The Next Big Ones

Using the North America Forecast Ensembles.

There are plenty of likely signals. I am only capable of using the sea level pressure charts. Try these others for yourselves:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html

This chart is labelled 2012111100_72
meaning it was prepared from data available at 00:00 on the 11th Novemeber 2012 and run out to 72 hours on the various computer models that make up the forecasts used in the ensemble.

Here is another one:

This thing is actually called:
2012111100_054_E1_north@america_I_ENSEMBLE_pnm@moy_072.png
I have no intention of guessing what that means.

Both show a line of cyclones running across the top of the chart.
These indicate a large earthquake somewhere on the planet in about 72 hours from midnight last night. (the 11th.)

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26 thoughts on “The Next Big Ones

  1. On the site in the intro you can find 16 days worth of archival stuff. Since we have had a number of interesting quakes recently lets collect a few and see what they tell us.

  2. Well, I'm not much good at these:MAP 4.9 2012/11/11 22:44:33 13.899 -92.121 52.2 OFFSHORE GUATEMALAMAP 4.5 2012/11/11 22:31:33 13.935 -92.452 37.6 OFFSHORE GUATEMALAMAP 4.8 2012/11/11 22:25:47 14.373 -92.687 51.9 OFFSHORE CHIAPAS, MEXICOMAP 6.5 2012/11/11 22:15:00 14.164 -92.167 27.0 OFFSHORE GUATEMALA

  3. Unfortunately these forecasts are prepared by Canada. They like the MetOffice of Britain follow the capitalist model of not giving anything away no matter who has paid for it.I will see what is available from the USA. In comparison they are spend-thift though insular. (They want to be Britain and control the world but (oddly) at a profit.)

  4. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Two of the first charts are….

    Supposed to be an animation. Opera playing up again I presume. It is now in its own album (13 to 20 November 2012 New Moon 20:08) (What else was I going to call it?)Anyway here is another go at it:

  5. I wasn't able to access my own blog with the graphics until I got rid of Firefox extensions just now, hence the delay.Two of the first charts are forecasts from the 13th; added to give an indication of the start. I get confused so easily with these things.Anyway the point is that apart from a blip on the 14th and 15th issued before or early in this spell, there is little showing on the Canadian run that indicates large quakes this spell.However I have no idea if the rest of the northern hemisphere counts nor what is likely to be happening with that.

  6. This "other" Canadian chart shows that a line of extensive Anticyclones straddles the 40 degree latitude from Europe to the Pacific.A tropical storm has shown up off VietNam:11/14/06Z 25 knot tropical depression. Not expected to make storm force until 11/16/12:00 (T+48) and even then only a 35 kt storm.

  7. Issued: 2012 11 14 12_012Valid Midnight 15th.Same as this: 2012 11 14 00_024These are the same charts aren't they?Bloody cheapskates!Everybody knows that earthquakes take the wind out of the weather, so a severe quake in the mix for the the first one (the last one above (don't ask)) will have adjusted the data available for the second chart if it was from an analysis model run 24 later.But even if one was a forecast made from a previous forecast (not even an analysis -which is made from real data) the result should be different shouldn't it?Honestly!Some people!How am I supposed to make predictions with this sort of penny pinching going on? Talking about penny pinching, is there a graphics system out there that will post animations that work straight from my hard drive?

  8. OK so there is a difference. Anyone can make a mistake.It's not as if I am operating the Hadron Collider with four thousand million pounds worth of equipment and staff from some of the world's elite universities at my beck and call.I don't even get to choose the charts I am looking at. Do you think I'd be satisfied with these if I had any choice?

  9. OK so there is a difference. Anyone can make a mistake.It's not as if I am operating the Hadron Collider with four thousand million pounds worth of equipment and staff from some of the world's elite universities at my beck and call.I don't even get to choose the charts I am looking at. Do you think I'd be satisfied with these if I had any choice?

  10. I mean:2012/11/15 09:206.0 M. GUERRERO, MEXICO.Isn't forecasting this sort of thing more important than the Higgs Boson?OK maybe when we know better what we are going to do with infinitely small particles of matter it could very well turn out to be the crown jewels. But until then?????

  11. The latest NA EFS doesn't show anything that I can see as forecasting largish earthquakes on today's run:That doesn't mean there won't be any for a while though.Just that the only person using this technique hasn't seen anything obvious.

  12. So let's play which ones of these:2012/11/165.3 M. @ 08:25 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN5.3 M. @ 06:24 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE5.1 M. @ 00:38 ANTOFAGASTA, CHILE5.6 M. @ 11:22 NEAR ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKAis 80 degrees from this:What's that just under 40 degrees North and about 100 West?

  13. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    The latest NA EFS doesn't show anything that I can see as forecasting largish earthquakes on today's run:

    I give up! 2012/11/16 @ 18:126.4 M. 49.3 N. 155.5 E. KURIL ISLANDS2012/11/17 @ 05:126.1 M. 18.3. S. 172.4 W. TONGA REGIONThey are there, it just takes too much effort to see the damned things.

  14. Number of quakes by year of 6 M. or greater since 1990:1990 61991 91992 111993 81994 71995 121996 181997 121998 111999 16 2000 232001 122002 122003 142004 232005 92006 202007 182008 152009 142010 302011 12Number of earthquakes of 6 M. or greater since 20 October 2012 = 16:6.1 M. 174km ENE of Neiafu, Tonga 11-17 @ 05:126.4 M. 163km SSW of Severo-Kuril, Russia 11-16 @ 08:12 6.0 M. 9km E of Tlalchapa, Mexico 11-15 @ 09:206.1 M. 82km SW of Vallenar, Chile 11-14 @ 19:026.0 M. Off the coast of Aisen, Chile 11-13 @ 04:316.4 M. 248km S of Cape Yakataga, Alaska 11-12 @ 20:426.5 M. 30km WSW of Champerico, Guatemala 11-11 @ 22:156.8 M. 52km NNE of Shwebo, Burma 11-11 @ 01:126.1 M. 186km SSW of Port Hardy, Canada 11-08 @ 02:017.4 M. 36km S of Champerico, Guatemala 11-07 @ 16:356.1 M. 6km ESE of Burgos, Philippines 11-02 @ 18:176.2 M. 210km S of Masset, Canada 10-30 @ 02:486.3 M. 152km SSW of Masset, Canada 10-28 @ 18:547.8 M. 137km S of Masset, Canada 10-28 @ 03:046.5 M. 12km WNW of Nandayure, Costa Rica 10-24 @ 00:456.2 M. 112km WNW of Sola, Vanuatu 10-20 @ 23:00http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

  15. Over in Venusville last night, we had another landslide. No rain, just rocks. Big ones. On a treeless slope. (Yes I know what doesn't that tell you!)And now the miniature tropical storm.Just saying…This looks Cascadian:I am not making any promises. Just premises.Just saying…(Besides I think we need a Fijian quake to start it all off again.)Remember these:19 October 20125.3 M. 30.7 S. 177.7 W.6455.1 M. 21.1 S. 176.5 E.Just before this:20 October 20126.2 M. 13.6 S. 166.6 E. (AKA Fiji region above.)I think what we have here is an example of convergence and divergence. (Not necessarily in that order.)Well, that's what I am working on. No guarantees but I think we are in for a repeat of sorts when the weather gets warmer again.The spell ends on the 20th.

  16. OK back to the future:Anticyclones have a depressing effect on earthquakes. Which is why I love them. Earthquakes have a depressing effect on me.So anyway on here there is an anticyclone. (I know what you are thinking, right?Hooray?)The thing is that there is also a line of Lows. They aren't all that low Lows as far as Lows goes but…At least, I presume it is a line of Lows:Not very big Lows too, neither:Bur!There is also a line of Highs:But first, as it was saying, an anticyclone.Just remember this was TongaOriginally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    6.1 M. 174km ENE of Neiafu, Tonga 11-17 @ 05:12

    Which, oddly enough was immediately followed by:5.0 2012/11/17 05:29:46 -20.252 -178.442 583.8 FIJI REGION(Just saying…)Remember this:Well now we have another one:

  17. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    Just remember this was TongaOriginally posted by Weatherlawyer:6.1 M. 174km ENE of Neiafu, Tonga 11-17 @ 05:12Which, oddly enough was immediately followed by:2012/11/17 5.0 M. @ 05:29 20.3 S. 178.4 W. FIJI REGION

    We seem to have quite a lot running in parallel here.17th November 4.8 M. @ 22:59. -18.7 S. 174.8 W.4.9 M. @ 22:42. -6.4 S. 130.1 E.4.4 M. @ 21:19. 13.7 N. 92.3 W.4.8 M. @ 21:12. -5.9 S. 151.97 E.4.9 M. @ 21:02. -5.9 S. 151.87 E.4.5 M. @ 20:44. 13.8 N. 91.6 W.5.3 M. @ 18:43. -37.0 S. 94.96 W.5.4 M. @ 18:12. -37.1 S. 94.96 W.4.9 M. @ 16:37. 45.3 N. 151.466Or not.

  18. I much prefer to deal with occluded fronts on the North Atlantic charts but beggars can't be choosers.Maybe the parallel fronts are generally not occlusions (those black lines with the mice-like icons running along them) when the quakes are generally milder/associated with anticyclonic weather?I will try to bear this in mind.Pity my mind has a fully functional forgettery associated with it.(Well what is a dose of apophenia worth without a malingering amnesia?I mean, without the latter I could be making the rest of it up. Couldn't I?)

  19. How many days in advance was this forecast I wonder?2012/11/194.6 M. 11:02 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.2 M. 10:55 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.1 M. 10:15. 5.9 S. 151.7 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEANot this one.Not possible.Not likely: How about these: And these: So what of the forecast nobody got? Well, I do the Met Office an injustice here. Though, of course, they'd be looking at 10 years in an Italian prison if anyone got killed.In all fairness they can't be blamed for being silly.Why wasn't I looking?I had this available from about 07:30 give or take a quarter of an hour.(By that I mean there is a good chance I might have been able to capture the images issued fro midnight at something like 07:30 to 07:45.)I was looking for fronts, not pressure centres.Yet on the NA EFS I am looking for pressure centres.Maybe it is when they line up latitudinally that they all come together as one?I am still taking pot shots in the dark.You have to admit the Met Office is very good for focus though, don't you?With such North Atlantic charts.Off on the topic of the 21st and 23rd…There is some discussion of model and equipment failure on uk.sci.weather, today.

  20. It turns out that these were not quite as consecutive as I had supposed.Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    2012/11/194.6 M. 11:02 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.2 M. 10:55 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.1 M. 10:15. 5.9 S. 151.7 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

    19th November 2012 4.8 M. @ 11:51:18 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA3.8 M. @ 11:13:55 ANDREANOF ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN IS., ALASKA2.5 M. @ 11:13:10 SAINT JOHN, U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS4.6 M. @ 11:02:50 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.2 M. @ 10:55:09 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA3.1 M. @ 10:27:17 PUERTO RICO REGION5.1 M. @ 10:15:54 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA2.8 M. @ 10:11:01 PUERTO RICO REGION5 M. @ 10:09:47 SOUTH OF JAVA, INDONESIA5.8 M. @ 09:44:34 NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEAStill.Hell. still nothing.It is going to make such matches harder to find in any data from the past that I hold. I just have to hope that this sort of thing becomes more plain as we go on.

  21. Nothing on the NA EFS looks familiar as markers for a severe earthquake today nor for the 23rd.Is that a bad thing?Short term no, long term yes.Overall?Too bad.

  22. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    How many days in advance was this forecast I wonder?2012/11/194.6 M. 11:02 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.2 M. 10:55 S. 151.6 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA5.1 M. 10:15. 5.9 S. 151.7 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA

    4.8 M. @ 07:05. 5.1 S. 154.4 E. BOUGAINVILLE REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA3.0 M. @ 06:04. 18.8 N. 65.3 W. PUERTO RICO REGION4.2 M. @ 05:13. 16.4 N. 90.9 W. CHIAPAS, MEXICO2.5 M. @ 04:38. 36.3 N. 120.8 W. CENTRAL CALIFORNIA4.5 M. @ 03:58. 1.0 S. 127.3 E. KEPULAUAN OBI, INDONESIA5.0 M. @ 01:18. 5.9 S. 151.7 E. NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEAThree more in the same region matching the multiple Lows in the North Atlantic as the charts showed.Learning more and more without ever striking gold.

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