Some links… And what to do with them.

Meteorology is at last recognising teleconnections. But only across oceans; nothing likely to account for the relationship of weather and earthquakes and volcanoes in the next 2 or 3 years.

http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/eq/latest/index_EN?list=w

Slightly easier and a LOT less noisy than the NEIC. Apparently the USA has got onto the JavaScript addiction that us Linux users have been steering clear of because of its links with criminal activity such as data mining gangs like the NSA.

Not that there is any safety in the self congratulatory smugness of Linux. Heartbleeding our activities has seen to that. There is no excuse for smugness. It is a ceiling that has beset scientific research through the ages. One only has to remember Kopernik and Galileo trying to crash their systems into reality to see how pervasive a daft idea can be.

Some poor buggers even managed to get the heads of Christian churches to murder them for producing… of all things: bibles!

 

What you can see straight away on the SED list (and it goes back several years -300 quakes at a time at the mere click of a button) is the activity of tropical storms and volcanoes mitigate the magnitudes of and the number of earthquakes reported.

Whenever there is an absence of Magnitude 6 earthquakes take a more than cursory look at the list. If there are no (or very few) M.5s then you must go to this site:

http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/erupting_volcanoes.html

There are a number of good volcano reporting sites. This is as good as the best of the rest as far as I know. I’d rather use a News search but to get to the meat that means using Google News. Not HTTPS_Start Page nor DuckDuck Go; they are anonymous but so bland you will end up getting all sorts of news in all sorts of languages. There are reasons for shaped searches. (It’s just despicable that Google wants to be god. (And I don’t want to be caught by the curlies when the inevitable reaction gets equal and opposite.))

The other one to watch are actually a number of sites. I will show you them (in no particular order.) I have them set to open in this order so I can close some of them immediately I have seen them and thus have less clutter in my tabs:

http://www.disaster-report.com/ Hardly the first past the post with news but  a good back-up

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/today.html A click of a button takes you back one day at a time.

This is a chart worth saving as there is quite a lot of background to the formation of tornadoes that should be described but is largely ignored by meteorologists. I will detail some of it later.

http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php I have just discovered this site. Not sure I will keep it in my first choice.

I was searching for charts showing how Amanda changed into Boris and how Boris is going to get into the North Atlantic in a day or so. The charts are actually from Weather Underground and caused me to open a blog on there. I will explain that on a different thread. Later. (Very much later.)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc This one for obvious reasons. It opens in the Pacific first for me.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/?select1=Unified%20Surface%20Analysis&select2=UA_Entire&select3=3&select4=normal&select6=Script Annoying titles to the charts means they are difficult to save in sequence.

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg These two are from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre

The JTWC is the US military’s warning system for tropical storms outside North American waters. Not a part of the World Meteorological Organisation’s network (that job belongs to NOAA) damned great site though, overall.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html It may miss tornado set-ups OPC catches.

Both the US and the British versions catch most tele-connection issues. At the time of writing, the large cyclone forecast in both sites is showing that a tropical storm of short duration is pending. The Met Office one has useful frontal systems for forecasting volcanic activity.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html There is another link I should follow:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1401969600 all the more so in light of the occasional correction the first one carries as is available for perusal on the t+48 hour forecast on the former on this day 6 June 2014 (not sure about the latter -I never look at it.)

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/ The US analyses of the North Atlantic and North Pacific can be found here.

I generaly tend to ignore these as they are a pain to collect despite the fact the Pacific one (in particular) is extremely informative. I’m always pleasantly surprised with them when I do go for them though. (Of which more later.)

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View An amazing amount of information on this one.

The BoM chart is composed with very little “good old-fashioned” data and almost no human conflict to the computer models used. The disposition and tone as well as the distance from the Antarctic shore of the cyclones reveal the likelihood of earthquakes of large magnitude and/or tornado -volcanic activity. The various other “set-outs” of the isobar arrangements tell the general set-up of systems in the northern hemisphere (large cyclonic and anticyclonic or small cyclonic and anticyclonic systems) tropical storms and the likelihood of blocking highs.

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html The North American forecast.

This is composed of data from Mexico, USA and Canada. The charts are a composite of spaghetti. The system uses many varieties of models and many iterations of the composites. All overlaid one on top of the other they resemble a plate of spaghetti.

I don’t know how they sort them out but the way that Low systems are arranged on the final product (and occasionally the Highs) indicate that there will be large earthquakes if only one chart shows the set-up. At the moment and for the greater part of this spell there are three lows in a row. Several such charts indicate a lot of volcanic activity. Intense activity!

One such chart alone, or one like it composed of highs, indicate a large magnitude earthquake.

I could write a book on all this and dedicate an whole chapter to each of the above sites and still need to cross reference their charts to cover information I’d leave out -or forget.

Amanda (Something from the week-end.)

On 25 May I started posting about the weather spell that is just ending (4th June.) The 25 May was actually a forecast for the volcanic activity I thought would take place over the week following that lunar phase:

May 21  12:59
May 28  18:40
Jun  5  20:39
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phases2001.html

It was based on the North Atlantic chart produced midnight that day (25th.)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html

Busy today
All over by tomorrow with volcanoes in.

Charts ain’t working?
That’s the way to do it. Full frontal schleppage and the bricks are free.

The next day I posted this. It contains a giant error but nobdy noticed:

On Sunday, 25 May 2014 21:47:15 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:

It is still a rain spell (May 21 @ 12:59  (and  May 28 @ 18:40)) but you don’t get a Cat 4 without it finding an anticyclone somewhere -and sharing it with those of us that live on the edge of the world.

The following one is a doubly unstable spell but going on anticyclonic; rather similar to phases at the time of 04:00, 10:00, 16:00 and 22:00 presumably “but for different reasons” or not as the case may be.

There are so few permutations to any weather spell when all is said and done. (If it isn’t raining here it certainly is somewhere else after all.)

So what does the voice of many thunders say?
All over by t+48?
I don’t think so.

If only we could get the friendly bombs to fall on GCHQ and the rats of Westminster. OT a little but does anyone know of any British Prime Minister since say for example Churchill, who hasn’t been the biggest traitor to democracy since the lie was invented?

I can’t help thinking that total anarchy would be better than what we have here at the moment. It works for the Internet after all, why wouldn’t it work on a country full of civilians?

On Sunday, 25 May 2014 21:47:15 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
– show quoted text –
It is still a rain spell (May 21 @ 12:59  (and  May 28 @ 18:40)) but you don’t get a Cat 4 without it finding an anticyclone somewhere -and sharing it with those of us that live on the edge of the world.

The following one is a doubly unstable spell but going on anticyclonic; rather similar to phases at the time of 04:00, 10:00, 16:00 and 22:00 presumably “but for different reasons” or not as the case may be.

There are so few permutations to any weather spell when all is said and done. (If it isn’t raining here it certainly is somewhere else after all.)

So what does the voice of many thunders say?
All over by t+48?
I don’t think so.

If only we could get the friendly bombs to fall on GCHQ and the rats of Westminster. OT a little but does anyone know of any British Prime Minister since say for example Churchill, who hasn’t been the biggest traitor to democracy since the lie was invented?

I can’t help thinking that total anarchy would be better than what we have here at the moment. It works for the Internet after all, why wouldn’t it work on a country full of civilians?

Re: 28 May. 8 18:40
The Eastern Pacific’s first named storm of 2014, Amanda, put on an impressive performance of rapid intensification over the Memorial Day weekend, becoming the strongest May Eastern Pacific hurricane ever recorded on Sunday.

Amanda peaked as a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds at 15 UTC (10 am EST) May 25, beating the previous May record holder, Hurricane Adolph of 2001, which reached a peak intensity of 145 mph on May 29th of that year.

9 days later and 4 decades earlier  Hurricane Ava the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Eastern Pacific peaked at 160 mph on June 6, 1973. May of 2014, 2001 and 1973 had unusually warm ocean temperatures along the path of these intense hurricanes: at least 0.4°C above average.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2685

I finally noticed on the 28th:

oh what a boner!
On Wednesday, 28 May 2014 10:33:54 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
> On Monday, 26 May 2014 10:30:29 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
>
> >
>
> > The following one is a doubly unstable spell but going on anticyclonic
Not anticyclonic. Cyclonic!!!!

Oh dear me. Sorry about that. Boy am I glad only fools and donkeys read my stuff.

None the less:
> > There are so few permutations to any weather spell
> > All over by t+48?
>
> Well it is t+48.
>
> At 40 minutes past or to an hour the timing of the phase could go anywhere. With an hurricane in decline we usually get the wet weather it entails. But this could well be an anticyclonic spell.
No it couldn’t. Not in the North Atlantic anyway.

> The instability engendered with a phase at 6/12 or 3/9 o’clock generally means thunder. And thunder generally means a mixture of high and low pressure systems in much the same region one after the other. This is pretty much how things look on the North Atlantic charts today, Wednesday 28 May 2014.
But the timing brings it nearer 1 o’clock that 6 so it is wet wet wet all the way way way. Sorry about that.

> Nobody has posted any news about erupting volcanoes but the NWS has had acne all over their charts this week:
>
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140527_rpts.html
>
> Not that there were so many tornadoes involved. This spell will have more instability thus presumably more tornadoes. Early April had the same spell:
>
> Mar 30  18:45 so presumably is the prototype for today’s, though a little early in the season but things were completely blank almost between the 1st and the 8th.
This link should have been here:
> http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140507_rpts.html

And given as:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140407_rpts.html
>
>
> Nothing exceptional was pointed out on the Smithsonian site:
>
> http://volcano.si.edu/reports_weekly.cfm
>
> Maybe it is time for a rethink.
I hate rethinks.
Good job nobody saw me.

I also got this one wrong but not my fault this time -which tended to throw me off a little bit:

Look out for Sunday, 1 June.
Amanda is going to have company by morning, according to the BoM charts that means plenty of action and the NAEFS indicates volcanic stuff in the very near future (though the North Atlantic wants another day or so to go for it whole heartedly.)

Personally I thought the weather was already getting cooler.
Look at Sunday and Monday on here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

By 2 Jue I am back on form:

Re: Look out for Sunday, 1 June.
On Thursday, 29 May 2014 23:37:34 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
>
> Amanda is going to have company by morning, according to the BoM charts that means plenty of action and the NAEFS indicates volcanic stuff in the very near future (though the North Atlantic wants another day or so to go for it whole heartedly.)
No idea what happened there. It looks like Amanda is going for the Atlantic. I think that storms in the American Pacific are supposed to go to Hawaii form that latitude. They only go to the Gulf of Mexico if there is trouble in the works. (Bypassing Newfoundland to here IIRC or do they go into the Davies Straight? No idea.)

> Personally I thought the weather was already getting cooler.
It felt like it got warmer last night (2 June 2014.)

> Look at Sunday and Monday on here:
>
> http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View
A contra-rotating system filling the SW quadrant (180 to 100) all the way in to the South Pole.
It has to deal with a blocking High preventing the through flow to the Drake Passage. (Not that an anticyclone could possible provide enough energy to do something as ridiculous as block the passage of a cyclone.)

Blocking Highs are just some sort of description of events that over the decades of ignorance about weather that has become a defacto “belief” or misunderstood explanation.
Whatever the case, tornadoes and volcanic eruptions started up again at the date give above.

The charts involved can be found here:
https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/astralian-charts-for-may-2014/

And now for soe Geo-Biology:

The North Atlantic chart for midnight 3 June 2014 shows the development of a tropical storm. The signal is the mirror of TSs located with the first chart in the Davies Straight.

By noon today on that chart run it is on the point of southern Greenland. Also showing there the Icelandic Low stretches from Greenland to southern England.

By midnight Woden’s day there are two Lows in the N Atlantic making three in a row with the pressure over Scandinavia. By noon the system is all joined up in a synod like the amoeba of christianity that brought so much love into the world from the dark ages on.

Thor’s day the cytoplasm has fully exhibited the reverse of the breeding cycle of amoeba:

1. Amoeba stops moving and rounds off.
2. The nucleus begins to divide.
3. The nucleus has divided and the cytoplasm starts to constrict.
4  The constriction continues to divide the cytoplasm.
5. The daughter amoebae separate.

http://www.biology-resources.com/drawing-amoeba-reproduction.html

With the sympathetic behaviour of the North Atlantic to tropical storms the reverse happens:

1. The component cells fuse.
2. Conjunction unites three systems.
3. The nuclii are separated by as little as 4 millibars -if that.
4. One nucleus absorbs another becoming the dominant centre.
5. The smaller remaining nucleus is absorbed by the larger one.

Part 4 takes place at noon Thursday and part 5 at t+84 noon, Friday June 6th, one day into the next spell.

Which brings me up to date as far as the forum at uk.sci.weather goes:

On Wednesday, 4 June 2014 08:20:48 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:
>
> > > I wonder what this will do to Amanda.
>
> > The same system that brought Amanda has now sent the wave to Mexico. I think the direction for storm systems at that latitude is east to west normally but this system is shaping up to give us our first Atlantic storm if it doesn’t die on us in the next day or two.

Cat 4 Hurricane Amanda 22 to 29 May 2014
Ctegory Date Latitude Longitude Knots
TD 22th 18:00 10.2 -107.2 25
TD 23th 06:00 10.7 -108 25
TD 23th 12:00 10.8 -108.3 30
TS 23th 18:00 10.9 -108.6 35
TS 24th 00:00 11.1 -108.9 45
TS 24th 06:00 11.3 -109.4 50
Cat 1 24th 15:00 11.4 -109.9 65
Cat 1 24th 21:00 11.4 -110.3 70
Cat 3 25th 03:00 11.6 -110.7 100
Cat 4 25th 09:00 11.7 -110.9 120
Cat 4 25th 15:00 11.8 -111.1 135
Cat 4 25th 21:00 12.3 -111.3 130
Cat 4 26th 03:00 12.6 -111.4 125
Cat 4 26th 09:00 13.1 -111.6 120
Cat 4 26th 15:00 13.2 -111.6 115
Cat 3 26th 21:00 13.4 -111.8 105
Cat 2 27th 03:00 13.7 -111.9 90
Cat 3 27th 09:00 14.2 -112.2 110
Cat 3 27th 15:00 14.7 -112.3 105
Cat 2 27th 21:00 15 -112.6 90
TS 28th 03:00 14.6 -112.9 60
TS 28th 06:00 14.5 -112.5 60
TS 28th 12:00 14.9 -112.2 55
TS 28th 18:00 15.7 -111.7 55
TS 29th 00:00 16.1 -111.5 45
TS 29th 09:00 16.8 -110.9 35
TD 29th 12:00 16.2 -110.2 30
TD 29th 18:00 16.2 -109.2 25

>     Tropical    Depression    TWO    02-03    JUN    2014
> Advisory    Latitude    Longitude    TIME    Knots    pressure

Advisory Category Latitude Longitude Date Knots Pressure
1 TD 13.1 -94.1 06/02/21Z 25 1002
1A TD 13.3 -94.2 06/03/00Z 30 1001
2 TD 13.8 -94.2 06/03/03Z 30 1001
2A TD 14.3 -94.3 06/03/06Z 30 1001
3 TD 14.4 -94.3 06/03/09Z 30 1002
3A TD 14.4 -94.3 06/03/12Z 30 1002
4 TD 14.6 -94.3 06/03/15Z 30 1000

> No idea why there is a break in this list. Maybe the storm broached. If so the gyroscopic activity or nutation should have split the convergence into its many parts. That it hasn’t (if the storm HAS gone ashore) makes this wave very powerful.

1 TD 12.9 -94 06/02/18Z 25
2 TD 13.6 -94.2 06/03/00Z 30
3 TD 14 -94.3 06/03/06Z 30
4 TD 14.4 -94.3 06/03/12Z 30

> Forecast

12 TS 15.2 -94.3 06/04/00Z 35
24 TS 15.8 -94.3 06/04/12Z 35
36 TD 16.4 -94.3 06/05/00Z 25
48 TD 17 -94.3 06/05/12Z 20
72 TD 18 -94.5 06/06/12Z 20

> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2014/TWO/track.dat
>
> TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SALINA CRUZ TO MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2014/ep02/ep022014.fstadv.004.shtml
>
> Boris be damned it is still Amanda and will still be Amanda no matter what they call it in the North Atlantic on the 5th or shortly thereafter.
> http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php

Ha!
I said it was going the wrong way:

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/456×343/2xat_ir_anim.gif?1401866241

http://parsonsweather.com/wxtropical.php

(My apologies to Weather Underground and Parsons weather for not getting permission to copy the above but I was in an hurry and didn’t see the link to ask permission from either place.)

Gulf of Tehuantepec (Spanish: Golfo de Tehuantepec) is a large body of water on the Pacific coast of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, southeastern Mexico, at 16°N 95°W. Most of the hurricanes that form in the Eastern Pacific organize in or near this body of water. A strong, gale force wind called the Tehuano periodically >>>blows out<<< over the waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tehuantepec

There are of course quite a lot of other asides I posted to there as well as to sci.geo.earthquakes.

But this is enough for now.

Pretty pictures in the next thread along with a TL/DR explanation.
(Or not as the case may be.)

Image

Australian charts for 29 May 2014

Astralian charts for May 2014

These were courtesy of BoM, whose copyright they are. Permission is given to any reproduction that contains this link:
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

See also their generous copyright permission page here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/other/copyright.shtml?ref=ftr

Also the data is most likely based on satellite imagery. The satellites involved were from the USA (NOAA) and China (CMA.)