The Hurricane storms in the North Atlantic 1996 to 2013

The storms pose one method of finding out what was going wrong with overall system. Whilst the North Pacific is the first to get the weather from the Warm pools of three oceans, the North Atlantic makes the most of them for our benefit.

2014
1 Hurricane-2 ARTHUR 01-05 JUL 85 973 2
2 Tropical Depression TWO 21-23 JUL 30 1012
3 Hurricane-1 BERTHA 01-06 AUG 70 998 1
4 Tropical Depression FOUR 23-24 AUG 30 1004 -Still Active
2013
1 Tropical Storm ANDREA 05-07 JUN 55
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 17-20 JUN 40 1003
3 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 08-10 JUL 55 1005
4 Tropical Storm DORIAN 24 JUL-03 AUG 50 999
5 Tropical Storm ERIN 15-18 AUG 35 1006
6 Tropical Storm FERNAND 25-26 AUG 45 1001
7 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 04-13 SEP 50
8 Tropical Depression EIGHT 06-07 SEP 30
9 Hurricane-1 HUMBERTO 08-19 SEP 75 982 1
10 Hurricane-1 INGRID 12-17 SEP 75 983 1
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 29 SEP-03 OCT 45 1005
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 03-06 OCT 55 999
13 Tropical Storm LORENZO 21-24 OCT 45 1003
14 Tropical Storm MELISSA 18-21 NOV 55 980
2012
1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 19-22 MAY 45 998
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 26-30 MAY 60 992
3 Hurricane-1 CHRIS 19-22 JUN 65 987 1
4 Tropical Storm DEBBY 23-27 JUN 50 990
5 Hurricane-1 ERNESTO 01-10 AUG 75 980 1
6 Tropical Storm FLORENCE 04-06 AUG 50 1000
7 Hurricane-2 GORDON 15-20 AUG 95 965 2
8 Tropical Storm HELENE 09-18 AUG 40 1004
9 Hurricane-1 ISAAC 21 AUG-01 SEP 70 968 1
10 Tropical Storm JOYCE 22-24 AUG 35 1006
11 Hurricane-2 KIRK 28 AUG-02 SEP 90 970 2
12 Hurricane-1 LESLIE 30 AUG-11 SEP 65 968 1
13 Hurricane-3 MICHAEL 03-11 SEP 100 964 3
14 Hurricane-1 NADINE 11 SEP-04 OCT 80 978 1
15 Tropical Storm OSCAR 03-05 OCT 45 997
16 Tropical Storm PATTY 11-13 OCT 40 1005
17 Hurricane-1 RAFAEL 12-17 OCT 80 969 1
18 Hurricane-2 SANDY 22-29 OCT 95 940 2
19 Tropical Storm TONY 22-25 OCT 45 1000
2011
1 Tropical Storm ARLENE 29 JUN-01 JUL 55 993
2 Tropical Storm BRET 17-22 JUL 55 996
3 Tropical Storm CINDY 20-22 JUL 50 1000
4 Tropical Storm DON 27-30 JUL 45 998
5 Tropical Storm EMILY 01-07 AUG 45
6 Tropical Storm FRANKLIN 12-13 AUG 40 1004
7 Tropical Storm GERT 14-16 AUG 50 1000
8 Tropical Storm HARVEY 19-22 AUG 50 994
9 Hurricane-3 IRENE 20-29 AUG 105 942 3
10 Tropical Depression TEN 25-26 AUG 30 1007
11 Tropical Storm JOSE 28-29 AUG 40 1007
12 Hurricane-4 KATIA 29 AUG-10 SEP 115 4
13 Tropical Storm LEE 02-05 SEP 50 986
14 Hurricane-1 MARIA 06-16 SEP 70 979 1
15 Tropical Storm NATE 07-11 SEP 60 994
16 Hurricane-4 OPHELIA 21 SEP-03 OCT 120 940 4
17 Hurricane-1 PHILIPPE 24 SEP-08 OCT 80 976 1
18 Hurricane-2 RINA 23-28 OCT 95 966 2
19 Tropical Storm SEAN 08-11 NOV 55 983
2010
1 Hurricane-2 ALEX 25 JUN-02 JUL 85 947 2
2 Tropical Depression TWO 08-09 JUL 30 1005
3 Tropical Storm BONNIE 22-24 JUL 35 1006
4 Tropical Storm COLIN 02-08 AUG 50
5 Tropical Depression FIVE 10-11 AUG 30 1007
6 Hurricane-4 DANIELLE 21-31 AUG 115 942 4
7 Hurricane-4 EARL 25 AUG-05 SEP 125 928 4
8 Tropical Storm FIONA 30 AUG-04 SEP 50 997
9 Tropical Storm GASTON 01-02 SEP 35 1005
10 Tropical Storm HERMINE 06-09 SEP 55 991
11 Hurricane-4 IGOR 08-21 SEP 135 4
12 Hurricane-4 JULIA 12-20 SEP 115 950 4
13 Hurricane-3 KARL 14-18 SEP 105 956 3
14 Hurricane-1 LISA 21-26 SEP 70 987 1
15 Tropical Storm MATTHEW 23-26 SEP 45 998
16 Tropical Storm NICOLE 28-29 SEP 35 996
17 Hurricane-1 OTTO 06-10 OCT 75 972 1
18 Hurricane-2 PAULA 11-15 OCT 85 2
19 Tropical Storm RICHARD 21-26 OCT 40 1004
20 Hurricane-1 SHARY 29-30 OCT 65 989 1
21 Hurricane-2 TOMAS 29 OCT-07 NOV 85 982 2
2009
1 Tropical Depression ONE 28-29 MAY 30 1006
2 Tropical Storm ANA 11-17 AUG 35
3 Hurricane-4 BILL 15-24 AUG 115 4
4 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 16-18 AUG 45
5 Tropical Storm DANNY 26-29 AUG 50
6 Tropical Storm ERIKA 01-04 SEP 50 1004
7 Hurricane-3 FRED 07-12 SEP 105 958 3
8 Tropical Depression EIGHT 25-26 SEP 30 1008
9 Tropical Storm GRACE 05-06 OCT 60 986
10 Tropical Storm HENRI 06-08 OCT 45 1005
11 Hurricane-2 IDA 04-10 NOV 90 2
2008
1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 31 MAY-02 JUN 35 1005
2 Hurricane-3 BERTHA 03-20 JUL 105 948 3
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 19-23 JUL 55
4 Hurricane-2 DOLLY 20-25 JUL 85 964 2
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 03-06 AUG 55
6 Tropical Storm FAY 15-26 AUG 55
7 Hurricane-4 GUSTAV 25 AUG-04 SEP 130 941 4
8 Hurricane-1 HANNA 28 AUG-07 SEP 70 978 1
9 Hurricane-4 IKE 01-14 SEP 125 935 4
10 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE 02-06 SEP 55 994
11 Hurricane-1 KYLE 25-29 SEP 70 984 1
12 Tropical Storm LAURA 29 SEP-01 OCT 50 993
13 Tropical Storm MARCO 06-08 OCT 55 998
14 Tropical Storm NANA 12-14 OCT 35 1005
15 Hurricane-3 OMAR 13-18 OCT 110 959 3
16 Tropical Depression SIXTEE 14-16 OCT 30 1003
17 Hurricane-4 PALOMA 05-10 NOV 125 943 4
2007
1 Subtropical Storm ANDREA 09-11 MAY 40 1002
2 Tropical Storm BARRY 01-02 JUN 45 997
3 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 31 JUL-01 AUG 45 994
4 Hurricane-5 DEAN 13-23 AUG 145 918 5
5 Tropical Storm ERIN 15-19 AUG 35 1003
6 Hurricane-5 FELIX 31 AUG-05 SEP 145 929 5
7 Tropical Storm GABRIELLE 08-11 SEP 45 1004
8 Hurricane-1 HUMBERTO 12-14 SEP 75 986 1
9 Tropical Storm INGRID 12-17 SEP 40 1002
10 Tropical Depression TEN 21-22 SEP 30 1004
11 Tropical Storm JERRY 23-25 SEP 40 1000
12 Tropical Storm KAREN 25-29 SEP 60 990
13 Hurricane-1 LORENZO 25-28 SEP 70 990 1
14 Tropical Storm MELISSA 28-30 SEP 40 1003
15 Tropical Depression FIFTEEN 11-12 OCT 30 1011
16 Hurricane-1 NOEL 28 OCT-02 NOV 70 1
17 Tropical Storm OLGA 11-13 DEC 50 1003
2006
1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 10-14 JUN 60 995
2 Tropical Storm BERYL 18-21 JUL 50 1001
3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 01-05 AUG 55 1001
4 Tropical Storm DEBBY 21-27 AUG 45 1000
5 Hurricane ERNESTO 24 AUG-01 SEP 65 987 1
6 Hurricane FLORENCE 03-12 SEP 80 972
7 Hurricane GORDON 11-20 SEP 105 955 3
8 Hurricane HELENE 12-24 SEP 105 954 3
9 Hurricane ISAAC 27 SEP-02 OCT 75 985 1
2005
1 Tropical Storm ARLENE 08-13 JUN 60 30
2 Tropical Storm BRET 28-30 JUN 35 1002
3 Hurricane CINDY 03-07 JUL 65 992 1
4 Hurricane DENNIS 05-13 JUL 130 930 4
5 Hurricane EMILY 11-21 JUL 135 929 4
6 Tropical Storm FRANKLIN 21-29 JUL 60 997
7 Tropical Storm GERT 23-25 JUL 40 1005
8 Tropical Storm HARVEY 02-08 AUG 55 994
9 Hurricane IRENE 04-18 AUG 85 975 2
10 Tropical Depression TEN 13-14 AUG 30 1008
11 Tropical Storm JOSE 22-23 AUG 45 1001
12 Hurricane KATRINA 23-31 AUG 150 902 5
13 Tropical Storm LEE 28 AUG-02 SEP 35 1007
14 Hurricane MARIA 01-10 SEP 100 960 3
15 Hurricane NATE 05-10 SEP 80 979 1
16 Hurricane OPHELIA 06-18 SEP 80 976 1
17 Hurricane PHILIPPE 17-24 SEP 70 985 1
18 Hurricane RITA 18-26 SEP 150 897 5
19 Tropical Depression NINETE 30 SEP-02 OCT 30 1006
20 Hurricane STAN 01-05 OCT 70 979 1
21 Tropical Storm TAMMY 05-06 OCT 45 30
22 Tropical Depression TWENTY 08-09 OCT 30 1009
23 Hurricane VINCE 09-11 OCT 65 987 1
24 Hurricane WILMA 15-25 OCT 150 882 5
25 Tropical Storm ALPHA 22-24 OCT 45 998
26 Hurricane BETA 27-31 OCT 100 960 3
27 Tropical Depression TWENTY 14-16 NOV 30 1004
28 Tropical Storm GAMMA 18-21 NOV 40 1004
29 Tropical Storm DELTA 23-28 NOV 60 980
30 Hurricane EPSILON 29 NOV-08 DEC 75 979 1
31 Tropical Storm ZETA 30 DEC-06 JAN 55 994
2004
1 Hurricane ALEX 31 JUL-06 AUG 105 957 3
2 Tropical Depression TWO 03-04 AUG 30 1009
3 Tropical Storm BONNIE 09-12 AUG 55 1000
4 Hurricane CHARLEY 09-15 AUG 125 941 4
5 Hurricane DANIELLE 13-21 AUG 90 970 2
6 Tropical Storm EARL 13-16 AUG 40
7 Hurricane FRANCES 25 AUG-09 SEP 125 935 4
8 Tropical Storm GASTON 27 AUG-01 SEP 60 991
9 Tropical Storm HERMINE 29-31 AUG 45 1000
10 Hurricane IVAN 02-24 SEP 145 910 5
11 Tropical Depression TEN 09-09 SEP 30 1013
12 Hurricane JEANNE 13-28 SEP 110 3
13 Hurricane KARL 16-24 SEP 120 938 4
14 Hurricane LISA 19 SEP-03 OCT 65 987 1
15 Tropical Storm MATTHEW 08-10 OCT 40 997
16 Tropical Storm NICOLE 10-11 OCT 45 988
17 Tropical Storm OTTO 30 NOV-02 DEC 45 993
2003
1 Tropical Storm ANA 21-24 APR 45 996
2 Tropical Depression TWO 11-12 JUN 30 1008
3 Tropical Storm BILL 29 JUN-01 JUL 50 997
4 Hurricane CLAUDETTE 08-16 JUL 70 981 1
5 Hurricane DANNY 16-20 JUL 65 1005 1
6 Tropical Depression SIX 19-21 JUL 30 1008
7 Tropical Depression SEVEN 25-26 JUL 30 1016
8 Hurricane ERIKA 14-17 AUG 65 987 1
9 Tropical Depression NINE 21-22 AUG 30 1008
10 Hurricane FABIAN 27 AUG-08 SEP 125 939 4
11 Tropical Storm GRACE 30-31 AUG 35 1007
12 Tropical Storm HENRI 03-08 SEP 45 997
13 Hurricane ISABEL 06-19 SEP 140 920 5
14 Tropical Depression FOURTE 08-10 SEP 30
15 Hurricane JUAN 25-29 SEP 90 970 2
16 Hurricane KATE 25 SEP-07 OCT 110 952 3
17 Tropical Storm LARRY 02-06 OCT 50 993
18 Tropical Storm MINDY 10-14 OCT 40 1002
19 Tropical Storm NICHOLAS 13-23 OCT 60 990
20 Tropical Storm ODETTE 04-07 DEC 55
2002
1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 14-16 JUL 50 997
2 Tropical Storm BERTHA 04-09 AUG 35 1008
3 Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL 05-08 AUG 40 999
4 Tropical Storm DOLLY 29 AUG-04 SEP 55 994
5 Tropical Storm EDOUARD 01-06 SEP 55 1002
6 Tropical Storm FAY 05-08 SEP 50 998
7 Tropical Depression SEVEN 07-08 SEP 30 1009
8 Hurricane GUSTAV 08-12 SEP 80 960 1
9 Tropical Storm HANNA 12-14 SEP 45 1001
10 Hurricane ISIDORE 14-26 SEP 110 934 3
11 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE 17-19 SEP 50 1004
12 Hurricane KYLE 20 SEP-12 OCT 75 980 1
13 Hurricane LILI 21 SEP-04 OCT 125 938 4
14 Tropical Depression FOURTE 14-16 OCT 30 1002
2001
1 Tropical Storm ALLISON 05-06 JUN 50 1002
2 Tropical Depression TWO 12-12 JUL 25 1011
3 Tropical Storm BARRY 02-06 AUG 60 990
4 Tropical Storm CHANTAL 15-22 AUG 60 994
5 Tropical Storm DEAN 22-28 AUG 60 992
6 Hurricane ERIN 01-15 SEP 105 969 3
7 Hurricane FELIX 07-19 SEP 100 965 3
8 Hurricane GABRIELLE 11-19 SEP 70 975 1
9 Tropical Depression NINE 19-20 SEP 30 1005
10 Hurricane HUMBERTO 21-27 SEP 90 970 2
11 Hurricane IRIS 04-09 OCT 125 950 4
12 Tropical Storm JERRY 06-08 OCT 45 1003
13 Hurricane KAREN 12-15 OCT 70 982 1
14 Tropical Storm LORENZO 27-31 OCT 35 1007
15 Hurricane MICHELLE 29 OCT-06 NOV 120 933 4
16 Hurricane NOEL 05-06 NOV 65 984 1
17 Hurricane OLGA 24 NOV-04 DEC 80 973 1
2000
1 Tropical Depression ONE 07-08 JUN 25 1008
2 Tropical Depression TWO 24-25 JUN 30 1006
3 Hurricane ALBERTO 04-23 AUG 110 950 3
4 Tropical Depression FOUR 09-11 AUG 30 1009
5 Tropical Storm BERYL 13-15 AUG 45 1007
6 Tropical Storm CHRIS 18-19 AUG 35 1005
7 Hurricane DEBBY 19-24 AUG 65 1
8 Tropical Storm ERNESTO 02-03 SEP 35 1005
9 Tropical Depression NINE 09-09 SEP 30
10 Hurricane FLORENCE 11-17 SEP 70 985 1
11 Hurricane GORDON 14-18 SEP 65 981 1
12 Tropical Storm HELENE 15-22 SEP 55 996
13 Hurricane ISAAC 21 SEP-01 OCT 120 943 4
14 Hurricane JOYCE 25 SEP-02 OCT 80 976 1
15 Hurricane KEITH 28 SEP-06 OCT 115 942 4
16 Tropical Storm LESLIE 05-07 OCT 35 1006
17 Hurricane MICHAEL 17-20 OCT 85 965 2
18 Tropical Storm NADINE 19-22 OCT 50
1999
1 Tropical Storm ARLENE 11-18 JUN 50 1000
2 Tropical Depression TWO 03-03 JUL 30 1004
3 Hurricane BRET 18-23 AUG 120 945 4
4 Hurricane CINDY 19-31 AUG 120 944 4
5 Hurricane DENNIS 24 AUG-05 SEP 90 2
6 Tropical Storm EMILY 24-28 AUG 55 1004
7 Tropical Depression SEVEN 05-07 SEP 30 1005
8 Hurricane FLOYD 07-17 SEP 135 921 4
9 Hurricane GERT 11-23 SEP 130 930 4
10 Tropical Storm HARVEY 19-22 SEP 50 995
11 Tropical Depression ELEVEN 04-06 OCT 30 4
12 Tropical Depression TWELVE 06-08 OCT 30 1007
13 Hurricane IRENE 13-19 OCT 90 958 2
14 Hurricane JOSE 17-25 OCT 85 977 2
15 Tropical Storm KATRINA 28 OCT-01 NOV 35 999
16 Hurricane LENNY 13-21 NOV 130 929 4
1998
1 Tropical Storm ALEX 27 JUL-03 AUG 45 1000
2 Hurricane BONNIE 19-30 AUG 100 954 3
3 Tropical Storm CHARLEY 21-22 AUG 50 1003
4 Hurricane DANIELLE 24 AUG-03 SEP 90 955 2
5 Hurricane EARL 31 AUG-03 SEP 85 986 2
6 Tropical Storm FRANCES 08-12 SEP 55 990
7 Hurricane GEORGES 15-29 SEP 130 938 4
8 Tropical Storm HERMINE 17-20 SEP 40 999
9 Hurricane IVAN 20-27 SEP 80 975 1
10 Hurricane JEANNE 21 SEP-01 OCT 90 970 2
11 Hurricane KARL 23-28 SEP 90 970 2
12 Hurricane LISA 05-09 OCT 65 987 1
13 Hurricane MITCH 22 OCT-05 NOV 155 5
14 Hurricane NICOLE 24 NOV-01 DEC 75 979 1
1997
1 Tropical Storm ANA 30 JUN-04 JUL 40 1000
2 Hurricane BILL 11 JUL-13 JUL 65 987 1
3 Tropical Storm CLAUDETTE 13-16 JUL 40 1003
4 Hurricane DANNY 16-26 JUL 70 1
5 Tropical Depression FIVE 17-19 JUL 30 1008
6 Hurricane ERIKA 03-15 SEP 110 946 3
7 Tropical Storm FABIAN 07-08 OCT 40 1003
8 Tropical Storm GRACE 16-17 OCT 40 999
1996
1 Tropical Storm ARTHUR 17-20 JUN 35 1004
2 Hurricane BERTHA 05-14 JUL 100 960 3
3 Hurricane CESAR 25-28 JUL 70 987 1
4 Hurricane DOLLY 19-23 AUG 70 987 1
5 Hurricane EDOUARD 21 AUG-03 SEP 125 934 4
6 Hurricane FRAN 24 AUG-06 SEP 100 946 3
7 Tropical Storm GUSTAV 27 AUG-02 SEP 40 1003
8 Hurricane HORTENSE 04-15 SEP 120 935 4
9 Hurricane ISIDORE 24 SEP-01 OCT 100 960 3
10 Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE 04-08 OCT 60 981
11 Tropical Storm KYLE 11-12 OCT 45
12 Hurricane LILI 15-27 OCT 100 960 3
13 Hurricane MARCO 18-26 NOV 65 985 1

It is impossible to make out anything as a tend in these tables yet the likelihood of severe storms depends on lunar declinations. The reason they are so mixed up is that they spell of weather involved in their growth is also dependent on the time of the phase.

The lunar declination has the most effect on a continent of sea that is entirely surrounded equi-potentially by the same geography. Antarctica for instance, is an almost circular land mass centred on the South Pole and all its surrounding environment is wide open water except for the tip of South America.

It’s daily rotation, day or night, winter or summer, feeds into the matrix exactly the same input. This is not true for Australia, South America and Africa. It is virtually the same in the Arctic too but less archetypically. (It is interesting that such balance would lead to bitterly cold climates.)

Why is the North Atlantic a better sounding board than the North Pacific?

The Pacific is so wide the acoustics permit storms all the year through. Coastlines in the Atlantic are so close together some stretches are natural breeding grounds for cyclones. The picture is the same for Antarctic waters where the distances between Landmasses though on a different scale harbour storms of the same or corresponding frequency.

When storms fail to arrive in the Atlantic Hurricane season there is usually something else going on in the mix. Whatever that may be remains for future research. I have doe a lot of it but it all wants clearer analysis than I am capable of.

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Analysis charts and the difficulty of telling the difference between tornadoes and volcanoes

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/

You want the “Pacific Products” page and select the charts for the “North Pacific Surface Analysis”.

Next choose the 21 day loop (at the time of writing it is still on the 7 day loop, if your connection is a little slow but you aren’t.)

If you are running Linux select the Javascript application. Choose next how you want the thing to run. I choose display loop on the same page as it is easier to operate and save to my folders.

17 to 23 August 2014.OPC_PACRight; to business:

What you see as 21 August approaches is a modest anomaly.
Ordinarily the Gulf of Alaska houses the Aleutian Lows before they go ashore to water North America. With an extensive Antarctic ice sheet the surface pressures are not very different for Lows and Highs.

In northern waters pressure differentials can be quite striking. In the charts showing at present, a sea surface pressure of 1016 millibars constitutes a cyclone and one of 1028 mb an anticyclone.

Now look at the blocked situation on the west coast of North America. When a Low pushes through two fairly far apart anticyclones, tornadoes tend to dominate the following phenomena lists.

When the anticyclones are virtually connected as is the case with the egg-timer shaped system off the coast in the link, then the situation is relieved as volcanic events predominate.

On the 20th of August 2014 a cyclone does pass through two fairly widely spaced anticyclones:

20 August 2014.OPC_PAC 06

With the whole of the northern hemisphere experiencing unusually flaccid pressure differences (a period of low “Pressure Gradients”) the number and ferocity of tornadoes in North America is very mild. At the same time the development of Atlantic hurricanes seems to be put on hold.

I really can’t go along with interpretations of the Gilbert Walker cycles climatologists maunder on about these days. The Wikipedia article on the North Pacific systems is almost undecipherable to me. I have the greatest respect for Sir Walker though. His work at the Indian Meteorological Office was splendid:

 Sir Gilbert Thomas Walker, CSI, FRS,[1] (14 June 1868 – 4 November 1958) was a British physicist and statistician of the 20th century. He is best known for his ground breaking description of the Southern Oscillation, a major phenomenon of global climate, and for greatly advancing the study of climate in general.

 But I am seeing something else. The problem is that statistics merely “point towards trends” they do not tell anyone what is actually happening. Climatology has its place although I tend to avoid the subject like the plague. In weather forecasting we have:

Actual data on Analysis charts

“Butterflies” pointing to all sorts of possibilities on Forecast charts and…

Statistics.

Here is the US storm report for the 20th of August 2014:

140820_rpts

August is a time for Atlantic hurricanes not US tornadoes and whilst there is a marked absence of both in 2014, this chart at least shows that the winds in North America in this spell were strongest on the 20th.

You can check for yourself on this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/140801_rpts.html

And here is the link for data on the Hurricane seasons: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.php. Perhaps a more definitive discussion can be found at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

24 August 2014.NHC Four

As you can see, we are only on the fourth hurricane this season. It started in June and runs through to November. Normally we have had half a dozen by now. However it doesn’t fit any particular cycle to only compare data for one phenomena over a number of years; one has to take into account other geo-phenomena, that is the point of failure with statistics.

Compare the years 2005 with 2006 for example or 2013:

https://weathercharts.wordpress.com/2014/08/25/the-hurrican-storms-in-the-north-atlantic-1996-to-2013/

Urbinas Eruption 22 August 2014.

Originally posted to sci.geo.earthquakes:

Slipping into the realms of astrology, an art not too distantly unrelated to dowsing and a part of some ancient idea of geomancy…

That Iranian set of earthquakes fell away when the moon was in the same plane as Jupiter. I have no idea what that indicates but it is a fact that the tropical storms also lost a lot of energy when the moon was in the same plane as some other planets earlier.

IIRC they were inner planets.

Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is actually happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.

Maybe it is occasionally scheduled for some other ocean?

I have only recently realised that this goes on. (And have no idea about any planetary relationships there.) Oddly, I was looking at the ephemerides for tidal waves at the same time as this post appeared on the notice board 14 hours ago.

 ***

On Friday, 22 August 2014 12:12:20 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:

>
> Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.

Actually I was looking at the Hawaiian site watching the forecast, not the analysis.
So perhaps I was being a little previous with the above. Nice forecast though, Karina having rebuilt since I posted the above earlier today and Marie spinning up from a TS to Cat 2 in a day with a Cat 4 on the cards.
Meanwhile:
Landslides in Hiroshima, Japan have claimed lives of at least 39 people and left 51 others missing on Thursday, Japan Today reported quoting the disaster management office in Tokyo.
Heavy rainfall caused landslides in Hiroshima. Hiroshima was hit by torrential rain in the early hours of Wednesday with more than 100 mm of rain per hour recorded, Xinhua reported.
Always a sign of impending volcanics:
Ubinas (Peru): After a being relatively since the end of July, a powerful explosion occurred suddenly at the volcano on 22 August 2014, at 15:36 local time. Ejecta fell over 2 km with an approximately 7-8 km. ash plume.
Explaining the paucity of tornadoes on here.

So here is the definitive signal for a VEI number eruption:
1. Three tropical storms

22 August 2014.TSR Karina Lowell Marie 2

2. Floods and landslides
3. I am guessing this one: Three anticyclones at sea level crossing the same parallel over North America.

22 August 2014.NA EFS

And finally the clincher:
4. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

18 August 2014.mslp-precip

A pair of cyclones the complete opposite to the type of development for a large earthquake. In the above case it is a stream of precipitate falling in a line, tangential to the coast of Antarctica.

In this case it is taking water from the middle of the Indian Ocean to the middle of the Pacific. It never gets there of course touching Antarctica as it does at 180 degree (Ross Ice Shelf.) On a Mercator chart the other end of the straight edge gets to the top centre of the picture above. No idea what it looks like in the round.

I am sure the charts for the previous runs will have shown this was clearly the separation of several cyclones one of which taking off on the outside edge of the second of three. A small tertiary running along the coast. It seems to have been joined by a few friends to date.

The last animation from the Australian BoM was made from the charts of 18 August 2014.

This is the actual wave at the time of the eruption:

22 August 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006

It will be interesting to see if it bounces off the coast. If it does AND keeps its distance from Antarctica until it reaches South America, the result is a severe tornado episode. Maybe even a line storm or something as expressive in the same line. Perhaps by way of an extra tropical going ashore over Europe. (Or I am going to pretend I never said that.)

Edit:

It does “bounce”, they always do.

A situation like that draws out the isobars in super-straight line. When they merely parallel to the coast, they indicate tropical storms.

When they hive off a section of the central land mass it indicates what-have-you in the northern hemisphere, extra tropical latitudes. (No real idea about southern hemisphere stuff as there is so little higher latitude land there and anyway it is all on the chart I am scrying.)

Here is the MetOffice&Climategate chart for this event:

Urbinas and Fuego August 2014.FSXX00TThe first chart is from the 20th and the rest are model runs from the 21st and 22nd August 2014. So they run T+36 valid for 21 August followed by 00:00 to T+84 for both following midnight runs.

Climategate puts out a Midnight and Noon version in a slightly different format, linked to on their midnight chart page. Exactly the same charts but this page only carries the midnight ones. I prefer the way this runs and think the other one looks suspiciously adobephied.

Why the hell GCHQ needs to see who are looking at weather charts defeats my very little brane.