24 August 2012. 1st Quarter @ 13:54.

We are looking at some sort of a long run here:
17 August 2012. 15:55:38
24 August 2012. 13:54:39
31 August 2012. 13:59:12
And even:

8 September 2012.13:16:11
16 September 2012. 02:11:46

(Well; nearly.)


I ALWAYS have trouble forecasting the weather when the phase of the moon is so near the thunder point.

The reason is that the fronts induced by such an harmonic is very unstable. Maybe it makes for stable North Pacific weather?

After all these years I have never really checked.
Am I stupid or what?

There is nothing remotely similar with the firat two phases on that list.
Except that…

15:55 is to 16 as
13:54 is to 14.

And they are both an hour away from 3 o'clock.

An hour astronomically is about the distance covered by any significant portion of a weather spell. For example it is about as wide as an hurricane at full throttle. Or the distance from the continental shelves of the North Atlantic from the Mid Atlantic Ridge.

That sort of thing. It's not exact but it is in the same league.
All we need to do is adjust the escapement mechanism.

Sometimes it will do that all on its own. After a spate of floods or a drought or something or maybe before a severe earthquake.

Here is what the last spell looked like this far into that one:

And here is where we are at the time of writing:


7 thoughts on “24 August 2012. 1st Quarter @ 13:54.

  1. A massive Antarctic High is back, temporarily, with the beginning of this spell. It lasts until Thursday on the forecast. Then it starts to look like the beginning of the last spell again.It might not happen.The incidents of largish earthquakes is low (a 5.8 in Japan, so not THAT low) and there haven't been any multiple adjacent quakes as far as I know.I think this is a very stable situation. One well worth following and remembering the results.(I wish!)

  2. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Thecounterpoint is a 930 mb Low off the opposite side of the disc.

    930 millibars and I missed a 7.5?A dartboard the size of the continent and I missed it?Somebody hit me.

  3. 7.3 2012/08/27 04:37:20 12.2 -88.5 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOROriginally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I think this is a very stable situation. One well worth following and remembering the results.(I wish!)

    I wish I had seen that coming:http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/4aa584b09728be2a#And:http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/0d77af093590e41a#But I should have smelt a rat with this:http://groups.google.com/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/e3910a8d330e880c#Originally posted by Idiot:

    On Aug 26, 10:23 pm, MCC <mcc11…@gmx.co.uk> wrote:> Norman wrote:> > I had a walk around the reservoirs in the Upper Derwent Valley today. The> > Howden and Ladybower reservoirs are full (the Howden is spilling over the dam> > wall) and the Derwent is about 1 metre below being full. In many years of> > visiting this area I don't recall ever having seen the reservoirs full at this> > time of year, before now.> Our reservoir here in Cornwall is very much the same.> This graphic will show how full it is and compare it with last year and the> "drought year" of 1995.http://www.southwestwater.co.uk/media/libraryimage/b/6/Stithians.jpg> We've got more water now than we had all winter!The anticyclone in Antarctica has just been restored for the firsttime since I have been watching that chart.It appeared yesterday but was slated to disappear at the end of themodel run.Today's… That is the chart I looked at on Sunday… is showing thatit remains in place as far as the models go.I believe it is still up…Yes: >http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-p…Not so high as it was earlier but as of 18:00 dominant. Thecounterpoint is a 930 mb Low off the opposite side of the disc.***Whilst I am on my hobby horse, take a look at the precipitationentering the system off South Africa. It seems to impart a rotation tothe elongation off the coast there.Something I imagine is ascribed to Coriolis "Effect" at lowerlatitudes?(I never really got my head around that one. Too silly to bother me.)Something similar happened a few days ago with precipitation from thesame source and went a lot further around the globe before that swarmoff western north America.I wonder how far 50 south and 110 east is from San Diego?Someone did tell me how to work it out but being me, I forgot.

    Now I have to try it with "12.3 N. 88.5 W. OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR" too. And it isn't going to be anything like the same distance.(But it must be on the same line.)

  4. 31st August full moon @ 13:588th September last quarter @ 13:15http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.htmlNot quite the same time giving not quite an 8 day long spell.The 7.6 Magnitude quake occurred an hour before the phase (2012/08/31 @ 12:47) so it belongs in the last spell. Doesn't it?There have been about 44 large quakes in the Philippines since then. And we have another 4 days to go. That makes 88 in this spell I imagine.Since most of them are couples and triple they are a sign of hurricane decay so there is not going to be so much activity especially since as of today (4th September 2012, there are no hurricanes.)But it has been an interesting ride.

  5. Hmmm… I though I had missed this one. Not that it would have done any good:2012/08/31 @ 12:477.6 M. (Friday) 10.8 N. 126.7 E. PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION

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