly few tornadoes considering the conditions. Compare:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120624_rpts.htmlwithhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.htmlandhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120701_rpts.htmlfor instance.(Not that tornadoes couldn't have made up for things in Canada or even Mexico -though Mexico is more likely earlier in the year when the solar declination is lower.)***This is the situation on today's BOM chart too. Of course it is still too early to say but these things seldom follow through two model runs with 24 hour separation unless they intend to be important.Even so, tomorrow's (or the following day) will be decisive.Lots of those occluded fronts (red mice) on yesterday's MetO chart and more again today; that appear to change somewhat this afternoon without going missing altogether.> Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic> Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east where the signal for the> earthquake came from.Take a look at that black line about 70 E. that runs from the coast to the Pole on Wednesday 06:00.That is an interesting signal.I don't know the code (yet) but it is signalling until noon Friday.The next spell is actually a wetter version of this week's:3 Jul Tuesday@ 18:52 11 Jul Wednesday @ 01:48 and19 Jul Thursday @ 04:24 is a volcanic one. Thus, following on from two very wet spells (IF!!) and a previous very wet couple of spells (which they most certainly were in some places) things could become very interesting.http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.htmlThe Atlantic chart is showing a marked change after today. It might even amount to a blocking high. Being the start of a spell today (Tuesday 3rd) and having the runs taken before it set in, it will take a day or so to clarify.With a double High in the North Atlantic, there could be a lot of tornadoes in the USA. At present the chart just shows them as storms if at all? Not sure.This is the last chart in the spell so is the least likely one of them all to come out as such but…Look at the front reaching up from the bottom left hand corner.It is cold, warm, cold, warm and facing an occluded front that is forming (black, red, black, red; facing red broken with "plus" signs.)That is a very flattened out boat anchor looking thing. If it was more curved and running through the two highs in the whole set, it would be a sure tornad sign.It is contained on all the previous charts too. But now look at the model run:This is from the Midnight run it is the set up:And this is noon today (3rd.) Lots of new weather patterns and an occluded front rolling back on itself in what should be a Blocking Low over Britain:All the new weather in the south west has gone though there is more news to this:There is a languid trailing front set up diagonally from the USA through to thunderstors across central Europe into Asia:I can't make up my mind if this is a tornado spell going to push through or a blocking High forming:Considering all the frontage; the pressures are very low:We've done this one, haven't we?This isn't going to happen:If the High stays focussed on the Greenland-Iceland region, it will change the character of the spell from wet to dry (in Britain. YMWV.)For those whose interest in the weather is not pan-galactic like mine, there has been a severe heatwave in the USA and at the same time flooding in North America.Other places suffering too no doubt.However, so far there have been surprisingly few tornadoes considering the conditions. Compare:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120624_rpts.htmlwithhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.htmlandhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120701_rpts.htmlfor instance.(Not that tornadoes couldn't have made up for things in Canada or even Mexico -though Mexico is more likely earlier in the year when the solar declination is lower.)***From a search on Google for heatwave and flood; Monday evening 2July 2012:Michigan heat wave continues‎Businessweek – 18 hours ago:(AP) — Michigan remains in the grip of a heat wave that has driven temperatures as high as the upper 90s, while flash flooding from heavy rain …North-East faces flood fury, North India left parched‎Moneycontrol.com – 23 hours ago:While many areas in the North-East have been flooded, leaving … under the heat wave along with unprecedented power cuts and water crisis.Rains will be delayed by a week in the North‎ Chandigarh Tribuneall 117 news articles » Oppressive heat wave replaces Debby across Florida‎WPEC – 3 days ago:Oppressive heat wave replaces Debby across Florida. WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — Floridians are recovering from major flooding in several …Heat wave coming on heels of Debby‎ WDBO Radioall 439 news articles » Agencies expect flood of calls as heat wave settles in region‎Roanoke Times – 4 days ago:Medical personnel and social services brace for what could be dangerously high temperatures. Heat Wave Continues As Storm Cleanup Drags On‎Climate Central (blog) – 15 hours ago:A heat wave will drag on for yet another week in parts of the U.S., with …. Global Warming Coastal Flood Risk: The odds of extreme coastal …Heat wave bares down on the First Coast days after Debby‎First Coast News – 1 day ago:As a heat wave clamped down on the First Coast over the weekend, many were looking for ways to beat the heat and hoped it would help flood … Heat waves bake Rajasthan‎Business Standard – 1 day ago:Heatwave continued to hamper normal life in Punjab and Haryana today with the m · 30 villages declared flood prone. As many as 30 villages in Batala sub- …Heat Wave Sets More All-Time Temperature Records‎Climate Central (blog) – 1 day ago:Heat Wave Sets More All-Time Temperature Records …. Global Warming Coastal Flood Risk: The odds of extreme coastal floods nationally by …Heat wave hit Do not forget summer cooling‎Ningbo Expat Life – 1 day ago:Heat wave hit Do not forget summer cooling … Observatory issued the first high-temperature report this Table Mingmei flood season has ended …***From the last spell:Heat Wave Breaks – Severe Thunderstorms, Flooding Expected‎New Jersey 101.5 FM Radio – 22 Jun 2012A day after sweltering heat descended on New Jersey, severe thunderstorms are pounding areas all over the state. The National Weather Service has issued a.Heavy thunderstorms rock Ocean County, flash flood warning issued‎ The Star-Ledger – NJ.comall 2 news articles »

  3. Bell book and candle on that spell:2012/07/036.2 M. OFF WEST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.4.6 M. FIJI REGIONA large earthquake or a pair that makes up the difference always sees a spell out.And for some inexplicable reason there follows in the same breath a smaller one (usually a smaller one, though they can mount up or turn out to be the larger) in the region of Fiji, Tonga or Tuvalu.As here.So now we wait and see what happens with the weather.

  4. I just got this in my mail:Originally posted by Ree Trimmer:

    Major tornado outbreak about to unfold in Canadian Prairies A week ago when we were last storm chasing in Canada I thought it was one of the most significant tornado set-ups I have seen since 2007 in the Canadian Prairies. Today will blow June 26 out of the water.Strong tornadoes will be likely across central Saskatchewan starting early this afternoon and continuing through evening, with the Dominator Team (Reed solo stream) and other TVN chasers already in the field after all-night drives.This will be yet another historic severe weather day in Canadian history.Check out the chaos live at http://TVNweather.com%5B.quote]The site is a good forecast reminder from a dedicated chaser but he wants a couple of dollars for anyone to join him online.It's not a lot and I might take him up on it one day but I am in the wrong time frame for my mindset at the moment.meantime you might want to pay attention to this and that.

    (Not that you will find the score for Canadian tornadoes on "this")

    (Or not, as the case may be. (Tornadoes, I mean.))

  5. I've been thinking about that mysterious business about the end of the last spell when I was expecting something pretty much macho and only got a cease and desist from the Tropical Storms.I can't remember exactly what it is I said or where but it was for about the Friday or Saturday of the end of June IIRC.That would have been about the time of that derecho. That was indeed a "Super Cell" and an half!Here is more:Originally posted by Reed Trimmer:

    The Dominator team is heading north-west through southern Alberta to catch "mother-ship" super-cells as they develop over the Rocky Mountains and hit the deeper moisture over the beautiful high plains of the Canadian Prairies. Today we expect some of the most incredible super-cell structure we have ever seen, large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

    That was from an email on 5 July 2012 at 8:28 PM (presumably GMT as it is only 10 past 9 now.)So tornadoes are every bit as large and dangerous in Canada as they can be. Pity politics divides men so perfectly. But politics was never designed for people to live in peace.

  6. 2012/07/06. @ 02:28 (no idea if the exact time is important but it need to be checked out.)6.3 M. -14.7. S. 167.4 E. Vanuatu; is almost the plumb centre of the planet's obverse.Some time last evening, the storm qualified for a name and today it becomes a Cat 1.Belay that!> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2012/index.php4. Tropical Storm DANIEL 04-06 July 55 knots. Active.5. Tropical Storm Four 04-05 July 50 knots. Active.So before a storm, we get a quake.Who would ever have guessed?(Besides me, I mean.)I was only looking at the http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ data, so I was under-informed:http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2012/track.gif:

  7. On Jul 2, 12:14 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:> The model run for Antarctica shows a confluence of cyclonic activity> on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)> > As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather> preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs> directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.> > This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been> experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.> > Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,> just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we> are to expect.It is quite startling that the precipitation scheduled was still on the charts all the way through for the last few days.I certainly did not expect that.Furthermore, it appears that the phenomenon is associated with a series not tied to single quakes.Why it should have appeared to me that quakes are nor entirely a series set I can't think. I certainly had no misconceptions about plate theory and stupid pluminology or any of that daftological iniquity.After all once you get the sense of their tie-in with meteorology not even the sky is a limit.Furthermore. That stuff I was calling "clag", ribbons of isobars around the continent, now extend ALL the way around once the system settles out of that African input later today or early tomorrow.So it seems that following a major event, such as a massive derecho, all systems change.Isn't it amazing what you can see if you look?http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/6f74bb3eae3c55d6#

  8. I picked up a load of pictures on the derecho but since the originals are lost to other websites I can't honestly post them and give links.I'll have a think about that. There must be a repository for the good stuff with public domain ideals. (Not including pictures of downed trees. Come on, I mean, really? A record breaking wind pulled down some trees? Really?)

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I picked up a load of pictures on the derecho

    It has only just occurred to me that there should have been a large quake in the Aleutian following the derecho -some 80 degrees from the coast of North America near the Canadian border of the USA.A substantial storm crossed from near the great lakes to the coast over a period of some 10 hours killing at least 21 people and doing considerable damage.When it hit the continental shelf a substantial aleutian quake should have been reported:This is everything of Magnitude 5 or more:2 July2012-07-02 23:31:37 32km SSE of Santiago, Peru 5.72012-07-02 20:23:16 51km ESE of Bristol Island, Antarctica 521 July012-07-01 23:39:09 20km W of Vallenar, Chile 5.22012-07-01 22:01:27 86km WSW of Taybad, Iran 5.32012-07-01 02:49:48 42km SW of Borujen, Iran 530 June2012-06-30 16:24:37 112km WNW of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia 52012-06-30 00:09:05 167km NE of Chichi-shima, Japan 5.229 June2012-06-29 21:07:32 99km S of Dushanzi, China 6.32012-06-29 15:31:46 South Atlantic Ocean 5.82012-06-29 13:00:26 51km SW of Acapetagua, Mexico 5.228 June2012-06-28 15:51:59 110km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu 5.32012-06-28 05:51:49 17km NE of Iwaki, Japan 5.2This is everything of Magnitude 4 and over:2012-07-02 23:50:50 139km NE of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile 4.32012-07-02 23:31:37 32km SSE of Santiago, Peru 5.72012-07-02 21:23:17 215km W of Panguna, Papua New Guinea 4.62012-07-02 20:23:16 51km ESE of Bristol Island, Antarctica 52012-07-02 19:26:17 40km ESE of Atka, Alaska 4.82012-07-02 12:24:00 18km ESE of Pul-e Khumri, Afghanistan 4.52012-07-02 10:16:00 100km E of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia 4.82012-07-02 06:23:27 46km E of Namie, Japan 4.72012-07-02 05:49:25 89km SSE of Akutan, Alaska 4.22012-07-01 23:39:09 20km W of Vallenar, Chile 5.22012-07-01 23:17:14 243km SW of Merizo Village, Guam 4.72012-07-01 23:02:32 275km ESE of Lambasa, Fiji 4.62012-07-01 22:18:01 25km W of Fengyi, China 4.42012-07-01 22:01:27 86km WSW of Taybad, Iran 5.32012-07-01 21:48:11 97km S of Dushanzi, China 4.22012-07-01 17:44:59 129km WSW of Iquique, Chile 4.92012-07-01 16:19:13 64km S of Eid, Eritrea 4.82012-07-01 12:51:14 161km SSE of Sinabang, Indonesia 4.62012-07-01 07:54:20 12km SW of Alberto Oviedo Mota, Mexico 4.12012-07-01 07:49:53 11km SE of Kalbay, Philippines 4.62012-07-01 06:36:06 10km WSW of Alberto Oviedo Mota, Mexico 4.72012-07-01 06:25:34 88km W of Abra Pampa, Argentina 4.12012-07-01 04:23:32 Kepulauan Barat Daya, Indonesia 4.52012-07-01 04:13:52 28km ESE of Phek, India 5.52012-07-01 03:25:21 5km WNW of Delta, Mexico 4.62012-07-01 02:49:48 42km SW of Borujen, Iran 52012-07-01 02:04:38 15km SSW of Rota, Northern Mariana Islands 4.82012-07-01 01:43:26 286km WNW of Saumlaki, Indonesia 4.22012-07-01 00:44:31 58km N of San Pedro de Atacama, Chile 4.72012-06-30 22:56:59 157km SE of Modayag, Indonesia 4.52012-06-30 21:03:36 143km ENE of Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands 4.82012-06-30 19:43:24 81km NNE of Tezu, India 4.72012-06-30 16:24:37 112km WNW of Ile Hunter, New Caledonia 52012-06-30 15:26:32 250km SSE of L'Esperance Rock, New Zealand 4.82012-06-30 11:42:27 181km WNW of Saumlaki, Indonesia 4.32012-06-30 10:08:59 91km S of Dushanzi, China 4.62012-06-30 08:27:09 33km NE of Calama, Chile 4.32012-06-30 07:35:56 101km S of Dushanzi, China 4.62012-06-30 07:33:28 123km SW of Tres Picos, Mexico 4.12012-06-30 07:11:48 46km ESE of Ishinomaki, Japan 4.72012-06-30 01:53:55 76km WNW of Ferndale, California 42012-06-30 00:46:49 98km S of Dushanzi, China 4.52012-06-30 00:14:47 South of the Kermadec Islands 4.92012-06-30 00:09:05 167km NE of Chichi-shima, Japan 5.22012-06-29 22:37:04 222km SSE of L'Esperance Rock, New Zealand 4.82012-06-29 22:02:16 South of the Kermadec Islands 4.72012-06-29 21:07:32 99km S of Dushanzi, China 6.32012-06-29 20:03:41 147km SSE of Lata, Solomon Islands 4.82012-06-29 18:07:14 41km SSW of Amukta Island, Alaska 4.52012-06-29 15:31:46 South Atlantic Ocean 5.82012-06-29 13:15:23 South of the Fiji Islands 4.82012-06-29 13:00:26 51km SW of Acapetagua, Mexico 5.22012-06-29 10:01:43 South of the Fiji Islands 4.92012-06-29 09:20:52 181km WSW of Sibolga, Indonesia 4.92012-06-29 08:13:18 53km NE of Roshtqal'a, Tajikistan 4.22012-06-29 06:48:55 54km WSW of Tugu Hilir, Indonesia 4.62012-06-29 02:06:58 11km WNW of Vose', Tajikistan 4.72012-06-28 15:51:59 110km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu 5.32012-06-28 12:10:05 144km SSE of Krajan Tambakrejo, Indonesia 4.52012-06-28 11:49:13 18km SW of Chepes, Argentina 4.62012-06-28 11:36:59 149km SSE of Krajan Tambakrejo, Indonesia 4.82012-06-28 10:18:59 164km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga 4.12012-06-28 07:41:17 141km ENE of Hachinohe, Japan 4.62012-06-28 07:17:49 6km SE of Miahuatlan de Porfirio Diaz, Mexico 4.42012-06-28 05:51:49 17km NE of Iwaki, Japan 5.22012-06-28 04:55:15 10km SE of Kitaibaraki, Japan 4.52012-06-28 01:51:55 106km ESE of Tadine, New Caledonia 4.8I'll get the globe out and trace a suspect zone later.Anyone got any ideas?It beats me!

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