Moron Apophenia

(I've seen this before.) …

From a thread on sci.geo.earthquakes:

On Sep 6, 2:57 am, Skywise <i…@oblivion.nothing.com> wrote:
> "moonlightin" <moonlight…@overthemoon.com> wrote innews:jxO1s.456008$Re2.246591@fx06.am4:
>
> >As you see I know nothing about the science but am just interested. I
> >look at the map from http://www2.demis.nl/quakes/ and sometimes there
> >seem to be patterns.
>
> The problem with "seem to be patterns" is that the human brain
> is wired for seeing patterns. So much so that it tends to see
> patterns where there are none. Think of optical illusions.
>
> This is called apophenia, and is a contributing factor in many
> a quack 'theory'.
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia
>
> What makes it such a problem in seismic circles is that quakes
> simply don't happen often enough, and that we have such a short
> historical record of them, that it's hard to say what patterns
> there may be or not.
>
> However, science (much to Weatherlawyer's chagrin) does offer
> tools to help determine if there is a pattern or not. This is
> simple statistical analysis. But still, due to a shortage of
> data, it can be hard to see if there is anything.
>
> Specific to your question:
> No. There is no reason to suspect
> that a quake in the Philippines and one in Central America
> are related in any meaningful way.
>
> Perhaps to help you understand, I will ask you, "why should
> they be related?"

I have just received an email from NASA informing me that there will be a TV interview about Mars at 6pm today.

The thought struck me that because the USA was at war with several countries and losing a big one at the same time as it's first generation was a exploring the moon, it was not sharing the event with mankind the way Neil Armstrong announced it.

The inevitable result was that all those trained experts whose training cost millions and whose plant was irreplaceable went to waste as the effort lost kudos.

Maybe I am a fool for seeing a pattern with that?

This research endeavour to Mars is now looking for patterns to show that there are microbial life forms on Mars. Or to indicate there isn't. (When you can't see something, you don't know it isn't there. (For what it's worth, that is another pattern.))

I am not chagrined that science is totally against people with apophenia. If I have it in spades I consider it a gift. I watch the skies for patterns -or used to. I used to see patterns all the time. In fact I got pretty good at guessing the weather for my location from those patterns.

Oddly I am not alone in that state of grace. It grew to become an whole branch of science called meteorology.

I used to feel pretty good about that ability until I learned that anyone could do it if he knew what …patterns… to look for.

It is the same with seismology. Or at least the best bits, the bits without scientists in them.

There is a chart for the southern hemisphere produced by the Australian Meteorology people "BOM". I have posted plenty of links to it over the last few months due to the fact I have seen patterns in the behaviour of this planet that indicates when large earthquakes are due and patterns that indicate severe storms are due.

The planet is absolutely chocker with patterns and coincidenta including computer problems. (And that's just the stuff that relate to earthquakes and weather.)

Description of of which will be an heinous job for the OP to go through as I have left explanations out of it, for the most part. I don't really feel up to explaining myself. I seldom do but I can be easily inveigled.

One more thing about this hard-wiring business:

> The problem with "seem to be patterns" is that the human brain
> is wired for seeing patterns. So much so that it tends to see
> patterns where there are none.

I take it you believe in evolution?
I don't. It is a science designed by losers for losers with apophenia. But that is me seeing patterns again.

The thing is how do you explain this "problem"

> that the human brain
> is wired for seeing patterns. ?

My view of the matter is an heroic one. One that is mentioned in passing in holy script. Not that the multitude of practitioners were by any means correct for most of the time. The same holy script is dead set against using uncanny powers for divination.

But used with care and rejecting the conclusions that defy logic, they do help unravel the patterns god has used to make us and make us our home.

Thanks for the opportunity to set this matter straight.
It should make a nice little thread for the blog to add to my collection.
(The nice thing about a blog is that you can use evidence supplied by scientists to dispute their conclusions even confound them if they insist on ignorance.)

And here for the record is the sounding salvo:

I can't believe I am alone in seeing a pattern here.
Maybe I am daft?
Or seriously uneducated?
And seeing things.

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12 thoughts on “Moron Apophenia

  1. The comments were by and large a bag of losers excreta but one started my motor up again:Originally posted by Belba Grub:

    Might as well throw in the 7.7 in the Sea of Okhotsk on August 13th.Or is epicenter depth a factor?Is month important?If not, there were those two 8-plus earthquakes off Sumatra in April; the 7.1 in Maule, Chile and the 7.4 in Oaxaca, Mexico in March; the 7.1 in Vanuatu in February; the 7.2 off Northern Sumatra in January.Is there any reason for a cut-off at the year 2012, or at magnitude 7 or greater?And so forth.One of the trickiest problems in science may be what seems simple and obvious at first:"What's the question?"To get the best results, ithas to be carefully stated.Here's my contribution: Can it be disproven, this current assumption/hypothesis of many people that two or more large earthquakes in different places (say, the Philippines and Costa Rica) are not related?Barb

    I particularly liked her quote:“Every individual acts and suffers in accordance with his peculiarteleology, which has all the inevitability of fate, so long as he does not understand it.” — Alfred AdlerGibberish of course but it did get me to look up the term "teleology"Originally posted by Wikipedia:

    Any philosophical account that holds that final causes exist in nature, meaning that design and purpose analogous to that found in human actions are inherent also in the rest of nature.

    My teleology goes that:God blessed mankind and entrusted us with the command:“Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it".So far we have not been fruitful. All we have filled the world with is violence and hate.We have borders and cultural and language differences as well as international communications and invasions of our privacy. People tell us what we can and can't do. Others do what they like to the detriment of all around them. And I am not talking about individual monsters either.But the striking thing is that most industrial nations have a general public who see no first cause. How do you instruct a people like that?Well, you can't. Until they fall off their bicycles, they will not admit to the existence of gravity. And arguing is all you will do.Fools will argue until the cows come home.Wise men will just open the gates and leave them alone.

  2. > Here's my contribution: Can it be disproven, this current assumption/> hypothesis of many people that two or more large earthquakes in> different places (say, the Philippines and Costa Rica) are not> related?Another pattern almost always generated in the Antarctic is thetwinning of these phenomena.And another pattern is that I am still the only person on the planetlooking at them.You'd think that with 6000 miserable years of human history behind it,the most fully informed of the end product, so far, would accomplishmore than calling me names. http://groups.google.com/group/sci.geo.earthquakes/browse_frm/thread/4ca1a1d9b07519cc/ca92fac5adefdefa#ca92fac5adefdefa

  3. I've always had a problem with the lunar phases when they are between 2 and 4 o'clock. The reason is the interaction of tropical storms.3 o'clock is a thunder spell and 2 o'clock is conducive of tornadoes (in Britain, long well defined striated clouds) while 4 o'clock is more likely to produce either volcanic activity or Blocking Highs.These two recent phases were identical:24 August @ 13:54 and 31 August @ 13:58This spell is very similar:8 September @ 13:15 leaving the next spell another difficult one to produce likely tornadic activity:16 September @ 02:11.http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

  4. This spell ends on the weekend. Sunday the 16th September. so all the model runs with whatever they are saying having to accede to this.A long run or parallel isobars such as are to be found in the BOM forecast around the Antarctic at the time of writing:http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+ViewComes AFTER the events of today.The MAJOR event of today was shown to us in that same Australian site as a marked black pressure system between 100 and 120 degrees East.Sanba is moving towards that longitude:15.6 N. 129.5 E. North West Pacific at a Cat 4 (115 knots) moving to:19.1 N. 128.8 E. a Cat 5 at 140 knots.There is no upper wind speed limit to a Cat 5.A tropical storm can only grow so big that the water in the sea takes a direct line to the Tropopause. It can go through the tropopause when there is an upper air anticyclone nar by. But the actual tropical disturbance is governed by the acoustic of the sea surface and the lower sky. 10 miles at most.And the wave is something that reaches between shallows. It can be half a wavelength or a multiple of the distance between the two shallows. But since the sound it makes is a wind scream, it is limited in its maximum potential.Next comes its decay.If there are multiple centres in its development there will be multiple centres and thus fronts in its decay.These will either turn up as consecutive adjacent epicentres or multiple tornadoes. Most likely both.

  5. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Now I have to organise my image collection.

    Several missing charts but still a good collation for the needs at@This is the list that set me off:2.7 M. @ 12:10:27 19.601 -64.207 56.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.8 M. @ 11:30:34 19.189 -64.293 48.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION3.0 M. @ 11:06:58 19.693 -64.257 35.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.5 M. @ 11:06:22 19.248 -64.348 17.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION3.0 M. @ 10:21:46 19.024 -64.349 56.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.6 M. @ 09:48:13 19.254 -64.500 24.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.6 M. @ 07:16:56 19.127 -64.938 57.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.6 M. @ 07:12:10 19.590 -64.019 74.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGION2.9 M. @ 05:46:31 19.540 -64.344 52.0 VIRGIN ISLANDS REGIONThe gaps in the list are all the other quakes from that day. The missing highlights that the consecutive quakes on the list were actually adjacent in real time. In other words, part of the same quake thus worthy of inclusion as one quake at 4 M or larger.But what got to me was that they tend to occur in such swarms according to the patterns of a Weather Analysis chart.They would also appear on a forecast chart if the forecaster was that clear but have to appear on an analysis one as they contain the kitchen sink.Sadly I had to drop them from the following list as they were not felt world wide thus could tip the scales towards the USA on the World List.Not that that many swarms appeared afterwards.

  6. Before you switch off this next boring list, let me tell you what is interesting about it:There are some multiples on it. Have a look at the 11th. Some of them are directly related to data from the NWS site. I'll post some stuff from there but it is a;ready on the album. (The album is far too large, Opera aught to allow us to subdivide them into sections.)But here is the list:2012/09/14 6.3 M. @ 04:51:48 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA5.0 M. @ 03:21:48 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA 2012/09/13 5.4 M. @ 23:40:02 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.9 M. @ 22:41:14 SOLOMON ISLANDS4.8 M. @ 21:16:44 TONGA5.1 M. @ 17:23:47 NORTH OF SEVERNAYA ZEMLYA5.2 M. @ 17:22:09 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.4 M. @ 11:19:07 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION4.7 M. @ 08:17:55 PAKISTAN4.4 M. @ 08:01:43 SOUTHERN IRAN4.0 M. @ 05:58:04 SOUTHERN ALASKA5.4 M. @ 05:54:47 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION4.2 M. @ 05:46:13 GUATEMALA4.5 M. @ 02:42:20 IRAQ5.2 M. @ 01:55:02 FIJI REGION4.7 M. @ 00:22:33 GULF OF PARIA, VENEZUELA 2012/09/12 5.4 M. @ 21:52:17 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN5.1 M. @ 19:29:56 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN4.9 M. @ 14:23:05 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION4.6 M. @ 13:46:08 RAT ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA5.2 M. @ 11:27:51 SOLOMON ISLANDS4.8 M. @ 09:37:29 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.7 M. @ 09:20:54 MENDOZA, ARGENTINA4.6 M. @ 07:18:43 SOUTHWESTERN RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.8 M. @ 06:29:35 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.6 M. @ 05:50:54 KYRGYZSTAN4.5 M. @ 05:23:18 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF COLOMBIA4.2 M. @ 05:00:25 SOUTHERN GREECE5.6 M. @ 04:28:15 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA4.4 M. @ 04:10:52 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA5.5 M. @ 03:27:45 CRETE, GREECE5.0 M. @ 02:57:26 SOUTHWEST INDIAN RIDGE4.6 M. @ 02:13:04 COSTA RICA4.6 M. @ 01:13:26 OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 2012/09/11 4.8 M. @ 22:16:39 KURIL ISLANDS5.0 M. @ 20:52:07 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS4.9 M. @ 19:24:59 SOUTH OF PANAMA5.1 M. @ 18:10:09 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION4.0 M. @ 16:52:56 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA4.2 M. @ 16:42:39 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA5.8 M. @ 16:36:49 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS4.4 M. @ 14:57:54 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA5.3 M. @ 14:21:36 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.8 M. @ 14:08:31 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.5 M. @ 11:12:15 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.8 M. @ 11:09:46 MYANMAR4.7 M. @ 10:15:57 GREENLAND SEA4.8 M. @ 09:56:50 SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN4.7 M. @ 08:28:07 ROTA REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS4.9 M. @ 07:48:47 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.2 M. @ 07:44:58 SERAM, INDONESIA4.6 M. @ 07:24:40 BIO-BIO, CHILE5.1 M. @ 06:35:38 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA4.4 M. @ 04:25:42 TARAPACA, CHILE4.8 M. @ 04:17:04 SUNDA STRAIT, INDONESIA5.0 M. @ 03:21:24 YUNNAN, CHINA4.6 M. @ 03:20:21 YUNNAN, CHINA4.9 M. @ 02:24:13 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.5 M. @ 01:28:19 KURIL ISLANDS 2012/09/10 4.6 M. @ 23:17:34 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.8 M. @ 23:14:31 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA4.2 M. @ 22:03:31 PUERTO RICO REGION4.5 M. @ 22:00:01 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF KAMCHATKA, RUSSIA4.9 M. @ 19:08:46 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA5.2 M. @ 14:35:43 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION4.6 M. @ 14:03:18 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA4.5 M. @ 13:16:25 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION4.8 M. @ 11:31:16 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR5.1 M. @ 11:23:29 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA4.6 M. @ 10:43:55 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION4.1 M. @ 09:08:39 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA4.7 M. @ 07:51:09 BANDA SEA4.9 M. @ 06:19:20 ANDAMAN ISLANDS, INDIA REGION4.7 M. @ 05:41:51 RYUKYU ISLANDS, JAPAN4.6 M. @ 04:32:40 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA4.5 M. @ 02:14:05 TARAPACA, CHILE4.8 M. @ 00:38:26 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA4.8 M. @ 00:04:45 FIJI REGION 2012/09/9 4.3 M. @ 21:37:36 COSTA RICA4.8 M. @ 21:29:51 CATAMARCA, ARGENTINA4.5 M. @ 21:06:11 KEPULAUAN BARAT DAYA, INDONESIA4.2 M. @ 19:30:22 AEGEAN SEA5.3 M. @ 19:23:51 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA4.7 M. @ 18:59:39 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO4.7 M. @ 16:49:21 PAPUA, INDONESIA4.3 M. @ 15:56:57 TARAPACA, CHILE4.1 M. @ 15:21:23 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN5.0 M. @ 14:36:37 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND4.5 M. @ 11:27:28 NEAR NORTH COAST OF NEW GUINEA, P.N.G.4.5 M. @ 11:08:44 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR4.3 M. @ 10:02:08 RED SEA4.2 M. @ 09:50:03 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR4.8 M. @ 09:39:15 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA5.1 M. @ 09:36:40 KURIL ISLANDS4.3 M. @ 07:26:07 SOUTHERN GREECE6.0 M. @ 05:39:36 KURIL ISLANDS5.2 M. @ 05:39:16 KURIL ISLANDS4.7 M. @ 05:14:53 OAXACA, MEXICO4.4 M. @ 03:30:27 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA4.9 M. @ 00:13:50 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION 2012/09/08 4.4 M. @ 21:11:41 NEAR THE COAST OF DJIBOUTI4.8 M. @ 20:55:50 SOUTHEAST OF THE RYUKYU ISLANDS5.6 M. @ 20:29:31 COSTA RICA4.3 M. @ 19:19:50 KAMCHATKA PENINSULA, RUSSIA4.8 M. @ 18:27:13 JAVA, INDONESIA4.9 M. @ 17:45:38 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA4.7 M. @ 16:31:24 PAPUA, INDONESIA5.1 M. @ 16:27:39 MOLUCCA SEA4.7 M. @ 12:35:40 MINAHASA, SULAWESI, INDONESIA4.3 M. @ 12:01:10 COSTA RICA6.1 M. @ 10:51:43 PAPUA, INDONESIA4.1 M. @ 10:01:07 CENTRAL TURKEY4.5 M. @ 09:50:22 COSTA RICA4.6 M. @ 09:22:20 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.6 M. @ 07:36:36 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.3 M. @ 07:35:39 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA4.7 M. @ 07:18:18 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION5.7 M. @ 06:54:19 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION4.6 M. @ 05:09:56 ASCENSION ISLAND REGION5.2 M. @ 04:11:49 SOLOMON ISLANDS4.2 M. @ 03:17:37 TURKMENISTAN4.2 M. @ 02:27:22 OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR4.6 M. @ 01:41:26 SHIKOKU, JAPAN 2012/09/07 4.5 M. @ 21:57:41 JUJUY, ARGENTINA4.9 M. @ 21:11:51 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION4.7 M. @ 19:48:52 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.7 M. @ 19:31:16 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN4.7 M. @ 19:12:24 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR5.0 M. @ 18:44:01 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION4.6 M. @ 17:59:11 KEPULAUAN BABAR, INDONESIA5.4 M. @ 17:41:05 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.7 M. @ 13:57:04 PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION4.1 M. @ 13:23:48 CENTRAL CALIFORNIA5.3 M. @ 12:30:32 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA4.9 M. @ 10:43:08 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES4.5 M. @ 09:41:28 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.6 M. @ 09:27:09 CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC RISE4.3 M. @ 07:52:14 NORTHERN COLOMBIA5.2 M. @ 06:58:59 CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO REGION4.5 M. @ 06:17:28 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN4.4 M. @ 05:46:13 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.7 M. @ 05:21:10 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.8 M. @ 05:12:47 SICHUAN-YUNNAN-GUIZHOU REGION, CHINA

  7. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    2012/09/14

    As stated the list is as long as the spell but the spell has still a few days to go.However with the cyclosis of the larger tropical storms (or maybe the smaller ones) there are no few large magnitude earthquakes due:6.3 M. @ 04:51:48 KEPULAUAN MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIAA 6.3 is small potatoes for a Cat 5 storm. But that ain't over yet despite the rain here.What else is worth noting about the list?Look at the days when there were relatively few quakes:12th = 1811th = 2510th = 199th = 228th = 237th = 20Not only is there an inverse relationship with tropical storms and earthquakes, there is a similar relationship with storms in the USA.But now I have to look at all the charts in that album to find proof. I'm not going to do so. It deserves an album of its own. I may as well allow the spell to end to do it all in one lump.This is plenty for now.

  8. Well that's enough bullshit. Let's look at some pictures:NEIC: Earthquake Search ResultsYear,Month,Day,Time,Lat,Long,Mag,Depth,Catalogue:2012,08,14,025942.02, 49.784, 145.126,7.7,625,PDE-Q2012,08,27,043718.98, 12.092, -88.590,7.3, 28,PDE-Q2012,08,31,124733.36, 10.819, 126.627,7.6, 28,PDE-Q2012,09,05,144207.72, 10.075, -85.309,7.6, 35,PDE-Q9 to 17 August last quarter @ 18:55. 7.7 M. on the 17th August 2012 , 50 N, 145 E. and 625 (?) Km deep.Apogee was on the 10th so that has nothing to do with the thing.Now for the North Atlantic and what didn't happen.First out the gate:24 hours later:See the Anticyclones yet?And again:And on the 13th:But then:Now let's see if you know this one:

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    2012,08,27,043718.98, 12.092, -88.590,7.3, 28,PDE-Q

    That means:7.3 M. on the 27th August 2012 12 degrees North. and 88 degrees West. 28 kilometres deep. That's still a ridiculous depth. 17 miles. Has anyone even been down that far.The previous quake should have been a doddle to forecast. The spell was governed by what should have been wet weather. A low over Britain. That never happened.This one is more awkward. 24th August @ 13:54. That's 4 o'clock. I can't make my mind up about them, I never could. Here are the analysis charts for that:I see no anticyclone:Here too neither:Well there are anticyclones on here but not a 7.3's worth:I am soooo not with this one:And running out of aces:Last chance:Well, that's it:Well, that IS it.I knew it!Damn!So a spell at 4 of the clock is anticyclonic. Normally.Just not when there is a very large earthquake due.I aught to try and remember that pattern. That's my biggest problem:Not enough apo in my phenia.

  10. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    2012,08,31,124733.36, 10.819, 126.627,7.6, 28,PDE-Q

    Also known as: The other earthquake that last spell.Which just leaves:Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    2012,09,05,144207.72, 10.075, -85.309,7.6, 35,PDE-Q

    5 September 2012. A 7.6 M. 10 degrees north; 85 degrees west. 22 miles down. Sounds likely.Not:Hi:High:Height:Higher?Well, maybe not:Actually it was over yesterday but you can see why noapos can't hack it, can't you.Maybe it's a Celtic thing.Or maybe I am touched.But from those that have not, more will be taken because whoever has, to him more shall be given. Something's got to give, eh?The planet is like a garden; plant your seed upon the soil then forget about it. You know the seed will sprout and grow; as for how, we do not know.The earth erupts; first the forecast, then your head comes off, and everything goes wrong.But when you look back you immediately run an aftercast, because there it was… Gone.And you could have been a contender.

  11. I don't wish to give the impression these super-quakes can be easily forecast. I managed to miss every one of them.As far as I know there is no direct relationship with the time of the lunar phase and the phenomena. If there was it would have been found long ago by better men than I.I haven't even used the charts I normally use to poin5t out the connection. The reason is that the charts I did use (to be found here: http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.html) are "full data" charts not "forecast" ones.Hindsight and reanalysis go together very well. But to be any use we have to be able to spot the anomalies from forecast model runs.Sadly in the midst of the above I changed my operating system and was thrown off-key by he way it handles storage. I even let it mess up my MyOpera collection.Making simple mistakes and electronic mishaps goes hand in glove with large quake research too.One of the first rules that I came up with about weather and earthquakes is that when the lunar phase is showing one type of spell is due and the weather charts are showing another, that is the time to be looking for trouble.What comes down the pipe could be one of two things:Bad weather for someone or a large earthquake series.It's not unusual for both to occur either. Especially when a tropical storm occurs.Nobody knows why any of this happens. Just the story of Longitude should teach you that if you want to pry deeper. It took centuries for the greatest minds since Copernicus, including Galileo, Keppler and Newton to come up with the lunar ephemeris.But even now in the glories of the computer age, what causes the moon's orbit to remain so incalculable, is not known. It isn't plotted from maths, rather the motion is interpreted from overly complex maths using corrections that vary daily.The navigational almanacs are prepared an year in advance with some corrections added after printing. But they are not as accurate as the online version here:http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.htmlbecause the latter are updated regularly by a team of very astute mathematicians.What I am trying to say is that there is so much we don't know that most of us assume others DO know; simply because it is their business to know.But we can't even make a regular 5 day weather forecast accurate each time. Because the "variables" about which I am speaking are so imponderable.We are not gods. If we were, then this sort of thing would be easy.But we are not necessarily godless, so this sort of thing can be possible.Until then, I have to tell you that I even managed to forget to download the charts from yesterday. So despite being on the look-out for another large quake I can't say I will be on the ball.I am as vigilant as ever a loser was.Anyway, don't be afraid of having a stab at any of this yourselves. The worst that can happen is that you will get it wrong. I'd like to think I wasn't the only one.A problem shared is a loser multiplied.

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