New Moon @ 15:54. Weather for the 17th to the 24th August 2012

The time of the phase for 17 August is 15:54. This should mean the things that happen on this spell are the same as those that happened on previous similar spells.

Unfortunately life's not like that. …

The time of the phase for 17 August is 15:54. That is very roughly similar to the times of the following phases earlier this year; the three underlined dates being the closest:

31 Jan 04:10 <
7 Feb 21:54 <

21 Feb 22:35
8 Mar 09:40
29 Apr 09:58 <
12 May 21:47
11 Jun 10:41
19 Jul 04:24
2 Aug 03:27
17 Aug 15:54

http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

Let me try and explain the hours of a spell:

15:54 (the actual time of the next lunar phase) = (more or less) 16:00.

16:00 = 4, 10, 16 and 22 "hundred hours". (Both four o'clocks and both 10 o'clocks in 24-hour~ese.)

On the BOM Antarctic chart a few days into this spell there is what looks to be a tornadic spell following a serious earthquake:

Look at the black disc on the bottom of the continent (60 to 80 degrees W opposite the tip of South America.)

1. It's a forecast and thus can go very wrong.
2. There is a constant between cyclone intensities and earthquake magnitudes.
3. Severe tornado spells often replace expected earthquakes.

Large enough tropical storms and great enough magnitude earthquakes and extensive enough tornado cells can and will upset the routine of the time of the lunar phase.

This then, makes using the time of the phase as a means of forecasting the weather useless. But god has been kind to us. There is a clear signal available on the North Atlantic chart that indicates when things are about to go pear shaped.

It's called the Greenland High:

Advertisements

9 thoughts on “New Moon @ 15:54. Weather for the 17th to the 24th August 2012

  1. Reposted from the wrong thread:The settings on this thread should be 10 comments per page.If I can't get that setting right, what chance do I have of sorting out the ocean cycles?Ah well at least we can see there ARE such things:You could see the difference was deeper than the placement of highs and lows, right?And that we thus ended up with:Right?Anyway, Gordon flashed up to a Cat 1 after all. AND the one in the Philippines (Tembin) is going to grow directly into a Cat 2 from a TS.Well that's about it.This lot are all part of the matrix:2012/08/185.9 M. @ 17:45. TONGA5.9 M. @ 15:31. HALMAHERA, INDONESIA5.3 M. @ 10:23. VANUATU REGION6.3 M. @ 09:41. SULAWESI, INDONESIAYou CAN see the connection here?Yes?Good.Since you have been paying such close attention, you will appreciate the coming sequence?In advance?

  2. 2012/08/196.2 M. @ 22:41. NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.Nothing about any Tongan quakes at the time of writing.The typhoon in the China Sea is scaling up magnificently to a Cat 4 from a Cat 2:The North Atlantic looks to end the present cyclone with a thunderstorm. The last time it did that there were some large earthquakes in Iran and one very large one in Kamtchtka IIRC.That's on Sunday:Saturday is as interesting.A large low pressure area sits off the 90 W to 180 quadrant.This is another Cat 4 or even a Cat 5.Subsequent earthquakes show up as above at about 40 E (is it?) on the first Antarctic chart above.

  3. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Subsequent earthquakes show up as above at about 40 E (is it?) on the first Antarctic chart above.

    20 E. Sorry.

  4. The connection was reset The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading. The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments. If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer's network connection. If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.This seems to be the work-around Opera has settled on to stop these DDoSs.I am not an happy chappy.

  5. Odd that this:2012/08/22 5.2 M. @ 10:14. 19.9 South. 173.6 West @ TONGA was the first in that region since:2012/08/196.2 M. @ 22:42. 4.9 South. 144.6 East. NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.I wonder why it was so long after.Plenty of powerful tropical stuff in the mix too.There should have been more large earthquakes. Though there were plenty of large multiples.The Antarctic charts are showing some very interesting systemics. We have had this once with the stuff I have either online or in my hard drive(s) somewhere.I can't remember what occurred following the series though.

  6. A Fiji quake on the 23rd means yet more activity. There were 4 storms active in the tropics, two of them in the China Seas at Cat 3. After Friday, things flatten out in Antarctica with nothing darkening the BOM chart until late on Monday. Then it's all on the Antarctic Peninsula according to forecasts.Of course the spell ends today (24 August) so everything written "in forecast" will be blown to the four winds by the next spell.It is going to interesting though.I wish I had more time to put yesterday's BOM chart in animation. The Opera album holding the files is all mangled up.Thanks Opera.So I am not going to link to it.If you are that interested, you'd be looking at it yourself, anyway!I'm going to stop grabbing the US Pacific and Atlantic charts as they seem to mess up the Opera servers -or maybe the fault lies with my ISP. Whatever the case, poor connection messages between me and my posts are biting my backside. And I have had enough:The connection was reset The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading. The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments. If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer's network connection. If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.

  7. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    The connection was <Insert lots of white space> reset <Insert yet more white space here. No one will notice because it is just a temporary blip on the Opera servers that will get better with a little bit of patience and we can all laugh about it one day….> The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading. <White space courtesy of Weatherlawyer.> The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few <…?> moments. <.> If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer's network <..> connection. ? If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure <.> that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.

    I like that bit about if you have a firewall.One of us thinks the other one is really silly for thinking the other one of us is that stupid.I wouldn't just be having a bad time on MyOpera if I didn't have a firewall.I don't know!Time for beddie byes.Night night children.

  8. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    And I have had enough:The connection was reset The connection to the server was reset while the page was loading. The site could be temporarily unavailable or too busy. Try again in a few moments. If you are unable to load any pages, check your computer's network connection. If your computer or network is protected by a firewall or proxy, make sure that Firefox is permitted to access the Web.

    I just don't have the time or the patience to keep putting up with this. It's ever second time I click "Post comment". (And that's on a good day.)So I write a comment, post it back space and post it again. What kind of a work around is that 2 offer page users in the 21st century.In 80 years time all that will be left of me is my posts on the Way Back When machine. And half the returns on that are going to show members of the 22nd century what a dark age it was now.

  9. Wrong spell I know but I haven't opened the latest one yet. I'll do so later.Originally posted by Reed Trimmer:

    TVN chasing Hurricane Isaac! Field Update #1 Current models are coming into agreement with Hurricane Isaac making landfall as a potentially powerful cat 2 or even cat 3 hurricane late Tuesday in the FL Panhandle just east of Mobile Bay, AL. The latest National Hurricane Center is showing Isaac strengthening as it approaches Haiti, and could easily become a hurricane overnight tonight before making landfall there. It will be a really and scenario down there.. and the last thing Haiti needs is another natural disaster. The Dominator Team will be surging south early Sunday morning for intercept of Hurricane Isaac for a late Tuesday landfall in the Florida Panhandle, likely very close the Panama City Beach, FL.Follow my tweets at http://twitter.com/reedtimmertvn

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s