The evolution of a tropical storm.

It is possible to forecast the likelihood of a tropical storm well in advance of modern techniques. At present, modern methods concern the behaviour of clouds observed from satellites and as such are mere readings of blown leaves rather than genuine forecasts. (Although of course short term forecasts of that sort are very well developed and extremely accurate.)

What I have noticed from observing the Australian weather charts is in itself a development of forecasting from forecasts. These are applicable to tropical storms that may not develop for a week or more.


Here is an animation from the 10 of March. The genesis of the storm is some four days out  at T+96 (A forecast for Friday the 14 March 2014) this -if it occurred as specified, is excellent forecasting especially on a chart made with so little data.

Bear in mind I am working this from hindsight. Getting a forecast right is a long way from development. Even now I only know it is to become Gillian from hindsight. (There was another Gillian around the 9th and 10th of March but that was off Queensland and in the Pacific.) For the rest of the day you can see that there is a connection between a cyclone in the middle of the Pacific and the remnants of one on the coast of Antarctica approaching Cape Horn.

By day five (t+120) it is over. But look what is happening with the stuff from South America. It has formed a large cyclone of its own. Watch and see how they all meet up south of Africa.


This chart shows the set up for tropical storms. All or most of the isobars on the right of the chart form parallel lines around Antarctica. In fact there are many places where they are formed on this run. Pay attention to the blue precipitate along the bottom of the picture. The parallel lines are the remains of a deep low that appeared at the top of the chart in the middle where there is now a cyclone (40 degrees south, 90 east.)

At t+18 we can see that Cape Horn is holding on to that cyclone from three days ago. The one on the other side has been buried in the reaction to the tropical storm. The next day it has broken through. By noon it has disappeared and the first cyclone has reappeared (t+36.) In disappearing the second cyclone had elongated to join the first one.

Yet more South American precipitate finds its way to the first Low in t+54; at the same time the mid Pacific cyclone has fed another one off Cape Horn. All these cyclones are about the same size which in the Antarctic Sea is usually some 20 degrees (1200 nautical miles) but the components of a system can increase the diameter exponentially.

You can tell by the elongation of the cyclone being fed by South America that there are three major components in that system. As often as not, they part from each other and take off around Antarctica at different speeds and at different distances from the continent. But it is the track of the dominant one (969 millibars at 75 South 30 West) that usually controls cyclo-genesis. In this case the water being fed to the system serves to compress another centre (on the coast of Uruguay (Montivideo/Buenos Airies) that supplies the control.)

Cyclones harbour naturally in large bays something that may be due to acoustics. For example the Weddell Sea is the same size as the Gulf of Mexico but isn’t fed by, air yet it houses a semi-permanent Low. The cyclone nestled there in this run is swept out by the new one by t+96. Considerable compression takes place as the mass of isobars darkens. This is usually a signal for increased earthquakes activity or if the cyclone stays off-shore tornado cells in the USA or sometimes other parts of the world.

Tornado activity is closely related to tropical storms in the North Atlantic, the times of their seasons combining to give a chronology similar to tropical storm seasons in other northern hemisphere oceans. (April to November.) The genesis of tornadoes however, follows a different pattern -similar to that of earthquakes.
By t+114 (Monday 17 March nearly 5 days into the prophesy) the system runs out of steam quite literally. It has got as far as Africa but the cyclone that had been fed by the Pacific has now crossed Cape Horn and left South America and is drinking all the rain leaving there; exhausting the earlier system and stalling it. Cyclosis is shown there as the isobars separate.

By t+120 though, the hose is turned off in South America and the first system regenerates by taking from the newer system. The elongation covers most of the South Atlantic but as little energy. The system could die (cyclosis) or rebuild (cyclogenesis) it all depends on the weather in South America. T+126 and the hose is turned back on but the spacing of the cyclones induces its own acoustics or gyroscopic lien now and the water feeds directly to the low south of Africa as well as the one in between.

By the endo f the run the system has elongated into the Indian Ocean but is still being fed by South America. But 162 hours is an incredible amount of time for such speculation to be useful especially speculation based solely on computed satellite data.


As you can see, the animation has not changed all that much from that of three days ago. The major system we were watching in that has now become an huge triangle stretching from the Weddell Sea to Africa and out well into the Indian Ocean past a cyclone that has been fed from rains in Africa as far as 80 degrees east by t+66. This system is incontrovertible evidence of a large tropical storm evolving.

Elongation continues and although the system is further fed from Africa it dissolves. The water from Africa drives in perpendicularly, a sure sign of a large earthquake due. When the isobars pale that indicates that the severe shock is over. When the dark mass dissipates on the coast of Antarctica the result or coincidenta (whatever the truth not yet determined) will be an earthquake of large magnitude.

When the dark mass dissipates off shore the signal is one of tornadoes or volcanic eruption. But volcanicity of the planet is signalled by a major league storm, the whole planet will have stormy weather and many reports will be broadcast about rain type disasters and damage.

T+114, the elongation has reached half way around the planet (60 degrees East to 120 degrees West) but it is not nicely formed and won’t be a storm of long duration. Why this should be so I can not say. For a large category storm to form the isobars in this band must run straight and parallel. However, I have noticed that before a severe storm occurs a lesser one grows and fades. This happens quickly, in this case I think it was Mike.

T+132 the isobars have smoothed out and now reach all the way from 60 east to Cape Horn. Without knowing why this happens or understanding the physics involved, it will be impossible to forecast where the storm will occur. But we DO know one will occur. Also at the same time a portion of the original system has broken off (actually a few portions.) Such systems are made up of many fronts, each one sufficient unto itself. They hang together only in the way that ocean waves join together, for only so long as they are going the same way at the same time.

(Again, I don’t know why. I doubt it has as much to do with harmonics as it does with astrology but I know nothing of that art or ancient science. Perhaps one day god will reveal it to us. Whoever gets to find that out will be the chief of the magic practising priests.)

We know where the fronts come from they build up from the passage of the sun and moon but their initial impression is too faint to be taken seriously. But we are not gods and can’t measure the effect in any other way but in the use of statistics. Their direct effect when the sonic conditions permit are likely to vast.

It seems to me that the portions of a large system that break away and run around the coast of Antarctica before the occurrence of a major volcanic upheaval are very much a condition of the sun and moon or some other exterior power source. (This author believes such a power source combined, is sufficient to ignite the outer atmosphere of the sun. I believe it is more likely that this is the source of every star’s heat, rather than the idea the centre of a sun is a ball of fusion. There is not enough gravity at the centre of gravity to do what the present set of cosmologists insist.)

The band of isobars persists through the end of the run without losing much of its definition. By now of course Gillian is up and running and I know it is forecast to be a major typhoon. But the advice is worth remembering for it happens this way for each new storm system, search and see or wait and see.


T+78 the band now reaches from 80 East to Greenwich Meridian with compression in the South Atlantic from an huge influx of water from South America. The original flow is emanating from Madagascar, so it seems this band is set up by a conjoined pair of warm pool outflows.

T+90 the band appears to circle the globe. I know from experience this will not actually occur but the intention is clear that it would if it could. The set up is not common and the only time I remember what happened following one, the storm was powerful but not long lasting.

It persists well into the run but by t+126 it all starts to go pear shaped. Of course the model is not designed to deal with earthquakes and the like but even so they don’t seem to have taken much out of the system up to now. There was a magnitude 7 given a few days ago but it was corrected by marking it down as a 6.7 M. A Mag 7 would upset all of the charts but a 6.7 would have a noticeably smaller effect. None the less a series of quakes in the magnitude 6  to 7 range has taken some of the steam out of things. Not shown here of course. Besides the so called Mag 7 occurred on the 16th just before all this took place:

T+132 (25 March 2014) there is a large cyclone on the coast of Antarctica, under Africa, that has well and truly run aground. That is a signal for a large magnitude earthquake taking place. I have no idea when. It is late in the run so who knows how much of the forecast is going to come true?

There is a lot of persistence in the parallel bands right through to the end of the run. Wrapping all that cyclonic activity in parallel bands is a signal of volcanic activity of an high order.

22 March 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006

T+6, the bands of parallel isobars extend from 80 East to 40 west. A similar pair of water supply is seen at each end like bookends. The influx comes at an angle of about 20 degrees of longitude over 40 degrees of latitude. Almost straight enough in to indicate large earthquakes. But nothing else in the picture fits, so we can reject that idea.

The water supply from South America was enormous but it closes off at T+24 there is enough in the system for a latency effect that allows the bands to fully enclose Antarctica by t+66. There is still plenty of water coming in through, from the southern Pacific and Indian Oceans.

It is t+108 (noon Wednesday 26 March) before there is much elongation (160 West.) The lunar phase changed on the 24th:  Mar  1  08:00     Mar  8  13:27     Mar 16  17:09     Mar 24  01:46

For reasons I won’t go into, the weather patterns should be similar to those of the 1st and 8th of March 2014.

It looks very much as though the tropical storms continue but this is very much new territory for me.

There is a lot more to add of course and I am sorry to leave you stranded like this but I am working all alone on this and I get my ideas just like you do: One at a time.

Plus: I have to get used to the old ideas being wrong before I can jump the next hurdle, the same as everybody else.


One thought on “Gillian.

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