The next next big ones (20 to 28 November 2012.)

More looking at the BA EFS charts to try and determine if there are ways to use the northern hemisphere charts for predicting quakes while the Antarctic is in flux. …

Nov 20 14:31 Nov 28 14:46
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html

14:31 (the time of the lunar phase called First Quarter) is on 20 November. This should be a tornadic spell but the North Atlantic is out of phase because of a High (anticyclone) over Greenland:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/

You can't really set much store by a weather chart at the end /beginning of a lunar phase. But at least it shows that there is a lot of change in the air.

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17 thoughts on “The next next big ones (20 to 28 November 2012.)

  1. This Is and odd one:5.9 2012/11/21 21:36:22 -34.016 -72.017 15.7 OFFSHORE LIBERTADOR O'HIGGINS, CHILEAccording to the NA EFS there was tro be a large quake on the 21st something in the region of 6 M or greater.Then the forecasts changed with an intruding High (Anticyclone) on the east of the chart.Last night at about 10:30 my time there was the report of a 6.1 from Chile. So I wondered what was to be done apart from looking for better weather charts.Today I see it was marked down as a 5.9.Interesting stuff eh, what?

  2. Here we go then:2012/11/264.8 M. @ 10:19. -23.4 -179.8. SOUTH OF THE FIJI ISLANDS4.5 M. @ 07:58. -20.8 -179.1. FIJI REGION

  3. I am always so amazed at your power to read these charts. I don't have a mathematical mind so they look very complex to me.

  4. I am not capable of adding in a straight line.It isn't maths.I just look at the pictures and match them to events that occur for around the same time.You soon begin to see the patterns.If you look at the Australian Southern Hemisphere charts at the moment:http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+ViewMidnight Friday according to the model run on the above site as of:

    Forecast for 06:00 UTC on Tuesday 4 December 2012

    promises to begin a massive storm.It begins with an injection of precipitate from South America on theevening that spell starts. Which ocean I can't say.What happens, as a rule of thumb, the weather changes climactically every week or so, this coincides with the phase of the moon -give or take a day or so.The present storm Bophar just north of the Equator in the China Sea, is winding down from a Category 5 and is now a category 2, it is forecast to remain at that strength until the day after the next lunar phase.Whether it turns out that the storm will spin up again or peter out remains to be seen. What I can see in the above link is that blue trace.If "whatever it is" is doing that in the Antarctic, it does "so and so" in the tropics. All you have to do is imagine that it is a cup of coffee on a table next to a radio playing loudly.The rest of it is technical and a lot more guess-work. But anyone can do the first bit.

  5. Originally posted by Wendy1953:

    I worked there for 21 years and althought we were forewarned a few times we only ever got hit by the tail.

    I bet it just looks like a bad day in the middle of it. It is only from the satellites we can see how awesome they are.

  6. You're right – it reallu does look like a bad day but sometimes the government would shut down the island. Remove the planes, shut off the electricity, etc… The it would turn a ittle higher towards the windwards and we would be spared.

  7. I used to live and work for an upmarket Hotel resort in |Barbados. I soon learned how to read a satelite picture during huricane season and thought I was pretty acurate. By law we had to keep the guests informed so I would print off some copies of the satelite picture and write a short brief describing the location of the eye, where Barbados was in relation to the projected site of landfall. I would post this info in all the restaurants, bars, lobby and hallways to make sure that everyone saw it. We were equipped as a shelter but the choice was given to the guests to remain at the Hotel or go to the next nearest shelter. As it was – I worked there for 21 years and although we were forewarned a few times we only ever got hit by the tail.

  8. I meant to complete this thread as the events unfolded, instead I have a backlog of charts to post. And a new spell started days ago.Sheesh!

  9. By Afrhill Rances in ManilaTyphoon Bopha – locally known as Pablo – made landfall early morning of 4 December in Baganga, Davao Oriental province, on the east coast of the Philippine island of Mindanao. The category four typhoon, which brought winds of 175kph with gusts of up to 210kph, is currently tracking across provinces in the upper half of Mindanao. 53,000 people are in 94 temporary centres. Electricity supplies have been disrupted in some areas, scores of flights have been grounded and sea vessels confined to port, leaving thousands stranded.The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) is preparing to launch an emergency appeal.The rain coming down from the mountains has caused the rivers to run high and fast. This is when we face a real threat from flash floods and landslides.Since Typhoon Washi, the Philippine Red Cross – with support from the IFRC – has helped over 600 families construct new homes after they were destroyed in the storm.Almost the same areas affected by Tropical Storm Washi in 2011 will be hit again by Typhoon Bopha, but we are more prepared this time,” said Gwendolyn Pang, secretary general of Philippine Red Cross. http://www.ifrc.org/news-and-media/news-stories/asia-pacific/philippines/residents-in-cagayan-de-oro-flee-their-homes-as-typhoon-bopha-makes-landfall-60341/

  10. There hasn't been any closure on the series of quakes showing on either list for a while. Anyone know of a site specifically covering that region the way this does the Mediterranean?> http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?view=1I have the impression something is wrong with the equipment there (or something seriously interesting is about to happen.)What is the name of agency in charge of the seismographs there?Either my computer has fallen over or there is a major outage on the way.

  11. Just no ISP.And I am sort of moving towards geting material prepared for printing.I need the money.But I don't think if I write a book, that it will sell all that well. That's for a variety of reasons.

  12. Well it originally started out as a redress of Richard Inwards' collection of Weatherlore. He was a well travelled engineer who became the director of the Met Office early in the 20th century. He published an ecclectic set of proverbs about the weather, in no particular formula except by content.Stuff about clouds all went into the chapter on clouds. Saints days had their chapter. It was't something designed to provoke discussion about weather forecasting. Just a list in as much of an alphabetical/numerical order as it was possible to arrange it.The MetOffice produced my copy in the 1950's and had done nothing much with the arrangement. I thought I would reassemble them and add my own explanations.If you try to read the various FAQs on weather forums they will leave you for dead as their format is much the same.A weather text book, on the other hand, will go too deeply into the physics and expect you to learn the terminology. And no text book provides practical help the way a beginner might find most useful.I see it as a sort of introduction to the occult practices of Meteorology. The trouble is that most of it will just be my opinion. So I doubt it would be easy to find a publisher. But you never know. Careful research will require hampering it all with too many cross references.If you buy a sailor's Almanack you will get a book offering something of the same sort of thing I am aiming at but aimed at expert seamen as well as weekend amateurs. A basic handbook.***As I was about to post the previous message the library computer timed out and switched off. I thought I had lost that post. I had just a second to hit the send button. I was quite surprised to see it got through.How are you these days?

  13. Originally posted by Weatherlawyer:

    I see it as a sort of introduction to the occult practices of Meteorology. The trouble is that most of it will just be my opinion

    There is no way on the planet anyone is going to accept what I have to say about earthquakes. I will have to wait quietly in my grave before that happens I fear.Pity that; I'd love to see the outcome. I'll have to come back as a ghost and say I tooollllddd yoooou soooo ooooh!

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