22 to 30th September 2012.

First quarter @ 19:41. …

Some new charts with this one but I have no idea how useful they are going to be.
19:00 is a wet spell. 19:30 even wetter.
An anticyclone has formed from a spur from out in the Atlantic. It isn't supposed to last very long.

Predictions are for stormy weather this week and I have seen two large spiders. So it is going to be windy here, if they know anything worth knowing.

The black disc on the Antarctic coast, south of Australia (130 E. @ t + 00:60) has morphed into these quakes:

5.4 M. @ 22 12:30:02   OAXACA, MEXICO
4.0 M. @ 22 12:05:28   OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICO
4.7 M. @ 22 11:45:37   PHILIPPINE ISLANDS REGION
4.2 M. @ 22 09:57:52   NICARAGUA
5.2 M. @ 22 09:37:01   SAKHALIN, RUSSIA
5.6 M. @ 22 06:58:26   TONGA
4.9 M. @ 22 06:16:00   GREECE

Though maybe not the Greek one. I rather fancy Tonga as the start of this series.

Monday looks like a repeat. Same time slightly further west but only by a few degrees.

Tuesday at that time (t + 72) another black spot arrives at the shores but on the side south of Africa (at 40 E.)

After that a time of storms begins.


14 thoughts on “22 to 30th September 2012.

  1. Storms in the North Atlantic:From t+48 a Low builds up over Britain. Cyclonic stuff in the sea and over Britain almost always arrives at the same time as large hurricanes and/or typhoons.Before that, between midnight and noon the 22nd Sept 2012, a pair of parallel fronts on it signalled these:5.4 M. @ 22 12:30:02 OAXACA, MEXICO4.0 M. @ 22 12:05:28 OFFSHORE OAXACA, MEXICOIt looks like a front from Iceland along with one from Canada might have met in Mexico: How likely is that?

  2. to date5.2 2012/09/25 05:37:52 -25.144 178.86 SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS5.7 2012/09/25 03:06:52 -15.472 -173.923 TONGA5.2 2012/09/25 01:43:14 -53.252 25.399 SOUTH OF AFRICA24th5.5 2012/09/24 10:31:23 -21.187 -174.211 TONGA5.1 2012/09/24 00:27:58 5.667 126.623 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES23rd5.5 2012/09/23 23:42:28 11.715 143.311 SOUTH OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS5.3 2012/09/23 06:40:53 -16.75 175.543 FIJI REGION22nd5.1 2012/09/22 13:31:04 -6.289 151.101 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.4 2012/09/22 12:30:02 16.54 -98.058 OAXACA, MEXICO5.2 2012/09/22 09:37:01 46.051 141.99 SAKHALIN, RUSSIA5.6 2012/09/22 06:58:26 -20.81 -174.149 TONGA5.1 2012/09/22 03:52:26 38.3 22.812 GREECE21st5.4 2012/09/21 12:17:26 -19.654 -69.149 TARAPACA, CHILE5 2012/09/21 08:47:40 35.3 22.679 CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA20th5.4 2012/09/20 21:21:06 5.978 126.383 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES5.7 2012/09/20 21:03:40 -20.753 -178.373 FIJI REGION5 2012/09/20 15:52:34 2.178 126.83 MOLUCCA SEA5.2 2012/09/20 05:40:20 -20.537 -176.155 FIJI REGION18th n(none for 19th)5.1 2012/09/18 08:05:38 4.481 126.38 KEPULAUAN TALAUD, INDONESIAFiji to Fiji is a complete earthquake series that occurred on the 20th.Fiji to Tonga on the 22nd was another complete series.Tonga to Fiji on the 23rd was the next one.And Fiji to Tonga on the 24th the next.Tonga to the 5.7 Tonga quake today was the next in the series of series in this spell and the next one was the next quake Tonga to Fiji 2 1/2 hours later.

  3. Some patterns of note: The islands around and including Fiji are at the centre of a massive spiral in the above picture.Also it is a centre of a cross section that appears like layers of an onion. The outer skin being Africa's east coast and America's west coast.There follows in from there, on both sides, a series of ocean depths and rises, seas and island chains that present a picture not that dissimilar to the cross section of a mountain. It's a bloody big mountain.And consequently, will have bloody far reaching acoustics.

  4. Interesting that the spiral reaches Antarctica at the Ross Ices Shelf a region that has ice all the way down to the seabed.Double that, as it is a region where the most atmospheric mixing takes place. Or maybe that is why the ice goes so deep there. So much precipitation would form massive glaciers.Such a pity that all the money spent on Antarctic surveys is not managing to fund storage for Antarctic weather charts.Ho hum.T'was ever thus.

  5. Purely as an off topic aside; if you want to know what 500 miles per hour looks like against the backdrop of the planet:http://www.flightradar24.com/Click on any of the aircraft in flight especially any over open sea.The path and its incremental changes along with the information about the aircraft in a box or side panel tell you all about the vehicle.Velocity is given in Knots and in MPH.1 knot is 1/60th of a degree per hour.Air speed is not the same as ground speed which is what is actually measured for aircraft these days. As it always was when navigation was directly related to celestial mechanics given in units referenced from the earth's surface.(It a rather complex subject for this thread.)For the reference, a 'plane doing 500 knots is covering 500 x 60 minutes of arc every hour. Or 500 x 1/60 degrees.

  6. I have been stuggling to find archives of polar weather. You would imagine that multi nationally funded research products to such desperate regions would house weather data wouldn't you?If you didn't know better.Still there is stuff online if you know where to look.And how.In the meantime try these:Believe it or not this is the best I can do.

  7. The scale shown by a colour chart isn't a great deal of use is it. A The Gimp flaw I suspect.What other graphics handlers are there in Linux?There are supposed to be 17 images on that thing -going from an analysis (time = 00:00) to t + 96 hours.

  8. From a usenet post today the:28 September, 4:51 am, "Darren Prescott" wrote:> Here is a summary of the latest NWP output for noon (GMT) on Tuesday. Issued> 0349z, 28/09/12.> > The middle of the week will see low pressure close to or over the UK with> widespread unsettled weather. Rain is likely in most areas, but especially> so in the north and west.> > ECMWF:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif>> The UK lies under SW'lies from a low to the NW. A secondary centre forms> over the North Sea on day 6, leading to westerlies. There are southerlies on> day 7 ahead of a low to the west, followed by westerlies as the low moves> NE'wards on day 8. Day 9 sees a weak ridge and SSW'lies, followed by> southerlies on day 10.> > MetO:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1201.gif>> The MetO run shows a trough over the UK with SW'lies in advance and WSW'lies> following behind. A slack low covers the UK on day 6, resulting in light> winds.> > GFS:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1201.png>> SW'lies cover the UK as the result of a low to the west. The low moves> across Scotland on day 6, leading to northerlies and WNW'lies over the UK.> On day 7 there's a ridge with lighter WNW'lies, followed by a trough and a> mixture of SE'lies and westerlies on day 8. Day 9 sees SW'lies for all as> pressure builds over France. followed by stronger SW'lies from a low to the> NW on day 10.> > GEM:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem1201.gif>> GEM shows SW'lies for all with lows to the north and west.> > JMA:http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rjma1201.gif>> The Japanese run brings southerlies ahead of a low to the west.To which I appended the following:With the exception of the last chart which wouldn't open for me, the runs all look in close agreement. So no major quakes are likely. The North Atlantic runs are showing active tropical storms and quakes, so the quakes obviously intend to be muted probably high fives and occasional low 6s.The southern hemisphere is giving signals of more tropicals -which is also in agreement with Mr Prescott and the charts.Today's North Atlantic shows quite clearly that the storm Jelawat (slated to die as a Cat 2 on the due date) is to be immediately replaced by another equally powerful matrix.Whether or not it remains known as Jelawat remains to be seen.It's the 28th today, spells become wildly unpredictable as they run out -which is tomorrow or the 30th.And with the new spell it is customary for only one storm to be the ascendant (despite others being active in the same or different basins) when they reach super status. (I think. It's just something I am winging but it is relatively easy to check, I shall leave that research to my many fans.)

  9. Teresa cleaned up a set of North Atlantic images for me and sent me a link to them via email. She hasn't posted them on the blog yet so I won't send the link.Anyway that showed me more clearly what I had been looking at the last few days. So I replied to the above…Thus:When considering conditions for snow on the North Atlantic SLPs I look for a cyclone east of an anticyclone.The combined wind stream at contact is the source of the weather to the south hence the: The north winds do blow, And we will have snow" rhyme.So how does the earth's heat budget get sorted by these tropical thingumies?What is the matter with your news reader?And would you like to know what effect tropical storms have on the polar ice sheets?(Because I think I have stumbled onto the answer.)I think that anyone who has been paying attention can now suss it out. That's fair enough, isn't it?

  10. Some stuff from a thread on UK.sci.weather about Typhoon Jelawat:Thread starter:There are three images of Category 4 typhoon Jelawat from this afternoon'smetop-a overpass on my HRPT images page. Typhoon Jelawat is currently near22N 124E, 350km ESE of southern Taiwan, and has a large eye, 45km indiameter.http://www.woksat.info/etcui27/ui27-1301-a-typ-jelawat.html— Bernard BurtonWokingham Berkshire.Weather data and satellite images at:http://www.woksat.info/wwp.html

  11. On Sep 27, 7:09 pm, Adam Lea <lea…@btinternet.com> wrote:> It looks like this is going to be the third strong typhoon to strikeOkinawa this year. I guess they are well adapted to typhoons, but even so, they have had quite a battering this last couple of months. ***> On Thursday, 27 September 2012 21:58:58 UTC+1, I wrote:Presumably the overall temperature around the storm is even for about the same distance in all directions? I take it that such is not the case with northern cyclones, where northern latitudes are colder than southern ones in a relatively small area?To which: On Sep 28, 3:21 pm, Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey. <tudor…@aol.com> replied:Yes, that is the fundamental difference between a tropical hurricane and a mid-latitude low. The hurricane needs a large area of uniform high temperature and little wind shear, whereas the mid-latitude low thrives on almost precisely the opposite.

  12. Well that's the end of this spell.One last kicker is that there appears to be a relationship with Mexican quakes at Oaxaca and tremors generally in Venezuela.I say "generally" because I am not familiar with the regions.It might be a tighter relationship if the tremors are in the same regions.I think it also relates to the weather off Acapulco.A problem with interpreting charts in the region is that Spanish charts use different letters to denote cyclones and anticyclones.In Britain we use H for an anticyclone to denote High Pressure and L for cyclonic stuff to denote Low Pressure.Sometimes whatever region you look at, the pressure is so close to 1016 millibars that it is just a convention rather than anything meaningful about rotation.

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