6.7 Guam. The Mag 7 that wasn’t.

There was a significant earthquake oon the 17th of September 2014. It was advised as a large quake (Magnitude 7 or greater) and revised downwards within a few hours of the first seismographs arriving ate the USGS.

Here are the two charts of it from the NEIC:

6.7 Guam 1 6.7 Guam 2

At the same time there was an eruption at Mayon in the Philippines:

Mayon

Small wonder then that the signals received in the weather-forecasts were somewhat mixed. Here are some of them:

15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.006 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.012 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.018 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.024 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.030 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.036 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.042 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.048 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.054 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.060 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.066 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.072 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.078 15 September 2014.IDY20001.mslp-precip.084I really do like the Australian charts and can’t, for the life of me imagine why the Aussies can’t do more with them. They don’t even release the full run available as data on their site.

What cripples!

The evolution of the carts is virtually identical to those of this weekends (4-5 October 2014.) Here are the rest of the selection:

The NAEFS from the 14th and 15th of September:

2014091400_024 2014091400_048 2014091400_0722014091400_096 2014091400_120

Note how the tongue of high pressure intrudes into the developing line of Lows.

2014091500_024 2014091500_048

The clear line of Lows here is obvious to anyone. $ of them so no denying something blatant has occurred or is occurring.

2014091500_072 2014091500_096 2014091500_120And that is it. There are still three or four cyclonic systems there so all is not spent.

The North Atlantic is interesting:

15 September 2014.FSXX00T_00 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_12 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_24 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_36 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_48 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_60 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_72 15 September 2014.FSXX00T_84Notice the development and erasure of the occluded fronts in the cyclone to the west of Spain. That Low has been there for a fair while. Luckily it wasn’t very effective with regard to mainstream mid latitude meteorology.

Or it would have signalled a large magnitude quake.

This quote is from sci.geo.earthquakes:

Plenty of rotation on the Hawaiian model today and yesterday:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/models/modelsanim.cgi?model=gfs&domain=npac&param=cat&orient=horiz&modeltime=2014100200&level=NaN&gfsanimduration=180&banner=mkwc&imgsize=Large&animtype=flash

Yesterday was tornado laden but the NA EFS had today, tomorrow and the the 5th as volcanic so no tornadoes nor winds for the USA of. Today the run is not so absolute. So it may still hold tornadoes. Worse, it could also house large quakes. I believe we are in for a series of large medium quakes following today or tomorrows events. I wonder if the effect of the planet having pyroxysms reflects mightily on the same having or rather not having seizures.

As a wet and windy spell it might contain a hurricane or so. Probably not a full blown one but there are two possibilities on the tropical outlook:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Only 10% chancers at most so far, with one of them already at 40 N. The North Atlantic harmonic coalesces to a deep Icelandic Low over the next 24 hours969 millibars by noon today (2 October 2014.) The centre does not develop a single focus until Sunday and there are plenty of thunder fronts in the region. so expect the volcanic situation to persist until then.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/europe/surface_pressure.html

There has been a marked presence of those since the sea ice grew so extensive around Antarctica. At the expense of occluded front too explaining the absence of large quakes since the start of the North Atlantic season. (Perhaps not so much an explanation as a not unexpected coincidence.)

An influx from the South Pacific and the River Plate cause a compression of isobars at the junction of South America and Antarctica. This hits the coast under Africa without releasing the cyclone bound there until most of the precipitate is drained.

They go on to signal volcanic activity over the weekend, with the tropical storm situation weakening about Friday but coming back much stronger as the three lows line up in the usual places from Sunday evening.

That situation on the Australian charts should really be examined by professionals. Just more stupidity from climatology taking centre stage I imagine. What are those effing stupid effing Aussies doing?

Occluded front are the lilac “cartoon mouse shaped ” lines on the MetO chart. They indicate seismic activity and the fronts continue (not necessarily as occluded fronts) around the globe to the epicentre of whatever earthquake or set of adjacent earthquakes they occur with.

Thunder fronts are the black arcs at 90 degrees to the isobars. Such fronts indicate volcanic activity.

The charts that I ma after are yet to be uploaded but I strongly suspect that they will be the next ones updated from the websites where I took the above.

God help those about to be confounded.

 

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One thought on “6.7 Guam. The Mag 7 that wasn’t.

  1. I think I forecast this thing:
    ***
    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/uk.sci.weather/y_iU6ZpGu7o
    On Friday, 12 September 2014 10:30:01 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
    > On Thursday, 11 September 2014 18:51:51 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
    > > Back soon with more of the same.
    > Large magnitude earthquakes due. This should be a weather changer:
    > http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/cartes_e.html 2014 09 13 Pressure at sea level.
    Think I spoke too soon there.
    There looks to be a Low off the page for the next days’ run and possibly the day after too. (But the 15th is more definitely a signal for mag sixes.)
    I should have checked out the other stuff and BoM is definitely signalling imminent VEI eruptions.
    Ah well, maybe I should try getting regions of likelihood?
    4 days to go, 2 or 3 if it strikes early.”
    ***
    Meanwhile here is a follow up:
    https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/uk.sci.weather/cRBkIX4j8n0

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