New things learned

Time for another rehash. …

I just came across a post on a website called Reddit. The upshot was about different types of education that can leave some people scarred. The fact is that we are all scarred. The British state school system forces you to believe certain things and to react in a certain way. It isn’t as bad as it was with the majority of vicious teachers culled. But it has gone the other way with rampant bullying from children that are literally bastards.

This was my reply:

I went to a good school, a Grammar school in Britain but left without learning much. Later, during a spell of unemployment I started teaching myself geo-physics. I went to the local libraries and concentrated on what I could follow in the Encyclopaedia Britannica, leaving aside stuff that wouldn’t go in and concentating on what would, trying to do it in some sort of order but being inclined to follow up interesting stuff first.

This was just before computers went viral, so I came into that when few of my contemporaries knew much about them. (I took the name Weatherlawyer because Yahoo wouldn’t let me use my own name and I couldn’t find out why (IANAL.))

OK, those are my credentials. I am a Christian, not as devout as I was once but I wish to say that there is every reason to suspect what you have been told about the likely age of creation is wrong. Both versions, probably. I have written several articles on earthquakes and volcanoes on my blog that might interest you.

When I started reading all the stuff I could on the subject, I knew that what little there is in the Bible about creation, had to be spot on, so I rejected (or shelved) stuff that stated catagorically things that were not comprehensible and substantiated. Then I started to realise some of the stuff may be wrong and that I couldn’t understand their logic, not because I was stupid but because I was logically examining stuff I wasn’t being FORCED to accept as gospel.

There are two things I have learned about science and scientists:

1. The best/most inventive/useful… are/were religious.

2. The more you learn about a subject the more difficult it becomes to accept that any of it happened by accident.

I suppose now would be a good time to give you a reason to believe. From time to time I write a resume of new things learned and rehash old points. One of them is about due now as I am just covering forecasting volcanoes. Here is the front page of my blog: http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/

I will go and write a stickie listing the how to forecast earthquakes stuff again. But there are two recent threads already there as stickies for you to examine.

The one on volcanoes was written just as I was finding my feet with them. It didn’t go as well as it might have.

(It could have gone worse.)

 

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5 thoughts on “New things learned

  1. Old things restated.1. Earthquakes occur all the time. They happen in series based about the mascon between Papua New Guinea and the Fijian, Tuvalu and surrounding islands (for want of a better description referred to by me as the Fijian Triangle.)2. Large earthquakes are segregated from small ones by a process similar in nature to convergence and divergence and can be forecast as such from weather charts that show such behaviour.3. Earthquakes smaller than 4M are not considered worth following as they are not so accurately plotted.4. The depths given for earthquakes can not be sound data as there is no way to get down so deep to check any supposition. Plus at the temperatures suspected at those depths and at the pressures likely, it isn't possible for contemporary explanation for earthquakes to be correct.5. At 5 miles water will dissolve quartz or may fail to hold salt in solution. This would depend on whether the water was gas or liquid as much as whether it was organic or ionisable. At 500 degrees C, steam is red hot.6. We either get lots of small earthquakes or very few and then a big one or more likely, we usually get several small ones and some medium sized ones.7. On the Met Office North Atlantic chart, occasions of many quakes, or of converging quakes, can be seen as lots of occluded fronts. These fronts look like cartoon mice running along a line. They are made up of the icons used to denote cold and warm fronts.8. On the US OPC charts the larger earthquakes can be seen to form along the weather fronts of the day given. Earthquakes of any given series tend to spread out along a rhumb line with the larger or largest quakes lying on where the front stops. A rhumb line is a straight line drawn on a circle. It will begin with a quake at the Fijian Triangle and end at PNG.(I may have that the wrong way around but I don't think so.)10. Before a large quake occurs, there will be an unusual warm front passing in the night or early morning in Britain. It is not possible to notice such a phenomenon in the daytime without weather gauges.11. On the BoM chart earthquake signals appear as very dark cyclones striking Antarctica and disappearing into thin air. (Literally. They hit the coast and are lifted half way to the tropopause; where, presumably they become Highs.)12. On other sea level charts the same thing is known as dartboarding. Such charts give isobars and they can be seen to accordion where deep Lows meet large Highs.12.a Lows and Highs don't mix. This is because they are formed by acoustic waves similar to liquids standing near vibrating machinery or loudspeakers.13. The distance to large earthquakes can be judged from the angular distances to the centre of Lows that are dart-boarding. They are probably 90 degrees from where the isobars are compressed on the border of an High. (the central line being the 1016 millibar isobar.) 14. The Canadian NA EFS gives the best warning of earthquakes of large magnitude. (Large is 7M. or over.) They appear as three cyclonic systems in a row across Canada or North America. The OPC chart may also prove useful as earthquakes tend to occur where fronts just peter out. IIRC, they tend not to occur where the fronts end at Low or High centres.15. After a large earthquake the weather changes. So if you see the pattern change usually given with dotted fronts, you may assume that is a signal for such a phenomenon.16. Pairs of adjacent quakes, given consecutively on a list of world wide quakes, indicate the cessation of a tropical storm. Such quakes tend to be medium and small quakes. If larger they are often referred to as aftershocks.There is probably more of this but I tend to forget long lists. Fortunately with My-Opera Communities, I can come back and re-edit them time and again.

  2. I am hooked on the Met Office's North Atlantic chart. I am sure the US OPC one is a much surer bet but why do they only run it for the northern hemisphere and only a part of it at that?Granted the section of the globe it covers is vastly more that the one the British release. I suspect it has something to do with the ability of the composers to get accurate data.The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has no such qualms. Their charts are prepared without any recourse to accurate data from weather stations. They rely instead on satellite imagery. (Something that is still a miracle of modern science.)As such it remarkably useful for the other geo-sciences. It hasn't been "got-at" by people who know better, for one thing. For another the producers have no hesitation in running it out to 162 hours (a week.) This means that the butterfly effect is not touched up. And it is the butterfly effect that gives us such amazingly accurate signals.A butterfly effect is a stupid name given to the maths produced by not working out to the last decimal the algorithms that go into resolving scientific formulae. You end up with a equation error with statistics that can resemble (vaguely) a butterfly. It has nothing to do with wings flapping on tropical heat islands.The BoM Sea Level model run is capable of warning of volcanic activity much more than a week in advance.However for now a simpler chart to follow is the Canadian EFS The signal for volcanic eruptions is the same one as for large magnitude earthquakes: Three large cyclones or "Lows" across the continent. With one striking difference:The signal for a large earthquake will disappear with the next chart. It will disappear in the same model run it appears in. Large VEI eruptions however will continue off and on for a considerable time. <spit> Day After Tomorrow? </spit>Don't make me laugh, my mouth is full of phlegm.

  3. Tornadoes.These are fairly simple to predict but I often get them confused with volcanic activity. This is because the weather charts associated with them show the same weather front for both. My problem is that once they find out what makes their charts go so terribly wrong, they will write better algorithms for them.Fortunately, no one in any Met Office I know of has ever paid much attention to anything I have to say. So the secret is safe with just us knowing it. (Don't go and tell the *******.)Now that Google will allow me to post quite large files wholesale I should post a composite I made of the 2009 tornado charts. It is composed of Alternating Meto North Atlantic and NWS tornado warnings charts. It is extremely fortunates that I picked that year to make as the scope changed for several subsequent years. It all the more fortunate that I had just installed Ubuntu Special Edition 2.3. (For my money, the best Linux distro of them all.)The NWS charts save as the wrong file image. Don't ask.In that OS I could just click on scripts and redit their file extensions. It was brilliant. Then Canonsensical invented Unity. (What a farcical name.)If you intend to ry this at home use the NWS charts with the OPC one. The later chart covers a greater region.What you are looking out for is a Greenland High with another one somewhere off to the south-west. A Low weill leave Newfoundand from points west and travel to the Mid Atlantic ridge perhaps as near as it can in the circumstances to Iceland (for more information about that process see Icelandic Low in all good text books everywhere.)Before it can cross the 'Ridge the cyclone has to lose 5 pounds pressure. Once it crosses over it can get on its way to Norway or wherever it is bound (flaccid once again.) It will leave behind it devastation in the USA and possibly other places too, when is passes between the two Highs.That is all there is to forecasting them. The fronts showing their likelihood to the inattentive resembles a brolly or a jellyfish.Sometimes I give a forecast for a series of earthquakes and it fails to arrive. This is generally because it turned up as a devastating tornadic series of super-cells and I was only looking at the MetO charts. Also the MetO charts are not released until they are out of date by 7 hours.If you are going to take this seriously don't use the British charts. I suspect Margaret Thatcher did this in the days when she was licking Ronnies

  4. What have I missed?I've covered Earthquakes and Tornadoes and made a start with Volcanoes. Tropical Storms:Tropical storms are Heat Islands. They only occur in regions where the air pressure at sea level is about 1016 millibars. If you look at extra-tropical regions you will see that the 1016 millibar line is the one that goes around ALL the intrinsic (that's not the word I am after… cohesive… no… inate?) weather systems. Individual weather systems. (That's the term. Sometimes complex weather systems arise. These are generally composed of a Siamese twin or triplet cyclone. They tend to break up before reaching shore and Blocking Highs often follow them.)You can make a forecast about tropical storms sometimes days in advance of the agencies charged with forecasting them. This is because the agency has to be correct and because they use a different method. They actually spot cyclogenesis forming from satellite imagery. And all I can offer at the moment is a longer range satellite interpretation. from…you guessed it?The BoM charts.They show up as long unbroken parallel lines around Antarctica. They may stretch undeformed for over 180 degrees. Depending on how many isobars are involved there will be so many storms at so much pressure. The only difficulty is that they may include cyclones. This is a further indication of volcanic activity and tends to make things difficult to spot without some experience.When they occur in spells of large Blocking Lows in the southern Hemisphere it makes forecasting both volcanoes AND tropical storms problematic. This is doubly unfortunate as volcanic activity tends to be heightened in periods of flood.That's the downside. The upside may be that where the cyclones are entrained could also be an indicator of where the volcano/tropical storm may be/arise.I should do a list of related phenomena to tropical storms as they are as easy to spot as are signs for large earthquakes. Number one is Jack Frost's portraits written large: Mares' Tails.But this can all wait. I'm browned off and need to be taken out of the oven.

  5. When I saw these charts:​1 October 2013.FSXX00T_00.jpghttps://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0ZGI4aUt6LTJoTEU/edit?usp=drive_web​​1 October 2013.FSXX00T_12.jpg​​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0a1ZtSk5DVG1USUU/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_24.jpg​​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0aWJMMWFtMmFWekE/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_36.jpg​​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0UUJrejdLRGljMTA/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_48.jpg​​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0T182NzFCZXRWM3M/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_60.jpg​​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0YzV5dk5DUVdwY1k/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_72.jpghttps://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0MlZqUFNSQndKMW8/edit?usp=drive_web1 October 2013.FSXX00T_84.jpg​https://docs.google.com/file/d/0BydYci7VpkW0YlVkWlM5V1BtVUk/edit?usp=drive_webI immediately realised that there was a large earthquake looming. But, coupled with what I was experiencing from looking at the NA EFS (still available here: http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html)I saw that the expected event should be a volcanic eruption.I am pretty sure that I posted as much somewhere online -getting the ticket stamped as it were. But can I find the site?

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