Urbinas Eruption 22 August 2014.

Originally posted to sci.geo.earthquakes:

Slipping into the realms of astrology, an art not too distantly unrelated to dowsing and a part of some ancient idea of geomancy…

That Iranian set of earthquakes fell away when the moon was in the same plane as Jupiter. I have no idea what that indicates but it is a fact that the tropical storms also lost a lot of energy when the moon was in the same plane as some other planets earlier.

IIRC they were inner planets.

Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is actually happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.

Maybe it is occasionally scheduled for some other ocean?

I have only recently realised that this goes on. (And have no idea about any planetary relationships there.) Oddly, I was looking at the ephemerides for tidal waves at the same time as this post appeared on the notice board 14 hours ago.

 ***

On Friday, 22 August 2014 12:12:20 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer  wrote:

>
> Whatever, regardless of that odd fact, I had said that Karina would increase in amplitude around now~ish. What is happening is that in keeping with some unrecognisable law, a following storm sucks the life blood out of the first one and becomes a very powerful one in its place.

Actually I was looking at the Hawaiian site watching the forecast, not the analysis.
So perhaps I was being a little previous with the above. Nice forecast though, Karina having rebuilt since I posted the above earlier today and Marie spinning up from a TS to Cat 2 in a day with a Cat 4 on the cards.
Meanwhile:
Landslides in Hiroshima, Japan have claimed lives of at least 39 people and left 51 others missing on Thursday, Japan Today reported quoting the disaster management office in Tokyo.
Heavy rainfall caused landslides in Hiroshima. Hiroshima was hit by torrential rain in the early hours of Wednesday with more than 100 mm of rain per hour recorded, Xinhua reported.
Always a sign of impending volcanics:
Ubinas (Peru): After a being relatively since the end of July, a powerful explosion occurred suddenly at the volcano on 22 August 2014, at 15:36 local time. Ejecta fell over 2 km with an approximately 7-8 km. ash plume.
Explaining the paucity of tornadoes on here.

So here is the definitive signal for a VEI number eruption:
1. Three tropical storms

22 August 2014.TSR Karina Lowell Marie 2

2. Floods and landslides
3. I am guessing this one: Three anticyclones at sea level crossing the same parallel over North America.

22 August 2014.NA EFS

And finally the clincher:
4. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml?type=mslp-precip&tz=UTC&area=SH&model=G&chartSubmit=Refresh+View

18 August 2014.mslp-precip

A pair of cyclones the complete opposite to the type of development for a large earthquake. In the above case it is a stream of precipitate falling in a line, tangential to the coast of Antarctica.

In this case it is taking water from the middle of the Indian Ocean to the middle of the Pacific. It never gets there of course touching Antarctica as it does at 180 degree (Ross Ice Shelf.) On a Mercator chart the other end of the straight edge gets to the top centre of the picture above. No idea what it looks like in the round.

I am sure the charts for the previous runs will have shown this was clearly the separation of several cyclones one of which taking off on the outside edge of the second of three. A small tertiary running along the coast. It seems to have been joined by a few friends to date.

The last animation from the Australian BoM was made from the charts of 18 August 2014.

This is the actual wave at the time of the eruption:

22 August 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006

It will be interesting to see if it bounces off the coast. If it does AND keeps its distance from Antarctica until it reaches South America, the result is a severe tornado episode. Maybe even a line storm or something as expressive in the same line. Perhaps by way of an extra tropical going ashore over Europe. (Or I am going to pretend I never said that.)

Edit:

It does “bounce”, they always do.

A situation like that draws out the isobars in super-straight line. When they merely parallel to the coast, they indicate tropical storms.

When they hive off a section of the central land mass it indicates what-have-you in the northern hemisphere, extra tropical latitudes. (No real idea about southern hemisphere stuff as there is so little higher latitude land there and anyway it is all on the chart I am scrying.)

Here is the MetOffice&Climategate chart for this event:

Urbinas and Fuego August 2014.FSXX00TThe first chart is from the 20th and the rest are model runs from the 21st and 22nd August 2014. So they run T+36 valid for 21 August followed by 00:00 to T+84 for both following midnight runs.

Climategate puts out a Midnight and Noon version in a slightly different format, linked to on their midnight chart page. Exactly the same charts but this page only carries the midnight ones. I prefer the way this runs and think the other one looks suspiciously adobephied.

Why the hell GCHQ needs to see who are looking at weather charts defeats my very little brane.

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One thought on “Urbinas Eruption 22 August 2014.

  1. From the original title: (Thanks word press for not telling me changing back to the format that shows you what to do next will delete the thread you were writing.))

    I couldn’t see where they had hidden the view post tab when I wrote the first draught for this thread. It ended up as an untitled thread which annoyed me as i was also working on another blog beside it at the same time.

    Also I left out the chart of the North Atlantic that indicates likely volcanic activity. I am about to edit the post to add that. Black transverse fronts appear on the chart before any eruptions are likely but I missed them and assumed it was a blip.

    When meteorologists get things wrong it generally means there will be a non weather related butterfly or two in the mix. The phrase “butterfly effect” is apt, as that is the feeling one gets with uncertainty. Windows users should all be familiar with that as they have been feeding on it ever since they first realised there was an alternative to third party-ware and endless, time consuming security update work.

    (Having said that you might imagine my annoyance with the Smithsonian for getting rid of a perfectly adequate, internationally functional, HTML code database for that Adobe penuried abortion they now have to pay silly money for, to time indefinite.)

    Yer pays yer munie an yer takes yer choices. (Or not, if you use Linux.)
    If I was a United States of American, I’d get a freedom of information response on who paid what to whom for what and why over that débâcle, if I could. I have no doubt acres of “redaction” would abound on the reply if I got one.

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