Three systems in a model run.

Worth watching but too far out for practical weather use. …

I finally figured out how to use Gimp in my latest Ubuntu spin off.
Just in time to point out an interesting development in the Antarctic:

Not sure if that is going to be the correct image so I grabbed it from the source direct:

Anyway whichever…
They show three major systems from the Australian Antarctic model run, taken at 18:00 on Monday the 17th September 2012.

It starts at T+48 with the confluence of mixed fronts rattling loosely bound off the coast at 90 to 160 west. The system has an open core and the isobars extend well into the 'Pole. It than stands off and the feature is more or less dead half way through the animation.

Next look at the way the dartboard centred at 20 east (south of Africa) develops. A dollop of precipitation runs straight into it from Africa and the system takes a symmetry on that looks like a real quake fermenting.

Each one of those isobars is a drop of 4 mb. I counted 15 of them to 1000 mb. that's a core of 60 millibars. 940 at the centre by Friday evening.

Now, leaving aside it is the job of the senior meteorologist in charge of this output to correct it during his shift, it tells us that conditions showing on the evening of Monday night could provide for a bumpy time somewhere on this planet.
That is:
During this spell and probably well before the time the forecast points to.

Next look at the huge spiral between 80 and 140 east (south of Australia) this is as big as any on here (the size of Australia.)

By Thursday noon, T+72, halfway through the animation, the centre touches the continent of Antarctica and flattens out. The main core doesn't deflate but the system becomes three parts. Then on Saturday they are joined with another perpendicular injection of precipitation; this time from Australia.

Saturday night it hits and shatters on the coast at 130 east and disperses. It is followed by an aftershock by the look of it but that goes literally off the charts at the moment.

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14 thoughts on “Three systems in a model run.

  1. My morale is getting back, my wife though in illness, degraded me beyond belief. and even in a short time, and not living with that, has helped immensly

  2. Originally posted by Michael:

    I finally figured out how to use Gimp in my latest Ubuntu spin off.

    Congrats.. I really like Gimp. My last blog design was totally donr using it, that picture manipulation I mean.. Filters label is great.No missing Paint at all. Anymore..

  3. A normal tornado spell should run a Low through two Highs in the North Atlantic. I can't say that I noticed that happening much in 2012.The alternative is plainly showing up though. See if you remember what it is:

  4. The same list more or less compiled of the Atlantic quakes only:20th 4.8 REYKJANES RIDGE4.9 CENTRAL PERU4.3 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR 19th 4.9 CENTRAL TURKEY4.5 ICELAND REGIONThat went off down the Med. then back up again. Maybe another loop?4.1 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR 18th 4.5 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.3 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.2 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.5 OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR4.7 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA 17th 3.1 PUERTO RICO REGIONSay it started with this: 4.6 NORWEGIAN SEAOr maybe it is really apophenia this time.

  5. No significant earthquakes on here:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.phpAny series of quakes is signalled by activity in the Fiji area I have been calling the Fijian Triangle. There are three or four major island groups in the area:Fiji, Tonga and Tuvalu and Vanuatu but the region is the centre of a series of geophysical mounds and trenches, peaks and valleys, that reaches from Africa to South America.They start with a medium magnitude there and tend to end there with a medium magnitude too, something like this:20th 4.8 REYKJANES RIDGE4.9 CENTRAL PERU5.2 FIJI REGION4.7 LOYALTY ISLANDS2.5 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA4.3 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR4.5 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA 19th 4.5 NORTH OF HALMAHERA, INDONESIA4.7 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA4.4 TIMOR REGION4.9 CENTRAL TURKEY4.5 ICELAND REGION4.5 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA4.6 KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND4.1 OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR3.5 KENAI PENINSULA, ALASKA4.7 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA4.7 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA4.5 LOYALTY ISLANDS 18th 4.5 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.7 JAVA, INDONESIA4.7 OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTHERN SUMATRA4.9 LOYALTY ISLANDS4.3 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.2 OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA4.5 OFF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR5.1 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIA4.8 SOUTH OF BALI, INDONESIA4.7 SAN JUAN, ARGENTINA4.8 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION5.2 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA5.1 MOLUCCA SEA5.1 KODIAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA4.4 KURIL ISLANDS 17th 4.3 YUNNAN, CHINA5 VANUATUI left the top ones on as they are where the earthquakes in the Atlantic series start at the mouth of the Arctic ocean and tend to wonder down to the Antarctic region depending on the weather.

  6. It looks like Opera is struggling once again.Pity that as there is a lot to see on this stuff:http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/http://www.volcanolive.com/news.html andhttps://news.google.com/news/search?ned=us&q=volcanic+eruptions&btnG=Search+NewsI never noticed any fronts on the North Atlantic charts that might have alerted me so didn't think to look.After some severe Tropical Storms everything just faded away and I was left thinking that something large would come out in the middle of this spell.Shows you what I know.Anyway there was some activity to make up for things. There were some severe winds/hail on the NWS chart yesterday. First time in a while. Not all that unusual though. And the accompanying (though minor) tremors in the Aleutians.A "fire tornado" on You Tube. (Badly presented snippets from a 40 minute film. I wouldn't pay for, or watch a commercial filled display to see it. The US news companies were the worst offenders though the clip released was crap to start with.)No link but I won't attempt to stop anyone finding it for themselves. I think the problem is that the man who took the film was a professional cameraman and wanted to make money out of it. The problem is that video money makers have the world stitched up.I suppose he is holding out for a bidder worthy of the content. One for the history channel in a few years time. Or I could learn to paint in Gimp.Or just not bother.[/rant]

  7. That huge conurbation at 160 E. to 80 W. that exists at the start of this run is the remains of something I was wondering about earlier. Dark isobars stretch over the pole from those longitudes.I had imagined they would be the start of some tornadic events. No such thing has arrived.They obviously signal something extra-ordinary but exactly what, I don't know. I have seen it previously but have forgotten what I saw.Storms of some sort I think. But they are too rare a treat for mere storms.

  8. Some lore about this one:Black discs are precipitation about to compress onto the shore of an island the size of Australia that is 3 miles high at the edges, almost straight away and so cold to boot that even without the altitude the water would be drained off.And in winter the precipitation has travelled over the same distance of ice as is covered by half the continent. That is meltin now though. It has just started -if the weather permits.The small black discs either bounce off (rare) or become anticyclones. If they bounce off they go the wrong way and then rotate around two or three low centres in a large system that can be as large as the continent. See one in the animation reach from Antarctica to Australia.That is a common set up.Large discs become larger circular dartboards when a storm and a large quake or a quakes series is likely. Or as on here they become asymmetrical when the core splits into three or so centresPrecipitation tends to join the outer edge of stuff going around the continent. It joins the mass of isobars (keeping the pressure status quo) at an obtuse angle. These tend to supply low magnitude quakes as they hit shore (as black discs) some 120 degrees from the continent they came from.Precipitation that runs straight in, joins the disc and empowers it somehow so that the quakes are larger. This is a common signal for rare, very large earthquakes.I am not saying it is cause and effect but more like a rash that appears as a symptom of an illness. It is just wave action on a continental shelf that is active at the same time that other waves on other parts of the planets are making themselves known.IOW, they are a signal we can use to be on guard as and when.I left out some stuff about what I have been calling "clag". This isn't that clear on here -though present.When a long system of parallel isobars surrounds the continent without grounding on it, that generally shows there is a Tropical Storm of some large category in action or due.There are none at the moment but when that black disc hits 140 East at t+90 there could be something following in its wake.The problem is that these are all forecasts. They are not actual data. They are model runs and as such are liable to change by the next data input.Also an earthquake changes things in ways that meteorological offices don't cater for. So the next data input may incorporate drastic changes that only we have foreseen.And we don't have any real idea what is going on or how they change things.

  9. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    When a long system of parallel isobars surrounds the continent without grounding on it, that generally shows there is a Tropical Storm of some large category in action or due.There are none at the moment but when that black disc hits 140 East at t+90 there could be something following in its wake.

    So hard to keep track of what I have just said. I need to have it all on a database.Anyway I found the above bit (mainly because I knew I had written it, not because I knew where to look.)According toTropical Storm Risk's page, the latest depression will build into a Cat 3 typhoon in a few days: http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/120 hours from 18:00 on Thursday 20th September 2012; which is:Tuesday 25th September 2012 at 18:00.A slight difference in the timing but I did say that was unclear, did I not?

  10. There seems to be a lot of activity in Fiji:http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.phpAll quite on all fronts elsewhere.Maybe that's good thing.Maybe the weather is finally changing.Pressures in the North Atlantic are slack; neither very low or very high. All systems seem close to the 1016 millibar threshold.I would call that a negative NAO.Ah…A 970 in the Davis Straight.That's a Blocked Low.The wrong side of the Atlantic for tropical storm activity to be signalled.I don't know what is going on but look at the front in the middle of the North Atlantic:http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/surface_pressure.htmlhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/In the second link an High is caught between two lows both are dropping, I am guessingI think the southerly low is the remains of an hurricane.This could get interesting by Saturday:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_0.gifhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_pac_gale_24.gifhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_0.gifhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/efs/dynamic/US058VMET-GIFwxg.EFS.no_atl_gale_24.gifI should post some charts but am too tired.I'll regret that later.

  11. This might be worth following:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_f000_shbg.gifIt gives more or less the same sort of pressure areas that the BOM page does but also it adds the 5000 meter heights in colour. I don't do much with the upper air. 5000 meters is about a mile high and just about where con trails can start, IIRC.The different "thicknesses" give meteorologists a lot more to go on than they give me. But that is because it is what they start their forecast models running on.this is supposed to be an animation: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_shsm_animation.htmlObviously I can't capture loops like I can ordinary charts.Trying to imagine thicknesses can be disconcerting. Try imagining climbing to a floor that is set at varying heights. It has to be a varied height for you might not be able to breathe properly on that floor.From one stairwell on the ground floor you can reach it in so many steps that are all 984 millimeters high.From another stairwell you have to climb the exact same number of steps but they each rise 1016 millimeters at a time.In yet another stairway the steps are 1030 millimeters apart. And here again you have to climb the same the number of steps.You are at the same pressure level. 500 millibars or whatever it is. No wonder they call it the DAM chart.

  12. North Atlantic forecast from Midnight 22 September:A massive change in the spell. The ridge that was reaching over from the northerly Azores High has hatched and is standing over Britain. Which makes a pleasant change.And makes it very likely that a Japanese quake or two will crop up before the run falls apart -which it does by t+ 36. It drops off the charts at midnight tonight so make the most of it.Tomorrow the storms come. Tropical ones too. By t+96 (from 06:00 22 Sept.) Jelawat will be a Cat 4. Now did I look that up before I made my mind up we'd have one at that strength, or am I shaping my apophenia to suit?http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/You may never know.This is how am saying that I did it:You can believe what you like.(Everyone believes what they like. And they get upset when you point out the bloody obvious.)

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