The Chilean earthquake of 1 April 2014

I’d been watching events fairly closely over the fortnight or so prior to this event but I was expecting a major volcanic eruption not a classic super-quake.

I post most day to Usenet if I see something striking occur. The idea of Usenet is that it alerts whoever has an interest in whatever forum you post to, that they should be looking for the vultures to find the calf so to speak. I post to uk.sci.weather and more often to sci.geo.earthquakes. (occasionally to uk.d-i-y.)

The reason I post is not as is stated in the following thread (not quoted here) that I like to talk to myself. (I do, it helps me think a problem out. But I AM the only one that listens to me, besides, there is nobody on the planet who is my peer in this.)

The main reason I post to Usenet is that the posts are there for posterity in the same way that people carve things in stone. Yes; all mankind decays as we move on but it is nice to think I offered an helping hand in the right direction as and when I could. Anyway here are my thoughts on the quake:

 2014/04/02 8.0 Mw -19.63 -70.86 Off coast of northern Chile at 23:46:45
 2014/04/02 5.5 Mb -20.25 -70.69 Near coast of northern Chile at 00:33:45
 2014/04/02 5.6 Mb -19.91 -70.73 Near coast of northern Chile 00:24:45
2014/04/02 5.8 Mb -19.85 -70.87 Near coast of northern Chile at 00:03:12
2014/04/01 6.2 Mb -19.43 -70.26 Near coast of northern Chile at 23:58:00
2014/04/01 5.7 Mb -19.62 -70.76 Near coast of northern Chile at 23:56:47
2014/04/01 7.5 Mwp -10.78 -71.72 Peru-Brazil Border Region at 23:48:14
2014/04/01 8.2 M -19.64 -70.82 Near coast of northern Ch at 23:46:46
This was from SED earthquakes list shortly after the event. The first line is an error. I believe they placed it at the top of their page as a sticky. First reports always contain data that is changed as more stations report in.
I posted the best news available at the time (fairly soon after the event) here:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/us-chile-earthquake-idUSBREA3101G20140402

From a couple of posts on 28 February 2014 exactly a month before the signal for the Chilean quake:

And this is taken from some of the posts I made, both a month prior to and subsequently a few hours after the quake. This one was to a thread posted to mark the memorial of the Great Alaskan Earthquake:

“My major quarrel with the idea of Subduction and Obduction and the whole of plate theory is something Belba Grub thought of:
You can’t have rocks at depth straining over millennia.

(The woman no longer posts but she was a frequent visitor to sci.geo.earthquakes.)

If at depth there is a pool of rock solution whirling around, maybe for weeks at a time and something occurs to cause it to change -it would only have to be a small shift in temperature or pressure, then the whole system is radicalised. And it all stops instantly.

Not in minutes but moments.
That “instant-off” would be the cause of the explosive shaking effect… “

And from March 8th:

“…This spiral (The Alaska Low) incorporates both the Alaska Range and the Brooks.
I imagine something apocalyptic would happen to the aquifer beneath were a Blocking High to replace the Low pattern.

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/sci.geo.earthquakes/x7m4l19uUFo

Now take a look at the Analysis Data of the Sea surface for the North Pacific on the US OPC charts:
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/

I’ll post them on my blog in a day or so. But the OPC offer a 14 day loop, so they will be online for the next 10 days or so. (I tried to make a couple of animations in Gimp but the colour quality was dreadful and very distracting.) I will place them as single charts and comment on each one individually.

It’s fairly obvious though. The problem was that the charts whiz along unless you are careful. I was just too distracted to spot it (not that I would have thought it was an earthquake but that it was a major volcanic eruption.)

I did actually see the Australian charts indicating it the day before but I paid scant attention as they usually give you plenty of time (and since I was expecting a major volcanic eruption, I “knew” it had to develop a severe tropical storm for that.)

I’ll post that too on my blog in a few days. But you already know that a major earthquake in the super-quake league can’t occur with a tropical storm playing and there was one on the boil at the time -slated to become a category 4 (and with it a magnificent eruption, I had no doubt.)

***

Well now for the longer explanation.

I had just started collecting the OPC charts for the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Their North Atlantic often gives a better warning of impending tornadoes than the British Meteorological And Climategate Office because it covers lower latitudes. And while I was thinking of tornadoes, it occurred to me to study the Aleutian Low while I was at it. I was far too busy getting into the routine though, to pay it close attention.

I had, by the time the OP posted the thread about the Alaska Quake, noticed that from time to time the run of cyclones at the Bay of Alaska go retrograde as they are doing this week in the North Atlantic (if you care to look.)

And about a month before all this, I had come across videos on-line about Professor Eric Laithwaite who worked on electrical systems and gyroscopes . I had decided as soon as I saw one of his videos that what he was demonstrating explained the peculiar effect of rotating vortices that we or not me but most people in the know, call Coriolis Effect. There was something about the so called Coriolis Effect that just went against my grain. It was too difficult for me to accept it.

The behaviour of mass in gyroscopes on the other hand seemed to complete all that was missing in what I was piecing together with the relationships between earthquakes, volcanoes, tornadoes and cyclones.

Here is the contra rotating system off the coast of North America. Watch the Low (the red L) in the bottom left hand side of the charts as it flows gently east north east:

”Image”

This first run shows the situation in the North Pacific between the 18 and the 24 of February 2014. Note the Low “L” that appears about 8 to 10 charts into the run. The North Pacific fills with a sympathetic system reflecting the cyclone Guito:

TIME knots LAT LON
02/18/12Z 35 TS -18.30 40.30
02/19/00Z 45 TS -19.40 39.90
02/19/12Z 60 TS -21.00 39.70
02/19/18Z 65 CYCLONE-1 -21.90 39.30
02/20/06Z 65 CYCLONE-1 -24.60 38.60
02/20/18Z 65 CYCLONE-1 -27.40 38.30
02/21/06Z 60 TS -29.90 38.80
02/21/18Z 45 TS -31.80 40.00
02/22/06Z 35 TS -32.90 41.30

As Guito fades so does the system that has filled the basin here. But why has it faded to the North West?

In the meantime that L has had to go around the block. It ends up off the coast of California but look what happens to it next:

Now watch how the Low develops:

Image

Instead of driving ashore, the cyclone follows the shoreline up to the Arctic. Very odd. There was a severe outbreak of tornadoes on the 20th and 21st. I seem to recollect stories of some volcanic eruptions later in the month. I have no idea about those. Here are the tornadoes:

Image

Image

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