I hope I am not wrong

If I am wrong this is going to make me look as stupid as I feel.


The Ross Ice shelf is either side the date line roughly between 160 East and160 West.


y the Admiralty Mountains,
across the shore of the McMurdo
from Erebus the volcano,
on the shining icy water,
stands a cyclone for tomorrow,
brought on by the moon’s first quarter.

Close as death yet on shore yielding,
what is this thing floating flying
like the goose the bird the eider,
yet not a bird alone nor again a flock beside her,
come to lay the eggs of wisdom
in the home of Weatherlawyer.

Here is blackness on the water.
Of tornadoes,
Vulcan’s daughter bringing cyclones
to the slaughter in the houses of America.

In the place that has the weather
with the grace of heaven’s river:




Dark it rose before the ice floes,
rose the black and gloomy cyclone,
rose the first to touch the shoreline;
right before it hit the ice shelf,
as it crossed the planet’s dateline
on the shining southern Arctic,
black as ice that forms in mornings
full of frost in days without sun;
runs across the Ross Ice Shelf
to crash ashore upon the evening
to crash ashore on the peninsular,
to crash upon the Ford Mountains
and to hit the the Flood Ranges,
mount the mountains causing changes
as it darkens till at midnight change is.

As from heaven came the signal to the fool,
the crank magician,
woke him from his bed as lumber with a call
that smote his dreaming.

Rise and take the piss you felon,
failed you have this tale in telling,
no more sleep will you be having
until the final revelation of the cyclone
on the river that in summer remains frozen.



Far away across the planet
lies the busy North Atlantic
where the winds that cross that water
fill with one gigantic system
in sympathy with cyclone Ita
in the tropics are not happening.



For the charts lack this phenomenon,
no sign is there that such a system
has its place on the Atlantic.

What the devil can be happening
as Wednesdays child,
a giant cyclone fills the South Australian Basin
all the way down to Wilkes Land
in the continent white and barren?



blog that I wrote earlier

In the stood a signal undecoded,
the point of which I’d thought of writing
but of course at last neglected,
remained undone the disaffected
lapse of North Atlantic cyclone.

In the charts from far off ‘Stralia,
warning came in January
of spinning cyclone showered a plenty
in particular Ian and Colin,
bracketing the land that showed them
to the world in charts synoptic.



Yet the busy North Atlantic
with all the people therein watching
caused no sign of those winds blowing,
far away to there be showing.

Thus it was in January,
in the first month,
in its middle,
came the answer to this riddle
far way in time God given
remained unseen this sign from heaven.



Thus it was that Weatherlawyer
in his infamy derided,
wrote the doggerel before you
as a sign of his contrition,
as a sign unheeded pointed
to tornadoes to be avoided:





Halfway through an epic masterpiece like the above and it does this to me:


2014/04/11 07:07 6.6 S. 155.1 E. Mag. 7.1 Bougainville – Solomon Is



3 thoughts on “I hope I am not wrong

  1. A few days ago I was looking through the NWS storm reports for the tornadoes in them and collected the year’s worth so far. I looked at the one on the 11th January the first cell of the year and compared the state of the various other charts I have (I keep a selection of forecasts because once they pass their sell by date they are gone.)
    On the North Atlantic charts I should have seen a large system occupying almost the entire ocean. A storm two thousand miles across and more is rather easy to notice. They ALWAYS appear when there is an hurricane force cyclone in any part of the tropics.
    Not then. Not for those two super-cyclones either side of Australia.

    So what was I supposed to think?
    I was wrong?
    Not me!
    I don’t like being wrong.

    I had already made a post earlier in April about a large black mass appearing at the end of a run. The Australian BoM Southern Hemisphere runs cover a week or so in six hour intervals. So I pointed out that there was going to be a development in a week or so.
    Later, I saw that on the (for example) 8th January Australian forecast that for the 11th, when the storms were at their height, the isobars around southern hemisphere lacked the smoothness you would expect with the two massive storms.
    With a severe tropical storm, ordinarily, the isobars are all parallel and equidistant and they tend to follow the contour of the Antarctic coastline. I noticed this phenomena was missing with the 11th April set-up. Remember I had already put a watch out for the period.
    I had never seen anything like it. Were there cyclones present with the tornado outbreak of 11 January?
    Yes two huge ones.
    OK. What did the Australian chart look like.
    And the North Atlantic.

    The ONE obvious difference between the 11ths was that on 11 January the black storm that rolled past the Ross Ice Shelf remained offshore and dissipated OFFSHORE.
    The Mass that hit the continent on the 11th April was a pure black AND it had an injection of rain from higher latitudes directly behind it tow phenomena the signal large magnitude earthquakes. But I had never seen the North Atlantic behave the way it did on both occasions. Plus the sets of charts contained a system of fronts I had come to believe indicated tornadoes.

    I was convinced I was right. Absolutely convinced.

  2. To Everything There is a Season
    To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under heaven:
    A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to sew, and a time to harvest
    A time of death, and a time for repairs; a time to end errors, and a time to make discoveries;
    A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
    A time of massive earthquakes and a time rebuilding; a time refreshment, and a time for study
    A time to get it, and a time to wonder; a time to savour, and a time to forget;
    A time to rend, and a time to link together; a time silence, and a time to advertise
    A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.

    The old spell ended on the 15th. It looks like we have a breathing space.

    Two spells ostensibly the same: 15 April at 07:42 and 22 April at 07:52.

    A time ponder and a time to decimate.

    I forget the dates now but I think it was the year of Hurricane Andrew. I had been looking for similar lunar cycles and I came across one that was similar in many respects, though “opposites”. It is nearly impossible to find similar phases without a computer to run the data sets for you. And I still don’t have any idea how to do that.

    Then in November 1994? there were similarities in the run to one in 1928 or 1932 or some such date a Hurricane hitting Eluthera in the Bahamas. I was having some success at home with weather forecasting from the times of the phases. There was a downpour that caused massive flooding in Llandudno that summer IIRC. It was all fitting together for a spell.

    I never got it like that since: Lake Locarno floods, Vaucluse region of France. And floods in the Bay of Bengal and a whole sequence but not in the same order. Worse in the ‘90’s because technical sophistication made everything so much more expensive. And of course unscrupulous builders thinking they could get away with building in flash flood pans. (Something everyone did and still does in Asia especially Bangladesh.)

    I don’t remember the events clearly but that they were out of sequence to the events in 1928 or whatever the year was. I thought all lunar phases at 1:30 or 2:30 or whatever, would produce those same experiences but of course spells vary in ways we don’t understand.

    All I had to do was match them. It’s what experienced meteorologists do all the time. But getting declinations of the moon to match was more than just tedious. It was impossible.

    Even the fact that it seemed it worked even if the declinations were reversed didn’t help. I had no idea how to do a search online or where to find lunar phases.

    I was copying them all out by hand. And messing some of them up. God knows I’d have given up then and there if I had any idea of the magnitude of the work involved. But I would make guesses that just rang true all the damned time and it kept me going.

    So on I jolly well went. And here we are. Almost there.
    Any decade now.

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