I was tempted to send for a CD on the subject but at $75 for 1 and a beginners introductory course at that I thought I's see if there was anything online I could get for a lot less than fifty quid. …
There is a chap in New Zealand called Ken Ring. He got into hot water from some self styled experts.
This thread was posted to sci,geo,earthquakes a month back:
A magnitude 7 earthquake located between the south and north island hit at 10.36 pm on Tuesday 3rd July. It was 230 km deep and lasted up to 50 seconds. It was felt by most of New Zealand.
A long discussion ensued about the relative values of values. The database in New Zealand being set some orders of magnitude higher than the overall average used by the NEIC.
Eventually the thread was subverted by an idiot or maybe someone with Aspergers?
He has this fixed rote he need to post belittling other posters over the fact the earth rotates once a day…
It's a long story but an extremely short one.
And I kept well out of it.
However I was motivated to join it all recently with some stuff about an Astrometeorologist:
On Wednesday, 4 July 2012 02:45:09 UTC+1, Brian wrote:
> Zombie Hampster <Z…@mouse-potato.com> disappeared up his anus:
> > On Tue, 03 Jul 2012 12:10:04 GMT, Brian <bcl…@es.co.nz> wrote:
> >> A magnitude 7 earthquake
> > It was only 6.2.
> No it was reported on the news as a magnitude 7 earthquake. This occurred on 3rd July 2012 and has nothing to do with past magnitude 6 earthquakes. It was also reported at Geonet as a Magnitude 7 earthquake
Here is where I joined in:
Read this tirade:
Originally posted by some Kiwi journalist nipple-bonce:
The New Zealand media have done a remarkably good job of covering the Christchurch earthquake. (Date? Magnitude?)
TV, newspapers and radio have all struck the difficult balance between the country’s desperate need to understand what happened on the 22nd and how people are coping with the right that each victim the quake has to privacy in such a terrible time. (Note how desperate and terrible things are.)
The media have also shown great restraint with respect to one particular story. Ken Ring, the astrological weather forecaster, claims to have predicted the earthquake. (Dates? Magnitude?)
I think Ring, with all his calculations and post-hoc explanations, is the very embodiment of what Richard Feynmann called ’cargo cult science’ – someone who does some of the things scientists do, but fails in the most defining characteristic by not honestly testing his theories against data.
Cargo cult: Chindits cleared a patch of forest creating a temporary dropzone.
PNG forest dwellers thought:
We'll have a go at this; see if the fools make a mistake. We can always plant something for the harvest if not.
Later, according to white supremacists, the idea was considered pathetic, cavemanesque imaginings. Australia and New Zealand, the well known haven for white criminals and racists (ie Civilization) seem particularly intent on perpetuating the story of the foolish and the fatuous.
I’ve had a little fun at his expense before but, really; as much as it makes me sad that we live in a world in which Ken Ring can sell his weather forecasts and appear as an ’expert’ on anything in the media, the worst thing his almanac does is take money from people.
Note the word: "sell". I got his book for nothing. The up-to-date version doesn't cost as much as it costs to self publish a book in Britain.
In the wake the earthquake, Ken Ring has done something much more serious. While thousands of people are devastated by a natural disaster, and terrified about what might happen next, Ken Ring claims to have predicted the earthquake of the 22nd and that a much worse one is due in March. So, let’s do what Ring fails to and test his methods against reality.
If Ring had really made an isolated and specific prediction that a destructive earthquake would strike Christchurch on February the 22nd then he might be worth listening to. His claim revolves around this post from his website a little more than a week before the event. Here’s the quotes he’d like you to pick out from that post:
"The window of 15-25 February should be potent for all types of tidal action, not only kingtides but cyclone development and ground movement.
Over the next 10 days a 7+ earthquake somewhere is very likely."
Well we have a date and a magnitude. That's a first for NewZealanders. A nation notionally related to a blind, once extinct, flightless, midget, ratite.
All evidence to the contrary… not.
You might quibble that the Christchurch quake, at magnitude 6.3, was about 5 times less powerful than the M7 event he’d predicted – but I don’t think anyone in Christchurch wants to argue about how strong their quake was.
Well they aught to. Unless they want more than Ken Ring to make them look like dodos. So let's quibble about magnitudes shall we… Oh wait…
On the face it, it really does look like an amazing coincidence:
Ring predicted a quake and it happened. But there is more to it than that, I’ve been through his site and Ring has also predicted earthquakes for, at least, the 24th of September, the 1st and 7th of October the first week in November, the 20th to the 27th of January, the 1st to the 5th and 19th to the 25th of March and the 17th of April.
(So again we have dates. But no magnitudes.)
In fact, in one post, giving him the +/- one day he needs in order to claim he predicted the February 22nd quake, he paints more than half of the time between the start of January and the end of March as earthquake risk: