I had thought the 7.9 Rat Island earthquake on 23 June 2014 would signal a change in the weather.
2014/06/23 at 20:53. 51.8degrees North; 178.8 degrees East.
7.9 Magnitude Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands
I can normally forecast when a large earthquake is due. The anomalies involved are not exactly “subtle”. I never saw that one coming. It was only today the 1st of July 2014 that I began to glimpse a way around the impasse. First let me describe the impasse:
The Antarctic Oscillation or the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode is the cyclically different sea level pressure in the Southern Ocean. Differet to the one I have become used to. Different from a so called positive anomaly.
When the pressure difference is high, the AAO is in a positive phase and when it is low, it is in a negative phase. The opposite of definitions for northern ocean oscillations.
Positive phases have larger cyclones circulating Antarctica preventing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from approaching the lower latitudes, having a net cooling effect on the continent. These enormous cyclones are built up from warm wet tropical air that comes down through, the surrounding continents and the Mid Pacific. It thus depends on the state of the Warm Pools in tropical waters and changes with the lunar spells.
In about 1990 the AAO became much more positive overall. However there is a safety device in the Ross and Weddel Seas preventing an overload. When the AAO is positive, the circulation in the south-east Pacific is especially strong and sending cold water from the Weddel Sea to the Equator while ice grows in the Ross Sea. Massive water influxes from Amazonia warm the surface of the Weddell Sea where these giant cyclones tend to begin.
Cyclonic weather is warmer than average and depend entirely on the ocean surface temperatures. Their heat provides a pressure gradient all around Antarctica and instead of a flow of tropical water to the lower latitudes the heat is sucked up into the Tropopause. When the cyclones hit the high mountainous shores of Antarctica the outfall puts a layer of freshwater on the brine. Eventually, as the winter season changes around April a change in the global ocean circulation patterns tends to develop.
A quote from Richard Feynman:
“I’m going to discuss how we would look for a new law.
In general we look for a new law by the following process:
First we guess it.
Then we compute the consequences of the guess to see what it would imply. And then we compare the computation result to nature, or experiment, or compare directly to observations, to see if it works.
>>If it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.<<
In that simple statement is the key to science. It doesn’t make a difference how beautiful your guess is, it doesn’t make a difference how smart you are, or who made the guess, or what his name is. If it disagrees with experiment; it’s wrong. That’s all there is to it.
Suppose you [invent a good guess and discover that all consequences agree with the theory,] the theory is then right?
Is is simply not proved wrong; because in the future there could be a wider range of experiments that compute a wider range of consequence and you may then discover that the thing is wrong.”
Bear that in mind as you go through the following composition:
The El Niño Southern Oscillation Cycle is defined as the difference in sea level pressure between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. During El Niño phases, the waters in the Eastern Pacific are warmer than average and during La Niña phases they are cooler than average. This cycle has a period of about four years that has so far defied explanation. Margaret Thatcher drew attention to it in her fight with the coal miners in Britain and since then Global Warming has become a religion to a lot of people who define logic as what experts think.
La Niña events were associated with increased precipitation over West Antarctica until about 1990, after which they have been associated with reduced precipitation. (You can’t have a good religion with schisms now and again.) Also, a cooling of the waters on the Pacific side of Antarctica corresponds to the La Niña phase, which corresponds to more ice in the Ross Sea and less ice in the Weddell Sea.
My advice is to avoid all arguments which are based on small fractions. People who can get upset over a few parts per million or 6/10s of a degree Centigrade deserve to be left to themselves. (2 Timothy 2/23 New Living Translation Again I say, don’t get involved in foolish, ignorant arguments that only start fights. http://biblehub.com/2_timothy/2-23.htm)
Since 1990, El Niño events have been strongly associated with enhanced precipitation in Antarctica. El Niño events also correspond to a warming of the waters on the Pacific side, more ice in the Weddell Sea, and less ice in the Ross Sea.
ENSO and the AAO:
If positive phases of the AAO occur during La Niña phases, or if negative phases of the AAO occur during El Nino phases, then these oscillations are considered “in-phase,” meaning that their effects complement each other and are amplified (i.e. there is an especially large amount of ice in the Ross Sea and an especially small amount of ice in the Weddell Sea). If positive phases of the AAO occur during El Niño phases, or if negative phases of the AAO occur during La Niña phases, then the relationship is considered “out-of-phase,” and the effects of both of these oscillations essentially cancel each other out (i.e. the amount of ice in both seas is close to average).
TRENDS IN DIFFERENT SEGMENTS OF THE ANTARCTIC ICE
How much ice the Antarctic Ice Sheets hold is affected by two competing processes: the discharge of ice into the ocean and the accumulation of snowfall in the Continent’s interior. When ice flows into the sea, it generally flows in ice streams, or currents of ice that flow several times faster than the ice that surrounds them. Atmospheric warming has generally corresponded to an increase in
the ice that flows into the Ocean and an increase in snowfall.
Although there has been no one around to measure these things before the 19th century and the ice-sheets move in a non linear fashion with as yet unexplored thermo-baric processes, shedding many thousands of millions of tons of ice into the sea and an unknown quantity to the atmosphere every year; the East Antarctic Ice Sheet has existed for 35-40 million years and has been stable for at least three million years (for a subjective value of stable.)
Most of this sheet is above sea level. Here, increases in the amount of melting over the past decade have been offset by increases in precipitation, and no net loss of ice has occurred.
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is much younger than the East Sheet and has fluctuated in size considerably over the past three million years. There has been a 59 percent acceleration of ice sheet loss in this region in the past decade, and it is now losing about 132 thousand million tons of ice each year. It takes about 700 gigatons of water to raise global sea levels one-sixteenth of an inch, and global sea levels are rising at a rate of 1.3 inches per decade. (Presuming allowances have been made for total ocean volume temperatures, the unregulated draining of aquifers, lakes and seas and the unmitigated removal of forest?)
Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet:
Between 1980 and 2005, the Antarctic Peninsula warmed faster than any other place on Earth The past decade has seen a 140 percent acceleration in the rate of ice sheet loss, and the Peninsula is now losing 60 gigatons of ice each year.
During the winter (northern hemisphere summer) approximately 6.9 million square miles of the Southern Ocean are covered by ice. By the end of the summer (northern hemisphere winter), this ice shrinks to an area of about 1.1 million square miles. In the Atlantic Sector (the Southern Ocean adjacent to the Atlantic Ocean), there have been decreases in the amount of sea ice, which has been more than offset by the growth in the Pacific Sector (the Southern Ocean adjacent to the Pacific Ocean). Over all, the amount of Southern Ocean sea ice is actually growing by about 5100 square miles per year. While this may seem paradoxical considering the 0.2 degree Fahrenheit warming trend that occurred in the Southern Ocean during the second half of the Twentieth Century, the specific properties of this warming have resulted in a decrease in ocean overturning, which has decreased the amount of heat moving from the deep ocean to the surface.
Currently, the decrease in heat flux from the ocean to the sea ice is greater than the increase in heat flux from the air to the sea ice. Growth in sea ice does not lower global sea levels.
How much the ice shelves melt is largely determined by the temperature of the ocean water that flows underneath them. Because much of the melting of these shelves happens deep underwater, unless the ice shelves actually collapse it is difficult to determine precisely how much melting or growth has occurred. The data from the Antarctic Peninsula, where the ice shelf collapse has been clearly noticeable, shows ice shelf retreat at the rate of 115 square miles a year. This corresponds to a 0.58 Fahrenheit degree warming of the Weddell Sea.
The classical version of this explanation can be found at:
It is a mistake to introduce averages into Meteorology. If you want to know about flowering times and potential harvesting issues, by all means consult a climatologist but statistical methods applied to physics never work properly. They should only be used in cases of uncertainty and not at all when tele-connections have not yet been accounted for.
They should never be substituted for facts.
Enough of the tortuous explanations let’s have a look at what actually happens.
Originally posted on :
Reposted to here for extra security and because of the terms of service for posting charts on WU.