Forecasting Earthquakes

I once had an aptitude test that asked if earthquakes could be forecast. Fortunately the computer it was on was so slow I gave up before I could fail it. Here is a forecast for the large quake on or about the 7th of May 2014:

On Friday, 2 May 2014 20:24:43 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:

>

> I can’t make anything out on this: http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View though. That system off Cape Horn is spectacular. And has three “rat-running” little Lows, each the size of a decent storm system everywhere else on the planet.
>
> Buckle up. And tie on your hat.
There is major earthquake due on late Tuesday or Wednesday with the aftershocks (so called) moving away to the east (though cyclones can only go that way can’t they? so maybe not…) Obviously with the counter-current they are forced the other way wherever the epicentre is but I don’t know anything about that.
I mislaid or neglected collecting yesterday’s North Atlantic. I was too tired to check. What could pass at the time of writing (3 May 2014) for a tropical storm harmonic if it wasn’t for all the mice in it (instead of those volcanic thingies I have yet to give a name to) is the first phenomenon I ever linked to earthquakes.

Quite brings back some of the very few old memories I feel proud of. Less compelling: NAEFS is back online.
No sign of the earthquake on that but there looks to be plenty just off the chart. Take a look at that anticyclone in the Gulf of Mexico too:
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html
(The charts concerned are reproduced at the bottom of this crib from Usenet.)
Which brings us back to the Australian charts.
A jet of precipitation goes straight to the Antarctic from Africa and builds a deep dark mass on the coast that dissipated without moving off over the 24 and more hours. I am pretty certain that means a long series of major shocks.
ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage

More circumstantial evidence is in the missing tropical storms, and the fact that the timing coincides with the end of the phase. (I said that without looking. But check it out for yourselves:
Apr 29  06:14 A   May  7  03:15
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html)

Good old Weatherlawyer. Gets it right again.
I love being me.
I hope god doesn’t get tired of my idiosyncrasies. I’m having too much fun to die now.
(Some money might be nice though. (I wouldn’t know.))

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html :

ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage

Which brings us to the NAEFS. It was down for two days with no explanation and is now up again with no explanation.

ImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImageImage

I have reproduced all the charts form the various sites so you can have as much information as I did. The actual charts you might consider are for the likely time period. (So difficult to give reasonable times for and we are a long way to go before we can guess locations.) Don’t be put off by how daunting they look.

It really does get easier as the light dawns.

 

 

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