The US Tornado Season 2014

I don’t know how early this year’s season is but here are the charts where tornadoes have been reported.

That a tornado hasn’t appeared here is of no consequence. (Nor for that matter, is the fact that one has been reported if it did not occur.) These are just “reports”. They have not been investigated. And they don’t include anywhere outside the contiguous USA.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html

My interest in them apart form the ease with which they can be forecast is that these things are closely related to volcanic eruptions. The signal for them on the Australian southern hemisphere forecasts are obviously rather vague but with practice you can tell well in advance that either one or the other is going to take place.

I’ll have to show the BoM charts in another post

Before I go any further, a word of warning about your operating system. These images were .png as far as I can tell. Yet when I download them they were called .gif. Having a Linux OS, I can easily convert them (either individually or in batches) by right clicking and opening the tab marked “Actions”.

Windows (as far as I know) doesn’t worry about things like file extensions and allows them to operate as either. But if you are using an animation programme you may run into trouble trying to run sequences of different file types.

The reason I mention it is that later I will produce some animations combining different chart types. I will have converted them all to .gif as that is what Gimp uses for animating. YMMV.

This is what a set of forecast charts looks like when there is a signal for tornadoes in them:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html

This is the situation to watch as it develops; a Low on the bottom of the chart with an umbrella shaped weather front:

 

I am sorry about the picture quality. My first effort and probably my last if I can get a willing slave. (Applications for the vacancy taken in the comments please. Remunerations are extreme. (To say the least.))

So with that “t” shaped situation signalled right through until the penultimate chart, why was there only the one outbreak of tornadoes?

The answer is quite simple.

I don’t know.

In my defence I am not the only one. Look at the third chart (T+36.) It has been corrected. It isn’t customary these days, for the weather to change drastically and catch meteorologists out over such short time periods as this North Atlantic forecast covers.

Now look at the chart T+60 (noon Sunday 12 January 2014.)

A large cyclonic situation has almost filled the North Atlantic. This phenomena occurs every time there is a tropical storm. (The North Pacific reacts in exactly the same way.) I am calling the phenomena “sympathetic cyclones” for want of a more suitable term.

(No doubt the people in charge of nomenclature will consult with the people who ought to know about these things and come up with a better definition. I will be dead by then and past caring. Not that I would mind overmuch if they came up with the idea right now. I’d still be on the same money, whatever they get up to.)

The earth is rather prone to increased volcanic activity whenever there are such sympathetic systems and seismic events tend to confound all meteorologists -including yours truly. So let’s see if we can find any traces of a fairly active volcano now that the Smithsonian volcano archive is unsearchable:

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/volcano-activity/news/41449/Volcanic-activity-worldwide-15-Jan-2014-Sinabung-Santa-Mara-Santiaguito-Fuego-Nishino-shima.html

Best I can do. Help yourself; armed with a likely suspect you can use the Smithsonian archives if you wish.

There are always volcanoes erupting, so why are there not always such signals?

Again the answer is simple:

I don’t know.

But what is evident is that the presence of those black fronts (arcs crossing the isobars at 90 degrees chart T+24 has a good example  of them) indicate volcanic eruptions. The problem  is that, as with tornadoes, if there is nobody to witness them they will go unreported -even though both have distinctive seismic signals.

So that is the state of play at the moment.

Whilst news is in the hands of the people who control the various communications media there will only be reports if they contain blood and gore. It isn’t entirely the fault of capitalism. People would rather hear fairly tales than truth if it contains stories of blood and gore.

It isn’t just journalists that are stupid. People are stupid. And journalists are merely prime examples of this stupidity. Alas, regardless of their doom, the little ******* play! No sense have they of ills to come, they all want ills today.

To bitter scorn a sacrifice and grinning infamy, the stink of falsehood they supply and hard unkindness, eye;

that mocks the tear it forced to flow.

They tender for another’s pain, their feeling all unknown, sorrow never comes too late attracting them, like flies.

Thought would destroy their paradise.They live where ignorance is bliss, (’tis folly to be wise.)

http://www.thomasgray.org.uk/cgi-bin/display.cgi?text=odec

Date:	05-13	JAN	2014
Cyclone-4	IAN
LAT	LON	TIME	WIND
-18.90	-175.50	01/05/18Z	35	TS
-19.00	-175.50	01/06/06Z	35	TS
-18.90	-176.00	01/06/18Z	35	TS
-17.80	-176.10	01/07/06Z	35	TS
-17.00	-176.70	01/07/18Z	45	TS
-16.80	-177.00	01/08/06Z	55	TS
-16.70	-176.80	01/08/18Z	60	TS
-16.80	-176.50	01/09/06Z	85	CYCLONE-2
-17.10	-175.80	01/09/18Z	90	CYCLONE-2
-18.00	-175.10	01/10/06Z	90	CYCLONE-2
-18.90	-174.80	01/10/18Z	120	CYCLONE-4
-20.50	-173.80	01/11/06Z	125	CYCLONE-4
-22.40	-173.20	01/11/18Z	125	CYCLONE-4
-24.50	-172.20	01/12/06Z	115	CYCLONE-4
-26.60	-171.30	01/12/18Z	80	CYCLONE-1
-29.00	-170.30	01/13/06Z	65	CYCLONE-1
-30.50	-168.80	01/13/18Z	50	TS
-30.50	-168.80	01/13/18Z	50	TS
Date:	09-15	JAN	2014
Cyclone-4	COLIN
LAT	LON	TIME	WIND	PR
-11.90	86.30	01/09/18Z	35	TS
-12.50	83.70	01/10/06Z	35	TS
-14.00	82.00	01/10/18Z	45	TS
-16.30	80.40	01/11/06Z	65	CYCLONE-1
-17.10	79.20	01/11/18Z	115	CYCLONE-4
-18.20	78.20	01/12/06Z	115	CYCLONE-4
-20.10	76.80	01/12/18Z	105	CYCLONE-3
-22.50	75.30	01/13/06Z	80	CYCLONE-1
-24.90	73.60	01/13/18Z	60	TS
-26.70	73.30	01/14/06Z	40	TS
-28.80	73.50	01/14/18Z	40	TS
-30.50	75.50	01/15/06Z	40	TS
-31.80	77.70	01/15/12Z	35	TS

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php

 

 

 

Advertisements