Spell from Full Moon @ 18:52. 3 to 11 July 2012.

American Pacific Hurricanes
Daniel, 5E and Emilia. …

On Jul 8, 5:59 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw…@gmail.com> wrote:
>  July 2012
>
> 4 Cat. 3 DANIEL         04-08 July 100 knots. Active
>
> 5 Tropical Depression FIVE_E 07-07 July 30 knots <<<
>
> 6 Tropical Storm EMILIA 07-08 July 45 knots. Active
>
> I put E for Expired as the title for this until I realised there is a
> problem with the legend above.
>
> Anyoldhow, this is the wait of it:
>
> 2012/07/08
>
> 4.9 M. @ 11:47. 45.9 N. 150.8 E. KURIL ISLANDS
>
> 5.8 M. @ 11:33. 45.5 N. 151.4 E. KURIL ISLANDS
>
> 2 consecutive earthquakes.
> So you see, it happens every time.
>
> As an aside, I'd guess that that is about a 6.2 Mag. equivalent,
> between them.

I have no idea what was going on between Unisys and University College London, so I went to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre Pearl Harbour:

Daniel is going to drop from 80 knots to 65 to 55 to 45 in 12 hour periods. Thereafter drop to nothing much in 5 days.

Emilia OTOH will pick up from 65 knots tp 105 in 48 hours. Evidently gathering the seds Danile has sewn:

WTPN (Typhoon warning North Pacific?)32 PHNC (Pearl Harbour Naval Centre?) 09:10. Message ID: General Administration, JTWC Pearl Harbour, Hawaii.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. HURRICANE 04E (DANIEL) WARNING NR 021. 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC NEAR 15.3N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT: 09:18. 15.5N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

24 HRS, VALID AT: 10:06. 15.6N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

36 HRS, VALID AT: 10:18. 15.7N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT: 11:06. 15.8N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

72 HRS, VALID AT: 12:06. 15.8N 144.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

96 HRS, VALID AT: 13:06. 15.6N 150.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

120 HRS, VALID AT: 14:06. 15.4N 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0412web.txt

***

WTPN32 PHNC 09:10. Message ID: General Administration, JTWC Pearl Harbour, Hawaii.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. HURRICANE 05E (EMILIA) WARNING NR 007 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
WARNING POSITION: 09:06. NEAR 11.8N 108.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 09:18. 12.4N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

24 HRS, VALID AT: 10:06. 13.0N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

36 HRS, VALID AT: 10:18. 13.5N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT: 11:06. 13.9N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

72 HRS, VALID AT: 12:06. 14.6N 120.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
96 HRS, VALID AT: 13:06. 15.4N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

120 HRS, VALID AT: 14:06. 16.4N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS – 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

> http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/ep0512web.txt

All this has lead to a very confused plot on the North Atlantic charts with a notable triple front with lots of mice evolving by late Tuesday Wednesday. (T + 36 to 48 hours on date of writing:
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.html)

So now I need to assemble some charts.
But first I will create some gif animations.
Which I will be a long time doing as I have yet to learn how.

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8 thoughts on “Spell from Full Moon @ 18:52. 3 to 11 July 2012.

  1. 1 Tropical Storm ALETTA 14-19 MAY 40 – 2 Hurricane-3 BUD 21-26 MAY 100 3 3 Hurricane-2 CARLOTTA 14-17 JUN 90 2 4 Hurricane-3 DANIEL 04-09 JUL 100 3 Active5 Tropical Depression FIVE_E 07-07 JUL 30 1005 – 6 Hurricane-1 EMILIA 07-09 JUL 65 1 Acti

  2. Looking at the forecast for the North Atlantic posted on the 10th July 2012. Animation here:There is a Low pressure finally moving through the once blocking Mid Atlantic High and joining the Low pressure over Britain.This is a classic case of a tornado event in North America. Only as of yet, there are no tell tale boat anchors or jelly fish looking fronts.Maybe I am wrong or maybe there is nothing showing yet because the hurricanes in the American Pacific are still powerful.The end of the spell falls on Wednesday (11th. Tomorrow.) So look out for a dramatic change…Only… the next spell is similar to this one:11th to 19th July 2012 @ 01:48.Hang on. It is a wet spell but well along to a tornado spell too.Hmmm…Be careful.

  3. Get rid of some data:11 July 2012 4.3 M. GULF OF CALIFORNIA5.1 M. KURIL ISLANDS5.7 M. KURIL ISLANDS3.3 M. KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA5.3 M. SOLOMON ISLANDS 10 July 2012 5.1 M. SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.5 M. SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA4.6 M. VANUATU4.7 M. SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION5.2 M. NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA4.5 M. FIJI REGION4.3 M. CENTRAL ALASKA4.8 M. EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN5.1 M. SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.5 M. IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 09 July 2012 4.4 M. KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA5.5 M. RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.8 M. CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.6 M. EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA4.5 M. MENDOZA, ARGENTINA5.4 M. SULAWESI, INDONESIA5 M. ALAMAGAN REG., NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS4.3 M. NORTHERN COLOMBIA4.6 M. HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION4.8 M. SEA OF OKHOTSK4.5 M. VANUATU4.5 M. MAULE, CHILE4.5 M. KURIL ISLANDS

  4. There is some interesting stuff here:11/07/12 4.3 M, 02:58:18 24.908 -110.438 GULF OF CALIFORNIA5.1 M. 02:50:03 45.344 151.519 KURIL ISLANDS5.7 M. 02:31:17 45.414 151.467 KURIL ISLANDS3.3 M. 01:02:25 57.845 -153.027 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA5.3 M. 00:16:10 -8.437 156.296 SOLOMON ISLANDS 10 July 2012 5.1 M. 18:09:43 -23.407 -179.805 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.5 M. 18:06:06 -5.091 103.31 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA4.6 M. 10:46:39 -16.67 167.158 VANUATU4.7 M. 10:43:52 -59.568 -26.241 SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION5.2 M. 10:27:00 -1.663 134.186 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA4.5 M. 09:05:18 -21.464 -179.172 FIJI REGION4.3 M. 04:06:54 63.437 -149.407 CENTRAL ALASKA4.8 M. 03:48:58 36.751 138.15 EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN5.1 M. 02:28:13 -25.224 -176.291 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.5 M. 00:32:29 32.35 141.673 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION 09 July 2012 4.4 M. 21:01:34 -7.56 127.563 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA5.5 M. 19:25:09 29.389 130.177 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.8 M. 15:40:21 0.806 -29.095 CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE5.6 M. 13:55:01 35.623 28.925 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA4.5 M. 12:56:39 -33.082 -68.277 MENDOZA, ARGENTINA5.4 M. 12:25:46 -0.191 122.769 SULAWESI, INDONESIA5 M. 10:39:01 17.145 146.106 ALAMAGAN REG., NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS4.3 M. 09:50:41 7.304 -73.135 NORTHERN COLOMBIA4.6 M. 08:30:19 42.039 142.975 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION4.8 M. 07:20:54 49.185 147.294 SEA OF OKHOTSK4.5 M. 06:29:24 -14.277 167.268 VANUATU4.5 M. 01:44:27 -35.213 -72.069 MAULE, CHILE4.5 M. 01:34:50 46.493 149.148 KURIL ISLANDShttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php

  5. This is Daniel/Emelia falling over:11/07/12 5.1 M. KURIL ISLANDS5.7 M. KURIL ISLANDSAnd the Japanese ones on here and maybe some of the Kuril Islands and Sea of Okhotsk ones? (I don't know) are from the demise of the Mid Atlantic High: 10 July 20124.8 M. EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN4.5 M. IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION09 July 20125.5 M. RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.6 M. HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION4.8 M. SEA OF OKHOTSK4.5 M. KURIL ISLANDSWhich just leaves these:11/07/12 4.3 M. GULF OF CALIFORNIA5.1 M. KURIL ISLANDS5.7 M. KURIL ISLANDS3.3 M. KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA5.3 M. SOLOMON ISLANDS 10 July 2012 5.1 M. SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.6 M. VANUATU5.2 M. NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA4.5 M. FIJI REGION5.1 M. SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS 09 July 2012 4.5 M. VANUATUMaybe I should have included the ones from Indonesia. I did for the PNG one. 10 July 20124.5 M. SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA5.2 M. NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA09 July 2012 4.4 M. KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA5.4 M. SULAWESI, INDONESIAFixed.All that region seems to be at the heart of "the ends of series". It did not appear to include a death rattle from anywhere noticeable.I have no explanation for that only resonances redounding and the fast that the Series of Hurricanes in the American Pacific was rather ornate. Not something that could have been known about until modern times.Instead of providing more clarity it seems to have added clouds to the puzzle holding the mystery.

  6. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I wonder what the eruption in Iceland looked like on the charts running up to it.

    Originally posted by Huffington Post:

    The eruption of the Grimsvotn volcano sends thousands of tonnes of volcanic ash into the sky on May 23, 2011 above Iceland.

    Originally posted by Wikipedia:

    Seismic activity started at the end of 2009 and gradually increased in intensity until on 20 March 2010, a small eruption started rated as a 1 on the Volcanic Explosivity Index.[2]Beginning on 14 April 2010, the eruption entered a second phase and created an ash cloud that led to the closure of most of Europe's IFR airspace from 15 until 20 April 2010.

    Now to get some charts from:http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.htmlYep!That's probably where I remembered the cartoon from.I'm good at this you know.

  7. There is not a lot of change in the model runs today. But it is early days yet. There is a long line of mice coming out of Canada so look out for tornadoes there:Meanwhile a black centipede is crawling along the bottom through that High and entering Western Europe from the south.Does it look volcanic to you.It is interesting that Japanese legends about volcanoes refer to centipedes. It's not where I got the idea of calling that cold front a centipede from. It just looked like one when I saw it just now. As for the relationship with Volcanoes. That is still a wild guess.I wonder what the eruption in Iceland looked like on the charts running up to it.

  8. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:I wonder what the eruption in Iceland looked like on the charts running up to it.

    I hope nobody thinks I am promising that a mountain will be lifted up and become planted in the sea.It's too early for that quite yet.However it is a fact that the more a spell repeats the more of it is repeated. However the spell for the last eruption of note was the same one for the Mega-Quake in Japan. That has not been repeated. Not by an order of many magnitudes!

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