9th to 17th August. 18:55.

The tropical Storm season in the southern Indian Ocean is the complete opposit to the North Atlantic's. …

Originally posted by Wikipedia:

The 2011–12 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It began on November 15, 2011, and ended on April 30, 2012, with the exception for Mauritius and the Seychelles, for which it ended on May 15, 2012.

These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the region; however, Severe Tropical Storm Kuena developed in early June after the season had officially ended.

The basin is defined as the area west of 90°E and south of the Equator in the Indian Ocean, which includes the waters around Madagascar westward to the east coast of Africa. Tropical cyclones in this basin are monitored by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Réunion.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_South-West_Indian_Ocean_cyclone_season

Whatever the case, at the moment the Met Office North Atlantic chart shows an Anticyclone over Britain. This means increased seismic activity in Japan. So maybe some more China Seas cyclones?

There is an odd blocked Low low on the North Atlantic charts at the moment though as it is is early days yet with this new spell, that could all change. It lasts fro most of the run and is depicted as laying off Spain between two Highs. Which could mean more tornadoes or is it derechos over the USA?

This is a real negative post isn't it?
As if we haven't had enough disasters this year.

But who wants pretty pictures if there is a chance that things will go badly?
Personally I'd rather be glad I am wrong and be prepared not to be.

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21 thoughts on “9th to 17th August. 18:55.

  1. Snowing in South Africa. A rare event at low latitudes. Something is wrong somewhere.We just have to wait and see.Now I am off to bed. Let's hope the planet is still here tomorrow. :whistle:

  2. Today's North Atlantic shows the Blocking High covering most of Northern Europe, a Scandi-High.After that the cyclones devolve into thunderstorms over Britain. It will be interesting to see the places that reverberate to them. That's for Saturday though. A lot could change before then.I think the BOM Antarctic map is pretty much in keeping with what happened last week a lot of potential quakes held off except for those cyclones hitting the coast between 140 and 160 East and glancing off except where they curled around into that niche just before the Peninsula. It will make interesting research later when things are a little less hectic to see if we can establish a connection with hits there and earthquakes in Fiji. There were certainly a lot of Fijian quakes in the list by the end of the last spell.All this before the new one officially starts. (18:55 GMT this evening.)9:45 and I still haven't even looked at the FNMOC charts. three of them with 31 charts each. 09:50 just counting!Back (not very) soon.If only someone would invent a computer small enough and cheap enough for anyone to afford, I could be saved all this bother. (Some hopes!)

  3. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I think the BOM Antarctic map is pretty much in keeping with what happened last week a lot of potential quakes held off except for those cyclones hitting the coast between 140 and 160 East and glancing off except where they curled around into that niche just before the Peninsula.

    It looks like the stuff hitting the coast around 140 E is bouncing around and coming back in again as a ricochet.The is a system in circulation in the overall system. It means (I think) that there is a series of tropical storms due.The North Atlantic looks more and more like a tropical storm will take place in there as the Blocking High moves north (during and) after the weekend.

  4. Speaking of map references, the Antipodes are:-35.906 -179.078 EAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, NEW ZEALAND-21.151 -178.358 FIJI REGION-16.475 -173.721 TONGA50.205 -179.408 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA51.520 177.047 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKAAlthough the last few are hardly on a great circle to the centre of the weather. Neither are they central to that ring of geological highs and lows.I suppose that excludes New Zealand too.

  5. Roasting hot day on Thursday , lots of cloud Friday until evening then just a few contrails and stratus -beautiful to watch.Some wet spell huh?Well hang on to your hat:MAP 3.6 2012/08/10 18:42:59 52.370 -167.361 25.6 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKAMAP 6.2 2012/08/10 18:37:44 52.691 -167.484 13.1 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKAMAP 3.2 2012/08/10 18:17:43 51.619 177.274 45.8 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKAIn light of the following, I aught to save those "maps" 1806 GREAT RIVER SUFFOLK NY 4072 7316 WIRES DOWN ON WIDGEN COURT OFF OF RIVER ROAD. (OKX)1811 BOHEMIA SUFFOLK NY 4077 7312 DOZENS OF TREES DOWN. (OKX)1814 RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK NY 4080 7312 SEVERAL TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF OCEAN AVENUE AND GARY WAY ROAD. (OKX)18:06, 18:11 and 18:1418:06 +11 minutes =18:11 +26 Minutes =18:14 +18 minutes =18:17 now find out how far the sound would get from here to there in 11 minute at anything from 2 to 4 thousand miles per hour.18:37 ditto18:42 and again.No maths for me I'm afraid!I'll just go by the tenet of the thing: There is no guaranteeing the order and I'm not going by magnitude or damage, just the list. At a guess I suspect you could play with the order of the lists and their distances and get them all to agree on the speed of sound.But that still wouldn't be proof. (Though it might yield a useful tool.)Sound can travel through materials made of more or less the same chemicals at totally different speeds and even frequencies. Consider sand and granite for example or slate and clay.And then there is porosity and the amount of water or air in those pores. (I don't actually think that accounts for much but it might prolong a shake -though at a cost to intensity.) I do think it is very interesting though.

  6. Where the line of front (the Front Line?) emds in a col or region devoid of either High or Low circles, that's where the larger magnitude earthquakes tend to gather. It's where the lines break and the sound goes underground.I wonder if that explains the behaviour of cyclones over the Mid Atlantic Ridge. With the sawn off North Atlantic charts prepared by the Met Office, I'm afraid that wondering is all anyone is going to do…But wait:

  7. 2012/08/11    NORTH-WESTERN IRAN 4.7 2012/08/11 15:21:15  38.315 46.7934.5 2012/08/11 14:25:15  38.039 46.6444.8 2012/08/11 13:14:07  38.359 46.7254.4 2012/08/11 13:05:55  38.606 46.9864.8 2012/08/11 12:49:18  38.209 46.7566.3 2012/08/11 12:34:35  38.324 46.7596.4 2012/08/11 12:23:18  38.322 46.888All consecutive, all in more or less the same location.You know what I call that?A change in the weather.It's not uncommon when a spell is out of whack with the lunar phase to play catch-up with a Mag. 7 to Mag. 7.5 plus. A run of similar phases all similarly out of what will produce a much larger one such as occurred earlier this year in Indonesia and the year before (13 months (IIRC) earlier) in Japan, though to be fair there were one hell of a lot of pre-quakes in the Japanese region.Before: And after: 08:35 / 19:03. Spot the difference.We had a strongish breeze pull through about 3 or 4 pm (fronts passing.) They are another sign, we get rain then normally, too. Not today though.Maybe there's more to come?

  8. Some forecast chart animations would be nice.Those storms should have died and it should be raining here. (YMWV.)

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Maybe there's more to come?

    2012 Hurricane/Tropical Data for Eastern Pacific:Hurricane GILMA. 07-11 AUG. 70 knots. Cat 1 ActiveTropical Depression EIGHT. 11-11 AUG. 30 knotsTropical Storm HECTOR. 11-12 AUG. 35 knots Active.Atlantic:Tropical Depression SEVEN. 09-11 AUG. 30 knots.According to Tropical Storm Risk: 12 Aug, 2012 7:50 GMT GILMA NE Pacific. 20.6 N 120.5 W. 30 kts TD Al N Atlantic. 13.3 N 58.9 W. 30 kts TD HECTOR NE Pacific. 18.5 N 108.1 W. 35 kts TS 24-hr Ahead Projections GILMA NE Pacific. 21.5 N 122.0 W. 25 kts TD AL07 N Atlantic. DISSIPATED HECTOR NE Pacific. 18.7 N 110.7 W. 45 kts TS

  10. 2012/08/126.3 M. @ 10:47. 35.7 N. 82.5 E. XINJIANG-XIZANG BORDER REGION.And nothing from the Fijian Triangle, though the Iranian ones still tremble.Meanwhile..Now you don't: Now you see it: It's all very odd.And we are nowhere nearly there yet.

  11. 4 down 4 to go:2 Aug @ 03:279 Aug @ 18:55 17 Aug @ 15:5424 Aug @ 13:5431 Aug @ 13:58 Yesterday's north Atlantic looked extremely interesting and:2012/08/147.7 M. @ 02:5949.8 N. 145.1 E. SEA OF OKHOTSK but:Still no real break in the weather.This is one for the records.Following the large quake in China on the 12th (see above) we had this tiny Fijian the following day:2012/08/134.4 M. @ 09:3517.5 S. 178.7 W. FIJI REGIONSo it was on the cards there would be more. I saw the Fijian quake yesterday but imagined there would be a larger one in the triangle before the next storm let alone next quake.I wonder what is to be learned from that?I'll put a run of animations on the appropriate album one day. I am still struggling with Gimp in this computer. (Just putting it on an old 8 GB drive in the other computer. It will be interesting how it performs. I will swap it for a light OS some other time. But it might be handy for working a few anuimations with for now.)

  12. Midnight last night the Analysis one:Just off France.The forecast for noon today:Now off Britain.And look at all them pink mice:984mb.That's not deep!But it IS south of Iceland:And heading west with a barrel full of mice:By now it has crossed the Mid Atlantic Ridge.It can't do that without shedding an awful lot of energyWhere's all the mice?

  13. Sweeping changes in the tropical storms have been a feature of this spell. Also, when the UJ shoud have had thunder, iran got a series of large magnitude earthquakes.None of that stopped a 7.7 M. taking place off the Sea of Okhotsk a few days later.So a few stroms changed names and a few places got hit with these things:6.3 M. Xinjiang/Xizang border.What else is new?Kai Tak becomes a typhoon this evening and starts to die the following evening.A cyclone in the Bay of Biscay rebounds off Britain tomorrow and heads back out to sea. And meanwhile it is full of mice.Something odd is going on. It has to be extra-planetary in nature.

  14. The trouble with subduction.The depths of some recent quakes poses an interesting problem. Bear in mind the schoolbook physics you have observed in the world around you from your kitchen to your workplace:Originally posted by University of Washington:

    Why and how do rocks melt?To produce an igneous rock we need to melt rock to produce magma. To completely melt a rock often requires temperatures well in excess of 1000 degrees Celsius. We know that temperature within the Earth increases with depth and that temperatures of 1000 degrees can be found at 100 km depth. Yet the mantle is not molten. There are four important concepts in melting. They are:1. Partial melt: Rocks do not melt completely at one temperature. In a rock, certain minerals and certain crystals melt before others. The partial melt of a particular rock will not produce that rock upon crystallization. For instance, partial melt of a Diorite does not crystallize to form a Diorite. In fact, it will form a Granite. In general, the lower the melt percentage (percentage of the rock that melts), the more different the melt is from the solid.2. Pressure and melting: As pressure/depth increases, melting temperature of rocks or components of rocks increases. A rock that melts entirely at 1000 degrees at the surface may require a temperature of 1300 degrees to melt at 100 km depth. This explains why the mantle is solid even though temperatures are very high: the melting temperature of the rock increases faster than the temperature in the Earth at depth.3. Water and melting: The presence of free water lowers the melting point. The effect is similar to salt on ice. Ice alone is a single component system with a melting temperature of 0 degrees C. The addition of salt results in a multi-component system with a lower melting point. In the Earth, the presence of water during melting can greatly affect the composition of the melt.4. Melt is less dense than solid: Melts are buoyant and will ascend if possible. Melts produced at depth migrate upwards, often a long way.

    swift.tahoma.wednet.edu/…/why_and_how_do_rocks_melt.do..Well that's the theories. What are the facts?Earth at the surface is cool. So called subduction has to have a force to make it work. And yet the energy lost to the system is palpably greater than anything we can imagine as the initial impulse.Whatever causes earth to sink below other earth has to have more force than the energy evolved in the subducted earth. Or how else could it go under and not only get heated but extract heat from the surrounding lower layers of the earth WITHOUT CAUSING IT ALL TO SOLIDIFY.See what I mean by simple physics?Now look at some of these depths:19.914.81045.916.446.350100621010.242.21003292.714733.51501146.28.970.387.5108.62545.314.54.31072.22310.143.520.314.5271.127188.30.424.420.5625.9 <<< Come On! Really?197.58825.4211.470.410.2352244.4612.39.7133.510518.3 <<< where did they get this from?62.31010112.91154.812.5133.690.938.4431.3 <<< I get it, someone's having a laugh!73.8258.514.9195.9107.110333.882.8138.69755.610142.21153.692.759.7127.610183.414211035.28119102842.149.88.3107.143.99.7114192.45.71022.243.28.625.629.127.244109.99.710.3825.61010108.510140.1101010109.89.957.725.226.4157.59520.634.9126.414808.3195.1597.4 <<<sillynumbersRus17218.266.528.355.222.225.612.942.935510.318.936.913.92514.87265.723.337.2216.861.61.9161.8214.1104610.112.36.758.956410.737.924.824.2150.235.173.47.727.911736140495.21049.3543.2 <<< They are making these up aren't they?10.110.131.3102.512.110172449.658.725.6362.620.1They were all from the recent list at the time of writing.Now ask yourself:How does earth "quake" at these depths?It can't be solid fractures can it?Answers in simple English on the back of an envelope please.

  15. No shortage of Tonga and Fijian quakes on the list lately.I keeping with a suitable sized earthquake and the cyclone in the North Atlantic, we now have a Hurricane: Well nearly:FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 31.3N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 33.0N 54.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 34.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 35.5N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 35.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH << That's not an hurricane 72H 19/0000Z 35.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 37.5N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH120H 21/0000Z 40.0N 22.0W 50 KT 60 MPH…POST-TROP/EXTRATROPPOST-TROP/EXTRATROP means a cold water cyclone. Extra-tropical = outside the tropics (not an Extra Special one.)Well that's about it, except for the parallel fronts/series of adjacent quakes and the Fijian full stop that will follow them."It's not an hurricane"But this might be: Well, it looks pretty flatulent and it's as far out as the Met Office charts go for the North Atlantic.This is interesting, out to 120 hours (Monday the 20th) on the BOM Antarctic charts -bearing in mind this is the last couple of days of the present spell and the next one will be well along by the time these forecasts are due: So, for the next spell? What matches do we have for 17 to 24 August @ 15:54:31 Jan 04:10 < 7 Feb 21:54 <21 Feb 22:35 8 Mar 09:40 29 Apr 09:58 <12 May 21:47 11 Jun 10:41 19 Jul 04:24 2 Aug 03:27 17 Aug 15:54 http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html3 pretty good ones but all in the wrong seasons. April might do, as it has the sun in the same declination, more or less.The others miss by nearly half an hour, making them comparatively different enough to be useless.

  16. That Antarctic chart at T+126 (next to last) looks very much like a lot of tornado activity.This would require a Greenland High, which would mean that the spell is out by 4 hours. (For some reason this works better than 2 hours the other way. But I have no idea why.)

  17. Let me try and explain the hours of a spell:15:54 (the actual time of the next lunar phase) = (more or less) 16:00.16:00 = 4, 10, 16 and 22 "hundred hours". (Both four o'clocks and both 10 o'clocks in 24hour~ese.)If it is inaccurate enough to cause error it can be said to resemble another lunar phase time.But, since we have a problem developing on the BOM Antarctic chart…..And it looks to be a tornadic spell; it means the spell is going to wrong by either plus four hours (or minus two. Forget about minus two, the deep black cyclonic masses on the shores of the cointinent indicate a large margin of error as the energy value is going to be massive.)+4 hours = 20:00 or -2 hours = 13:00.20:00 = the 2 or 8 o'clock cycles = tornado events.13:00 = the 1 or 7 o'clock cycles = cyclonic.Your mileage will almost certainly vary.About the above energy values:1. It's a forecast and thus can go very wrong.2. There is a constant between cyclone intensities and earthquake magnitudes.3. Severe tornado spells often replace expected earthquakes.If you don't believe me, stick around and watch for yourselves. I'll post the links on the appropriate thread.

  18. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    The tropical Storm season in the southern Indian Ocean is the complete opposit to the North Atlantic's.

    I felt sure there was a southern Atlantic tropical storm about to come during this spell.I was wrong.

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