The Volcano forecast

From the Met Office for the 20th March 2014.


This is the first chart of the animation shown here:

It is the analysis of all the weather data available before midnight 20 March 2014. Midnight is the start of the working day for Meteorologists. Their charts run at 6 hourly intervals from the start of each day: 00:00; 06:00; 12:00; and 18:00.The following charts are forecasts based on the Analysis and the errors in the forecasts are due to minuscule mathematical discrepancies. (In the 1960 when computing was relatively new, the “butterfly effect”) produced some very large butterflies.

These days the discrepancies are far more likely to be due to earthquakes and volcanic activity. A small amount may also be due to unforeseen storms as it is difficult to predict the behaviour of large vortices. In fact the science of analysing vast regions (they are a synoptic chart one that covers an area of at least 10 degrees (600 nautical miles.))

Such sizes are required to analyse tropical storms but as you can see here the cyclone presented above is literally the size of the North Atlantic. It is a Blocking Low and we always get them whenever there are tropical storms due. Meanwhile the presence of twin centres, along with those two bold, blue, saw-edged lines indicate a demise of another tropical storm (probably Mike. (No relation.))

In fact even as I write there are probably a set of small earthquakes occurring somewhere at end of them (the full length of these fronts go to other systems or end up buried in the earth or sea where there are none (though they will have changed from blue and serrated to red with semicircles along them.) These earthquakes always occur at the end of storms. Though the storm has to be powerful to make them noticeable. What did you expect?


Look at those black walking stick shaped arcs (thunder fronts.) They indicate instability (and actually a point of gravitational balance that can go anyway. Think of them as indicating whatever the cause of the weather and etcetera, the engine is at top and bottom dead centre or the planets are aligned on Lagrangian Points.) Errors in them can be huge, especially on synoptic charts which tend to take liberties with exactitude.


The first forecast chart, from (or for) noon earlier today (t+12 hours.) The parallel fronts have gone and thus the earthquakes have occurred:

2014/03/20 At 02:06 4.7 M South of Java, Indonesia -9.43 107.11
At 01:30 4.6 M South of Java, Indonesia -9.34 107.22

They were obviously not the ones although of course they did appear after the initial chart and there were going to errors in whatever followed. The main group would have been in Papua New Guinea I think, with the magnitudes too  small to make the lists. At 4.7 and 4.6 the ones above only just made it.The black fronts are better defined. And they always run at 90 degrees to the isobars. But the regions can vary so widely with such long isobars. Their perimeter runs off the chart.Image

The Low is quite deep now despite the elongation. The centre is 957 and reaches all the way past Iceland from Norway. The Icelandic Low has never been explained. My pet idea is that there is something in the acoustics of storms that resonates with the features of the channel between Greenland and Norway. It is a parallel mated geography on a globe, not so noticeable on a map.A natural trumpet shape that whistles up a storm from anything that catches the southern tip of Greenland and can ricochet off the peaks of Iceland. Or not, as the case may be.Image

T+36 and the lows centres are on there way through Norway. The volcanic activity continues and the Blocking High creeping up from the Azores is still being held back. At 972 millibars the sympathetic low has gained 20 millibars and is in terminal decline. This always occurs when a storm gets to dry land.Image

T+48. Saturday. The red and blue line of a front running down the coast of Europe reaches into the empty sea off the coast of North America. These are the ones to watch. If a Low leaving North America passes betwenn two substantial High systems in the North Atlantic, tornadoes are almost sure to occur. But the signal passed out by the line down most of Western Europe indicates volcanic activity. So it will be one or the other. (My money is on the other.)I notice Etna or whatever in Italy is home to one of those volcano fronts. That has been happening a lot this year.One more before I post:Image

T+60. This spell should have had anticyclones all over it not one Johnny come lately sneaking in from below. But it has until the 24th to run (Monday) according to NASA: 16 March 17:09. 24 March 01:46. That front has joined up with various other ones and is probably a continuation of the PNG stuff by then.Those Lows off Norway are still holding their own. They should have moved out of the way by now. Evidently global warming is keeping them there. It is amazing what a few atoms of carbon dioxide can do isn’t it. Let’s hear it for Margaret Thatcher the brilliant weather merchant. Fancy being able to sell that to all those clever people at Bracknell. No wonder they were so easily moved.Sheep!


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